Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level

1. Statistical modelling is often used to relate sparse biological survey data to remotely derived environmental predictors, thereby providing a basis for predictively mapping biodiversity across an entire region of interest. The most popular strategy for such modelling has been to model distributions of individual species one at a time. Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level may, however, confer significant benefits for applications involving very large numbers of species, particularly if many of these species are recorded infrequently. 2. Community-level modelling combines data from multiple species and produces information on spatial pattern in the distribution of biodiversity at a collective community level instead of, or in addition to, the level of individual species. Spatial outputs from community-level modelling include predictive mapping of community types (groups of locations with similar species composition), species groups (groups of species with similar distributions), axes or gradients of compositional variation, levels of compositional dissimilarity between pairs of locations, and various macro-ecological properties (e.g. species richness). 3. Three broad modelling strategies can be used to generate these outputs: (i) 'assemble first, predict later', in which biological survey data are first classified, ordinated or aggregated to produce community-level entities or attributes that are then modelled in relation to environmental predictors; (ii) 'predict first, assemble later', in which individual species are modelled one at a time as a function of environmental variables, to produce a stack of species distribution maps that is then subjected to classification, ordination or aggregation; and (iii) 'assemble and predict together', in which all species are modelled simultaneously, within a single integrated modelling process. These strategies each have particular strengths and weaknesses, depending on the intended purpose of modelling and the type, quality and quantity of data involved. 4. Synthesis and applications. The potential benefits of modelling large multispecies data sets using community-level, as opposed to species-level, approaches include faster processing, increased power to detect shared patterns of environmental response across rarely recorded species, and enhanced capacity to synthesize complex data into a form more readily interpretable by scientists and decision-makers. Community-level modelling therefore deserves to be considered more often, and more widely, as a potential alternative or supplement to modelling individual species.

Human Primary Auditory Cortex Follows the Shape of Heschl's Gyrus.

The primary auditory cortex (PAC) is central to human auditory abilities, yet its location in the brain remains unclear. We measured the two largest tonotopic subfields of PAC (hA1 and hR) using high-resolution functional MRI at 7 T relative to the underlying anatomy of Heschl's gyrus (HG) in 10 individual human subjects. The data reveals a clear anatomical-functional relationship that, for the first time, indicates the location of PAC across the range of common morphological variants of HG (single gyri, partial duplications, and complete duplications). In 20/20 individual hemispheres, two primary mirror-symmetric tonotopic maps were clearly observed with gradients perpendicular to HG. PAC spanned both divisions of HG in cases of partial and complete duplications (11/20 hemispheres), not only the anterior division as commonly assumed. Specifically, the central union of the two primary maps (the hA1-R border) was consistently centered on the full Heschl's structure: on the gyral crown of single HGs and within the sulcal divide of duplicated HGs. The anatomical-functional variants of PAC appear to be part of a continuum, rather than distinct subtypes. These findings significantly revise HG as a marker for human PAC and suggest that tonotopic maps may have shaped HG during human evolution. Tonotopic mappings were based on only 16 min of fMRI data acquisition, so these methods can be used as an initial mapping step in future experiments designed to probe the function of specific auditory fields.

Carbon dioxide in scree slope deposits: A pathway from atmosphere to pedogenic carbonate

A continuum of carbon, from atmospheric CO2 to secondary calcium carbonate, has been studied in a soil associ- ated with scree slope deposits in the Jura Mountains of Switzerland. This approach is based on former studies conducted in other environments. This C continuum includes atmospheric CO2, soil organic matter (SOM), soil CO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in soil solutions, and secondary pedogenic carbonate. Soil parameters (pCO2, temperature, pH, Cmin and Corg contents), soil solution chemistry, and isotopic compositions of soil CO2, DIC, carbonate and soil organic matter (δ13CCO2, δ13CDIC, δ13Ccar and δ13CSOM values) have been monitored at different depths (from 20 to 140 cm) over one year. Results demonstrated that the carbon source in secondary carbonate (mainly needle fiber calcite) is related to the dissolved inorganic carbon, which is strongly dependent on soil respiration. The heterotrophic respiration, rather than the limestone parent material, seems to control the pedogenic carbon cycle. The correlation of δ13Corg values with Rock-Eval HI and OI indices demonstrates that, in a soil associated to scree slope deposits, the main process responsible for 13C-enrichment in SOM is related to bac- terial oxidative decarboxylation. Finally, precipitation of secondary calcium carbonate is enhanced by changes in soil pCO2 associated to the convective movement of air masses induced by temperature gradients (heat pump effect) in the highly porous scree slope deposits. The exportation of soil C-leachates from systems such as the one studied in this paper could partially explain the "gap in the European carbon budget" reported by recent studies.

