Impaired left ventricular function as a predictive factor for mid-term survival in octogenarians after primary coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: The impact of preoperative impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) in octogenarians following coronary bypass surgery on short-term survival was evaluated in this study. METHODS: A total of 147 octogenarians (mean age 82.1 ± 1.9 years) with coronary artery diseases underwent elective coronary artery bypass graft between January 2000 and December 2009. Patients were stratified into: Group I (n = 59) with EF >50%, Group II (n = 59) with 50% > EF >30% and in Group III (n = 29) with 30% > EF. RESULTS: There was no difference among the three groups regarding incidence of COPD, renal failure, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and preoperative cerebrovascular events. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was the sole independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR), 18.1); this was 8.5% in Group I, 15.3% in Group II and 10.3% in Group III. Independent predictive factors for mortality during follow up were: decrease of EF during follow-up for more that 5% (OR, 5.2), usage of left internal mammary artery as free graft (OR, 18.1), and EF in follow-up lower than 40% (OR, 4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The results herein suggest acceptable in-hospital as well short-term mortality in octogenarians with impaired EF following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and are comparable to recent literature where the mortality of younger patients was up to 15% and short-term mortality up to 40%, respectively. Accordingly, we can also state that in an octogenarian cohort with impaired EF, CABG is a viable treatment with acceptable mortality.

Predictive value of anti-neutrophil cygtoplasmic antibodies (ANCA) in small vessel vasculitis

Résumé Valeur prédictive des anticorps dirigés contre le cytoplasme des neutrophiles (ANCA) dans les vasculites des vaisseaux de petit calibre But du travail : Les vasculites sont des pathologies le plus souvent sévères et parfois létales ; elles nécessitent une reconnaissance et un traitement précoces. Il est donc utile de pouvoir disposer de marqueurs diagnostiques, et éventuellement de marqueurs qui puissent prédire l'activité de la maladie. Les « antineutrophil cytoplasm antibodies » (ANCA) constituent une famille d'autoanticorps dirigés contre des antigènes du cytoplasme des neutrophiles, cellules clés du processus inflammatoire au cours des vasculites. De nombreuses études ont tenté de préciser l'utilité des ANCA dans le diagnostic et le suivi des vasculites avec des résultats contradictoires. Le but de ce travail a été de passer en revue l'évolution clinique des patients suivis dans notre service pour une vasculite à ANCA et évaluer la valeur prédictive des ANCA comme marqueur de récidive. Méthode: Les dossiers médicaux de 36 patients, suivis à notre consultation ambulatoire d'immunologie et allergie du CHUV pour une vasculite à ANCA entre janvier 1990 et décembre 2001, ont été analysés de manière rétrospective afin d'établir une base de données. Les données démographiques, le type de vasculite (granulomatose de Wegener ou polyangéite microscopique) et ses caractéristiques (organes touchés), les traitements reçus, les dosages des ANCA (par immunofluorescence et par ELISA avec détermination des anti-PR3 et/ou anti-MPO), et l'évolution clinique (récidive/rémission) ont été considérés. La valeur pronostique des ANCA dans notre population a été calculée utilisant les valeurs prédictives positive et négative, la likelihood et les odds ratios. La valeur statistique a été examinée par les tests Chi-square test ou Fisher's exact test (valeur significative définie comme p <0.05) à l'aide du programme GraphPad Instat software version 3, San Diego, CA. Résultats : Vingt-trois patients atteints d'une maladie de Wegener et treize d'une polyangéite microscopique ont été suivis pour une durée médiane de cinq ans (entre 1 mois et 16 ans). La plupart des patients ont été traités avec des corticostéroïdes associés à du cyclophosphamide. Une rémission a été obtenue chez 21 patients (91 %) atteints d'une maladie de Wegener, mais 74% ont présenté par la suite une récidive. Tous les patients atteints d'une polyangéite microscopique sont entrés en rémission et 33% ont par la suite récidivé. Une élévation persistante (définie comme supérieure à 6 mois) des ANCA ne s'est pas révélée associée à un risque statistiquement significatif de récidive (p=0.14). En revanche, une élévation soudaine du taux des ANCA s'est démontrée prédictive d'une récidive (table 3). Conclusion : Durant le suivi de certaines vasculites, comme la granulomatose de Wegener et la polyangéite microscopique une élévation des ANCA doit faire redouter une exacerbation de la maladie et, par conséquent, justifie une surveillance accrue.

