Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Decreasing mortality and changing patterns of causes of death in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among HIV-infected persons is decreasing, and causes of death are changing. Classification of deaths is hampered because of low autopsy rates, frequent deaths outside of hospitals, and shortcomings of International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) coding. METHODS: We studied mortality among Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) participants (1988-2010) and causes of death using the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) protocol (2005-2009). Furthermore, we linked the SHCS data to the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) cause of death registry. RESULTS: AIDS-related mortality peaked in 1992 [11.0/100 person-years (PY)] and decreased to 0.144/100 PY (2006); non-AIDS-related mortality ranged between 1.74 (1993) and 0.776/100 PY (2006); mortality of unknown cause ranged between 2.33 and 0.206/100 PY. From 2005 to 2009, 459 of 9053 participants (5.1%) died. Underlying causes of deaths were: non-AIDS malignancies [total, 85 (19%) of 446 deceased persons with known hepatitis C virus (HCV) status; HCV-negative persons, 59 (24%); HCV-coinfected persons, 26 (13%)]; AIDS [73 (16%); 50 (21%); 23 (11%)]; liver failure [67 (15%); 12 (5%); 55 (27%)]; non-AIDS infections [42 (9%); 13 (5%); 29 (14%)]; substance use [31 (7%); 9 (4%); 22 (11%)]; suicide [28 (6%); 17 (7%), 11 (6%)]; myocardial infarction [28 (6%); 24 (10%), 4 (2%)]. Characteristics of deceased persons differed in 2005 vs. 2009: median age (45 vs. 49 years, respectively); median CD4 count (257 vs. 321 cells/μL, respectively); the percentage of individuals who were antiretroviral therapy-naïve (13 vs. 5%, respectively); the percentage of deaths that were AIDS-related (23 vs. 9%, respectively); and the percentage of deaths from non-AIDS-related malignancies (13 vs. 24%, respectively). Concordance in the classification of deaths was 72% between CoDe and ICD-10 coding in the SHCS; and 60% between the SHCS and the SNC registry. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in HIV-positive persons decreased to 1.33/100 PY in 2010. Hepatitis B or C virus coinfections increased the risk of death. Between 2005 and 2009, 84% of deaths were non-AIDS-related. Causes of deaths varied according to data source and coding system.

Local adaptation and life history traits evolution in heterogeneous environment : an empirical example in the freshwater snail, Galba truncatula

