A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

An isoform of microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2) containing four repeats of the tubulin-binding motif.

Microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2) exists in both high- and low-molecular mass isoforms, each of which has a tubulin-binding domain consisting of 3 imperfect tandem repeats of 31 amino acids containing a more highly conserved 18 amino acid 'core' sequence. We describe here a novel form of low molecular mass MAP2 (MAP2c) that contains an additional 4th repeat of this tubulin-binding motif. Like the 3 previously known repeat sequences, this 4th copy is highly conserved between MAP2 and the two other known members of the same gene family, tau and MAP4. In each of these three genes the additional 4th repeat is inserted between the 1st and 2nd repeats of the 3-repeat form of the molecule. Experiments with brain cell cultures, in which the relative proportions of neurons and glia had been manipulated by drug treatment, showed that 4-repeat MAP2c is associated with glial cells whereas 3-repeat MAP2c is expressed in neurons. Whereas 3-repeat MAP2c is expressed early in development and then declines, the level of 4-repeat MAP2c increases later in development, corresponding to the relatively late differentiation of glial cells compared to neurons. When transfected into non-neuronal cells, the 4-repeat version of MAP2c behaved indistinguishably from the 3-repeat form in stabilising and rearranging cellular microtubules. The presence of an additional 4th repeat of the tubulin-binding motif in all three members of the MAP2 gene family suggests that this variant arose prior to their differentiation from an ancestral gene.

Improvement of antibiotic prescription in outpatient care: a cluster-randomized intervention study using a sentinel surveillance network of physicians.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of implementing guidelines, coupled with individual feedback, on antibiotic prescribing behaviour of primary care physicians in Switzerland. METHODS: One hundred and forty general practices from a representative Swiss sentinel network of primary care physicians participated in this cluster-randomized prospective intervention study. The intervention consisted of providing guidelines on treatment of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and uncomplicated lower urinary tract infections (UTIs), coupled with sustained, regular feedback on individual antibiotic prescription behaviour during 2 years. The main aims were: (i) to increase the percentage of prescriptions of penicillins for all RTIs treated with antibiotics; (ii) to increase the percentage of trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole prescriptions for all uncomplicated lower UTIs treated with antibiotics; (iii) to decrease the percentage of quinolone prescriptions for all cases of exacerbated COPD (eCOPD) treated with antibiotics; and (iv) to decrease the proportion of sinusitis and other upper RTIs treated with antibiotics. The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01358916). RESULTS: While the percentage of antibiotics prescribed for sinusitis or other upper RTIs and the percentage of quinolones prescribed for eCOPD did not differ between the intervention group and the control group, there was a significant increase in the percentage of prescriptions of penicillins for all RTIs treated with antibiotics [57% versus 49%, OR=1.42 (95% CI 1.08-1.89), P=0.01] and in the percentage of trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole prescriptions for all uncomplicated lower UTIs treated with antibiotics [35% versus 19%, OR=2.16 (95% CI 1.19-3.91), P=0.01] in the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS: In our setting, implementing guidelines, coupled with sustained individual feedback, was not able to reduce the proportion of sinusitis and other upper RTIs treated with antibiotics, but increased the use of recommended antibiotics for RTIs and UTIs, as defined by the guidelines.

Parental influences on pathogen resistance in brown trout embryos and effects of outcrossing within a river network.

Phenotypic plasticity can increase tolerance to heterogeneous environments but the elevations and slopes of reaction norms are often population specific. Disruption of locally adapted reaction norms through outcrossing can lower individual viability. Here, we sampled five genetically distinct populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) from within a river network, crossed them in a full-factorial design, and challenged the embryos with the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas fluorescens. By virtue of our design, we were able to disentangle effects of genetic crossing distance from sire and dam effects on early life-history traits. While pathogen infection did not increase mortality, it was associated with delayed hatching of smaller larvae with reduced yolk sac reserves. We found no evidence of a relationship between genetic distance (W, FST) and the expression of early-life history traits. Moreover, hybrids did not differ in phenotypic means or reaction norms in comparison to offspring from within-population crosses. Heritable variation in early life-history traits was found to remain stable across the control and pathogen environments. Our findings show that outcrossing within a rather narrow geographical scale can have neutral effects on F1 hybrid viability at the embryonic stage, i.e. at a stage when environmental and genetic effects on phenotypes are usually large.

