49 resultados para individual-specific uncertainty
Resumo:
This study deals with the psychological processes underlying the selection of appropriate strategy during exploratory behavior. A new device was used to assess sexual dimorphisms in spatial abilities that do not depend on spatial rotation, map reading or directional vector extraction capacities. Moreover, it makes it possible to investigate exploratory behavior as a specific response to novelty that trades off risk and reward. Risk management under uncertainty was assessed through both spontaneous searching strategies and signal detection capacities. The results of exploratory behavior, detection capacities, and decision-making strategies seem to indicate that women's exploratory behavior is based on risk-reducing behavior while men behavior does not appear to be influenced by this variable. This difference was interpreted as a difference in information processing modifying beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events, and therefore influencing risk evaluation.
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Two mutually exclusive hypotheses have been put forward to explain the evolution and adaptive function of melanin-based color traits. According to sexual selection theory melanism is a directionally selected signal of individual quality, whereas theory on the maintenance of genetic polymorphism proposes that alternative melanin-based variants achieve equal fitness. Alpine swift (Apus melba) males and females have a conspicuous patch of white feathers on the breast with their rachis varying continuously from white to black, and hence the breast varies from white to striated. If this trait is a sexually selected signal of quality, its expression should be condition dependent and the degree of melanism directionally selected. If variation in melanism is a polymorphism, its expression should be genetically determined and fitness of melanin-based variants equal. We experimentally tested these predictions by exchanging eggs or hatchlings between randomly chosen nests and by estimating survival and reproduction in relation to melanism. We found that breast melanism is heritable and that the environment and body condition do not significantly influence its expression. Between 5 and 50 days of age nestlings were heavier and their wings longer when breast feathers of their biological father were blacker, and they also fledged at a younger age. This shows that aspects of offspring quality covary positively with the degree of melanism. However, this did not result in directional selection because nestling survival and recruitment in the local breeding population were not associated with father breast melanism. Furthermore, adult survival, age at first reproduction and probability of skipping reproduction did not covary with the degree of melanism. Genetic variation in breast melanism is therefore maintained either because nonmelanic males achieve fitness similar to melanic males via a different route than producing fast-growing offspring, or because the advantage of producing fast-growing offspring is not sufficiently pronounced to result in directional selection.
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A recent study suggests that sex-specific dispersal rates can be quantitatively estimated on the basis of sex- and state-specific (pre- vs. postdispersal) F-statistics. In the present paper, we extend this approach to account for the hierarchical structure of natural populations, and we validate it through individual-based simulations. The model is applied to an empirical data set consisting of 536 individuals (males, females, and predispersal juveniles) of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula), sampled according to a hierarchical design and typed for seven autosomal microsatellite loci. From this dataset, dispersal is significantly female biased at the local scale (breeding-group level), but not at the larger scale (among local populations). We argue that selective pressures on dispersal are likely to depend on the spatial scale considered, and that short-distance dispersal should mainly respond to kin interactions (inbreeding or kin competition avoidance), which exert differential pressure on males and females.
