Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

A circuit-based gatekeeper for adult neural stem cell proliferation: Parvalbumin-expressing interneurons of the dentate gyrus control the activation and proliferation of quiescent adult neural stem cells.

Newborn neurons are generated in the adult hippocampus from a pool of self-renewing stem cells located in the subgranular zone (SGZ) of the dentate gyrus. Their activation, proliferation, and maturation depend on a host of environmental and cellular factors but, until recently, the contribution of local neuronal circuitry to this process was relatively unknown. In their recent publication, Song and colleagues have uncovered a novel circuit-based mechanism by which release of the neurotransmitter, γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), from parvalbumin-expressing (PV) interneurons, can hold radial glia-like (RGL) stem cells of the adult SGZ in a quiescent state. This tonic GABAergic signal, dependent upon the activation of γ(2) subunit-containing GABA(A) receptors of RGL stem cells, can thus prevent their proliferation and subsequent maturation or return them to quiescence if previously activated. PV interneurons are thus capable of suppressing neurogenesis during periods of high network activity and facilitating neurogenesis when network activity is low.

Expectation to improve cardiovascular risk factors control in participants to a health promotion program.

BACKGROUND: We assessed expectations to improve cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVD-RF) in participants to a health promotion program. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Blood pressure (BP), blood glucose (BG), blood total cholesterol (TC), body mass index (BMI), and self-reported smoking were assessed in 1,598 volunteers from the general public (men: 40%; mean age: 56.7 +/- 12.7 years) participating in a mobile health promotion program in the Vaud canton, Switzerland. Participants were asked about their expectation to have their CVD-RF improved at a next visit scheduled 2-3 years later. RESULTS: Expectation for improved control was found in 90% of participants with elevated BP, 91% with elevated BG, 45% with elevated TC, 44% who were overweight, and 35% who were smoking. Expectation for TC improvement was reported more often by men, persons with high level of TC, and persons who had consulted a doctor in the past 12 months. Expectations to lose weight and to quit smoking were found more often in younger persons than the older ones. CONCLUSION: Volunteers from the general population participating in a health promotion program expected improved control more often for hypertension and dysglycemia than for dyslipidemia, overweight and smoking.

Extreme self-monitoring, fear of hypoglycemia and obsessive-compulsive disorder in type 1 diabetes mellitus: when less is better

Background: Pre-existing psychological factors can strongly influence coping with type 1 diabetes mellitus and interfere with self-monitoring. Psychiatric disorders seem to be positively associated with poor metabolic control. We present a case of extreme compulsive blood testing due to obsessive fear of hypoglycemia in an adolescent with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Case report: Type 1 diabetes mellitus (anti GAD-antibodies 2624 U/l, norm < 9.5) was diagnosed in a boy aged 14.3 years [170 cm (+ 0.93 SDS), weight 50.5 kg (+ 0.05 SDS)]. Laboratory work-up showed no evidence for other autoimmune disease. Family and past medical history were unremarkable. Growth and developmental milestones were normal. Insulin-analog based basal-bolus regime was initiated, associated to standard diabetic education. Routine psychological evaluation performed at the onset of diabetes revealed intermittent anxiety and obsessivecompulsive traits. Accordingly, a close psychiatric follow-up was initiated for the patient and his family. An adequate metabolic control (HbA1c drop from >14 to 8%) was achieved within 3 months, attributed to residual -cell function. In the following 6 months, HbA1c rose unexpectedly despite seemingly adequate adaptations of insulin doses. Obsessive fear of hypoglycemia leading to a severe compulsive behavior developed progressively with as many as 68 glycemia measurements per day (mean over 1 week). The patient reported that he could not bear leaving home with glycemia < 15 mmol/l, ending up with school eviction and severe intra-familial conflict. Despite intensive psychiatric outpatient support, HbA1c rose rapidly to >14% with glycemia-testing reaching peaks of 120 tests/day. The situation could only be discontinued through psychiatric hospitalization with intensive behavioral training. As a result, adequate metabolic balance was restored (HbA1c value: 7.1 %) with acceptable 10-15 daily glycemia measurements. Discussion: The association of overt psychiatric disorders to type 1 diabetes mellitus is very rare in the pediatric age group. It can lead to a pathological behavior with uncontrolled diabetes. Such exceptional situations require long-term admissions with specialized psychiatric care. Slow acceptation of a "less is better" principle in glycemia testing and amelioration of metabolic control are difficult to achieve.

