Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change.

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

Turnaround across diverse global supply chains using shared metrics and change methodology: The Case of Amer Sports Corporation

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to document the outcome of a global three-year long supply chain improvement initiative at a multi-national producer of branded sporting goods that is transforming from a holding structure to an integrated company. The case company is comprised of seven internationally well-known sport brands, which form a diverse set of independent sub-cases, on which the same supply chain metrics and change project approach was applied to improve supply chain performance. Design/methodology/approach - By using in-depth case study and statistical analysis the paper analyzes across the brands how supply chain complexity (SKU count), supply chain type (make or buy) and seasonality affect completeness and punctuality of deliveries, and inventory as the change project progresses. Findings - Results show that reduction in supply chain complexity improves delivery performance, but has no impact on inventory. Supply chain type has no impact on service level, but brands with in-house production are better in improving inventory than those with outsourced production. Non-seasonal business units improve service faster than seasonal ones, yet there is no impact on inventory. Research limitations/implications - The longitudinal data used for the analysis is biased with the general business trend, yet the rich data from different cases and three-years of data collection enables generalizations to a certain level. Practical implications - The in-depth case study serves as an example for other companies on how to initiate a supply chain improvement project across business units with tangible results. Originality/value - The seven sub-cases with their different characteristics on which the same improvement initiative was applied sets a unique ground for longitudinal analysis to study supply chain complexity, type and seasonality.

Effects of genetic alterations in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi on plant growth and on their response to a change of host

Abstract :The majority of land plants form the symbiosis with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). The AM symbiosis has existed for hundreds of millions of years but little or no specificity seems to have co- evolved between the partners and only about 200 morphospecies of AMF are known. The fungi supply the plants most notably with phosphate in exchange for carbohydrates. The fungi improve plant growth, protect them against pathogens and herbivores and the symbiosis plays a key role in ecosystem productivity and plant diversity. The fungi are coenocytic, grow clonally and no sexual stage in their life cycle is known. For these reasons, they are presumed ancient asexuals. Evidence suggests that AMF contain populations of genetically different nucleotypes coexisting in a common cytoplasm. Consequently, the nucleotype content of new clonal offspring could potentially be altered by segregation of nuclei at spore formation and by genetic exchange between different AMF. Given the importance of AMF, it is surprising that remarkably little is known about the genetics and genomics of the fungi.The main goal of this thesis was to investigate the combined effects of plant species differences and of genetic exchange and segregation in AMF on the symbiosis. This work showed that single spore progeny can receive a different assortment of nucleotypes compared to their parent and compared to other single spore progeny. This is the first direct evidence that segregation occurs in AMF. We then showed that both genetic exchange and segregation can lead to new progeny that differentially alter plant growth compared to their parents. We also found that genetic exchange and segregation can lead to different development of the fungus during the establishment of the symbiosis. Finally, we found that a shift of host species can differentially alter the phenotypes and genotypes of AMF progeny obtained by genetic exchange and segregation compared to their parents.Overall, this study confirms the multigenomic state of the AMF Glomus intraradices because our findings are possible only if the fungus contains genetically different nuclei. We demonstrated the importance of the processes of genetic exchange and segregation to produce, in a very short time span, new progeny with novel symbiotic effects. Moreover, our results suggest that different host species could affect the fate of different nucleotypes following genetic exchange and segregation in AMF, and can potentially contribute to the maintenance of genetic diversity within AMF individuals. This work brings new insights into understanding how plants and fungi have coevolved and how the genetic diversity in AMF can be maintained. We recommend that the intra-ir1dividual AMF diversity and these processes should be considered in future research on this symbiosis.Résumé :La majorité des plantes terrestres forment des symbioses avec les champignons endomycorhiziens arbusculaires (CEA). Cette symbiose existe depuis plusieurs centaines de millions d'années mais peu ou pas de spécificité semble avoir co-évoluée entre les partenaires et seulement 200 morpho-espèces de CEA sont connues. Le champignon fournit surtout aux plantes du phosphate en échange de carbohydrates. Le champignon augmente la croissance des plantes, les protège contre des pathogènes et herbivores et la symbiose joue un rôle clé dans la productivité des écosystèmes et de la diversité des plantes. Les CEA sont coenocytiques, se reproduisent clonalement et aucune étape sexuée n'est connue dans leur cycle de vie. Pour ces raisons, ils sont présumés comme anciens asexués. Des preuves suggèrent que les CEA ont des populations de nucleotypes différents coexistant dans un cytoplasme commun. Par conséquent, le contenu en nucleotype des nouveaux descendants clonaux pourrait être altéré par la ségrégation des noyaux lors de la fonnation des spores et par l'échange génétique entre différents CEA. Etant donné l'importance des CEA, il est surprenant que si peu soit connu sur la génétique et la génomique du champignon.Le principal but de cette thèse a été d'étudier les effets combinés de différentes espèces de plantes et des mécanismes d'échange génétique et de ségrégation chez les CEA sur la symbiose. Ce travail a montré que chaque nouvelle spore produite pouvait recevoir un assortiment différent de noyaux comparé au parent ou comparé à d'autres nouvelles spores. Ceci est la première preuve directe que la ségrégation peut se produire chez les CEA. Nous avons ensuite montré qu'à la fois l'échange génétique et la ségrégation pouvaient mener à de nouveaux descendants qui altèrent différemment la croissance des plantes, comparé à leurs parents. Nous avons également trouvé que l'échange génétique et la ségrégation pouvaient entraîner des développements différents du champignon pendant l'établissement de la symbiose. Pour finir, nous avons trouvé qu'un changement d'espèce de l'hôte pouvait altérer différemment les phénotypes et génotypes des descendants issus d'échange génétique et de ségrégation, comparé à leurs parents.Globalement, cette étude confirme l'état multigénomique du CEA Glumus intraradices car nous résultats sont possibles seulement si le champignon possède des noyaux génétiquement différents. Nous avons démontrés l'importance des mécanismes d'échange génétique et de ségrégation pour produire en très peu de temps de nouveaux descendants ayant des effets symbiotiques nouveaux. De plus, nos résultats suggèrent que différentes espèces de plantes peuvent agir sur le devenir des nucleotypes après l'échange génétique et la ségrégation chez les CEA, et pourraient contribuer à la maintenance de la diversité génétique au sein d'un même CEA. Ce travail apporte des éléments nouveaux pour comprendre comment les plantes et les champignons ont coévolué et comment la diversité génétique chez les CEA peut être maintenue. Nous recommandons de considérer la diversité génétique intra-individuelle des CEA et ces mécanismes lors de futures recherches sur cette symbiose.