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In groundwater applications, Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the uncertainty on geological parameters. However, their brute-force application becomes computationally prohibitive for highly detailed geological descriptions, complex physical processes, and a large number of realizations. The Distance Kernel Method (DKM) overcomes this issue by clustering the realizations in a multidimensional space based on the flow responses obtained by means of an approximate (computationally cheaper) model; then, the uncertainty is estimated from the exact responses that are computed only for one representative realization per cluster (the medoid). Usually, DKM is employed to decrease the size of the sample of realizations that are considered to estimate the uncertainty. We propose to use the information from the approximate responses for uncertainty quantification. The subset of exact solutions provided by DKM is then employed to construct an error model and correct the potential bias of the approximate model. Two error models are devised that both employ the difference between approximate and exact medoid solutions, but differ in the way medoid errors are interpolated to correct the whole set of realizations. The Local Error Model rests upon the clustering defined by DKM and can be seen as a natural way to account for intra-cluster variability; the Global Error Model employs a linear interpolation of all medoid errors regardless of the cluster to which the single realization belongs. These error models are evaluated for an idealized pollution problem in which the uncertainty of the breakthrough curve needs to be estimated. For this numerical test case, we demonstrate that the error models improve the uncertainty quantification provided by the DKM algorithm and are effective in correcting the bias of the estimate computed solely from the MsFV results. The framework presented here is not specific to the methods considered and can be applied to other combinations of approximate models and techniques to select a subset of realizations
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Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between complications of pregnancy and delivery and schizophrenia, but none have had sufficient power to examine specific complications that, individually, are of low prevalence. We, therefore, performed an individual patient meta-analysis using the raw data from case control studies that used the Lewis-Murray scale. Data were obtained from 12 studies on 700 schizophrenia subjects and 835 controls. There were significant associations between schizophrenia and premature rupture of membranes, gestational age shorter than 37 weeks, and use of resuscitation or incubator. There were associations of borderline significance between schizophrenia and birthweight lower than 2,500 g and forceps delivery. There was no significant interaction between these complications and sex. We conclude that some abnormalities of pregnancy and delivery may be associated with development of schizophrenia. The pathophysiology may involve hypoxia and so future studies should focus on the accurate measurement of this exposure.
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Phenotypic and functional cell properties are usually analyzed at the level of defined cell populations but not single cells. Yet, large differences between individual cells may have important functional consequences. It is likely that T-cell-mediated immunity depends on the polyfunctionality of individual T cells, rather than the sum of functions of responding T-cell subpopulations. We performed highly sensitive single-cell gene expression profiling, allowing the direct ex vivo characterization of individual virus-specific and tumor-specific T cells from healthy donors and melanoma patients. We have previously shown that vaccination with the natural tumor peptide Melan-A-induced T cells with superior effector functions as compared with vaccination with the analog peptide optimized for enhanced HLA-A*0201 binding. Here we found that natural peptide vaccination induced tumor-reactive CD8 T cells with frequent coexpression of both memory/homing-associated genes (CD27, IL7R, EOMES, CXCR3, and CCR5) and effector-related genes (IFNG, KLRD1, PRF1, and GZMB), comparable with protective Epstein-Barr virus-specific and cytomegalovirus-specific T cells. In contrast, memory/homing-associated and effector-associated genes were less frequently coexpressed after vaccination with the analog peptide. Remarkably, these findings reveal a previously unknown level of gene expression diversity among vaccine-specific and virus-specific T cells with the simultaneous coexpression of multiple memory/homing-related and effector-related genes by the same cell. Such broad functional gene expression signatures within antigen-specific T cells may be critical for mounting efficient responses to pathogens or tumors. In summary, direct ex vivo high-resolution molecular characterization of individual T cells provides key insights into the processes shaping the functional properties of tumor-specific and virus-specific T cells.
