54 resultados para errors-in-variables model


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BACKGROUND: Advances in nebulizer design have produced both ultrasonic nebulizers and devices based on a vibrating mesh (vibrating mesh nebulizers), which are expected to enhance the efficiency of aerosol drug therapy. The aim of this study was to compare 4 different nebulizers, of 3 different types, in an in vitro model using albuterol delivery and physical characteristics as benchmarks. METHODS: The following nebulizers were tested: Sidestream Disposable jet nebulizer, Multisonic Infra Control ultrasonic nebulizer, and the Aerogen Pro and Aerogen Solo vibrating mesh nebulizers. Aerosol duration, temperature, and drug solution osmolality were measured during nebulization. Albuterol delivery was measured by a high-performance liquid chromatography system with fluorometric detection. The droplet size distribution was analyzed with a laser granulometer. RESULTS: The ultrasonic nebulizer was the fastest device based on the duration of nebulization; the jet nebulizer was the slowest. Solution temperature decreased during nebulization when the jet nebulizer and vibrating mesh nebulizers were used, but it increased with the ultrasonic nebulizer. Osmolality was stable during nebulization with the vibrating mesh nebulizers, but increased with the jet nebulizer and ultrasonic nebulizer, indicating solvent evaporation. Albuterol delivery was 1.6 and 2.3 times higher with the ultrasonic nebulizer and vibrating mesh nebulizers devices, respectively, than with the jet nebulizer. Particle size was significantly higher with the ultrasonic nebulizer. CONCLUSIONS: The in vitro model was effective for comparing nebulizer types, demonstrating important differences between nebulizer types. The new devices, both the ultrasonic nebulizers and vibrating mesh nebulizers, delivered more aerosolized drug than traditional jet nebulizers.

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The thymus is the site of T cell development. Several stromal and hematopoietic cell types are necessary for the proper function of thymic selection and eventually peripheral immunity. Thymic epithelial cells (TECs) are essential for T cell lineage commitment, expansion, and maturation in the thymus. We were interested in developing an in vivo model in which exogenous gene expression could be transiently induced in embryonic TEC (Tet-On system). To this end, we have generated a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) transgenic mouse line in which the reverse tetracycline-dependent transactivator (rtTA) is expressed under the control of the Foxn1 promoter, a transcriptional factor indispensable for TEC development. To analyze the expression pattern and efficiency of this novel mouse model, we crossed the Foxn1-rtTA founder with a Tet-Responsive Element (TRE)-LacZ GFP mouse reporter to obtain a double transgenic mouse. In the presence of doxycycline, rtTA can interact with TRE and induce the expression of GFP and LacZ. In this double transgenic mouse, we observed that GFP expression was high, inducible and limited to TEC in fetal thymus. In contrast, in adult thymus, when TEC development and maturation is completed, GFP was barely detectable. Therefore, Foxn1-rtTA represents a new and efficient transgenic mouse model to induce genes of interest specifically in fetal thymic epithelium. genesis 51:717-724. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

