Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions.

Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions.

Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change between different geographic areas or time periods has become increasingly important in the context of ongoing global change. However, approaches and findings have remained largely controversial so far, calling for a unification of methods. Here, we build on a review of empirical studies of invasion to formalize a unifying framework that decomposes niche change into unfilling, stability, and expansion situations, taking both a pooled range and range-specific perspective on the niche, while accounting for climatic availability and climatic analogy. This framework provides new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate invasions, and may help in guiding the design of experiments for assessing causes of niche changes.

Shift in cytotype frequency and niche space in the invasive plant Centaurea maculosa.

Polyploidy is often assumed to increase the spread and thus the success of alien plant species, but few empirical studies exist. We tested this hypothesis with Centaurea maculosa Lam., a species native to Europe and introduced into North America approximately 120 years ago where it became highly invasive. We analyzed the ploidy level of more than 2000 plants from 93 native and 48 invasive C. maculosa populations and found a pronounced shift in the relative frequency of diploid and tetraploid cytotypes. In Europe diploid populations occur in higher frequencies than tetraploids and only four populations had both cytotypes, while in North America diploid plants were found in only one mixed population and thus tetraploids clearly dominated. Our results showed a pronounced shift in the climatic niche between tetraploid populations in the native and introduced range toward drier climate in North America and a similar albeit smaller shift between diploids and tetraploids in the native range. The field data indicate that diploids have a predominately monocarpic life cycle, while tetraploids are often polycarpic. Additionally, the polycarpic life-form seems to be more prevalent among tetraploids in the introduced range than among tetraploids in the native range. Our study suggests that both ploidy types of C. maculosa were introduced into North America, but tetraploids became the dominant cytotype with invasion. We suggest that the invasive success of C. maculosa is partly due to preadaptation of the tetraploid cytotype in Europe to drier climate and possibly further adaptation to these conditions in the introduced range. The potential for earlier and longer seed production associated with the polycarpic life cycle constitutes an additional factor that may have led to the dominance of tetraploids over diploids in the introduced range.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Novel acid phosphatase in Candida glabrata suggests selective pressure and niche specialization in the phosphate signal transduction pathway.

Evolution through natural selection suggests unnecessary genes are lost. We observed that the yeast Candida glabrata lost the gene encoding a phosphate-repressible acid phosphatase (PHO5) present in many yeasts including Saccharomyces cerevisiae. However, C. glabrata still had phosphate starvation-inducible phosphatase activity. Screening a C. glabrata genomic library, we identified CgPMU2, a member of a three-gene family that contains a phosphomutase-like domain. This small-scale gene duplication event could allow for sub- or neofunctionalization. On the basis of phylogenetic and biochemical characterizations, CgPMU2 has neofunctionalized to become a broad range, phosphate starvation-regulated acid phosphatase, which functionally replaces PHO5 in this pathogenic yeast. We determined that CgPmu2, unlike ScPho5, is not able to hydrolyze phytic acid (inositol hexakisphosphate). Phytic acid is present in fruits and seeds where S. cerevisiae grows, but is not abundant in mammalian tissues where C. glabrata grows. We demonstrated that C. glabrata is limited from an environment where phytic acid is the only source of phosphate. Our work suggests that during evolutionary time, the selection for the ancestral PHO5 was lost and that C. glabrata neofunctionalized a weak phosphatase to replace PHO5. Convergent evolution of a phosphate starvation-inducible acid phosphatase in C. glabrata relative to most yeast species provides an example of how small changes in signal transduction pathways can mediate genetic isolation and uncovers a potential speciation gene.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Integrative analyses of speciation and divergence in Psammodromus hispanicus (Squamata: Lacertidae).