Abstract: To understand the processes of evolution, biologists are interested in the ability of a population to respond to natural or artificial selection. The amount of genetic variation is often viewed as the main factor allowing a species to answer to selection. Many theories have thus focused on the maintenance of genetic variability. Ecologists and population geneticists have long-suspected that the structure of the environment is connected to the maintenance of diversity. Theorists have shown that diversity can be permanently and stably maintained in temporal and spatial varying environment in certain conditions. Moreover, varying environments have been also theoretically demonstrated to cause the evolution of divergent life history strategies in the different niches constituting the environment. Although there is a huge number of theoretical studies selection and on life history evolution in heterogeneous environments, there is a clear lack of empirical studies. The purpose of this thesis was to. empirically study the evolutionary consequences of a heterogeneous environment in a freshwater snail Galba truncatula. Indeed, G. truncatula lives in two habitat types according the water availability. First, it can be found in streams or ponds which never completely dry out: a permanent habitat. Second, G. truncatula can be found in pools that freeze during winter and dry during summer: a temporary habitat. Using a common garden approach, we empirically demonstrated local adaptation of G. truncatula to temporary and permanent habitats. We used at first a comparison of molecular (FST) vs. quantitative (QST) genetic differentiation between temporary and permanent habitats. To confirm the pattern QST> FST between habitats suggesting local adaptation, we then tested the desiccation resistance of individuals from temporary and permanent habitats. This study confirmed that drought resistance seemed to be the main factor selected between habitats, and life history traits linked to the desiccation resistance were thus found divergent between habitats. However, despite this evidence of selection acting on mean values of traits between habitats, drift was suggested to be the main factor responsible of variation in variances-covariances between populations. At last, we found life history traits variation of individuals in a heterogeneous environment varying in parasite prevalence. This thesis empirically demonstrated the importance of heterogeneous environments in local adaptation and life history evolution and suggested that more experimental studies are needed to investigate this topic. Résumé: Les biologistes se sont depuis toujours intéressés en l'aptitude d'une population à répondre à la sélection naturelle. Cette réponse dépend de la quantité de variabilité génétique présente dans cette population. Plus particulièrement, les théoriciens se sont penchés sur la question du maintient de la variabilité génétique au sein d'environnements hétérogènes. Ils ont alors démontré que, sous certaines conditions, la diversité génétique peut se maintenir de manière stable et permanente dans des environnements variant au niveau spatial et temporel. De plus, ces environments variables ont été démontrés comme responsable de divergence de traits d'histoire de vie au sein des différentes niches constituant l'environnement. Cependant, malgré ce nombre important d'études théoriques portant sur la sélection et l'évolution des traits d'histoire de vie en environnement hétérogène, les études empiriques sont plus rares. Le but de cette thèse était donc d'étudier les conséquences évolutives d'un environnement hétérogène chez un esgarcot d'eau douce Galba truncatula. En effet, G. truncatula est trouvé dans deux types d'habitats qui diffèrent par leur niveau d'eau. Le premier, l'habitat temporaire, est constitué de flaques d'eau qui peuvent s'assécher pendant l'été et geler pendant l'hiver. Le second, l'habitat permanent, correspond à des marres ou à des ruisseaux qui ont un niveau d'eau constant durant toute l'année. Utilisant une approche expérimentale de type "jardin commun", nous avons démontré l'adaptation locale des individus à leur type d'habitat, permanent ou temporaire. Nous avons utilisé l'approche Fsr/QsT qui compare la différentiation génétique moléculaire avec la différentiation génétique quantitative entre les 2 habitats. Le phénomène d'adapation locale démontré par QsT > FsT, a été testé experimentalement en mesurant la résistance à la dessiccation d'individus d'habitat temporaire et permanent. Cette étude confirma que la résistance à la sécheresse a été sélectionné entre habitats et que les traits responsables de cette resistance sont différents entre habitats. Cependant si la sélection agit sur la valeur moyenne des traits entre habitats, la dérive génétique semble être le responsable majeur de la différence de variances-covariances entre populations. Pour finir, une variation de traits d'histoire de vie a été trouvée au sein d'un environnement hétérogène constitué de populations variants au niveau de leur taux de parasitisme. Pour conclure, cette thèse a donc démontré l'importance d'un environnement hétérogène sur l'adaptation locale et l'évolution des traits d'histoire de vie et suggère que plus d'études empiriques sur le sujet sont nécessaires.

Significant decrease in in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events in Swiss STEMI patients between 2000 and December 2007.

To evaluate the in-hospital outcome of STEMI (ST elevation myocardial infarction) patients admitted to Swiss hospitals between 2000 and December 2007, and to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality and major cardiac events. Data from the Swiss national registry AMIS Plus (Acute Myocardial Infarction and Unstable Angina in Switzerland) were used. All patients admitted between January 2000 and December 2007 with STEMI or a new LBBB (left bundle branch block) were included in the registry. We studied 12 026 STEMI patients admitted to 68 hospitals. The mean age was 64 +/- 13 years and 73% of the patients were male. Incidence of in-hospital death was 7.6% in 2000 and 6% in 2007. Reinfarction fell from 3.7% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2007. Thrombolysis decreased from 40.2% in 2000 to 2% in 2007. Clinical predictors of mortality were: age >65 years, Killips class III or IV, diabetes, Q wave myocardial infarction (at presentation). Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) had lower mortality and reinfarction rates (3.9% versus 11.2% and 1.1% versus 3.1% respectively, p <0.001) over time, although their numbers increased from 43% in 2000 to 85% in 2007. Patients admitted to hospitals with PCI facilities had lower mortality than patients hospitalised in hospitals without it, but the demographic characteristics differ widely between the two groups. Both in-hospital mortality and reinfarction decreased significantly over the time, parallel to an increased number of PCI. PCI was also the strongest predictor of survival. In-hospital mortality and reinfarction rate have decreased significantly in Swiss STEMI patients in the last seven years, parallel to a significant increase in the number of percutaneous coronary interventions in addition to medical therapy. Outcome is not related to the site of admission but to PCI access.