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Recognition and identification processes for deceased persons. Determining the identity of deceased persons is a routine task performed essentially by police departments and forensic experts. This thesis highlights the processes necessary for the proper and transparent determination of the civil identities of deceased persons. The identity of a person is defined as the establishment of a link between that person ("the source") and information pertaining to the same individual ("identifiers"). Various identity forms could emerge, depending on the nature of the identifiers. There are two distinct types of identity, namely civil identity and biological identity. The paper examines four processes: identification by witnesses (the recognition process) and comparisons of fingerprints, dental data and DNA profiles (the identification processes). During the recognition process, the memory function is examined and helps to clarify circumstances that may give rise to errors. To make the process more rigorous, a body presentation procedure is proposed to investigators. Before examining the other processes, three general concepts specific to forensic science are considered with regard to the identification of a deceased person, namely, matter divisibility (Inman and Rudin), transfer (Locard) and uniqueness (Kirk). These concepts can be applied to the task at hand, although some require a slightly broader scope of application. A cross comparison of common forensic fields and the identification of deceased persons reveals certain differences, including 1 - reverse positioning of the source (i.e. the source is not sought from traces, but rather the identifiers are obtained from the source); 2 - the need for civil identity determination in addition to the individualisation stage; and 3 - a more restricted population (closed set), rather than an open one. For fingerprints, dental and DNA data, intravariability and intervariability are examined, as well as changes in these post mortem (PM) identifiers. Ante-mortem identifiers (AM) are located and AM-PM comparisons made. For DNA, it has been shown that direct identifiers (taken from a person whose civil identity has been alleged) tend to lead to determining civil identity whereas indirect identifiers (obtained from a close relative) direct towards a determination of biological identity. For each process, a Bayesian model is presented which includes sources of uncertainty deemed to be relevant. The results of the different processes combine to structure and summarise an overall outcome and a methodology. The modelling of dental data presents a specific difficulty with respect to intravariability, which in itself is not quantifiable. The concept of "validity" is, therefore, suggested as a possible solution to the problem. Validity uses various parameters that have an acknowledged impact on teeth intravariability. In cases where identifying deceased persons proves to be extremely difficult due to the limited discrimination of certain procedures, the use of a Bayesian approach is of great value in bringing a transparent and synthetic value. RESUME : Titre: Processus de reconnaissance et d'identification de personnes décédées. L'individualisation de personnes décédées est une tâche courante partagée principalement par des services de police, des odontologues et des laboratoires de génétique. L'objectif de cette recherche est de présenter des processus pour déterminer valablement, avec une incertitude maîtrisée, les identités civiles de personnes décédées. La notion d'identité est examinée en premier lieu. L'identité d'une personne est définie comme l'établissement d'un lien entre cette personne et des informations la concernant. Les informations en question sont désignées par le terme d'identifiants. Deux formes distinctes d'identité sont retenues: l'identité civile et l'identité biologique. Quatre processus principaux sont examinés: celui du témoignage et ceux impliquant les comparaisons d'empreintes digitales, de données dentaires et de profils d'ADN. Concernant le processus de reconnaissance, le mode de fonctionnement de la mémoire est examiné, démarche qui permet de désigner les paramètres pouvant conduire à des erreurs. Dans le but d'apporter un cadre rigoureux à ce processus, une procédure de présentation d'un corps est proposée à l'intention des enquêteurs. Avant d'entreprendre l'examen des autres processus, les concepts généraux propres aux domaines forensiques sont examinés sous l'angle particulier de l'identification de personnes décédées: la divisibilité de la matière (Inman et Rudin), le transfert (Locard) et l'unicité (Kirk). Il est constaté que ces concepts peuvent être appliqués, certains nécessitant toutefois un léger élargissement de leurs principes. Une comparaison croisée entre les domaines forensiques habituels et l'identification de personnes décédées montre des différences telles qu'un positionnement inversé de la source (la source n'est plus à rechercher en partant de traces, mais ce sont des identifiants qui sont recherchés en partant de la source), la nécessité de devoir déterminer une identité civile en plus de procéder à une individualisation ou encore une population d'intérêt limitée plutôt qu'ouverte. Pour les empreintes digitales, les dents et l'ADN, l'intra puis l'inter-variabilité sont examinées, de même que leurs modifications post-mortem (PM), la localisation des identifiants ante-mortem (AM) et les comparaisons AM-PM. Pour l'ADN, il est démontré que les identifiants directs (provenant de la personne dont l'identité civile est supposée) tendent à déterminer une identité civile alors que les identifiants indirects (provenant d'un proche parent) tendent à déterminer une identité biologique. Puis une synthèse des résultats provenant des différents processus est réalisée grâce à des modélisations bayesiennes. Pour chaque processus, une modélisation est présentée, modélisation intégrant les paramètres reconnus comme pertinents. À ce stade, une difficulté apparaît: celle de quantifier l'intra-variabilité dentaire pour laquelle il n'existe pas de règle précise. La solution préconisée est celle d'intégrer un concept de validité qui intègre divers paramètres ayant un impact connu sur l'intra-variabilité. La possibilité de formuler une valeur de synthèse par l'approche bayesienne s'avère d'une aide précieuse dans des cas très difficiles pour lesquels chacun des processus est limité en termes de potentiel discriminant.
