Determination of extreme floods using a distributed hydrological model

Hydrological models developed for extreme precipitation of PMP type are difficult to calibrate because of the scarcity of available data for these events. This article presents the process and results of calibration for a distributed hydrological model at fine scale developed for the estimation of probable maximal floods in the case of a PMP. This calibration is done on two Swiss catchments for two events of summer storms. The calculation done is concentrated on the estimation of the parameters of the model, divided in two parts. The first is necessary for the computation of flow speeds while the second is required for the determination of the initial and final infiltration capacities for each terrain type. The results, validated with the Nash equation show a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. We also apply this model on two Romanian catchments, showing the river network and estimated flow.

Differential vulnerability of neurochemically identified subpopulations of retinal neurons in a monkey model of glaucoma.

The vulnerability of subpopulations of retinal neurons delineated by their content of cytoskeletal or calcium-binding proteins was evaluated in the retinas of cynomolgus monkeys in which glaucoma was produced with an argon laser. We quantitatively compared the number of neurons containing either neurofilament (NF) protein, parvalbumin, calbindin or calretinin immunoreactivity in central and peripheral portions of the nasal and temporal quadrants of the retina from glaucomatous and fellow non-glaucomatous eyes. There was no significant difference between the proportion of amacrine, horizontal and bipolar cells labeled with antibodies to the calcium-binding proteins comparing the two eyes. NF triplet immunoreactivity was present in a subpopulation of retinal ganglion cells, many of which, but not all, likely correspond to large ganglion cells that subserve the magnocellular visual pathway. Loss of NF protein-containing retinal ganglion cells was widespread throughout the central (59-77% loss) and peripheral (96-97%) nasal and temporal quadrants and was associated with the loss of NF-immunoreactive optic nerve fibers in the glaucomatous eyes. Comparison of counts of NF-immunoreactive neurons with total cell loss evaluated by Nissl staining indicated that NF protein-immunoreactive cells represent a large proportion of the cells that degenerate in the glaucomatous eyes, particularly in the peripheral regions of the retina. Such data may be useful in determining the cellular basis for sensitivity to this pathologic process and may also be helpful in the design of diagnostic tests that may be sensitive to the loss of the subset of NF-immunoreactive ganglion cells.

The optimal dividend barrier in the Gamma-Omega model

In the traditional actuarial risk model, if the surplus is negative, the company is ruined and has to go out of business. In this paper we distinguish between ruin (negative surplus) and bankruptcy (going out of business), where the probability of bankruptcy is a function of the level of negative surplus. The idea for this notion of bankruptcy comes from the observation that in some industries, companies can continue doing business even though they are technically ruined. Assuming that dividends can only be paid with a certain probability at each point of time, we derive closed-form formulas for the expected discounted dividends until bankruptcy under a barrier strategy. Subsequently, the optimal barrier is determined, and several explicit identities for the optimal value are found. The surplus process of the company is modeled by a Wiener process (Brownian motion).