Anaesthesia for electroconvulsive therapy: time for a change?

Introduction: Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) may be used to treat severe depression and needs a specific general anaesthesia. Important cardiovascular changes occur during the ECT with a parasympathetic induced bradycardia followed by a sympathetic response. A dedicated protocol was designed 6 years ago. The goal of this study was to analyse the management of anaesthesia for ECT in our institution, the adherence to the protocol and the occurrence of adverse events during anaesthesia. Methods: After Institutional Ethics Committee approval, we conducted a retrospective analysis of our anaesthesia protocol for patients scheduled for electroshock therapy during a five years period (2004- 2008). The protocol includes administration of atropine subcutaneously 30 minutes before the procedure, followed by general anaesthesia induced with etomidate (0.2 mg/kg). Suxamethonium (1 mg/kg) is administered after the inflation of a pneumatic tourniquet on the opposite arm, in order to observe the electroshocks convulsive effects. The psychiatrist initiates the convulsive crisis once curarisation is achieved. Face mask ventilation is then applied during the post-ictal phase with closed blood pressure monitoring. : 228 ECT were performed in 25 patients. The median dosage of etomidate was 0.37 mg/kg and suxamethonium 1.20 mg/kg. Hypertension during the ECT procedure was present in 62.7% of cases, tachycardia 23.2% and bradycardia 10.5%. Esmolol was administered in 73.4% of hypertensive patients in a range of 0 to 30 mg. The protocol was followed in half of the cases in regards to atropine administration (50.4%). We observed a significant increase of hypertension (73.9%, p = 0.001) after atropine administration, without effect on heart rate. Conclusions: The management of anaesthesia for ECT is specific and follows a predefined protocol in our institution. Adherence to our protocol was poor. Adverse events are frequent and significant association between the administration of atropine and the incidence of hypertension as well as poor protocol adherence implies reconsideration of our anaesthesia protocol for electroconvulsive therapy and better quality control of the clinical practice.