Inconsistency between different measures of sexual selection.

Measuring the intensity of sexual selection is of fundamental importance to the study of sexual dimorphism, population dynamics, and speciation. Several indices, pools of individuals, and fitness proxies are used in the literature, yet their relative performances are strongly debated. Using 12 independent common lizard populations, we manipulated the adult sex ratio, a potentially important determinant of the intensity of sexual selection at a particular time and place. We investigated differences in the intensity of sexual selection, as estimated using three standard indices of sexual selection-the standardized selection gradient (β'), the opportunity of selection (I), and the Bateman gradient (βss)--calculated for different pools of individuals and different fitness proxies. We show that results based on estimates of I were the opposite of those derived from the other indices, whereas results based on estimates of β' were consistent with predictions derived from knowledge about the species' mating system. In addition, our estimates of the strength and direction of sexual selection depended on both the fitness proxy used and the pool of individuals included in the analysis. These observations demonstrate inconsistencies in distinct measures of sexual selection and underscore the need for caution when comparing studies and species.

Fast screening and confirmation of doping agents by UHPLC-QTOF-MS/MS

Introduction: The general strategy to perform anti-doping analysis starts with a screening followed by a confirmatory step when a sample is suspected to be positive. The screening step should be fast, generic and able to highlight any sample that may contain a prohibited substance by avoiding false negative and reducing false positive results. The confirmatory step is a dedicated procedure comprising a selective sample preparation and detection mode. Aim: The purpose of the study is to develop rapid screening and selective confirmatory strategies to detect and identify 103 doping agents in urine. Methods: For the screening, urine samples were simply diluted by a factor 2 with ultra-pure water and directly injected ("dilute and shoot") in the ultrahigh- pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC). The UHPLC separation was performed in two gradients (ESI positive and negative) from 5/95 to 95/5% of MeCN/Water containing 0.1% formic acid. The gradient analysis time is 9 min including 3 min reequilibration. Analytes detection was performed in full scan mode on a quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) mass spectrometer by acquiring the exact mass of the protonated (ESI positive) or deprotonated (ESI negative) molecular ion. For the confirmatory analysis, urine samples were extracted on SPE 96-well plate with mixed-mode cation (MCX) for basic and neutral compounds or anion exchange (MAX) sorbents for acidic molecules. The analytes were eluted in 3 min (including 1.5 min reequilibration) with a S1-25 Ann Toxicol Anal. 2009; 21(S1) Abstracts gradient from 5/95 to 95/5% of MeCN/Water containing 0.1% formic acid. Analytes confirmation was performed in MS and MS/MS mode on a QTOF mass spectrometer. Results: In the screening and confirmatory analysis, basic and neutral analytes were analysed in the positive ESI mode, whereas acidic compounds were analysed in the negative mode. The analyte identification was based on retention time (tR) and exact mass measurement. "Dilute and shoot" was used as a generic sample treatment in the screening procedure, but matrix effect (e.g., ion suppression) cannot be avoided. However, the sensitivity was sufficient for all analytes to reach the minimal required performance limit (MRPL) required by the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA). To avoid time-consuming confirmatory analysis of false positive samples, a pre-confirmatory step was added. It consists of the sample re-injection, the acquisition of MS/MS spectra and the comparison to reference material. For the confirmatory analysis, urine samples were extracted by SPE allowing a pre-concentration of the analyte. A fast chromatographic separation was developed as a single analyte has to be confirmed. A dedicated QTOF-MS and MS/MS acquisition was performed to acquire within the same run a parallel scanning of two functions. Low collision energy was applied in the first channel to obtain the protonated molecular ion (QTOF-MS), while dedicated collision energy was set in the second channel to obtain fragmented ions (QTOF-MS/MS). Enough identification points were obtained to compare the spectra with reference material and negative urine sample. Finally, the entire process was validated and matrix effects quantified. Conclusion: Thanks to the coupling of UHPLC with the QTOF mass spectrometer, high tR repeatability, sensitivity, mass accuracy and mass resolution over a broad mass range were obtained. The method was sensitive, robust and reliable enough to detect and identify doping agents in urine. Keywords: screening, confirmatory analysis, UHPLC, QTOF, doping agents

Intravoxel incoherent motion perfusion imaging in acute stroke: initial clinical experience.