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Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a subtype of stroke characterized by a haematoma within the brain parenchyma resulting from blood vessel rupture and with a poor outcome. In ICH, the blood entry into the brain triggers toxicity resulting in a substantial loss of neurons and an inflammatory response. At the same time, blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption increases water content (edema) leading to growing intracranial pressure, which in turn worsens neurological outcome. Although the clinical presentation is similar in ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, the treatment is different and the stroke type needs to be determined beforehand by imaging which delays the therapy. C-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs) are a family of kinases activated in response to stress stimuli and involved in several pathways such as apoptosis. Specific inhibition of JNK by a TAT-coupled peptide (XG-102) mediates strong neuroprotection in several models of ischemic stroke in rodents. Recently, we have observed that the JNK pathway is also activated in a mouse model of ICH, raising the question of the efficacy of XG-102 in this model. Method: ICH was induced in the mouse by intrastriatal injection of bacterial collagenase (0,1 U). Three hours after surgery, animals received an intravenous injection of 100 mg/kg of XG-102. The neurological outcome was assessed everyday until sacrifice using a score (from 0 to 9) based on 3 behavioral tests performed daily until sacrifice. Then, mice were sacrificed at 6 h, 24 h, 48 h, and 5d after ICH and histological studies performed. Results: The first 24 h after surgery are critical in our ICH mice model, and we have observed that XG-102 significantly improves neurological outcome at this time point (mean score: 1,8 + 1.4 for treated group versus 3,4+ 1.8 for control group, P<0.01). Analysis of the lesion volume revealed a significant decrease of the lesion area in the treated group at 48h (29+ 11mm3 in the treated group versus 39+ 5mm3 in the control group, P=0.04). XG-102 mainly inhibits the edema component of the lesion. Indeed, a significant inhibition Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow & Metabolism (2009) 29, S490-S493 & 2009 ISCBFM All rights reserved 0271-678X/09 $32.00 www.jcbfm.com of the brain swelling was observed in treated animals at 48h (14%+ 13% versus 26+ 9% in the control group, P=0.04) and 5d (_0.3%+ 4.5%versus 5.1+ 3.6%in the control group, P=0.01). Conclusions: Inhibition of the JNK pathway by XG- 102 appears to lead to several beneficial effects. We can show here a significant inhibition of the cerebral edema in the ICH model providing a further beneficial effect of the XG-102 treatment, in addition to the neuroprotection previously described in the ischemic model. This result is of interest because currently, clinical treatment for brain edema is limited. Importantly, the beneficial effects observed with XG-102 in models of both stroke types open the possibility to rapidly treat stroke patients before identifying the stroke subtype by imaging. This will save time which is precious for stroke outcome.

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Introduction: According to guidelines, patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) should undergo revascularization if myocardial ischemia is present. While coronary angiography (CXA) allows the morphological assessment of CAD, the fractional flow reserve (FFR) has proved to be a complementary invasive test to assess the functional significance of CAD, i.e. to detect ischemia. Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) has turned out to be a robust non-invasive technique to assess myocardial ischemia. The objective: is to compare the cost-effectiveness ratio - defined as the costs per patient correctly diagnosed - of two algorithms used to diagnose hemodynamically significant CAD in relation to the pretest likelihood of CAD: 1) aCMRto assess ischemia before referring positive patients to CXA (CMR + CXA), 2) a CXA in all patients combined with a FFR test in patients with angiographically positive stenoses (CXA + FFR). Methods: The costs, evaluated from the health care system perspective in the Swiss, German, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) contexts, included public prices of the different tests considered as outpatient procedures, complications' costs and costs induced by diagnosis errors (false negative). The effectiveness criterion wasthe ability to accurately identify apatient with significantCAD.Test performancesused in the model were based on the clinical literature. Using a mathematical model, we compared the cost-effectiveness ratio for both algorithms for hypothetical patient cohorts with different pretest likelihood of CAD. Results: The cost-effectiveness ratio decreased hyperbolically with increasing pretest likelihood of CAD for both strategies. CMR + CXA and CXA + FFR were equally costeffective at a pretest likelihood of CAD of 62% in Switzerland, 67% in Germany, 83% in the UK and 84% in the US with costs of CHF 5'794, Euros 1'472, £ 2'685 and $ 2'126 per patient correctly diagnosed. Below these thresholds, CMR + CXA showed lower costs per patient correctly diagnosed than CXA + FFR. Implications for the health care system/professionals/patients/society These results facilitate decision making for the clinical use of new generations of imaging procedures to detect ischemia. They show to what extent the cost-effectiveness to diagnose CAD depends on the prevalence of the disease.