A miR-34a-SIRT6 axis in the squamous cell differentiation network.

Squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) are highly heterogeneous tumours, resulting from deranged expression of genes involved in squamous cell differentiation. Here we report that microRNA-34a (miR-34a) functions as a novel node in the squamous cell differentiation network, with SIRT6 as a critical target. miR-34a expression increases with keratinocyte differentiation, while it is suppressed in skin and oral SCCs, SCC cell lines, and aberrantly differentiating primary human keratinocytes (HKCs). Expression of this miRNA is restored in SCC cells, in parallel with differentiation, by reversion of genomic DNA methylation or wild-type p53 expression. In normal HKCs, the pro-differentiation effects of increased p53 activity or UVB exposure are miR-34a-dependent, and increased miR-34a levels are sufficient to induce differentiation of these cells both in vitro and in vivo. SIRT6, a sirtuin family member not previously connected with miR-34a function, is a direct target of this miRNA in HKCs, and SIRT6 down-modulation is sufficient to reproduce the miR-34a pro-differentiation effects. The findings are of likely biological significance, as SIRT6 is oppositely expressed to miR-34a in normal keratinocytes and keratinocyte-derived tumours.

Analyse fonctionnelle et moléculaire d'un nouveau gène (VIT32) impliqué dans le mécanisme d'action de la vasopressine

