Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Cryptic diversity among Western Palearctic tree frogs: postglacial range expansion, range limits, and secondary contacts of three European tree frog lineages (Hyla arborea group).

We characterize divergence times, intraspecific diversity and distributions for recently recognized lineages within the Hyla arborea species group, based on mitochondrial and nuclear sequences from 160 localities spanning its whole distribution. Lineages of H. arborea, H. orientalis, H. molleri have at least Pliocene age, supporting species level divergence. The genetically uniform Iberian H. molleri, although largely isolated by the Pyrenees, is parapatric to H. arborea, with evidence for successful hybridization in a small Aquitanian corridor (southwestern France), where the distribution also overlaps with H. meridionalis. The genetically uniform H. arborea, spread from Crete to Brittany, exhibits molecular signatures of a postglacial range expansion. It meets different mtDNA clades of H. orientalis in NE-Greece, along the Carpathians, and in Poland along the Vistula River (there including hybridization). The East-European H. orientalis is strongly structured genetically. Five geographic mitochondrial clades are recognized, with a molecular signature of postglacial range expansions for the clade that reached the most northern latitudes. Hybridization with H. savignyi is suggested in southwestern Turkey. Thus, cryptic diversity in these Pliocene Hyla lineages covers three extremes: a genetically poor, quasi-Iberian endemic (H. molleri), a more uniform species distributed from the Balkans to Western Europe (H. arborea), and a well-structured Asia Minor-Eastern European species (H. orientalis).

A hierarchical approach to model parameter optimization for developmental systems.

In the context of Systems Biology, computer simulations of gene regulatory networks provide a powerful tool to validate hypotheses and to explore possible system behaviors. Nevertheless, modeling a system poses some challenges of its own: especially the step of model calibration is often difficult due to insufficient data. For example when considering developmental systems, mostly qualitative data describing the developmental trajectory is available while common calibration techniques rely on high-resolution quantitative data. Focusing on the calibration of differential equation models for developmental systems, this study investigates different approaches to utilize the available data to overcome these difficulties. More specifically, the fact that developmental processes are hierarchically organized is exploited to increase convergence rates of the calibration process as well as to save computation time. Using a gene regulatory network model for stem cell homeostasis in Arabidopsis thaliana the performance of the different investigated approaches is evaluated, documenting considerable gains provided by the proposed hierarchical approach.

Range expansion of the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula in Switzerland results in local extinction of the bicoloured white-toothed shrew C-leucodon

The distribution limits of Crocidura russula (Hermann, 1780) and C. leucodon (Hermann, 1780) were investigated during an interval of 25 years in the bottom of the Rhone valley above Lake Geneva, Switzerland (total data set: 105 spatio-temporal occurrences, 1137 shrews). In 1975, the contact zone between the two species was situated in the region of Martigny. In 1999/2000, new sampling revealed three results: (1) The contact zone showed an upward shift of about 25 km. (2) In the expanded range of C. russula, the resident species has totally disappeared (confirmed by owl pellets analysis). (3) This demonstrates a dominance of C, russula over C. leucodon. Three hypotheses which may explain the range expansion of C. russula were evaluated: (1) habitat modification favouring linear dispersal due to the construction of a highway; (2) temporal event favoured by climate fluctuations, or (3) ongoing postglacial colonisation of Europe. Hypothesis 1 was rejected, because the progression of the shrews anticipated the construction. Hypothesis 3 received only weak support because range limits of C. russula in the region of Nice have been stable for thousands of years. Therefore hypothesis 2, admitting that ongoing climate change has facilitated range expansion, is the most probable.

Seismic attenuation and velocity dispersion in heterogeneous partially saturated porous rocks

Using a numerical approach, we explore wave-induced fluid flow effects in partially saturated porous rocks in which the gas-water saturation patterns are governed by mesoscopic heterogeneities associated with the dry frame properties. The link between the dry frame properties and the gas saturation is defined by the assumption of capillary pressure equilibrium, which in the presence of heterogeneity implies that neighbouring regions can exhibit different levels of saturation. To determine the equivalent attenuation and phase velocity of the synthetic rock samples considered in this study, we apply a numerical upscaling procedure, which permits to take into account mesoscopic heterogeneities associated with the dry frame properties as well as spatially continuous variations of the pore fluid properties. The multiscale nature of the fluid saturation is taken into account by locally computing the physical properties of an effective fluid, which are then used for the larger-scale simulations. We consider two sets of numerical experiments to analyse such effects in heterogeneous partially saturated porous media, where the saturation field is determined by variations in porosity and clay content, respectively. In both cases we also evaluate the seismic responses of corresponding binary, patchy-type saturation patterns. Our results indicate that significant attenuation and modest velocity dispersion effects take place in this kind of media for both binary patchy-type and spatially continuous gas saturation patterns and in particular in the presence of relatively small amounts of gas. The numerical experiments also show that the nature of the gas distribution patterns is a critical parameter controlling the seismic responses of these environments, since attenuation and velocity dispersion effects are much more significant and occur over a broader saturation range for binary patchy-type gas-water distributions. This analysis therefore suggests that the physical mechanisms governing partial saturation should be accounted for when analysing seismic data in a poroelastic framework. In this context, heterogeneities associated with the dry frame properties, which do not play important roles in wave-induced fluid flow processes per se, should be taken into account since they may determine the kind of gas distribution pattern taking place in the porous rock.