INTRODUCTION: Intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) imaging is an MRI perfusion technique that uses a diffusion-weighted sequence with multiple b values and a bi-compartmental signal model to measure the so-called pseudo-diffusion of blood caused by its passage through the microvascular network. The goal of the current study was to assess the feasibility of IVIM perfusion fraction imaging in patients with acute stroke. METHODS: Images were collected in 17 patients with acute stroke. Exclusion criteria were onset of symptoms to imaging >5 days, hemorrhagic transformation, infratentorial lesions, small lesions <0.5 cm in minimal diameter and hemodynamic instability. IVIM imaging was performed at 3 T, using a standard spin-echo Stejskal-Tanner pulsed gradients diffusion-weighted sequence, using 16 b values from 0 to 900 s/mm(2). Image quality was assessed by two radiologists, and quantitative analysis was performed in regions of interest placed in the stroke area, defined by thresholding the apparent diffusion coefficient maps, as well as in the contralateral region. RESULTS: IVIM perfusion fraction maps showed an area of decreased perfusion fraction f in the region of decreased apparent diffusion coefficient. Quantitative analysis showed a statistically significant decrease in both IVIM perfusion fraction f (0.026 ± 0.019 vs. 0.056 ± 0.025, p = 2.2 · 10(-6)) and diffusion coefficient D compared with the contralateral side (3.9 ± 0.79 · 10(-4) vs. 7.5 ± 0.86 · 10(-4) mm(2)/s, p = 1.3 · 10(-20)). CONCLUSION: IVIM perfusion fraction imaging is feasible in acute stroke. IVIM perfusion fraction is significantly reduced in the visible infarct. Further studies should evaluate the potential for IVIM to predict clinical outcome and treatment response.

Thermal niches are more conserved at cold than warm limits in arctic-alpine plant species

Aim Understanding the stability of realised niches is crucial for predicting the responses of species to climate change. One approach is to evaluate the niche differences of populations of the same species that occupy regions that are geographically disconnected. Here, we assess niche conservatism along thermal gradients for 26 plant species with a disjunct distribution between the Alps and the Arctic. Location European Alps and Norwegian Finnmark. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset of 26 arctic-alpine plant occurrences in two regions. We assessed niche conservatism through a multi-species comparison and analysed species rankings at cold and warm thermal limits along two distinct gradients corresponding to (1) air temperatures at 2 meters above ground level and (2) elevation distances to the treeline (TLD) for the two regions. We assessed whether observed relationships were close to those predicted under thermal limit conservatism. Results We found a weak similarity in species ranking at the warm thermal limits. The range of warm thermal limits for the 26 species was much larger in the Alps than in Finnmark. We found a stronger similarity in species ranking and correspondence at the cold thermal limit along the gradients of 2-m temperature and TLD. Yet, along the 2-m temperature gradient, the cold thermal limits of species in the Alps were lower on average than those in Finnmark. Main conclusion We found low conservatism of the warm thermal limits but a stronger conservatism of the cold thermal limits. We suggest that biotic interactions at the warm thermal limit likely modulate species responses more strongly than at the cold limit. The differing biotic context between the two regions is likely responsible for the observed differences in realised niches.

A DGT Technique for Plutonium Bioavailability Measurements.

The toxicity of heavy metals in natural waters is strongly dependent on the local chemical environment. Assessing the bioavailability of radionuclides predicts the toxic effects to aquatic biota. The technique of diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) is largely exploited for bioavailability measurements of trace metals in waters. However, it has not been applied for plutonium speciation measurements yet. This study investigates the use of DGT technique for plutonium bioavailability measurements in chemically different environments. We used a diffusion cell to determine the diffusion coefficients (D) of plutonium in polyacrylamide (PAM) gel and found D in the range of 2.06-2.29 × 10(-6) cm(2) s(-1). It ranged between 1.10 and 2.03 × 10(-6) cm(2) s(-1) in the presence of fulvic acid and in natural waters with low DOM. In the presence of 20 ppm of humic acid of an organic-rich soil, plutonium diffusion was hindered by a factor of 5, with a diffusion coefficient of 0.50 × 10(-6) cm(2) s(-1). We also tested commercially available DGT devices with Chelex resin for plutonium bioavailability measurements in laboratory conditions and the diffusion coefficients agreed with those from the diffusion cell experiments. These findings show that the DGT methodology can be used to investigate the bioaccumulation of the labile plutonium fraction in aquatic biota.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Wnt secretion and gradient formation.