Résumé Les mécanismes de régulation de la réabsorption fine du sodium dans la partie distale (tube distal et tube collecteur) du néphron ont un rôle essentiel dans le maintien de l'homéostasie de la composition ionique et du volume des fluides extracellulaires. Ces mécanismes permettent le maintien de la pression sanguine. Dans la cellule principale du tube collecteur cortical (CCD), le taux de réabsorption de sodium dépend essentiellement de l'activité du canal épithélial à sodium (ENaC) à la membrane apicale et de la pompe sodium-potassium-adénosine-triphosphatase (Na+-K±ATPase) à la membrane basolatérale. L'activité de ces deux molécules de transport est en partie régulée par des hormones dont l'aldostérone, la vasopressine et l'insuline. Dans les cellules principales de CCD, la vasopressine régule le transport de sodium en deux étapes : une étape précoce dite « non-génomique » et une étape tardive dite « génotnique ». Durant l'étape précoce, la vasopressine régule l'expression de gènes, dont certains peuvent être impliqués dans le transport de sodium, comme ENaC et la Na+ -K+ATP ase. Le but de mon travail a été d'étudier l'implication d'une protéine appelée VIP32 (vasopressin induced protein : VIP) dans le transport de sodium. L'expression de VIP32 est augmentée par la vasopressine dans les cellules principales de CCD. Dans l'ovocyte de Xenopus laevis utilisé comme système d'expression hétérologue, nous avons montré que l'expression de VIP32 provoque la maturation méiotique de l'ovocyte par l'activation de la voie des MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinase : MAPK) et du facteur de promotion méiotique (MPF). La co-expression d'ENaC et de VIP32 diminue l'activité d'ENaC de façon sélective, par l'activation de la voie des MAPK, sans affecter l'expression du canal à la surface membranaire. Nous avons également montré que la régulation de l'activité d'ENaC par la voie des MAPK est dépendante du mécanisme de régulation d'ENaC lié à un motif du canal appelé PY. Ce motif est impliqué dans le contrôle de la probabilité d'ouverture ainsi que l'expression à la surface membranaire d'ENaC. Dans les cellules principales, VIP32 par l'activation de la voie des MAPK peut être impliqué dans la régulation négative du transport transépithélial qui a lieu après plusieurs heures de traitement à la vasopressine. Le tube collecteur de reins normaux présente un taux basal significatif d'activité de la voie MAPK MEK1/2-ERK1/2. Dans la lignée mpkCCDc14 de cellules principales de CCD de souris, que nous avons utilisé pour cette partie du travail, nous avons montré la présence d'un taux basal d'activité d'ERK1/2 (pERK1/2). L'aldostérone et la vasopressine, connus pour stimuler le courant sodique transépithélial dans le CCD, ne changeaient pas le taux basal de pERK1/2. Le transport de sodium transépithélial basal, ou stimulé par l'aldostérone ou la vasopressine est diminué par l'effet de PD98059, un inhibiteur de MEK1/2 qui diminue parallèlement le taux de pERK1/2. Nous avons également montré dans des cellules non stimulées, ou stimulées par de l'aldostérone ou de la vasopressine, que l'activité de la Na+-K+ ATPase, mais pas celle d'ENaC est inhibée par des traitements avec différents inhibiteurs de MEK1/2. Par un marquage de la Na±-K+ATPase à la surface membranaire nous avons montré que la voie d'ERK1/2 contrôle l'activité intrinsèque de la Na+-K+ ATPase, plutôt que son expression à la surface membranaire. Ces données ont montré que l'activité de la Na+-K+ATPase et le transport transépithélial de sodium sont contrôlés par l'activité basal et constitutive de la voie d'ERK1/2. Summary The regulation of sodium reabsorption in the distal nephron (distal tubule and cortical collecting duct) in the kidney plays an essential role in the control of extracellular fluids composition and volume, and thereby blood pressure. In the principal cell of the collecting duct (CCD), the level of sodium reabsorption mainlly depends on the activity of both epithlial sodium channel (ENaC) and sodium-potassium-adenosine-triphosphatase (Na+-K+ATPase). The activity of these two transporters is regulated by hormones especially aldosterone, vasopressin and insuline.In the principal cell of the CCD, vasopressin regulates sodium transport via a short-term effect and a late genomic effect. During the genomic effect vasopressin activates a complex network of vasopressin-dependent genes involved in the regulation of sodium transport as ENaC and Na+-K+ATPase. We were interested in the role of a recently identified vasopressin induced protein (VIP32) and its implication in the regulation of sodium transport in principal cell of the CCD. The Xenopus oocyte expression system revealed two functions : expressed alone VIP32 rapidly induces oocyte meiotic maturation through the activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway and the meiotic promoting factor and when co-expressed with ENaC, V1P32 selectively dowrn-egulates channel activity, but not channel cell surface expression. We have shown that the ENaC downregulation mediated by the activation of the MAPK pathway is related to the PY motif of ENaC. This motif is implicated in ENaC cell surface expression and open probability regulation. In the kidney principal cell, VIP32 through the activation of MAPK pathway may be involved in the downregulation of transepithelial sodium transport observed within a few hours after vasopressin treatment. The collecting duct of normal kidney exhibits significant activity of the MEK1/2-ERK1/2 MAPK pathway. Using in vitro cultured mpkCCDc14 principal cells we have shown a significant basal level of ERK1/2 activity (pERK1/2). Aldosterone and vasopressin, known to upregulate sodium reabsorption in CCDs, did not change ERK1/2 activity. Basal and aldosterone- or vasopressin-stimulated sodium transport were downregulated by the MEK1/2 inhibitor PD98059 in parallel with a decrease in pERK1/2 in vitro. The activity of Na+-K+ATPase but not that of ENaC was inhibited by MEK1/2 inhibitors in both, unstimulated and aldosterone- or vasopressin-stimulated CCDs in vitro. Cell surface labelling showed that intrinsic activity rather than cell surface expression of Na+-K+ATPase was controlled by pERK1/2. Our data demonstrate that basal constitutive activity of ERK1/2 pathway controls Na+-K+ATPase activity and transepithelial sodium transport in the principal cell. Résumé tout public Les mécanismes de régulation de la réabsorption fine du sodium dans la partie distale du néphron (l'unité fonctionnelle du rein) ont un rôle essentiel dans le maintien de l'homéostasie de la composition et du volume des fluides extracellulaires. Ces mécanismes permettent de maintenir une pression sanguine effective. Dans les cellules principales du tube collecteur, une région spécifique du néphron distal, le transport de sodium dépend essentiellement de l'activité de deux transporteurs de sodium : le canal épithélial à sodium (ENaC) et la pompe sodium-potassium-adénosine-triphosphatase (Na+-K+ATPase). Afin de répondre aux besoins de l'organisme, l'activité de ces deux molécules de transport est en partie régulée par des hormones dont l'aldostérone, la vasopressine et l'insuline. Dans les cellules principales du tube collecteur, la vasopressine régule le transport de sodium en deux étapes : une étape rapide et une étape lente dite « génomique ». Durant l'étape lente, la vasopressine régule l'expression de gènes pouvant être impliqués dans le transport de sodium, dont notamment ceux d'ENaC et de la Na+-K+ATPase. Parmi les gènes dont l'expression est augmentée par la vasopressine, celui de VIP32 (vasopressin induced protein : VIP) fait l'objet de cette étude. Le but de mon travail a été d'étudier, dans un système d'expression hétérologue (l'ovocyte de Xenopus leavis), l'implication de VIP32 dans le transport de sodium. Nous avons montré que VIP32 est capable d'activer un mécanisme moléculaire en cascade appelé MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinase : MAPK) et est aussi capable de diminuer l'activité d'ENaC. Parallèlement, dans une lignée de cellules principales de tube collecteur les mpkCCDc14, nous avons montré que le taux basal d'activité de la cascade MAPK est capable de réguler l'activité de la Na+-K+ATPase, tandis qu'il n'influence pas l'activité d'ENaC.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Additive functions in boolean models of gene regulatory network modules.

