Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

Pom1 regulates the assembly of Cdr2-Mid1 cortical nodes for robust spatial control of cytokinesis.

Proper division plane positioning is essential to achieve faithful DNA segregation and to control daughter cell size, positioning, or fate within tissues. In Schizosaccharomyces pombe, division plane positioning is controlled positively by export of the division plane positioning factor Mid1/anillin from the nucleus and negatively by the Pom1/DYRK (dual-specificity tyrosine-regulated kinase) gradients emanating from cell tips. Pom1 restricts to the cell middle cortical cytokinetic ring precursor nodes organized by the SAD-like kinase Cdr2 and Mid1/anillin through an unknown mechanism. In this study, we show that Pom1 modulates Cdr2 association with membranes by phosphorylation of a basic region cooperating with the lipid-binding KA-1 domain. Pom1 also inhibits Cdr2 interaction with Mid1, reducing its clustering ability, possibly by down-regulation of Cdr2 kinase activity. We propose that the dual regulation exerted by Pom1 on Cdr2 prevents Cdr2 assembly into stable nodes in the cell tip region where Pom1 concentration is high, which ensures proper positioning of cytokinetic ring precursors at the cell geometrical center and robust and accurate division plane positioning.

Immunization with HIV Gag targeted to dendritic cells followed by recombinant New York vaccinia virus induces robust T-cell immunity in nonhuman primates.

Protein vaccines, if rendered immunogenic, would facilitate vaccine development against HIV and other pathogens. We compared in nonhuman primates (NHPs) immune responses to HIV Gag p24 within 3G9 antibody to DEC205 ("DEC-HIV Gag p24"), an uptake receptor on dendritic cells, to nontargeted protein, with or without poly ICLC, a synthetic double stranded RNA, as adjuvant. Priming s.c. with 60 μg of both HIV Gag p24 vaccines elicited potent CD4(+) T cells secreting IL-2, IFN-γ, and TNF-α, which also proliferated. The responses increased with each of three immunizations and recognized multiple Gag peptides. DEC-HIV Gag p24 showed better cross-priming for CD8(+) T cells, whereas the avidity of anti-Gag antibodies was ∼10-fold higher with nontargeted Gag 24 protein. For both protein vaccines, poly ICLC was essential for T- and B-cell immunity. To determine whether adaptive responses could be further enhanced, animals were boosted with New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC)-HIV Gag/Pol/Nef. Gag-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses increased markedly after priming with both protein vaccines and poly ICLC. These data reveal qualitative differences in antibody and T-cell responses to DEC-HIV Gag p24 and Gag p24 protein and show that prime boost with protein and adjuvant followed by NYVAC elicits potent cellular immunity.

Robust parametric indirect estimates of the expected cost of a hospital stay with covariates and censored data.

We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.

The branch-site test of positive selection is surprisingly robust but lacks power under synonymous substitution saturation and variation in GC

Positive selection is widely estimated from protein coding sequence alignments by the nonsynonymous-to-synonymous ratio omega. Increasingly elaborate codon models are used in a likelihood framework for this estimation. Although there is widespread concern about the robustness of the estimation of the omega ratio, more efforts are needed to estimate this robustness, especially in the context of complex models. Here, we focused on the branch-site codon model. We investigated its robustness on a large set of simulated data. First, we investigated the impact of sequence divergence. We found evidence of underestimation of the synonymous substitution rate for values as small as 0.5, with a slight increase in false positives for the branch-site test. When dS increases further, underestimation of dS is worse, but false positives decrease. Interestingly, the detection of true positives follows a similar distribution, with a maximum for intermediary values of dS. Thus, high dS is more of a concern for a loss of power (false negatives) than for false positives of the test. Second, we investigated the impact of GC content. We showed that there is no significant difference of false positives between high GC (up to similar to 80%) and low GC (similar to 30%) genes. Moreover, neither shifts of GC content on a specific branch nor major shifts in GC along the gene sequence generate many false positives. Our results confirm that the branch-site is a very conservative test.