ON THE ROLE OF PERIOD-2 IN THE CIRCADIAN AND HOMEOSTATIC REGULATION OF SLEEP

Humans spend one third of their life sleeping, then we could raise the basic question: Why do we sleep? Despite the fact that we still don't fully understand its function, we made much progress in understanding at different levels how sleep is regulated. One model suggests that sleep is regulated by two processes: a homeostatic process that tracks the need for sleep and by a circadian rhythm that determines the preferred time-of-day sleep occurs. At the molecular level circadian rhythms are a property of interlocking transcriptional regula-tors referred to as clock genes. The heterodimeric transcription factors BMAL1::CLOCK/NPAS2 drive the transcription of many target genes including the clock genes Cryptochome1 (Cry1), Cry2, Period1 (Per1), and Per2. The encoded CRY/PER proteins are transcriptional inhibitors of BMAL1::CLOCK/NPAS2 thereby providing negative feedback to their own transcription. These genes seem, however, also involved in sleep homeostasis because the brain expression of clock genes, es-pecially that of Per2, increase as a function of time-spent-awake and because mice lacking clock genes display altered sleep homeostasis. The aim of first part of my doctoral work has been to advance our understanding the link that exists between sleep homeostasis and circadian rhythms investigating a possible mechanism by which sleep deprivation could alter clock gene expression by quantifying DNA-binding of the core-clock genes BMAL1, CLOCK and NPAS2 to their target chromatin loci including the E-box enhancers of the Per2 promoter. We made use of chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and quantitative poly-merase chain reaction (qPCR) to show that DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to their target genes changes as a function of time-of-day in both liver and cerebral cortex. We then performed a 6h sleep deprivation (SD) and observed a significant decrease in DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to Dbp. This is consistent with a decrease in Dbp mRNA levels after SD. The DNA-binding of NPAS2 and BMAL1 to Per2 was similarly decreased following SD. However, SD has been previously shown to in-crease Per2 expression in the cortex which seems paradoxical. Our results demonstrate that sleep-wake history can affect the molecular clock machinery directly at the level of the chromatin thereby altering the cortical expression of Dbp and Per2, and likely other targets. However, the precise dy-namic relationship between DNA-binding and mRNA expression, especially for Per2, remains elusive. The second aim of my doctoral work has been to perform an in depth characterization of cir-cadian rhythmicity, sleep architecture, analyze the response to SD in full null-Per2 knock-out (Per2-/-) mice, and Per1-/- mice, as well as their double knock-out offspring (Per1,2-/-) and littermate wildtype (Wt) mice. The techniques used include locomotor activity recording by passive infrared (PIR) sen-sors, EEG/EMG surgery, recording, and analysis, and cerebral cortex extraction and quantification of mRNA levels by qPCR. Under standard LD12:12 conditions, we found that wakefulness onset, as well as the time courses of clock gene expression in the brain and corticosterone plasma levels were ad-vanced by about 2h in Per2-/- mice compared to Wt mice. When released under constant dark condi-tions almost all Per2-/- mice (97%) became arrhythmic immediately. From these observations, we conclude that while Per2-/- mice seem to be able to anticipate dark onset, this does not result from a self-sustained circadian clock. Our results suggest instead that the earlier onset of activity results from a labile, not-self sustained 22h rhythm linked to light onset suggesting the existence of a light-driven rhythm. Analyses of sleep under LD12:12 conditions revealed that in both Per2-/- and Per1,2-/- mice the same sleep phenotypes are observed compared to Wt mice: increased NREM sleep frag-mentation and inability to adequately compensate the loss of NREM sleep. That suggests a possible role of PER2 in sleep consolidation and recovery.

A joint back calculation model for the imputation of the date of HIV infection in a prevalent cohort.

In studies of the natural history of HIV-1 infection, the time scale of primary interest is the time since infection. Unfortunately, this time is very often unknown for HIV infection and using the follow-up time instead of the time since infection is likely to provide biased results because of onset confounding. Laboratory markers such as the CD4 T-cell count carry important information concerning disease progression and can be used to predict the unknown date of infection. Previous work on this topic has made use of only one CD4 measurement or based the imputation on incident patients only. However, because of considerable intrinsic variability in CD4 levels and because incident cases are different from prevalent cases, back calculation based on only one CD4 determination per person or on characteristics of the incident sub-cohort may provide unreliable results. Therefore, we propose a methodology based on the repeated individual CD4 T-cells marker measurements that use both incident and prevalent cases to impute the unknown date of infection. Our approach uses joint modelling of the time since infection, the CD4 time path and the drop-out process. This methodology has been applied to estimate the CD4 slope and impute the unknown date of infection in HIV patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A procedure based on the comparison of different slope estimates is proposed to assess the goodness of fit of the imputation. Results of simulation studies indicated that the imputation procedure worked well, despite the intrinsic high volatility of the CD4 marker.

MORM--a Petri net based model for assessing OH&S risks in industrial processes: modeling qualitative aspects.