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Studies of behaviour are increasingly focusing on acquisition of traits through cultural inheritance. Comparison of patterns of spatial population structure (FST) between neutral genetic loci and behavioural or cultural traits can been used to test hypotheses about demography, life history, and the mechanisms of inheritance/transmission of these traits in humans, chimpanzees and other animals. Here, we develop analytical expectations to show how FST in cultural traits can differ strongly from that measured at neutral genetic markers if migration is largely restricted to one sex but social learning is predominantly modelled on the other (e.g. males migrate, females serve as models for cultural traits), if one individual is the learning model for many, or if rates of innovation (individual learning) are high or rates of social learning are low. We discuss how comparisons of FST between genetic loci and behavioural traits can be applied to evaluate the importance of innovation in shaping patterns of cultural differentiation, as even low rates of innovation can considerably reduce FST, relative to observed structure at neutral genetic loci. Our results also suggest that differentiation in neutral cultural traits should occur over much smaller scales in species with male migration and female enculturation (or the reverse).
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Patient-specific quality of life indices show great potential, but certain conceptual and methodological concerns have yet to be fully addressed. The present study reviewed nine patient-specific instruments used in musculoskeletal disorders: the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure (COPM), Juvenile Arthritis Quality of life Questionnaire (JAQQ), McMaster-Toronto Arthritis questionnaire (MACTAR), Measure Yourself Medical Outcome Profile (MYMOP), Patient-Specific Index (PASI) for total hip arthroplasty, Problem Elicitation Technique (PET), Patient Generated Index (PGI) of quality of life, Patient-Specific Functional Scale (PSFS), and Schedule for the Evaluation of Individual Quality of Life (SEIQoL). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Each tool was evaluated for purpose, content validity, face validity, feasibility, psychometric properties, and responsiveness. RESULTS: This critical appraisal revealed important differences in terms of the concept underlying these indices, the domains covered, the item-generation techniques and the scoring (response scale, methods) in each scale. The nine indices would generate different responses and likely scores for the same patient, despite the fact that they all include patient-generated items. CONCLUSION: Although the value of these indices in treatment planning and monitoring at an individual level is strong, more studies are needed to improve our understanding of how to interpret the numeric scores of patient-specific indices at both an individual and a group level.
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Prior the middle of the 90', interviewing participants in protest events was quiet rare. INdividual SUrveys in RAllies (INSURA) did enter the social researcher's usual toolkit only in the following decade after Favre, Fillieule and Mayer (1997) conducted such a survey with as a primary ambition to build a solid methodological framework that could be subsequently applied by other researchers. After some years of intensive use of INSURA, one is entitled to wonder whether that technique has fulfilled social researchers' hopes or not. In that paper, results of a collective work on alter-global rallies in Evian and Saint- Denis are used to answer three interrelated questions. Firstly, some basic methodological questions about how to collect data on crowds are adressed. What are the specific constraints of interviewing people at the very moment they are "expressing" a political opinion? What specific constraints result from the morphology of the covered events, that is to say, how to build a valid sampling frame? The authors then turn to a more general point about the questions that can be solved, or not, using that technique. Secondly it is the strenghts and weaknesses of INSURA in exploring the transnational dimension of alter global protests that is adressed. The authors show that INSURA is certainly well suited to explore the demographics of alter-global events, as well as relational networks of individuals and multiple belongings. On the contrary, it is assumed that organization networks and movement's boundaries are far more difficult to explore through that method, a fact that seriously limits international cross comparisons of events and movements based on that tool.