High hepatic and extrahepatic mortality and low treatment uptake in HCV-coinfected persons in the Swiss HIV cohort study between 2001 and 2013.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The landscape of HCV treatments is changing dramatically. At the beginning of this new era, we highlight the challenges for HCV therapy by assessing the long-term epidemiological trends in treatment uptake, efficacy and mortality among HIV/HCV-coinfected people since the availability of HCV therapy. METHODS: We included all SHCS participants with detectable HCV RNA between 2001 and 2013. To identify predictors for treatment uptake uni- and multivariable Poisson regression models were applied. We further used survival analyses with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression with drop-out as competing risk. RESULTS: Of 12,401 participants 2107 (17%) were HCV RNA positive. Of those, 636 (30%) started treatment with an incidence of 5.8/100 person years (PY) (95% CI 5.3-6.2). Sustained virological response (SVR) with pegylated interferon/ribavirin was achieved in 50% of treated patients, representing 15% of all participants with replicating HCV-infection. 344 of 2107 (16%) HCV RNA positive persons died, 59% from extrahepatic causes. Mortality/100 PY was 2.9 (95% CI 2.6-3.2) in untreated patients, 1.3 (1.0-1.8) in those treated with failure, and 0.6 (0.4-1.0) in patients with SVR. In 2013, 869/2107 (41%) participants remained HCV RNA positive. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 13years HCV treatment uptake was low and by the end of 2013, a large number of persons remain to be treated. Mortality was high, particularly in untreated patients, and mainly due to non-liver-related causes. Accordingly, in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, integrative care including the diagnosis and therapy of somatic and psychiatric disorders is important to achieve mortality rates similar to HIV-monoinfected patients.

Endovascular Versus Open Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Best Decision.

Since the first implantation of an endograft in 1991, endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) rapidly gained recognition. Historical trials showed lower early mortality rates but these results were not maintained beyond 4 years. Despite newer-generation devices, higher rates of reintervention are associated with EVAR during follow-up. Therefore, the best therapeutic decision relies on many parameters that the physician has to take in consideration. Patient's preferences and characteristics are important, especially age and life expectancy besides health status. Aneurysmal anatomical conditions remain probably the most predictive factor that should be carefully evaluated to offer the best treatment. Unfavorable anatomy has been observed to be associated with more complications especially endoleak, leading to more re-interventions and higher risk of late mortality. Nevertheless, technological advances have made surgeons move forward beyond the set barriers. Thus, more endografts are implanted outside the instructions for use despite excellent results after open repair especially in low-risk patients. When debating about AAA repair, some other crucial points should be analysed. It has been shown that strict surveillance is mandatory after EVAR to offer durable results and prevent late rupture. Such program is associated with additional costs and with increased risk of radiation. Moreover, a risk of loss of renal function exists when repetitive imaging and secondary procedures are required. The aim of this article is to review the data associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm and its treatment in order to establish selection criteria to decide between open or endovascular repair.

Pédiatrie: nouveautés en médecine 2007 [Pediatrics]

Cette année, nous avons résumé les avances dans deux pathologies très fréquentes et deux plus rares : 1) la cryptorchidie est opérée plus précocement sans utiliser des hormones. Ce traitement vise à assurer la fertilité et à éviter le développement de tumeurs testiculaires. 2) Dans le traitement de la pharyngite streptococcique, les céphalosporines orales durant quatre à cinq jours, peuvent remplacer la pénicilline. 3) Le carvédilol (bêtabloquant), le lévosimendan (sensibilisateur du calcium) et le nésiritide (analogue du peptide natriurétique) permettent une approche neurohormonale à l'insuffisance cardiaque. 4) Les glucocorticoïdes administrés tôt et une prise en charge multidisciplinaire ralentissent le cours de la dystrophie musculaire de Duchenne. This article summarizes the medical progress achieved in 2 frequent and 2 rare pathologies: 1. Cryptorchidism should be operated around 12 months of age and hormonal treatment abandoned in order to maintain fertility and avoid development of testicular tumors. 2. For the treatment of streptococcal pharyngitis oral cephalosporins for 4 to 5 days are equivalent to a Penicillin treatment of 10 days. 3. Thanks to carvedilol (a beta-blocker agent), levosimendan (a calcium sensibiliser) and nesiritide (an analog to the natriuretic peptide) a new hormonal approach to cardiac failure is possible. 4. Corticosteroids allow to improve quality of live and life expectancy in Duchenne muscular dystrophy, provided treatment starts early and a multidisciplinary approach is assured

Circulating microRNAs as novel biomarkers for diabetes mellitus.