Stage of change of cigarette smoking in drug dependent patients

Résumé En Suisse, les programmes de désaccoutumance au tabac se réfèrent généralement au modèle de préparation au changement de Prochaska et DiClemente (1983), Les patients atteints de maladies somatiques liées au tabagisme comme les pathologies cardiovasculaires ou pulmonaires accèdent facilement à ces programmes, contrairement aux patients présentant une dépendance à des drogues illicites. La prévalence de fumeurs dans cette population est pourtant élevée et les problèmes engendrés par le tabac sont importants, non seulement d'un point de vue individuel mais aussi en terme de santé publique. Il est par conséquent intéressant d'évaluer la motivation concernant la désaccoutumance au tabac de patients toxicomanes entreprenant un sevrage de drogues illicites. Dans cette étude, nous avons évalué les stades de préparation au changement concernant la dépendance au tabac chez 100 patients toxicomanes hospitalisés sur un mode volontaire dans le cadre d'un programme de sevrage à des drogues illégales. L'évaluation s'est faite à l'aide d'un auto-questionnaire dont les résultats indiquent qu'une minorité de patients sont décidés à interrompre la consommation de tabac. En effet, seul 15% des patients se trouvaient aux stades de contemplation ou de décision. De plus, 93% des sujets considéraient l'arrêt du tabac comme difficile ou très difficile. Ces données montrent qu'il existe un décalage important entre la motivation relative au sevrage de drogues illégales et la motivation liées à l'arrêt du tabac. En effet, malgré leur motivation élevée pour se sevrer de drogues illicites, la proportion de patients restant au stade de précontemplation concernant la désaccoutumance au tabac reste élevée. Diverses hypothèses permettent d'expliquer ces résultats, notamment la perception que la désaccoutumance au tabac est plus difficile à réaliser que le sevrage de substances illicites. Abstract Nicotine cessation programmes in Switzerland, which are commonly based on the stage of change model of Prochaska and DiClemente (1983), are rarely offered to patients with illicit drug dependence. This stands in contrast to the high smoking rates and the heavy burden of tobacco-related problems in these patients. The stage of change was therefore assessed by self-administered questionnaire in 100 inpatients attending an illegal drug withdrawal programme. Only 15% of the patients were in the contemplation or decision stage. 93% considered smoking cessation to be difficult or very difficult. These data show a discrepancy between the motivation to change illegal drug consumption habits and the motivation for smoking cessation. The high pro-portion of patients remaining in the precontemplation stage for smoking cessation, in spite of their motivation for illicit drug detoxification, may be due to the perception that cessation of smoking is more difficult than illicit drug abuse cessation.

Dynamics of a paleoecosystem reef associated with oceanic change in carbonate sedimentary regime and carbon cycling (Oxfordian, Swiss Jura)

Herein we report an analysis of an Oxfordian (Upper Jurassic) paleoreef located in the Swiss Jura Mountains. The paleoreef is located in a Middle Oxfordian transitional interval in which sedimentation switched from marl-dominated to carbonate-dominated deposits. The paleoecosystem is composed of four successive fossil communities characterized by microsolenid corals and organisms that specialized in suspension feeding. Carbon isotopes measured from echinoid spine carbonates exhibit a positive trend from similar to 1.0 parts per thousand to 2.5 parts per thousand in delta(13)C values from the base to the top of the paleoreef. Comparison of delta(13)C curves with organic matter and belemnites shows different patterns not compatible with a global variation of the carbon cycle. Similar fossil assemblages and stratigraphic sequences identical in age are found along the continental margin of the Tethys-Atlantic Ocean. This biolithostratigraphic succession corresponds to increasing delta(13)C values of marine and biogenic carbonates, to the transition from marl-dominated to carbonate-dominated deposits, and to the development of carbonate platforms, which together suggest a change in the carbon cycling regime within the Tethys-Atlantic Ocean system.

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.