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Aggregating brain cell cultures at an advanced maturational stage (20-21 days in vitro) were subjected for 1-3 h to anaerobic (hypoxic) and/or stationary (ischemic) conditions. After restoration of the normal culture conditions, cell loss was estimated by measuring the release of lactate dehydrogenase as well as the irreversible decrease of cell type-specific enzyme activities, total protein and DNA content. Ischemia for 2 h induced significant neuronal cell death. Hypoxia combined with ischemia affected both neuronal and glial cells to different degrees (GABAergic neurons>cholinergic neurons>astrocytes). Hypoxic and ischemic conditions greatly stimulated the uptake of 2-deoxy-D-glucose, indicating increased glucose consumption. Furthermore, glucose restriction (5.5 mM instead of 25 mM) dramatically increased the susceptibility of neuronal and glial cells to hypoxic and ischemic conditions. Glucose media concentrations below 2 mM caused selective neuronal cell death in otherwise normal culture conditions. GABAergic neurons showed a particularly high sensitivity to glucose restriction, hypoxia, and ischemia. The pattern of ischemia-induced changes in vitro showed many similarities to in vivo findings, suggesting that aggregating brain cell cultures provide a useful in vitro model to study pathogenic mechanisms related to brain ischemia.

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Brain inflammatory response is triggered by the activation of microglial cells and astrocytes in response to various types of CNS injury, including neurotoxic insults. Its outcome is determined by cellular interactions, inflammatory mediators, as well as trophic and/or cytotoxic signals, and depends on many additional factors such as the intensity and duration of the insult, the extent of both the primary neuronal damage and glial reactivity and the developmental stage of the brain. Depending on particular circumstances, the brain inflammatory response can promote neuroprotection, regeneration or neurodegeneration. Glial reactivity, regarded as the central phenomenon of brain inflammation, has also been used as an early marker of neurotoxicity. To study the mechanisms underlying the glial reactivity, serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures were used as an in vitro model to test the effects of conventional neurotoxicants such as organophosphate pesticides, heavy metals, excitotoxins and mycotoxins. This approach was found to be relevant and justified by the complex cell-cell interactions involved in the brain inflammatory response, the variability of the glial reactions and the multitude of mediators involved. All these variables need to be considered for the elucidation of the specific cellular and molecular reactions and their consequences caused by a given chemical insult.

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The ability of tumor cells to leave a primary tumor, to disseminate through the body, and to ultimately seed new secondary tumors is universally agreed to be the basis for metastasis formation. An accurate description of the cellular and molecular mechanisms that underlie this multistep process would greatly facilitate the rational development of therapies that effectively allow metastatic disease to be controlled and treated. A number of disparate and sometimes conflicting hypotheses and models have been suggested to explain various aspects of the process, and no single concept explains the mechanism of metastasis in its entirety or encompasses all observations and experimental findings. The exciting progress made in metastasis research in recent years has refined existing ideas, as well as giving rise to new ones. In this review we survey some of the main theories that currently exist in the field, and show that significant convergence is emerging, allowing a synthesis of several models to give a more comprehensive overview of the process of metastasis. As a result we postulate a stromal progression model of metastasis. In this model, progressive modification of the tumor microenvironment is equally as important as genetic and epigenetic changes in tumor cells during primary tumor progression. Mutual regulatory interactions between stroma and tumor cells modify the stemness of the cells that drive tumor growth, in a manner that involves epithelial-mesenchymal and mesenchymal-epithelial-like transitions. Similar interactions need to be recapitulated at secondary sites for metastases to grow. Early disseminating tumor cells can progress at the secondary site in parallel to the primary tumor, both in terms of genetic changes, as well as progressive development of a metastatic stroma. Although this model brings together many ideas in the field, there remain nevertheless a number of major open questions, underscoring the need for further research to fully understand metastasis, and thereby identify new and effective ways of treating metastatic disease.