Gene-on-gene regulations are key components of every living organism. Dynamical abstract models of genetic regulatory networks help explain the genome's evolvability and robustness. These properties can be attributed to the structural topology of the graph formed by genes, as vertices, and regulatory interactions, as edges. Moreover, the actual gene interaction of each gene is believed to play a key role in the stability of the structure. With advances in biology, some effort was deployed to develop update functions in Boolean models that include recent knowledge. We combine real-life gene interaction networks with novel update functions in a Boolean model. We use two sub-networks of biological organisms, the yeast cell-cycle and the mouse embryonic stem cell, as topological support for our system. On these structures, we substitute the original random update functions by a novel threshold-based dynamic function in which the promoting and repressing effect of each interaction is considered. We use a third real-life regulatory network, along with its inferred Boolean update functions to validate the proposed update function. Results of this validation hint to increased biological plausibility of the threshold-based function. To investigate the dynamical behavior of this new model, we visualized the phase transition between order and chaos into the critical regime using Derrida plots. We complement the qualitative nature of Derrida plots with an alternative measure, the criticality distance, that also allows to discriminate between regimes in a quantitative way. Simulation on both real-life genetic regulatory networks show that there exists a set of parameters that allows the systems to operate in the critical region. This new model includes experimentally derived biological information and recent discoveries, which makes it potentially useful to guide experimental research. The update function confers additional realism to the model, while reducing the complexity and solution space, thus making it easier to investigate.

A neuron-glia signalling network in the active brain.

Glial cells are active partners of neurons in processing information and synaptic integration. They receive coded signals from synapses and elaborate modulatory responses. The active properties of glia, including long-range signalling and regulated transmitter release, are beginning to be elucidated. Recent insights suggest that the active brain should no longer be regarded as a circuitry of neuronal contacts, but as an integrated network of interactive neurons and glia.

Phosphorylation of the Na,K-ATPase alpha-subunit by protein kinase A and C in vitro and in intact cells. Identification of a novel motif for PKC-mediated phosphorylation.