Quette place pour l'automesure glycémique dans la prise en charge du diabète de type 2 [Which role for self-monitoring of blood glucose in type 2 diabetes?]

There is a sustained controversy in the literature about the role and utility of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) in type 2 diabetes. The study results in this field do not provide really useful clues for the integration of SMBG in the follow-up of the individual patient, because they are based on a misconception of SMBG. It is studied as if it was a medical treatment whose effect on glycemic control is to be isolated. However, SMBG has no such intrinsic effect. It gains its purpose only as an inseparable component of a comprehensive and structured educational strategy. To be appropriate this strategy cannot be based on the health care professionals' view on diabetes only. It rather has to be tailored to the individual patient's needs through an ongoing process of shared reflection with him.

Stochasticity and bistability in horizontal transfer control of a genomic island in Pseudomonas.

Genomic islands (GEI) comprise a recently recognized large family of potentially mobile DNA elements and play an important role in the rapid differentiation and adaptation of bacteria. Most importantly, GEIs have been implicated in the acquisition of virulence factors, antibiotic resistances or toxic compound metabolism. Despite detailed information on coding capacities of GEIs, little is known about the regulatory decisions in individual cells controlling GEI transfer. Here, we show how self-transfer of ICEclc, a GEI in Pseudomonas knackmussii B13 is controlled by a series of stochastic processes, the result of which is that only a few percent of cells in a population will excise ICEclc and launch transfer. Stochastic processes have been implicated before in producing bistable phenotypic transitions, such as sporulation and competence development, but never before in horizontal gene transfer (HGT). Bistability is instigated during stationary phase at the level of expression of an activator protein InrR that lays encoded on ICEclc, and then faithfully propagated to a bistable expression of the IntB13 integrase, the enzyme responsible for excision and integration of the ICEclc. Our results demonstrate how GEI of a very widespread family are likely to control their transfer rates. Furthermore, they help to explain why HGT is typically confined to few members within a population of cells. The finding that, despite apparent stochasticity, HGT rates can be modulated by external environmental conditions provides an explanation as to why selective conditions can promote DNA exchange.

Trends in self-reported prevalence and management of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes in Swiss adults between 1992 and 2007

PURPOSE: to assess the trends of prevalence of self-reported cardiovascular risk factors (CV RFs: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes) and their management for the period of 1992 to 2007 in Switzerland. METHODS: four health interview surveys conducted between 1992 and 2007 in representative samples of the Swiss population (63,782 subjects overall). Self-reported CV RFs prevalence, treatment and control levels were computed after weighting. Weights were calculated by raking ratio such that the marginal distribution of the weighted totals conforms to the marginal distribution of the target population. Multivariate analysis was conducted using logistic regression. RESULTS: prevalence of all CV RFs increased between 1992 and 2007. Also, the prevalence of self-reported treatment among subjects with CV RFs increased, as confirmed by multivariate analysis: OR for hypolipidemic treatment relative to 1992: 0.64 [0.52-0.78]; 1.39 [1.18-1.65] and 2.00 [1.69-2.36] for 1997, 2002 and 2007, respectively. Still, in 2007, circa 40% of hypertensive, 60% of hypercholesterolemic and 50% of diabetic subjects weren't treated. On the other hand, there is an increase of the prevalence of controlled RFs as reported by treated subjects. This was confirmed by multivariate analysis 12.1 [12.0 - 12.2]; 4.16 [4.1 - 4.23] and 2.85 [2.79 - 2.90] for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, respectively, in 2007, relative to 1992. CONCLUSION: the prevalence of self-reported hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes increased between 1992 and 2007 in the Swiss population. Despite a good control of treated subjects, still a significant percentage of subjects with CV RFs are not treated.