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Background: Evidence for a better performance of different highly atherogenic versus traditional lipid parameters for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction is conflicting. We investigated the association of the ratios of sma11 dense low density lipoprotein(LDL)/apoplipoprotein A, aolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol and CHD events in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).Methods: Case control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: for each cART-treated patient with a first coronary event between April 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 (case) we selected four control patients (1) that were without coronary events until the date of the event of the index case, (2) had a plasma sample within ±30 days of the sample date of the respective case, (3) received cART and (4) were then matched for age, gender and smoking status. Lipoproteins were measured by ultracentrifugation. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the independent effects of different lipid ratios and the occurrence of coronary events.Results: In total, 98 cases (19 fatal myocardial infarctions [MI] and 79 non-fatal coronary events [53 definite MIs, 15 possible MIs and 11 coronary angioplasties or bypassesJ) were matched with 392 controls. Cases were more often injecting drug users, less likely to be virologically suppressed and more often on abacavir-containing regimens. In separa te multivariable models of total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, abdominal obesity, diabetes and family history of CHD, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B were each statistically significantly associated with CHD events (for 1 mg/dl increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11 and 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31, respectively), but the ratiosof small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95-1.67), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and HDL-cholesterol! total cholesterol (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.98-1.00) were not. Following adjustment for HIV related and cART variables these associations were weakened in each model: apolipoprotein B (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.30), sd-LDL (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.87-1.58), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and total cholesterolJHDL- cholesterol (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00).Conclusions: In patients receiving cART, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B showed the strongest associations with CHD events in models controlling for traditional CHD risk factors including total cholesterol and triglycerides. Adding small dense LDLlapoplipoprotein A-l, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol ratios did not further improve models of lipid parameters and associations of increased risk for CHD events.

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AIMS: While successful termination by pacing of organized atrial tachycardias has been observed in patients, single site rapid pacing has not yet led to conclusive results for the termination of atrial fibrillation (AF). The purpose of this study was to evaluate a novel atrial septal pacing algorithm for the termination of AF in a biophysical model of the human atria. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sustained AF was generated in a model based on human magnetic resonance images and membrane kinetics. Rapid pacing was applied from the septal area following a dual-stage scheme: (i) rapid pacing for 10-30 s at pacing intervals 62-70% of AF cycle length (AFCL), (ii) slow pacing for 1.5 s at 180% AFCL, initiated by a single stimulus at 130% AFCL. Atrial fibrillation termination success rates were computed. A mean success rate for AF termination of 10.2% was obtained for rapid septal pacing only. The addition of the slow pacing phase increased this rate to 20.2%. At an optimal pacing cycle length (64% AFCL) up to 29% of AF termination was observed. CONCLUSION: The proposed septal pacing algorithm could suppress AF reentries in a more robust way than classical single site rapid pacing. Experimental studies are now needed to determine whether similar termination mechanisms and rates can be observed in animals or humans, and in which types of AF this pacing strategy might be most effective.

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DNA vaccination is a promising approach for inducing both humoral and cellular immune responses. The mode of plasmid DNA delivery is critical to make progress in DNA vaccination. Using human papillomavirus type 16 E7 as a model antigen, this study evaluated the effect of peptide-polymer hybrid including PEI600-Tat conjugate as a novel gene delivery system on the potency of antigen-specific immunity in mice model. At ratio of 10:50 PEI-Tat/E7DNA (w/w), both humoral and cellular immune responses were significantly enhanced as compared with E7DNA construct and induced Th1 response. Therefore, this new delivery system could have promising applications in gene therapy.

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Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran's eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps.

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Abnormal development can lead to deficits in adult brain function, a trajectory likely underlying adolescent-onset psychiatric conditions such as schizophrenia. Developmental manipulations yielding adult deficits in rodents provide an opportunity to explore mechanisms involved in a delayed emergence of anomalies driven by developmental alterations. Here we assessed whether oxidative stress during presymptomatic stages causes adult anomalies in rats with a neonatal ventral hippocampal lesion, a developmental rodent model useful for schizophrenia research. Juvenile and adolescent treatment with the antioxidant N-acetyl cysteine prevented the reduction of prefrontal parvalbumin interneuron activity observed in this model, as well as electrophysiological and behavioral deficits relevant to schizophrenia. Adolescent treatment with the glutathione peroxidase mimic ebselen also reversed behavioral deficits in this animal model. These findings suggest that presymptomatic oxidative stress yields abnormal adult brain function in a developmentally compromised brain, and highlight redox modulation as a potential target for early intervention.

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Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

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Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.