Because of the increase in workplace automation and the diversification of industrial processes, workplaces have become more and more complex. The classical approaches used to address workplace hazard concerns, such as checklists or sequence models, are, therefore, of limited use in such complex systems. Moreover, because of the multifaceted nature of workplaces, the use of single-oriented methods, such as AEA (man oriented), FMEA (system oriented), or HAZOP (process oriented), is not satisfactory. The use of a dynamic modeling approach in order to allow multiple-oriented analyses may constitute an alternative to overcome this limitation. The qualitative modeling aspects of the MORM (man-machine occupational risk modeling) model are discussed in this article. The model, realized on an object-oriented Petri net tool (CO-OPN), has been developed to simulate and analyze industrial processes in an OH&S perspective. The industrial process is modeled as a set of interconnected subnets (state spaces), which describe its constitutive machines. Process-related factors are introduced, in an explicit way, through machine interconnections and flow properties. While man-machine interactions are modeled as triggering events for the state spaces of the machines, the CREAM cognitive behavior model is used in order to establish the relevant triggering events. In the CO-OPN formalism, the model is expressed as a set of interconnected CO-OPN objects defined over data types expressing the measure attached to the flow of entities transiting through the machines. Constraints on the measures assigned to these entities are used to determine the state changes in each machine. Interconnecting machines implies the composition of such flow and consequently the interconnection of the measure constraints. This is reflected by the construction of constraint enrichment hierarchies, which can be used for simulation and analysis optimization in a clear mathematical framework. The use of Petri nets to perform multiple-oriented analysis opens perspectives in the field of industrial risk management. It may significantly reduce the duration of the assessment process. But, most of all, it opens perspectives in the field of risk comparisons and integrated risk management. Moreover, because of the generic nature of the model and tool used, the same concepts and patterns may be used to model a wide range of systems and application fields.

Defective tumor necrosis factor-alpha-dependent control of astrocyte glutamate release in a transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer disease.

The cytokine tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFalpha) induces Ca2+-dependent glutamate release from astrocytes via the downstream action of prostaglandin (PG) E2. By this process, astrocytes may participate in intercellular communication and neuromodulation. Acute inflammation in vitro, induced by adding reactive microglia to astrocyte cultures, enhances TNFalpha production and amplifies glutamate release, switching the pathway into a neurodamaging cascade (Bezzi, P., Domercq, M., Brambilla, L., Galli, R., Schols, D., De Clercq, E., Vescovi, A., Bagetta, G., Kollias, G., Meldolesi, J., and Volterra, A. (2001) Nat. Neurosci. 4, 702-710). Because glial inflammation is a component of Alzheimer disease (AD) and TNFalpha is overexpressed in AD brains, we investigated possible alterations of the cytokine-dependent pathway in PDAPP mice, a transgenic model of AD. Glutamate release was measured in acute hippocampal and cerebellar slices from mice at early (4-month-old) and late (12-month-old) disease stages in comparison with age-matched controls. Surprisingly, TNFalpha-evoked glutamate release, normal in 4-month-old PDAPP mice, was dramatically reduced in the hippocampus of 12-month-old animals. This defect correlated with the presence of numerous beta-amyloid deposits and hypertrophic astrocytes. In contrast, release was normal in cerebellum, a region devoid of beta-amyloid deposition and astrocytosis. The Ca2+-dependent process by which TNFalpha evokes glutamate release in acute slices is distinct from synaptic release and displays properties identical to those observed in cultured astrocytes, notably PG dependence. However, prostaglandin E2 induced normal glutamate release responses in 12-month-old PDAPP mice, suggesting that the pathology-associated defect involves the TNFalpha-dependent control of secretion rather than the secretory process itself. Reduced expression of DENN/MADD, a mediator of TNFalpha-PG coupling, might account for the defect. Alteration of this neuromodulatory astrocytic pathway is described here for the first time in relation to Alzheimer disease.

Temperature-dependent turnovers in sex-determination mechanisms: a quantitative model.

Sex determination is often seen as a dichotomous process: individual sex is assumed to be determined either by genetic (genotypic sex determination, GSD) or by environmental factors (environmental sex determination, ESD), most often temperature (temperature sex determination, TSD). We endorse an alternative view, which sees GSD and TSD as the ends of a continuum. Both effects interact a priori, because temperature can affect gene expression at any step along the sex-determination cascade. We propose to define sex-determination systems at the population- (rather than individual) level, via the proportion of variance in phenotypic sex stemming from genetic versus environmental factors, and we formalize this concept in a quantitative-genetics framework. Sex is seen as a threshold trait underlain by a liability factor, and reaction norms allow modeling interactions between genotypic and temperature effects (seen as the necessary consequences of thermodynamic constraints on the underlying physiological processes). As this formalization shows, temperature changes (due to e.g., climatic changes or range expansions) are expected to provoke turnovers in sex-determination mechanisms, by inducing large-scale sex reversal and thereby sex-ratio selection for alternative sex-determining genes. The frequency of turnovers and prevalence of homomorphic sex chromosomes in cold-blooded vertebrates might thus directly relate to the temperature dependence in sex-determination mechanisms.