Image quality assessment in digital mammography: part I. Technical characterization of the systems.

In many European countries, image quality for digital x-ray systems used in screening mammography is currently specified using a threshold-detail detectability method. This is a two-part study that proposes an alternative method based on calculated detectability for a model observer: the first part of the work presents a characterization of the systems. Eleven digital mammography systems were included in the study; four computed radiography (CR) systems, and a group of seven digital radiography (DR) detectors, composed of three amorphous selenium-based detectors, three caesium iodide scintillator systems and a silicon wafer-based photon counting system. The technical parameters assessed included the system response curve, detector uniformity error, pre-sampling modulation transfer function (MTF), normalized noise power spectrum (NNPS) and detective quantum efficiency (DQE). Approximate quantum noise limited exposure range was examined using a separation of noise sources based upon standard deviation. Noise separation showed that electronic noise was the dominant noise at low detector air kerma for three systems; the remaining systems showed quantum noise limited behaviour between 12.5 and 380 µGy. Greater variation in detector MTF was found for the DR group compared to the CR systems; MTF at 5 mm(-1) varied from 0.08 to 0.23 for the CR detectors against a range of 0.16-0.64 for the DR units. The needle CR detector had a higher MTF, lower NNPS and higher DQE at 5 mm(-1) than the powder CR phosphors. DQE at 5 mm(-1) ranged from 0.02 to 0.20 for the CR systems, while DQE at 5 mm(-1) for the DR group ranged from 0.04 to 0.41, indicating higher DQE for the DR detectors and needle CR system than for the powder CR phosphor systems. The technical evaluation section of the study showed that the digital mammography systems were well set up and exhibiting typical performance for the detector technology employed in the respective systems.

A generalized mechanistic codon model.

Models of codon evolution have attracted particular interest because of their unique capabilities to detect selection forces and their high fit when applied to sequence evolution. We described here a novel approach for modeling codon evolution, which is based on Kronecker product of matrices. The 61 × 61 codon substitution rate matrix is created using Kronecker product of three 4 × 4 nucleotide substitution matrices, the equilibrium frequency of codons, and the selection rate parameter. The entities of the nucleotide substitution matrices and selection rate are considered as parameters of the model, which are optimized by maximum likelihood. Our fully mechanistic model allows the instantaneous substitution matrix between codons to be fully estimated with only 19 parameters instead of 3,721, by using the biological interdependence existing between positions within codons. We illustrate the properties of our models using computer simulations and assessed its relevance by comparing the AICc measures of our model and other models of codon evolution on simulations and a large range of empirical data sets. We show that our model fits most biological data better compared with the current codon models. Furthermore, the parameters in our model can be interpreted in a similar way as the exchangeability rates found in empirical codon models.

Quantification of 4 antidepressants and a metabolite by LC-MS for therapeutic drug monitoring.

A liquid chromatography method coupled to mass spectrometry was developed for the quantification of bupropion, its metabolite hydroxy-bupropion, moclobemide, reboxetine and trazodone in human plasma. The validation of the analytical procedure was assessed according to Société Française des Sciences et Techniques Pharmaceutiques and the latest Food and Drug Administration guidelines. The sample preparation was performed with 0.5mL of plasma extracted on a cation-exchange solid phase 96-well plate. The separation was achieved in 14min on a C18 XBridge column (2.1mm×100mm, 3.5μm) using a 50mM ammonium acetate pH 9/acetonitrile mobile phase in gradient mode. The compounds of interest were analysed in the single ion monitoring mode on a single quadrupole mass spectrometer working in positive electrospray ionisation mode. Two ions were selected per molecule to increase the number of identification points and to avoid as much as possible any false positives. Since selectivity is always a critical point for routine therapeutic drug monitoring, more than sixty common comedications for the psychiatric population were tested. For each analyte, the analytical procedure was validated to cover the common range of concentrations measured in plasma samples: 1-400ng/mL for reboxetine and bupropion, 2-2000ng/mL for hydroxy-bupropion, moclobemide, and trazodone. For all investigated compounds, reliable performance in terms of accuracy, precision, trueness, recovery, selectivity and stability was obtained. One year after its implementation in a routine process, this method demonstrated a high robustness with accurate values over the wide concentration range commonly observed among a psychiatric population.