BackgroundGenetic, phenotypic and ecological divergence within a lineage is the result of past and ongoing evolutionary processes, which lead ultimately to diversification and speciation. Integrative analyses allow linking diversification to geological, climatic, and ecological events, and thus disentangling the relative importance of different evolutionary drivers in generating and maintaining current species richness.ResultsHere, we use phylogenetic, phenotypic, geographic, and environmental data to investigate diversification in the Spanish sand racer (Psammodromus hispanicus). Phylogenetic, molecular clock dating, and phenotypic analyses show that P. hispanicus consists of three lineages. One lineage from Western Spain diverged 8.3 (2.9-14.7) Mya from the ancestor of Psammodromus hispanicus edwardsianus and P. hispanicus hispanicus Central lineage. The latter diverged 4.8 (1.5-8.7) Mya. Molecular clock dating, together with population genetic analyses, indicate that the three lineages experienced northward range expansions from southern Iberian refugia during Pleistocene glacial periods. Ecological niche modelling shows that suitable habitat of the Western lineage and P. h. edwardsianus overlap over vast areas, but that a barrier may hinder dispersal and genetic mixing of populations of both lineages. P. h. hispanicus Central lineage inhabits an ecological niche that overlaps marginally with the other two lineages.ConclusionsOur results provide evidence for divergence in allopatry and niche conservatism between the Western lineage and the ancestor of P. h. edwardsianus and P. h. hispanicus Central lineage, whereas they suggest that niche divergence is involved in the origin of the latter two lineages. Both processes were temporally separated and may be responsible for the here documented genetic and phenotypic diversity of P. hispanicus. The temporal pattern is in line with those proposed for other animal lineages. It suggests that geographic isolation and vicariance played an important role in the early diversification of the group, and that lineage diversification was further amplified through ecological divergence.

Response to comment on "Climatic niche shifts are rare among terrestrial plant invaders"

Webber et al. take a critical view of our findings that niche expansions are rare in plant invaders, arguing mainly that we did not include nonanalog climates in our analyses. Yet, their concerns include misunderstandings and go beyond the scope of our study, which was purposely restricted to analog climates. We further explain why our results remain robust to other factors of niche dynamics in the native range. We conclude that the implications of our findings remain valid for projections of niche models in analog climates and that projections in nonanalog climates should be undertaken with care.

Interactions between cancer stem cells and their niche govern metastatic colonization.

Metastatic growth in distant organs is the major cause of cancer mortality. The development of metastasis is a multistage process with several rate-limiting steps. Although dissemination of tumour cells seems to be an early and frequent event, the successful initiation of metastatic growth, a process termed 'metastatic colonization', is inefficient for many cancer types and is accomplished only by a minority of cancer cells that reach distant sites. Prevalent target sites are characteristic of many tumour entities, suggesting that inadequate support by distant tissues contributes to the inefficiency of the metastatic process. Here we show that a small population of cancer stem cells is critical for metastatic colonization, that is, the initial expansion of cancer cells at the secondary site, and that stromal niche signals are crucial to this expansion process. We find that periostin (POSTN), a component of the extracellular matrix, is expressed by fibroblasts in the normal tissue and in the stroma of the primary tumour. Infiltrating tumour cells need to induce stromal POSTN expression in the secondary target organ (in this case lung) to initiate colonization. POSTN is required to allow cancer stem cell maintenance, and blocking its function prevents metastasis. POSTN recruits Wnt ligands and thereby increases Wnt signalling in cancer stem cells. We suggest that the education of stromal cells by infiltrating tumour cells is an important step in metastatic colonization and that preventing de novo niche formation may be a novel strategy for the treatment of metastatic disease.

Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia.

Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species' current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species' genetic structures.

Variation in the proportion of flower visitors of Arum maculatum along its distributional range in relation with community‐based climatic niche analyses

Here, we investigate the geographical constancy in the specificity level of the specialized lure-and-trap pollination antagonism involving the widespread European Arum maculatum and its associated Psychodid pollinators. Until now, studies concurred in demonstrating that one single insect species, Psychoda phalaenoides, efficiently cross-pollinated plants; researches were, however, performed locally in western Europe. In this study we characterize for the first time the flower visitors' composition at the scale of the distribution range of A. maculatum by intensively collecting plants and insects throughout the European continent. We further correlate local climatic characteristics with the community composition of visiting arthropods.Our results show that flowers are generally visited by P. phalaenoides females, but not over the whole distribution range of the plant. In some regions this fly species is less frequent or even absent and another species, Psycha grisescens, becomes the prevailing visitor. This variability is geographically structured and can be explained by climatic factors: the proportion of P. grisescens increases with higher annual precipitations and lower precipitations in the warmest trimester, two characteristics typical of the Mediterranean zone. Climate thus seems driving the specificity of this interaction, by potentially affecting the phenology of one or both interacting species, or even of volatile and heat production in the plant. This result therefore challenges the specificity of other presumably one-to-one interactions covering wide distribution ranges, and provides an example of the direct effect that the abiotic environment can have on the fate of plant-insect interactions.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.