Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.

Breeding system and genetic variance in the monogamous, semi-social shrew, Crocidura russula

The population-genetic consequences of monogamy and male philopatry (a rare breeding system in mammals) were investigated using microsatellite markers in the semisocial and anthropophilic shrew Crocidura russula. A hierarchical sampling design over a 16-km geographical transect revealed a large genetic diversity (h = 0.813) with significant differentiation among subpopulations (F-ST = 5-6%), which suggests an exchange of 4.4 migrants per generation. Demic effective-size estimates were very high, due both to this limited gene inflow and to the inner structure of subpopulations. These were made of 13-20 smaller units (breeding groups), comprising an estimate of four breeding pairs each. Members of the same breeding groups displayed significant coancestries (F-LS = 9-10%), which was essentially due to strong male kinship: syntopic males were on average related at the half-sib level. Female dispersal among breeding groups was not complete (similar to 39%), and insufficient to prevent inbreeding. From our results, the breeding strategy of C. russula seems less efficient than classical mammalian systems (polygyny and male dispersal) in disentangling coancestry from inbreeding, but more so in retaining genetic variance.

State power and protected areas: Dynamics and contradictions of forest conservation in Madhya Pradesh, India

The traditionally coercive and state-controlled governance of protected areas for nature conservation in developing countries has in many cases undergone change in the context of widespread decentralization and liberalization. This article examines an emerging "mixed" (coercive, community- and market-oriented) conservation approach in managed-resource protected areas and its effects on state power through a case study on forest protection in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. The findings suggest that imperfect decentralization and partial liberalization resulted in changed forms, rather than uniform loss, of state power. A forest co-management program paradoxically strengthened local capacity and influence of the Forest Department, which generally maintained its territorial and knowledge-based control over forests and timber management. Furthermore, deregulation and reregulation enabled the state to withdraw from uneconomic activities but also implied reduced place-based control of non-timber forest products. Generally, the new policies and programs contributed to the separation of livelihoods and forests in Madhya Pradesh. The article concludes that regulatory, community- and market-based initiatives would need to be better coordinated to lead to more effective nature conservation and positive livelihood outcomes.

Tawny Owl Strix aluco as a bioindicator of Barn Owl Tyto alba breeding and the effect of winter severity on Barn Owl reproduction

In the temperate zone, food availability and winter weather place serious constraints on European Barn Owl Tyto alba populations. Using data collected over 22years in a Swiss population, we analysed the influence of early pre-breeding food conditions and winter severity on between-year variations in population size and reproductive performance. To estimate pre-breeding food conditions, we attempted a novel approach based on an index that combines Tawny Owl Strix aluco reproductive parameters and the occurrence of wood mice Apodemus sp. in their diet. Tawny Owls breed earlier in the season than Barn Owls and are strongly dependent on the abundance of wood mice for breeding. This index was strongly positively associated with the number of breeding pairs and early breeding in the Barn Owl. Winter severity, measured by snow cover and low temperatures, had a pronounced negative influence on the size of the breeding population and clutch size. Food conditions early in the breeding season and winter severity differentially affect the Barn Owl life cycle. We were able to use aspects of the ecology and demography of the Tawny Owl as an indicator of the quality of the environment for a related species of similar ecology, in this case the Barn Owl.

'Good-genes' and 'compatible-genes' effects in an Alpine whitefish and the information content of breeding tubercles over the course of the spawning season.

Some models of sexual selection predict that individuals vary in their genetic quality and reveal some of this variation in their secondary sexual characteristics. Alpine whitefish (Coregonus sp.) develop breeding tubercles shortly before their spawning season. These tubercles are epidermal structures that are distributed regularly along the body sides of both males and females. There is still much unexplained variation in the size of breeding tubercles within both sexes and with much overlap between the sexes. It has been suggested that breeding tubercles function to maintain body contact between the mating partners during spawning, act as weapons for defence of spawning territories, or are sexual signals that reveal aspects of genetic quality. We took two samples of whitefish from their spawning place, one at the beginning and one around the peak of spawning season. We found that females have on average smaller breeding tubercles than males, and that tubercle size partly reveals the stage of gonad maturation. Two independent full-factorial breeding experiments revealed that embryo mortality was significantly influenced by male and female effects. This finding demonstrates that the males differed in their genetic quality (because offspring get nothing but genes from their fathers). Tubercle size was negatively linked to some aspects of embryo mortality in the first breeding experiment but not significantly so in the second. This lack of consistency adds to inconsistent results that were reported before and suggests that (i) some aspects of genetic quality are not revealed in breeding tubercles while others are, or (ii) individuals vary in their signaling strategies and the information content of breeding tubercles is not always reliable. Moreover, the fact that female whitefish have breeding tubercles of significant size while males seem to have few reasons to be choosy suggests that the tubercles might also serve some functions that are not linked to sexual signaling.

Diet and breeding success of long-eared owls in a semi-arid environment

Only a few studies, and mostly in temperate climates in Europe, have examined the breeding and diet of long-eared owls (Asia otus) compared to studies of cavity-breeding owls, possibly because of the difficulties in reaching the nests of the former. Here we studied a population of long-eared owls, monitoring the diet of breeding owls and that of owls at a communal roost, every two to three months during 2006 -2009, in a semi-arid region in Israel. It was found that the studied owls produced more young than in most countries in Europe. Diet was not associated with breeding parameters of the owls, whereas laying date was negatively correlated with both clutch size and number of nestlings. We found that more social voles (Microtus socialis) and fewer birds and house mice (Mus musculus) made up the diet at nests than that of adults at the roosts. The diet and breeding of long-eared owls in Israel differ from that in Europe, with birds and mice comprising an important part of the diet, in addition to voles.