Spontaneous cell polarization: Feedback control of Cdc42 GTPase breaks cellular symmetry.

Spontaneous polarization without spatial cues, or symmetry breaking, is a fundamental problem of spatial organization in biological systems. This question has been extensively studied using yeast models, which revealed the central role of the small GTPase switch Cdc42. Active Cdc42-GTP forms a coherent patch at the cell cortex, thought to result from amplification of a small initial stochastic inhomogeneity through positive feedback mechanisms, which induces cell polarization. Here, I review and discuss the mechanisms of Cdc42 activity self-amplification and dynamic turnover. A robust Cdc42 patch is formed through the combined effects of Cdc42 activity promoting its own activation and active Cdc42-GTP displaying reduced membrane detachment and lateral diffusion compared to inactive Cdc42-GDP. I argue the role of the actin cytoskeleton in symmetry breaking is not primarily to transport Cdc42 to the active site. Finally, negative feedback and competition mechanisms serve to control the number of polarization sites.

Measuring individuals' response quality in self-administered psychological tests : an introduction to Gendre's functional method

The functional method is a new test theory using a new scoring method that assumes complexity in test structure, and thus takes into account every correlation between factors and items. The main specificity of the functional method is to model test scores by multiple regression instead of estimating them by using simplistic sums of points. In order to proceed, the functional method requires the creation of hyperspherical measurement space, in which item responses are expressed by their correlation with orthogonal factors. This method has three main qualities. First, measures are expressed in the absolute metric of correlations; therefore, items, scales and persons are expressed in the same measurement space using the same single metric. Second, factors are systematically orthogonal and without errors, which is optimal in order to predict other outcomes. Such predictions can be performed to estimate how one would answer to other tests, or even to model one's response strategy if it was perfectly coherent. Third, the functional method provides measures of individuals' response validity (i.e., control indices). Herein, we propose a standard procedure in order to identify whether test results are interpretable and to exclude invalid results caused by various response biases based on control indices.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: self-expanding metal stents in patients with cirrhosis and severe or refractory oesophageal variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding is very poor when the standard-of-care fails to control bleeding. New treatment modalities are needed in these patients. AIM: To synthesise the available evidence on the efficacy of self-expanding metal stents (SEMS) in patients with cirrhosis and severe or refractory oesophageal variceal bleeding. METHODS: Meta-analysis of trials evaluating SEMS in patients with cirrhosis and severe or refractory oesophageal variceal bleeding. RESULTS: Thirteen studies were included. The pooled estimate rates were 0.40 (95% confidence interval, CI = 0.31-0.49) for death, 0.41 (95% CI = 0.29-0.53) for liver-related death and 0.36 (95% CI = 0.26-0.47) for death at day 30, with low heterogeneity between studies. The pooled estimate rates were 0.12 (95% CI = 0.07-0.21) for mortality related to variceal bleeding, and 0.18 (95% CI = 0.11-0.29) for failure to control bleeding with SEMS, with no or low heterogeneity between studies. The pooled estimate rate were 0.16 (95% CI = 0.04-0.48) for rebleeding after stent removal and 0.28 (95% CI = 0.17-0.43) for stent migration, with high heterogeneity. A significant proportion of patients had access to liver transplantation or to TIPSS [pooled estimate rate 0.10 (95% CI = 0.04-0.21) and 0.26 (95% CI = 0.18-0.36), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than 40% of patients treated with SEMS were dead at 1 month. SEMS can be used as a bridge to TIPSS or to liver transplantation in a significant proportion of patients. Additional studies are required to identify potential risk factors leading to a poor prognosis in patients with acute variceal bleeding in whom the use of SEMS could be considered.