Gériatrie aiguë: un modèle d'unité intégree de soins aux seniors [How to prevent functional decline: an acute care unit model for the elderly].

Hospitalization in older patients is frequently associated with functional decline. Hospital factors and inadapted process of care are factors leading to this decline. Acute care units specifically developed for older patients can prevent functional decline. These units usually include a comprehensive geriatric evaluation, an interdisciplinary meeting, protocols for the treatment of geriatric syndromes and specific teaching for the care team. Globally, patients' cares are organized to preserve and improve functional performances. This article presents a pilot unit inspired by this model.

An active contour-based atlas registration model applied to automatic subthalamic nucleus targeting on MRI: method and validation.

This paper presents a new non parametric atlas registration framework, derived from the optical flow model and the active contour theory, applied to automatic subthalamic nucleus (STN) targeting in deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. In a previous work, we demonstrated that the STN position can be predicted based on the position of surrounding visible structures, namely the lateral and third ventricles. A STN targeting process can thus be obtained by registering these structures of interest between a brain atlas and the patient image. Here we aim to improve the results of the state of the art targeting methods and at the same time to reduce the computational time. Our simultaneous segmentation and registration model shows mean STN localization errors statistically similar to the most performing registration algorithms tested so far and to the targeting expert's variability. Moreover, the computational time of our registration method is much lower, which is a worthwhile improvement from a clinical point of view.

Optimal dividend strategies for a compound Poisson risk process under transaction costs and power utility

We characterize the value function of maximizing the total discounted utility of dividend payments for a compound Poisson insurance risk model when strictly positive transaction costs are included, leading to an impulse control problem. We illustrate that well known simple strategies can be optimal in the case of exponential claim amounts. Finally we develop a numerical procedure to deal with general claim amount distributions.

Spinal cord T-cell infiltration in the spared nerve injury model of neuropathic pain: a time course study

Background : Numerous studies have shown that immune cells infiltrate the spinal cord after peripheral nerve injury and that they play a major contribution to sensory hypersensitivity in rodents. In particular, the role of monocyte-derived cells and T lymphocytes seems to be prominent in this process. This exciting new perspective in research on neuropathic pain opens many different areas of work, including the understanding of the function of these cells and how they impact on neural function. However, no systematic description of the time course or cell types that characterize this infiltration has been published yet, although this seems to be the rational first step of an overall understanding of the phenomenon. Objective : Describe the time course and cell characteristics of T lymphocyte infiltration in the spinal cord in the Spared Nerve Injury (SNI) model of neuropathic pain in rats. Methods : Collect of lumbar spinal cords of rats at days 2, 7, 21 and 40 after SNI or sham operation (n=4). Immunofluorescence detecting different proteins of T cell subgroups (CD2+CD4+, CD2+CD8+, Th1 markers, Th2 markers, Th17 markers). Quantification of the infiltration rate of the different subgroups. Expected results : First, we expect to see an infiltration of T cells in the spinal cord ipsilateral to nerve injury, higher in SNI rats than in sham animals. Second, we anticipate that different subtypes of T cells penetrate at different time points. Finally, the number of T lymphocytes are expected to decrease at the latest time point, showing a resolution of the process underlying their infiltrating the spinal cord in the first place. Impact : A systematic description of the infiltration of T cells in the spinal cord after peripheral nerve injury is needed to have a better understanding of the role of immune cells in neuropathic pain. The time course that we want to establish will provide the scientific community with new perspectives. First, it will confirm that T cells do indeed infiltrate the spinal cord after SNI in rats. Second, the type of T cells infiltrating at different time points will give clues about their function, in particular their inflammatory or anti-inflammatory profile. From there on, other studies could be lead, investigating the functional side of the specific subtypes put to light by us. Ultimately, this could lead to the discovery of new drugs targeting T cells or their infiltration, in the hope of improving neuropathic pain.