Main results of the Monte Carlo studies carried out for nuclear medicine practices within the ORAMED project

The aim of ORAMED work package 4 was the optimization of the medical practices in nuclear medicine during the preparation of radiopharmaceuticals and their administration to the patient. During the project a wide campaign of measurements was performed in the nuclear medicine departments of the collaborating hospitals. Such data were intrinsically characterized by a large variability that depended on the procedure, the employed techniques and the operator's habits. That variability could easily hide some important parameter, for example, the effectiveness of the adopted shielding (for syringe and vial) or the effect of the distances from the source. This information is necessary for a valuable optimization purpose of radiation protection. To this end a sensitivity analysis was carried out through Monte Carlo simulations employing voxel models, representing operator's hand during the considered practices. Such analysis allowed understanding at what extent the range of personal dose equivalent evaluated during measurements can be considered intrinsically related to the procedures. Furthermore, with the Monte Carlo simulations it was possible to study the appropriateness of the shielding usually utilized in these practices.

Quantification of typical antipsychotics in human plasma by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry for therapeutic drug monitoring.

A selective and sensitive method was developed for the simultaneous quantification of seven typical antipsychotic drugs (cis-chlorprothixene, flupentixol, haloperidol, levomepromazine, pipamperone, promazine and zuclopenthixol) in human plasma. Ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) was used for complete separation of the compounds in less than 4.5min on an Acquity UPLC BEH C18 column (2.1mm×50mm; 1.7μm), with a gradient elution of ammonium formate buffer pH 4.0 and acetonitrile at a flow rate of 400μl/min. Detection was performed on a tandem quadrupole mass spectrometer (MS/MS) equipped with an electrospray ionization interface. A simple protein precipitation procedure with acetonitrile was used for sample preparation. Thanks to the use of stable isotope-labeled internal standards for all analytes, internal standard-normalized matrix effects were in the range of 92-108%. The method was fully validated to cover large concentration ranges of 0.2-90ng/ml for haloperidol, 0.5-90ng/ml for flupentixol, 1-450ng/ml for levomepromazine, promazine and zuclopenthixol and 2-900ng/ml for cis-chlorprothixene and pipamperone. Trueness (89.1-114.8%), repeatability (1.8-9.9%), intermediate precision (1.9-16.3%) and accuracy profiles (<30%) were in accordance with the latest international recommendations. The method was successfully used in our laboratory for routine quantification of more than 500 patient plasma samples for therapeutic drug monitoring. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first UHPLC-MS/MS method for the quantification of the studied drugs with a sample preparation based on protein precipitation.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

S-system parameter estimation for noisy metabolic profiles using newton-flow analysis.

Biochemical systems are commonly modelled by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). A particular class of such models called S-systems have recently gained popularity in biochemical system modelling. The parameters of an S-system are usually estimated from time-course profiles. However, finding these estimates is a difficult computational problem. Moreover, although several methods have been recently proposed to solve this problem for ideal profiles, relatively little progress has been reported for noisy profiles. We describe a special feature of a Newton-flow optimisation problem associated with S-system parameter estimation. This enables us to significantly reduce the search space, and also lends itself to parameter estimation for noisy data. We illustrate the applicability of our method by applying it to noisy time-course data synthetically produced from previously published 4- and 30-dimensional S-systems. In addition, we propose an extension of our method that allows the detection of network topologies for small S-systems. We introduce a new method for estimating S-system parameters from time-course profiles. We show that the performance of this method compares favorably with competing methods for ideal profiles, and that it also allows the determination of parameters for noisy profiles.

Fracture Discrimination by Combined Bone Mineral Density (BMD) and Microarchitectural Texture Analysis.

The use of bone mineral density (BMD) for fracture discrimination may be improved by considering bone microarchitecture. Texture parameters such as trabecular bone score (TBS) or mean Hurst parameter (H) could help to find women who are at high risk of fracture in the non-osteoporotic group. The purpose of this study was to combine BMD and microarchitectural texture parameters (spine TBS and calcaneus H) for the detection of osteoporotic fractures. Two hundred and fifty five women had a lumbar spine (LS), total hip (TH), and femoral neck (FN) DXA. Additionally, texture analyses were performed with TBS on spine DXA and with H on calcaneus radiographs. Seventy-nine women had prevalent fragility fractures. The association with fracture was evaluated by multivariate logistic regressions. The diagnostic value of each parameter alone and together was evaluated by odds ratios (OR). The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were assessed in models including BMD, H, and TBS. Women were also classified above and under the lowest tertile of H or TBS according to their BMD status. Women with prevalent fracture were older and had lower TBS, H, LS-BMD, and TH-BMD than women without fracture. Age-adjusted ORs were 1.66, 1.70, and 1.93 for LS, FN, and TH-BMD, respectively. Both TBS and H remained significantly associated with fracture after adjustment for age and TH-BMD: OR 2.07 [1.43; 3.05] and 1.47 [1.04; 2.11], respectively. The addition of texture parameters in the multivariate models didn't show a significant improvement of the ROC-AUC. However, women with normal or osteopenic BMD in the lowest range of TBS or H had significantly more fractures than women above the TBS or the H threshold. We have shown the potential interest of texture parameters such as TBS and H in addition to BMD to discriminate patients with or without osteoporotic fractures. However, their clinical added values should be evaluated relative to other risk factors.