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Extensive population-based genome-wide association studies have identified an association between the FTO gene and BMI; however, the mechanism of action is still unknown. To determine whether FTO may influence weight regulation through psychological and behavioral factors, seven single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the FTO gene were genotyped in 1,085 individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) and 677 healthy weight controls from the international Price Foundation Genetic Studies of Eating Disorders. Each SNP was tested in association with eating disorder phenotypes and measures that have previously been associated with eating behavior pathology: trait anxiety, harm-avoidance, novelty seeking, impulsivity, obsessionality, compulsivity, and concern over mistakes. After appropriate correction for multiple comparisons, no significant associations between individual FTO gene SNPs and eating disorder phenotypes or related eating behavior pathology were identified in cases or controls. Thus, this study found no evidence that FTO gene variants associated with weight regulation in the general population are associated with eating disorder phenotypes in AN participants or matched controls. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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BACKGROUND: Many studies have tracked the distribution and persistence of avian haemosporidian communities across space and time at the population level, but few studies have investigated these aspects of infection at the individual level over time. Important aspects of parasite infection at the individual level can be missed if only trends at the population level are studied. This study aimed to determine how persistent Haemosporida are in great tit individuals recaptured over several years, whether parasitaemia differed by parasite lineage (mitochondrial cytochrome b haplotype) and how co-infection (i.e. concurrent infection with multiple genera of parasites) affects parasitaemia and body mass. METHODS: Parasite prevalence was determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), quantitative PCR were used to assess parasitaemia and sequencing was employed to determine the identity of the lineages using the MalAvi database. RESULTS: Haemosporidian prevalence was high over sampled years with 98% of 55 recaptured individuals showing infection in at least one year of capture. Eighty-two percent of all positive individuals suffered co-infection, with an overall haemosporidian lineage diversity of seventeen. Plasmodium and Haemoproteus parasites were found to be highly persistent, with lineages from these genera consistently found in individuals across years and with no differences in individual parasitaemia being recorded at subsequent captures. Conversely, Leucocytozoon parasites showed higher turnover with regard to lineage changes or transitions in infection status (infected vs non-infected) across years. Parasitaemia was found to be lineage specific and there was no relationship between Plasmodium parasitaemia or host body condition and the presence of Leucocytozoon parasites. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that different genera of haemosporidian parasites interact differently with their host and other co-infecting parasites, influencing parasite persistence most likely through inter-parasite competition or host-parasite immune interactions. Even-though co-infections do not seem to result in increased virulence (higher parasitaemia or poorer host body condition), further investigation into infection potential of these parasites, both individually and as co-infections, is necessary.
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Nanotechnology encompasses the design, characterisation, production and application of materials and systems by controlling shape and size at the nanoscale (nanometres). Nanomaterials may differ from other materials because of their relatively large specific surface area, such that surface properties become particularly important. There has been rapid growth in investment in nanotechnology by both the public and private sectors worldwide. In the EU, nanotechnology is expected to become an important strategic contributor to achieving economic gain and societal and individual benefits. At the same time there is continuing scientific uncertainty and controversy about the safety of nanomaterials. It is important to ensure that timely policy development takes this into consideration. Uncertainty about safety may lead to polarised public debate and to business unwillingness to invest further. A clear regulatory framework to address potential health and environmental impacts, within the wider context of evaluating and communicating the benefit-risk balance, must be a core part of Europe's integrated efforts for nanotechnology innovation. While a number of studies have been carried out on the effect of environmental nanoparticles, e.g. from combustion processes, on human health, there is yet no generally acceptable paradigm for safety assessment of nanomaterials in consumer and other products. Therefore, a working group was established to consider issues for the possible impact of nanomaterials on human health focussing specifically on engineered nanomaterials. This represents the first joint initiative between EASAC and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The working group was given the remit to describe the state of the art of benefits and potential risks, current methods for safety assessment, and to evaluate their relevance, identify knowledge gaps in studying the safety of current nanomaterials, and recommend on priorities for nanomaterial research and the regulatory framework. This report focuses on key principles and issues, cross-referencing other sources for detailed information, rather than attempting a comprehensive account of the science. The focus is on human health although environmental effects are also discussed when directly relevant to health
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BACKGROUND: Only few countries have cohorts enabling specific and up-to-date cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. Individual risk assessment based on study samples that differ too much from the target population could jeopardize the benefit of risk charts in general practice. Our aim was to provide up-to-date and valid CVD risk estimation for a Swiss population using a novel record linkage approach. METHODS: Anonymous record linkage was used to follow-up (for mortality, until 2008) 9,853 men and women aged 25-74 years who participated in the Swiss MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CVD) study of 1983-92. The linkage success was 97.8%, loss to follow-up 1990-2000 was 4.7%. Based on the ESC SCORE methodology (Weibull regression), we used age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol to generate three models. We compared the 1) original SCORE model with a 2) recalibrated and a 3) new model using the Brier score (BS) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Based on the cross-validated BS, the new model (BS = 14107×10(-6)) was somewhat more appropriate for risk estimation than the original (BS = 14190×10(-6)) and the recalibrated (BS = 14172×10(-6)) model. Particularly at younger age, derived absolute risks were consistently lower than those from the original and the recalibrated model which was mainly due to a smaller impact of total cholesterol. CONCLUSION: Using record linkage of observational and routine data is an efficient procedure to obtain valid and up-to-date CVD risk estimates for a specific population.