Diabetes mellitus is characterized by insulin secretion from pancreatic β cells that is insufficient to maintain blood glucose homeostasis. Autoimmune destruction of β cells results in type 1 diabetes mellitus, whereas conditions that reduce insulin sensitivity and negatively affect β-cell activities result in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Without proper management, patients with diabetes mellitus develop serious complications that reduce their quality of life and life expectancy. Biomarkers for early detection of the disease and identification of individuals at risk of developing complications would greatly improve the care of these patients. Small non-coding RNAs called microRNAs (miRNAs) control gene expression and participate in many physiopathological processes. Hundreds of miRNAs are actively or passively released in the circulation and can be used to evaluate health status and disease progression. Both type 1 diabetes mellitus and type 2 diabetes mellitus are associated with distinct modifications in the profile of miRNAs in the blood, which are sometimes detectable several years before the disease manifests. Moreover, circulating levels of certain miRNAs seem to be predictive of long-term complications. Technical and scientific obstacles still exist that need to be overcome, but circulating miRNAs might soon become part of the diagnostic arsenal to identify individuals at risk of developing diabetes mellitus and its devastating complications.

Mechanical circulatory support for destination therapy.

Patients with chronic heart failure who are not eligible for heart transplant and whose life expectancy depends mainly on the heart disease may benefit from mechanical circulatory support. Mechanical circulatory support restores adequate cardiac output and organ perfusion and eventually improves patients' clinical condition, quality of life and life expectancy. This treatment is called destination therapy (DT) and we estimate that in Switzerland more than 120 patients per year could benefit from it. In the last 10 years, design of the devices, implantation techniques and prognoses have changed dramatically. The key to successful therapy with a left ventricular assist device is appropriate patient selection, although we are still working on the definition of reliable inclusion and exclusion criteria and optimal timing for surgical implantation. Devices providing best long-term results are continuous flow, rotary or axial blood pumps implanted using minimally invasive techniques on a beating heart. These new devices (Thoratec HeartMate II and HeartWare HVAD) have only a single moving part, and have improved durability with virtually 10 years freedom from mechanical failure. In selected patients, the overall actuarial survival of DT patients is 75% at 1 year and 62% at 2 years, with a clear improvement in quality of life compared with medical management only. Complications include bleeding and infections; their overall incidence is significantly lower than with previous devices and their management is well defined. DT is evolving into an effective and reasonably cost-effective treatment option for a growing population of patients not eligible for heart transplant, showing encouraging survival rates at 2 years and providing clear improvement in quality of life. The future is bright for people suffering from chronic heart failure.

Epidemiology and prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Seychelles Islands (Indian Ocean)

This article presents selected findings and lessons from a cardiovascular research and prevention program initiated in 1989 in the Republic of Seychelles, a country in demographic and epidemiological transition. Rapid and sustained aging of the population (e.g., two-fold increase of people aged 30-39 from 1979 to 1995) implies, over the next few decades, further dramatic increase of the burden of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD). Epidemiological surveillance shows high age-specific rates of CVD (particularly stroke), high prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis (plaques in carotid and femoral arteries), high prevalence of classical modifiable risk factors in the adult population (particularly hypertension), and substantial proportions of children with overweight. Stagnant life expectancy in men and an increase in women have been observed over the last two decades; this occurred despite largely improved health services and reduced infant mortality rates, and may reflect the large CVD burden found in middle-aged men (less so in middle-aged women). A national program of prevention of CVD has been initiated since 1991, which includes a mix of interventions to reduce risk factors in the general population and in high-risk individuals. Substantial research to back the prevention program indeed shows, at the moment, epidemiological patterns in Seychelles similar to those observed in Western countries (e.g., an association between peripheral atherosclerosis [as a proxy of CVD] and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, smoking, diabetes, and [inversely] walking). This clearly supports the view that promotion of healthy lifestyles and control of conventional risk factors should be the main targets for CVD prevention and control.