A novel HIV vaccine adjuvanted by IC31 induces robust and persistent humoral and cellular immunity.

The HIV vaccine strategy that, to date, generated immune protection consisted of a prime-boost regimen using a canarypox vector and an HIV envelope protein with alum, as shown in the RV144 trial. Since the efficacy was weak, and previous HIV vaccine trials designed to generate antibody responses failed, we hypothesized that generation of T cell responses would result in improved protection. Thus, we tested the immunogenicity of a similar envelope-based vaccine using a mouse model, with two modifications: a clade C CN54gp140 HIV envelope protein was adjuvanted by the TLR9 agonist IC31®, and the viral vector was the vaccinia strain NYVAC-CN54 expressing HIV envelope gp120. The use of IC31® facilitated immunoglobulin isotype switching, leading to the production of Env-specific IgG2a, as compared to protein with alum alone. Boosting with NYVAC-CN54 resulted in the generation of more robust Th1 T cell responses. Moreover, gp140 prime with IC31® and alum followed by NYVAC-CN54 boost resulted in the formation and persistence of central and effector memory populations in the spleen and an effector memory population in the gut. Our data suggest that this regimen is promising and could improve the protection rate by eliciting strong and long-lasting humoral and cellular immune responses.

Robust vaccine-elicited cellular immune responses in breast milk following systemic Simian Immunodeficiency Virus DNA prime and live virus vector boost vaccination of lactating rhesus monkeys.

Breast milk transmission of HIV remains an important mode of infant HIV acquisition. Enhancement of mucosal HIV-specific immune responses in milk of HIV-infected mothers through vaccination may reduce milk virus load or protect against virus transmission in the infant gastrointestinal tract. However, the ability of HIV/SIV strategies to induce virus-specific immune responses in milk has not been studied. In this study, five uninfected, hormone-induced lactating, Mamu A*01(+) female rhesus monkey were systemically primed and boosted with rDNA and the attenuated poxvirus vector, NYVAC, containing the SIVmac239 gag-pol and envelope genes. The monkeys were boosted a second time with a recombinant Adenovirus serotype 5 vector containing matching immunogens. The vaccine-elicited immunodominant epitope-specific CD8(+) T lymphocyte response in milk was of similar or greater magnitude than that in blood and the vaginal tract but higher than that in the colon. Furthermore, the vaccine-elicited SIV Gag-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T lymphocyte polyfunctional cytokine responses were more robust in milk than in blood after each virus vector boost. Finally, SIV envelope-specific IgG responses were detected in milk of all monkeys after vaccination, whereas an SIV envelope-specific IgA response was only detected in one vaccinated monkey. Importantly, only limited and transient increases in the proportion of activated or CCR5-expressing CD4(+) T lymphocytes in milk occurred after vaccination. Therefore, systemic DNA prime and virus vector boost of lactating rhesus monkeys elicits potent virus-specific cellular and humoral immune responses in milk and may warrant further investigation as a strategy to impede breast milk transmission of HIV.