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Prognostic and predictive biomarkers in resected colon cancer: current status and future perspectives for integrating genomics into biomarker discovery.

The number of agents that are potentially effective in the adjuvant treatment of locally advanced resectable colon cancer is increasing. Consequently, it is important to ascertain which subgroups of patients will benefit from a specific treatment. Despite more than two decades of research into the molecular genetics of colon cancer, there is a lack of prognostic and predictive molecular biomarkers with proven utility in this setting. A secondary objective of the Pan European Trials in Adjuvant Colon Cancer-3 trial, which compared irinotecan in combination with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin in the postoperative treatment of stage III and stage II colon cancer patients, was to undertake a translational research study to assess a panel of putative prognostic and predictive markers in a large colon cancer patient cohort. The Cancer and Leukemia Group B 89803 trial, in a similar design, also investigated the use of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in this setting. In this article, the authors, who are coinvestigators from these trials and performed similar investigations of biomarker discovery in the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer, review the current status of biomarker research in this field, drawing on their experiences and considering future strategies for biomarker discovery in the postgenomic era.

Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.

Risk assessment of recurrence in sporadic retinoblastoma using a molecular-based algorithm.

PURPOSE: Most RB1 mutations are unique and distributed throughout the RB1 gene. Their detection can be time-consuming and the yield especially low in cases of conservatively-treated sporadic unilateral retinoblastoma (Rb) patients. In order to identify patients with true risk of developing Rb, and to reduce the number of unnecessary examinations under anesthesia in all other cases, we developed a universal sensitive, efficient and cost-effective strategy based on intragenic haplotype analysis. METHODS: This algorithm allows the calculation of the a posteriori risk of developing Rb and takes into account (a) RB1 loss of heterozygosity in tumors, (b) preferential paternal origin of new germline mutations, (c) a priori risk derived from empirical data by Vogel, and (d) disease penetrance of 90% in most cases. We report the occurrence of Rb in first degree relatives of patients with sporadic Rb who visited the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland, from January 1994 to December 2006 compared to expected new cases of Rb using our algorithm. RESULTS: A total of 134 families with sporadic Rb were enrolled; testing was performed in 570 individuals and 99 patients younger than 4 years old were identified. We observed one new case of Rb. Using our algorithm, the cumulated total a posteriori risk of recurrence was 1.77. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first time that linkage analysis has been validated to monitor the risk of recurrence in sporadic Rb. This should be a useful tool in genetic counseling, especially when direct RB1 screening for mutations leaves a negative result or is unavailable.

Treatment algorithm for moderate to severe ulcerative colitis.

The care for a patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) remains challenging despite the fact that morbidity and mortality rates have been considerably reduced during the last 30 years. The traditional management with intravenous corticosteroids was modified by the introduction of ciclosporin and infliximab. In this review, we focus on the treatment of patients with moderate to severe UC. Four typical clinical scenarios are defined and discussed in detail. The treatment recommendations are based on current literature, published guidelines and reviews, and were discussed at a consensus meeting of Swiss experts in the field. Comprehensive treatment algorithms were developed, aimed for daily clinical practice.