Perinatal care at the limit of viability between 22 and 26 completed weeks of gestation in Switzerland.

Perinatal care of pregnant women at high risk for preterm delivery and of preterm infants born at the limit of viability (22-26 completed weeks of gestation) requires a multidisciplinary approach by an experienced perinatal team. Limited precision in the determination of both gestational age and foetal weight, as well as biological variability may significantly affect the course of action chosen in individual cases. The decisions that must be taken with the pregnant women and on behalf of the preterm infant in this context are complex and have far-reaching consequences. When counselling pregnant women and their partners, neonatologists and obstetricians should provide them with comprehensive information in a sensitive and supportive way to build a basis of trust. The decisions are developed in a continuing dialogue between all parties involved (physicians, midwives, nursing staff and parents) with the principal aim to find solutions that are in the infant's and pregnant woman's best interest. Knowledge of current gestational age-specific mortality and morbidity rates and how they are modified by prenatally known prognostic factors (estimated foetal weight, sex, exposure or nonexposure to antenatal corticosteroids, single or multiple births) as well as the application of accepted ethical principles form the basis for responsible decision-making. Communication between all parties involved plays a central role. The members of the interdisciplinary working group suggest that the care of preterm infants with a gestational age between 22 0/7 and 23 6/7 weeks should generally be limited to palliative care. Obstetric interventions for foetal indications such as Caesarean section delivery are usually not indicated. In selected cases, for example, after 23 weeks of pregnancy have been completed and several of the above mentioned prenatally known prognostic factors are favourable or well informed parents insist on the initiation of life-sustaining therapies, active obstetric interventions for foetal indications and provisional intensive care of the neonate may be reasonable. In preterm infants with a gestational age between 24 0/7 and 24 6/7 weeks, it can be difficult to determine whether the burden of obstetric interventions and neonatal intensive care is justified given the limited chances of success of such a therapy. In such cases, the individual constellation of prenatally known factors which impact on prognosis can be helpful in the decision making process with the parents. In preterm infants with a gestational age between 25 0/7 and 25 6/7 weeks, foetal surveillance, obstetric interventions for foetal indications and neonatal intensive care measures are generally indicated. However, if several prenatally known prognostic factors are unfavourable and the parents agree, primary non-intervention and neonatal palliative care can be considered. All pregnant women with threatening preterm delivery or premature rupture of membranes at the limit of viability must be transferred to a perinatal centre with a level III neonatal intensive care unit no later than 23 0/7 weeks of gestation, unless emergency delivery is indicated. An experienced neonatology team should be involved in all deliveries that take place after 23 0/7 weeks of gestation to help to decide together with the parents if the initiation of intensive care measures appears to be appropriate or if preference should be given to palliative care (i.e., primary non-intervention). In doubtful situations, it can be reasonable to initiate intensive care and to admit the preterm infant to a neonatal intensive care unit (i.e., provisional intensive care). The infant's clinical evolution and additional discussions with the parents will help to clarify whether the life-sustaining therapies should be continued or withdrawn. Life support is continued as long as there is reasonable hope for survival and the infant's burden of intensive care is acceptable. If, on the other hand, the health care team and the parents have to recognise that in the light of a very poor prognosis the burden of the currently used therapies has become disproportionate, intensive care measures are no longer justified and other aspects of care (e.g., relief of pain and suffering) are the new priorities (i.e., redirection of care). If a decision is made to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining therapies, the health care team should focus on comfort care for the dying infant and support for the parents.

Principes d'evaluation et de prise en charge des patients agés polymorbides: guide a l'intention des cliniciens [Principles for the assessment and management of polymorbid elderly patients: a guide for clinicians].

Providing care to multimorbid older patients is complex, not only because of the coexistence of multiple chronic conditions, but also because of their frequent intrication with psychological and social problems. This article describes a guide for clinicians to assess and manage multimorbid older patients. This guide was adapted from the work of a group of expert US geriatricians. It proposes seven steps: identification of the main problem; identification of patients' preferences; setting of goals of care; estimation of life expectancy; identification of relevant evidence in the literature; revision of the plan of care; and discussion of the options with the patient. The use of this guide is illustrated by a clinical case.