Robust Nonlinear Mapping of Soil Contamination Using Support Regression

Spatial data analysis mapping and visualization is of great importance in various fields: environment, pollution, natural hazards and risks, epidemiology, spatial econometrics, etc. A basic task of spatial mapping is to make predictions based on some empirical data (measurements). A number of state-of-the-art methods can be used for the task: deterministic interpolations, methods of geostatistics: the family of kriging estimators (Deutsch and Journel, 1997), machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANN) of different architectures, hybrid ANN-geostatistics models (Kanevski and Maignan, 2004; Kanevski et al., 1996), etc. All the methods mentioned above can be used for solving the problem of spatial data mapping. Environmental empirical data are always contaminated/corrupted by noise, and often with noise of unknown nature. That's one of the reasons why deterministic models can be inconsistent, since they treat the measurements as values of some unknown function that should be interpolated. Kriging estimators treat the measurements as the realization of some spatial randomn process. To obtain the estimation with kriging one has to model the spatial structure of the data: spatial correlation function or (semi-)variogram. This task can be complicated if there is not sufficient number of measurements and variogram is sensitive to outliers and extremes. ANN is a powerful tool, but it also suffers from the number of reasons. of a special type ? multiplayer perceptrons ? are often used as a detrending tool in hybrid (ANN+geostatistics) models (Kanevski and Maignank, 2004). Therefore, development and adaptation of the method that would be nonlinear and robust to noise in measurements, would deal with the small empirical datasets and which has solid mathematical background is of great importance. The present paper deals with such model, based on Statistical Learning Theory (SLT) - Support Vector Regression. SLT is a general mathematical framework devoted to the problem of estimation of the dependencies from empirical data (Hastie et al, 2004; Vapnik, 1998). SLT models for classification - Support Vector Machines - have shown good results on different machine learning tasks. The results of SVM classification of spatial data are also promising (Kanevski et al, 2002). The properties of SVM for regression - Support Vector Regression (SVR) are less studied. First results of the application of SVR for spatial mapping of physical quantities were obtained by the authorsin for mapping of medium porosity (Kanevski et al, 1999), and for mapping of radioactively contaminated territories (Kanevski and Canu, 2000). The present paper is devoted to further understanding of the properties of SVR model for spatial data analysis and mapping. Detailed description of the SVR theory can be found in (Cristianini and Shawe-Taylor, 2000; Smola, 1996) and basic equations for the nonlinear modeling are given in section 2. Section 3 discusses the application of SVR for spatial data mapping on the real case study - soil pollution by Cs137 radionuclide. Section 4 discusses the properties of the modelapplied to noised data or data with outliers.

Robust Estimators of the Generalized Log-Gamma Distribution

We propose robust estimators of the generalized log-gamma distribution and, more generally, of location-shape-scale families of distributions. A (weighted) Q tau estimator minimizes a tau scale of the differences between empirical and theoretical quantiles. It is n(1/2) consistent; unfortunately, it is not asymptotically normal and, therefore, inconvenient for inference. However, it is a convenient starting point for a one-step weighted likelihood estimator, where the weights are based on a disparity measure between the model density and a kernel density estimate. The one-step weighted likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and fully efficient under the model. It is also highly robust under outlier contamination. Supplementary materials are available online.

Robust Estimates of the Negative Binomial Model

We consider robust parametric procedures for univariate discrete distributions, focusing on the negative binomial model. The procedures are based on three steps: ?First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed. ?Second, this initial model is used to identify outliers, which are then removed from the sample. ?Third, a corrected maximum likelihood estimator is computed with the remaining observations. The final estimate inherits the breakdown point (bdp) of the initial one and its efficiency can be significantly higher. Analogous procedures were proposed in [1], [2], [5] for the continuous case. A comparison of the asymptotic bias of various estimates under point contamination points out the minimum Neyman's chi-squared disparity estimate as a good choice for the initial step. Various minimum disparity estimators were explored by Lindsay [4], who showed that the minimum Neyman's chi-squared estimate has a 50% bdp under point contamination; in addition, it is asymptotically fully efficient at the model. However, the finite sample efficiency of this estimate under the uncontaminated negative binomial model is usually much lower than 100% and the bias can be strong. We show that its performance can then be greatly improved using the three step procedure outlined above. In addition, we compare the final estimate with the procedure described in

On the robust measurement of inflectional diversity

Lexical diversity measures are notoriously sensitive to variations of sample size and recent approaches to this issue typically involve the computation of the average variety of lexical units in random subsamples of fixed size. This methodology has been further extended to measures of inflectional diversity such as the average number of wordforms per lexeme, also known as the mean size of paradigm (MSP) index. In this contribution we argue that, while random sampling can indeed be used to increase the robustness of inflectional diversity measures, using a fixed subsample size is only justified under the hypothesis that the corpora that we compare have the same degree of lexematic diversity. In the more general case where they may have differing degrees of lexematic diversity, a more sophisticated strategy can and should be adopted. A novel approach to the measurement of inflectional diversity is proposed, aiming to cope not only with variations of sample size, but also with variations of lexematic diversity. The robustness of this new method is empirically assessed and the results show that while there is still room for improvement, the proposed methodology considerably attenuates the impact of lexematic diversity discrepancies on the measurement of inflectional diversity.