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Cette thèse porte sur la contribution des caractéristiques individuelles et des situations professionnelles au bien-être. En combinant différentes perspectives théoriques, notamment la théorie de la construction de la carrière, la théorie de la justice organisationnelle, les modèles du bien-être au travail, et les conceptualisations de l'incivilité au travail, un certain nombre d'hypothèses sont proposées concernant le lien entre certaines caractéristiques individuelles et situationnelles et le bien-être général et professionnel. Les deux premières études se focalisent sur la validation d'une échelle d'adaptabilités de carrière et sur le rôle médiateur de cette adaptabilité dans la relation entre des dispositions et le bien-être. La troisième étude évolue l'hypothèse d'un possible effet de médiation de l'adaptabilité mais cette fois de la relation entre insécurité professionnelle et charge de travail d'une part et le bien-être d'autre part. La quatrième étude adopte une perspective longitudinale et analyse les associations entre les dimensions de la personnalité, l'adaptabilité de carrière et le bien-être dans quatre parcours professionnels différents. La cinquième étude porte sur une autre caractéristique individuelle, à savoir la croyance en un monde juste. Cette étude illustre comment la croyance en un monde juste influence les perceptions de justice organisationnelle une année après, qui ont une incidence importante sur le bien-être. Enfin, la dernière étude se concentre sur une population spécifique, les immigrants en Suisse, et souligne qu'être la cible d'incivilité sur le lieu de travail est généralement liée au pays d'origine. Globalement, cette thèse met en évidence que les caractéristiques individuelles ont des effets tant directs qu'indirects sur le bien-être et que ces mêmes caractéristiques explique en partie, les relations entre la situation professionnelle et le bien-être. Plus spécifiquement, des situations professionnelles peuvent influencer l'expression de certaines caractéristiques individuelles, soit en contribuant à leurs activations ou à leurs inhibitions. De plus, l'impact des caractéristiques individuelles sur le bien-être semble dépendre de la situation professionnelle. Il est donc important de considérer les influences simultanées et réciproques des caractéristiques individuelles et de la situation contextuelle et professionnelle pour rendre compte du bien-être général et professionnel. -- This thesis explores how individual characteristics and professional situations correspond to well-being. Drawing from various theoretical backgrounds, such as career construction theory, justice theory, models of job strain, and theories on subtle discrimination, a number of specific hypotheses are put forward pertaining to a selection of individual and professional aspects as well as general and work-related well-being. The six studies presented in this thesis focus on specific aspects and adopt different methodological and theoretical approaches. The first two studies concern the validation of the career adapt-abilities scale and test the potential of career adapt-abilities to mediate the relationship between dispositions and outcomes. The third study extends the hypothesis of career adapt-abilities as a mediator and finds that it mediates the effects of job insecurity and job strain on general and professional well-being. The fourth study adopts a longitudinal approach and tests the associations between personality traits and career adaptability and well-being in four different professional situations. Study five concerns another individual characteristic, belief in a just world, and illustrates how justice beliefs drive perceptions of organizational justice, which in turn impact, on well-being outcomes one year later. The final study focuses on the professional experiences of a specific population, immigrants in Switzerland, and confirms that being a target of incivilities is related to national origin. Globally, this thesis finds that individual characteristics have direct and indirect influences on well-being and that these characteristics may also mediate the associations between professional situations and outcomes. In particular, the professional situation may alter the display of individual characteristics, either by contributing to their activation or their depletion, and the ways in which individual factors influence well-being does seem to depend on the professional situation. It is thus necessary to adopt a "both...and" perspective when studying the impact of individual and professional characteristics as these factors mutually influence each other.