Age above 60 years is not a negative predictive factor for combined antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in hepatitis C patients

Background: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral hepatitis C therapy. However, elderly patients often show relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis which is a known negative predictive factor, making it difficult to interpret age as an independent predictive factor. Methods: From the framework of the Swiss hepatitis C cohort (SCCS), we collected data from 545 antiviral hepatitis C therapies, including data from 67 hepatitis C patients ≥ 60 y who had been treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin. We analyzed host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, depression, earlier hepatitis C treatment), viral factors (genotype, viral load) and treatment course (early virological response, end of treatment response, SVR). Generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling was used for the primary end point (SVR), with age ≥ 60 y and < 60 y as independent variable and gender, presence of cirrhosis, genotype, earlier treatment and viral load as confounders. SVR was analysed in young and elderly patients after matching for these confounders. Additionally, classification tree analysis was done in elderly patients using these confounders. Results: SVR analyzed in 545 patients was 55%. In genotype 1/4, SVR was 42.9% in 259 patients < 60 y and 26.1% in 46 patients ≥ 60 y. In genotype 2/3, SVR was 74.4% in 215 patients < 60 y and 84% in 25 patients ≥ 60 y. However, GEE model showed that age had no influence on achieving SVR (Odds ratio 0.91). Confounders influenced SVR as known from previous studies (cirrhosis, genotype 1/4, previous treatment and viral load >600'000 IE/ml as negative predictive factors). When young and elderly patients were matched (analysis in 59 elderly patients), SVR was not different in these patient groups (54.2% and 55.9%, resp.; p=0.795 in binomial test). The classification tree-derived best criterion for SVR in elderly patients was genotype, with no further criteria relevant for predicting SVR in genotype 2/3. In patients with genotype 1/4, further criteria were presence of cirrhosis and low viral load <600'000 IE/ml in non-cirrhotic patients. Conclusions: Age is not a relevant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when confounders were taken into account. In terms of effectiveness of antiviral therapy, age does not play a major role and should not be regarded as relevant negative predictive factor. Since life expectancy in Switzerland at age 60 is more than 22 y, hepatitis C therapy is reasonable in elderly patients with known relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis, because interferon-based hepatitis C therapy improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Valeur prédictive de la surexpression/ amplification de Her2/neu pour un traitement ciblé du cancer du sein [Predictive value of Her2/neu expression/amplification for the targeted treatment of breast cancer]

Her2/neu is a tyrosine kinase receptor which stimulates cell growth. The receptor is overexpressed in about 20% of breast cancers. Her2/neu expression is an indicator of poor prognosis but also the target of the treatment of breast cancer using humanised anti-Her2/ neu antibodies. Only cancers overexpressing the protein will respond to this therapy, but which has significant (cardiac) side effects and is expensive. It is therefore important to test for the overexpression of the protein on breast cancer cells. This paper discusses how this can be done and ongoing research into new therapeutic options targeting the involved signaling pathways.

Testing the predictive adaptive response in a host-parasite system

1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.

Validation of the potentially avoidable hospital readmission rate as a routine indicator of the quality of hospital care

BACKGROUND: The hospital readmission rate has been proposed as an important outcome indicator computable from routine statistics. However, most commonly used measures raise conceptual issues. OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the usefulness of the computerized algorithm for identifying avoidable readmissions on the basis of minimum bias, criterion validity, and measurement precision. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: A total of 131,809 hospitalizations of patients discharged alive from 49 hospitals were used to compare the predictive performance of risk adjustment methods. A subset of a random sample of 570 medical records of discharge/readmission pairs in 12 hospitals were reviewed to estimate the predictive value of the screening of potentially avoidable readmissions. MEASURES: Potentially avoidable readmissions, defined as readmissions related to a condition of the previous hospitalization and not expected as part of a program of care and occurring within 30 days after the previous discharge, were identified by a computerized algorithm. Unavoidable readmissions were considered as censored events. RESULTS: A total of 5.2% of hospitalizations were followed by a potentially avoidable readmission, 17% of them in a different hospital. The predictive value of the screen was 78%; 27% of screened readmissions were judged clearly avoidable. The correlation between the hospital rate of clearly avoidable readmission and all readmissions rate, potentially avoidable readmissions rate or the ratio of observed to expected readmissions were respectively 0.42, 0.56 and 0.66. Adjustment models using clinical information performed better. CONCLUSION: Adjusted rates of potentially avoidable readmissions are scientifically sound enough to warrant their inclusion in hospital quality surveillance.

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.