Ultra-high Field (7 T) MRI and a Novel Robust Segmentation of Thalamic Nuclei on DWI for Gamma Knife Surgery Purposes: The Targeting of the Ventrointermediate Nucleus

Introduction: Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) is a noninvasive neurosurgical stereotactic procedure, increasingly used as an alternative to open functional procedures. This includes the targeting of the ventrointermediate nucleus of the thalamus (e.g., Vim) for tremor. Objective: To enhance anatomic imaging for Vim GKS using high-field (7 T) MRI and Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI). Methods: Five young healthy subjects and two patients were scanned both on 3 and 7 T MRI. The protocol was the same in all cases, and included: T1-weighted (T1w) and DWI at 3T; susceptibility weighted images (SWI) at 7T for the visualization of thalamic subparts. SWI was further integrated into the Gamma Plan Software® (LGP, Elekta Instruments, AB, Sweden) and co-registered with 3T images. A simulation of targeting of the Vim was done using the quadrilatere of Guyot. Furthermore, a correlation with the position of the found target on SWI and also on DWI (after clustering of the different thalamic nuclei) was performed. Results: For the 5 healthy subjects, there was a good correlation between the position of the Vim on SWI, DWI and the GKS targeting. For the patients, on the pretherapeutic acquisitions, SWI helped in positioning the target. For posttherapeutic sequences, SWI supposed position of the Vim matched the corresponding contrast enhancement seen at follow-up MRI. Additionally, on the patient's follow-up T1w images, we could observe a small area of contrast-enhancement corresponding to the target used in GKS (e.g., Vim), which belongs to the Ventral-Lateral-Ventral (VLV) nuclei group. Our clustering method resulted in seven thalamic groups. Conclusion: The use of SWI provided us with a superior resolution and an improved image contrast within the central gray matter, enabling us to directly visualize the Vim. We additionally propose a novel robust method for segmenting the thalamus in seven anatomical groups based on DWI. The localization of the GKS target on the follow-up T1w images, as well as the position of the Vim on 7 T, have been used as a gold standard for the validation of VLV cluster's emplacement. The contrast enhancement corresponding to the targeted area was always localized inside the expected cluster, providing strong evidence of the VLV segmentation accuracy. The anatomical correlation between the direct visualization on 7T and the current targeting methods on 3T (e.g., quadrilatere of Guyot, histological atlases, DWI) seems to show a very good anatomical matching.

Robust DNA Methylation in the Clonal Raider Ant Brain.

Social insects are promising model systems for epigenetics due to their immense morphological and behavioral plasticity. Reports that DNA methylation differs between the queen and worker castes in social insects [1-4] have implied a role for DNA methylation in regulating division of labor. To better understand the function of DNA methylation in social insects, we performed whole-genome bisulfite sequencing on brains of the clonal raider ant Cerapachys biroi, whose colonies alternate between reproductive (queen-like) and brood care (worker-like) phases [5]. Many cytosines were methylated in all replicates (on average 29.5% of the methylated cytosines in a given replicate), indicating that a large proportion of the C. biroi brain methylome is robust. Robust DNA methylation occurred preferentially in exonic CpGs of highly and stably expressed genes involved in core functions. Our analyses did not detect any differences in DNA methylation between the queen-like and worker-like phases, suggesting that DNA methylation is not associated with changes in reproduction and behavior in C. biroi. Finally, many cytosines were methylated in one sample only, due to either biological or experimental variation. By applying the statistical methods used in previous studies [1-4, 6] to our data, we show that such sample-specific DNA methylation may underlie the previous findings of queen- and worker-specific methylation. We argue that there is currently no evidence that genome-wide variation in DNA methylation is associated with the queen and worker castes in social insects, and we call for a more careful interpretation of the available data.