Group selection and kin selection: two concepts but one process.

In a recent paper, Traulsen and Nowak use a multilevel selection model to show that cooperation can be favored by group selection in finite populations [Traulsen A, Nowak M (2006) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:10952-10955]. The authors challenge the view that kin selection may be an appropriate interpretation of their results and state that group selection is a distinctive process "that permeates evolutionary processes from the emergence of the first cells to eusociality and the economics of nations." In this paper, we start by addressing Traulsen and Nowak's challenge and demonstrate that all their results can be obtained by an application of kin selection theory. We then extend Traulsen and Nowak's model to life history conditions that have been previously studied. This allows us to highlight the differences and similarities between Traulsen and Nowak's model and typical kin selection models and also to broaden the scope of their results. Our retrospective analyses of Traulsen and Nowak's model illustrate that it is possible to convert group selection models to kin selection models without disturbing the mathematics describing the net effect of selection on cooperation.

Debris flows as a factor of hillslope evolution controlled by a continuous or a pulse process?

Flood effectiveness observations imply that two families of processes describe the formation of debris flow volume. One is related to the rainfall?erosion relationship, and can be seen as a gradual process, and one is related to additional geological/geotechnical events, those named hereafter extraordinary events. In order to discuss the hypothesis of coexistence of two modes of volume formation, some methodologies are applied. Firstly, classical approaches consisting in relating volume to catchments characteristics are considered. These approaches raise questions about the quality of the data rather than providing answers concerning the controlling processes. Secondly, we consider statistical approaches (cumulative number of events distribution and cluster analysis) and these suggest the possibility of having two distinct families of processes. However the quantitative evaluation of the threshold differs from the one that could be obtained from the first approach, but they all agree in the sense of the coexistence of two families of events. Thirdly, a conceptual model is built exploring how and why debris flow volume in alpine catchments changes with time. Depending on the initial condition (sediment production), the model shows that large debris flows (i.e. with important volume) are observed in the beginning period, before a steady-state is reached. During this second period debris flow volume such as is observed in the beginning period is not observed again. Integrating the results of the three approaches, two case studies are presented showing: (1) the possibility to observe in a catchment large volumes that will never happen again due to a drastic decrease in the sediment availability, supporting its difference from gradual erosion processes; (2) that following a rejuvenation of the sediment storage (by a rock avalanche) the magnitude?frequency relationship of a torrent can be differentiated into two phases, the beginning one with large and frequent debris flow and a later one with debris flow less intense and frequent, supporting the results of the conceptual model. Although the results obtained cannot identify a clear threshold between the two families of processes, they show that some debris flows can be seen as pulse of sediment differing from that expected from gradual erosion.

Microglia/macrophages migrate through retinal epithelium barrier by a transcellular route in diabetic retinopathy: role of PKCζ in the Goto Kakizaki rat model.

Diabetic retinopathy is associated with ocular inflammation, leading to retinal barrier breakdown, macular edema, and visual cell loss. We investigated the molecular mechanisms involved in microglia/macrophages trafficking in the retina and the role of protein kinase Cζ (PKCζ) in this process. Goto Kakizaki (GK) rats, a model for spontaneous type 2 diabetes were studied until 12 months of hyperglycemia. Up to 5 months, sparse microglia/macrophages were detected in the subretinal space, together with numerous pores in retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells, allowing inflammatory cell traffic between the retina and choroid. Intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), caveolin-1 (CAV-1), and PKCζ were identified at the pore border. At 12 months of hyperglycemia, the significant reduction of pores density in RPE cell layer was associated with microglia/macrophages accumulation in the subretinal space together with vacuolization of RPE cells and disorganization of photoreceptors outer segments. The intraocular injection of a PKCζ inhibitor at 12 months reduced iNOS expression in microglia/macrophages and inhibited their migration through the retina, preventing their subretinal accumulation. We show here that a physiological transcellular pathway takes place through RPE cells and contributes to microglia/macrophages retinal trafficking. Chronic hyperglycemia causes alteration of this pathway and subsequent subretinal accumulation of activated microglia/macrophages.