Na,K-ATPase is a potential target for regulatory phosphorylation by protein kinase A and C (PKA and PKC). To identify the phosphorylation sites, we have mutated the alpha 1-subunit of Bufo marinus in a highly conservative PKA and in 20 different PKC consensus sequences. The mutants were expressed in Xenopus oocytes and their phosphorylation capacity tested in homogenates upon stimulation of PKA or PKC. While serine 943 (Ser-943) was identified as a unique target site for PKA, none of the PKC consensus serine or threonine residues are implicated in PKC phosphorylation. Controlled trypsinolysis of phosphorylated alpha-subunits of various purified enzyme preparations and of alpha/beta complexes from oocyte homogenates revealed that PKC phosphorylation was exclusively associated with the N terminus. A fusion protein containing the first 32 amino acids of the Bufo alpha-subunit was phosphorylated in vitro and serine and threonine residues (Thr-15 and Ser-16) in this region were identified by site-directed mutagenesis as the PKC phosphorylation sites. Finally, the Bufo alpha-subunit was phosphorylated by protein kinases in transfected COS-7 cells. In intact cells, PKA stimulation induced phosphorylation exclusively on Ser-943 and PKC stimulation mainly on Thr-15 and Ser-16, which are contained in a novel PKC phosphorylation motif.

The potential of the European network of congenital anomaly registers (EUROCAT) for drug safety surveillance: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) is a network of population-based congenital anomaly registries in Europe surveying more than 1 million births per year, or 25% of the births in the European Union. This paper describes the potential of the EUROCAT collaboration for pharmacoepidemiology and drug safety surveillance. METHODS: The 34 full members and 6 associate members of the EUROCAT network were sent a questionnaire about their data sources on drug exposure and on drug coding. Available data on drug exposure during the first trimester available in the central EUROCAT database for the years 1996-2000 was summarised for 15 out of 25 responding full members. RESULTS: Of the 40 registries, 29 returned questionnaires (25 full and 4 associate members). Four of these registries do not collect data on maternal drug use. Of the full members, 15 registries use the EUROCAT drug code, 4 use the international ATC drug code, 3 registries use another coding system and 7 use a combination of these coding systems. Obstetric records are the most frequently used sources of drug information for the registries, followed by interviews with the mother. Only one registry uses pharmacy data. Percentages of cases with drug exposure (excluding vitamins/minerals) varied from 4.4% to 26.0% among different registries. The categories of drugs recorded varied widely between registries. CONCLUSIONS: Practices vary widely between registries regarding recording drug exposure information. EUROCAT has the potential to be an effective collaborative framework to contribute to post-marketing drug surveillance in relation to teratogenic effects, but work is needed to implement ATC drug coding more widely, and to diversify the sources of information used to determine drug exposure in each registry.

H-2Kd-restricted antigenic peptides share a simple binding motif.

We have defined structural features that are apparently important for the binding of four different, unrelated antigenic epitopes to the same major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecule, H-2Kd. The four epitopes are recognized in the form of synthetic peptides by cytotoxic T lymphocytes of the appropriate specificity. By analysis of the relative potency of truncated peptides, we demonstrated that for each of the four epitopes, optimal antigenic activity was present in a peptide of 9 or 10 amino acid residues. A comparison of the relative competitor activity of the different-length peptides in a functional competition assay, as well as in a direct binding assay based on photoaffinity labeling of the Kd molecule, indicated that the enhanced potency of the peptides upon reduction in length was most likely due to a higher affinity of the shorter peptides for the Kd molecule. A remarkably simple motif that appears to be important for the specific binding of Kd-restricted peptides was identified by the analysis of peptides containing amino acid substitutions or deletions. The motif consists of two elements, a Tyr in the second position relative to the NH2 terminus and a hydrophobic residue with a large aliphatic side chain (Leu, Ile, or Val) at the COOH-terminal end of the optimal 9- or 10-mer peptides. We demonstrated that a simple peptide analogue (AYP6L) that incorporates the motif can effectively and specifically interact with the Kd molecule. Moreover, all of the additional Kd-restricted epitopes defined thus far in the literature contain the motif, and it may thus be useful for the prediction of new epitopes recognized by T cells in the context of this MHC class I molecule.