Old ferricrete landscape dismantling in Central Africa rain forest zone: formation of the present downslope iron accumulations.

Present downslope iron accumulations were investigated in the rainforest zone in southern Cameroon. Six clay and Fe-hydroxide dominated patterns have been identified and occur on the lower part of hill slopes. They can be subdivided in three different sequences, related to gentle, moderate or steep slopes. They are discontinuous with respect to the dismantling zone of the old ferricrete cap formed at Cretaceous period. They show a gradual development from a soft Fe-crust (carapace) to a vesicular facies that will, with time, cover the whole landscape again.

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

Do PES Improve the Governance of Forest Restoration?

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) are praised as innovative policy instruments and they influence the governance of forest restoration efforts in two major ways. The first is the establishment of multi-stakeholder agencies as intermediary bodies between funders and planters to manage the funds and to distribute incentives to planters. The second implication is that specific contracts assign objectives to land users in the form of conditions for payments that are believed to increase the chances for sustained impacts on the ground. These implications are important in the assessment of the potential of PES to operate as new and effective funding schemes for forest restoration. They are analyzed by looking at two prominent payments for watershed service programs in Indonesia-Cidanau (Banten province in Java) and West Lombok (Eastern Indonesia)-with combined economic and political science approaches. We derive lessons for the governance of funding efforts (e.g., multi-stakeholder agencies are not a guarantee of success; mixed results are obtained from a reliance on mandatory funding with ad hoc regulations, as opposed to voluntary contributions by the service beneficiary) and for the governance of financial expenditure (e.g., absolute need for evaluation procedures for the internal governance of farmer groups). Furthermore, we observe that these governance features provide no guarantee that restoration plots with the highest relevance for ecosystem services are targeted by the PES

Male body size and breeding tubercles are both linked to intra-sexual dominance and reproductive success in the minnow

Male dominance hierarchies are usually linked to relative body size and to weapon size, that is, to determinants of fighting ability. Secondary sexual characters that are not directly used as weapons could still be linked to dominance if they reveal determination or overall health and vigour and hence, indirectly, fighting ability. We studied the mating behaviour of the minnow, Phoxinus phoxinus, a cyprinid fish in which males develop breeding tubercles during the spawning season. The function of these breeding tubercles is still not clear. Using microsatellite markers, we determined male reproductive success under controlled conditions. The minnows were territorial and quickly established a dominance hierarchy at the beginning of the spawning season. Dominance was strongly and positively linked to fertilization success. Although body size and number of breeding tubercles were not significantly correlated in our sample, both large males and males with many breeding tubercles were more dominant and achieved higher fertilization success than small males or males with few tubercles. We found multimale fertilization in most clutches, suggesting that sperm competition is important in this species. Females showed behaviour that may be linked to spawning decision, that is, male dominance might not be the only determinant of male reproductive success in minnows

The importance of micro-habitat in the breeding of Barn Owls Tyto alba

Capsule Habitat parameters associated with 706 Barn Owl (Tyto alba) nesting boxes in Israel were analysed. Pairs bred in 259 of the boxes. The intensity of agricultural practices at nestbox sites were shown to have only a weak effect on aspects of Barn Owl breeding in this region.

Opportunity for sexual selection and effective population size in the lek-breeding European treefrog (Hyla arborea).

Sexual selection in lek-breeding species might drastically lower male effective population size, with potentially important consequences for evolutionary and conservation biology. Using field-monitoring and parental-assignment methods, we analyzed sex-specific variances in breeding success in a population of European treefrogs, to (1) help understanding the dynamics of genetic variance at sex-specific loci, and (2) better quantify the risk posed by genetic drift in this species locally endangered by habitat fragmentation. The variance in male mating success turned out to be markedly lower than values obtained from other amphibian species with polygamous mating systems. The ratio of effective breeding size to census breeding size was only slightly lower in males (0.44) than in females (0.57), in line with the patterns of genetic diversity previously reported from H. arborea sex chromosomes. Combining our results with data on age at maturity and adult survival, we show that the negative effect of the mating system is furthermore compensated by the effect of delayed maturity, so that the estimated instantaneous effective size broadly corresponded to census breeding size. We conclude that the lek-breeding system of treefrogs impacts only weakly the patterns of genetic diversity on sex-linked genes and the ability of natural populations to resist genetic drift.

Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology in relation to breeding season climate

Winter weather has a strong influence on Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology. Here, we analyzed the impacts of weather conditions on reproductive performance during the breeding season using data collected over 22 years in a Swiss Barn Owl population. Variations in rain and temperature during the breeding season played an important role in within-year variation in Barn Owl reproduction. An increase in rainfall during the period from 4 to 2 weeks preceding egg laying had a positive effect on clutch size. In contrast, fledgling body mass was negatively influenced by rainfall during the 24 h preceding the measurements. Finally, ambient temperature during the rearing period was positively associated with brood size at fledging. In conclusion, weather conditions during the breeding season place constraints on Barn Owl reproduction.