Concentration gradients formed by the lipid-modified morphogens of the Wnt family are known for their pivotal roles during embryogenesis and adult tissue homeostasis. Wnt morphogens are also implicated in a variety of human diseases, especially cancer. Therefore, the signaling cascades triggered by Wnts have received considerable attention during recent decades. However, how Wnts are secreted and how concentration gradients are formed remains poorly understood. The use of model organisms such as Drosophila melanogaster has provided important advances in this area. For instance, we have previously shown that the lipid raft-associated reggie/flotillin proteins influence Wnt secretion and spreading in Drosophila. Our work supports the notion that producing cells secrete Wnt molecules in at least two pools: a poorly diffusible one and a reggie/flotillin-dependent highly diffusible pool which allows morphogen spreading over long distances away from its source of production. Here we revise the current views of Wnt secretion and spreading, and propose two models for the role of the reggie/flotillin proteins in these processes: (i) reggies/flotillins regulate the basolateral endocytosis of the poorly diffusible, membrane-bound Wnt pool, which is then sorted and secreted to apical compartments for long-range diffusion, and (ii) lipid rafts organized by reggies/flotillins serve as "dating points" where extracellular Wnt transiently interacts with lipoprotein receptors to allow its capture and further spreading via lipoprotein particles. We further discuss these processes in the context of human breast cancer. A better understanding of these phenomena may be relevant for identification of novel drug targets and therapeutic strategies.

Health services utilization associated with cognitive impairment and dementia in older patients undergoing post-acute rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between levels of cognitive impairment and health services utilization in older patients undergoing post-acute rehabilitation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Post-acute rehabilitation facility. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N = 1764) aged 70 years and older admitted over 3 years. MEASUREMENTS: Sociodemographic, medical, and functional data were collected upon admission. Based on discharge diagnoses, patients were classified as cognitively intact, cognitively impaired with no dementia (CIND), and demented. RESULTS: Dementia and CIND were diagnosed in 425 (24.1%) and 301 (17.1%) patients, respectively. Gradients from cognitively intact to cognitively impaired to demented patients were observed in median length of stay (19, 22, and 25 days, P < .001), and institutionalization rates at discharge (4.2%, 7.6%, and 28.8%, P < .001). Among patients discharged home, similar gradients were observed in utilization of home care (68.2%, 79.7%, and 83.3%, P < .001) and day care (3.1%, 7.1%, and 14.3%, P < .001). After adjustment, compared with cognitively intact patients, only those with dementia still had longer stays (+2.7 days) and increased odds of institutionalization (adjOR 6.1, 95% CI 4.0-9.3, P < .001). Among patients discharged home, use of home and day care remained higher in those with dementia (adjOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7, P = .005, and adjOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7, P = .005, respectively), while CIND patients had higher odds of using home care (adjOR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.4, P = .028). CONCLUSION: Among patients undergoing post-acute rehabilitation, those with dementia had increased use of both institutional and community care, whereas those with CIND had increased use of home care services only. Future studies should investigate specific strategies susceptible to reduce the related burden on health care systems.

Environment-dependent microevolution in a Mediterranean pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton).

BACKGROUND: A central question for understanding the evolutionary responses of plant species to rapidly changing environments is the assessment of their potential for short-term (in one or a few generations) genetic change. In our study, we consider the case of Pinus pinaster Aiton (maritime pine), a widespread Mediterranean tree, and (i) test, under different experimental conditions (growth chamber and semi-natural), whether higher recruitment in the wild from the most successful mothers is due to better performance of their offspring; and (ii) evaluate genetic change in quantitative traits across generations at two different life stages (mature trees and seedlings) that are known to be under strong selection pressure in forest trees. RESULTS: Genetic control was high for most traits (h2 = 0.137-0.876) under the milder conditions of the growth chamber, but only for ontogenetic change (0.276), total height (0.415) and survival (0.719) under the more stressful semi-natural conditions. Significant phenotypic selection gradients were found in mature trees for traits related to seed quality (germination rate and number of empty seeds). Moreover, female relative reproductive success was significantly correlated with offspring performance for specific leaf area (SLA) in the growth chamber experiment, and stem mass fraction (SMF) in the experiment under semi-natural conditions, two adaptive traits related to abiotic stress-response in pines. Selection gradients based on genetic covariance of seedling traits and responses to selection at this stage involved traits related to biomass allocation (SMF) and growth (as decomposed by a Gompertz model) or delayed ontogenetic change, depending also on the testing environment. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the evidence of microevolutionary change in adaptive traits in maritime pine, directional or disruptive changes are difficult to predict due to variable selection at different life stages and environments. At mature-tree stages, higher female effective reproductive success can be explained by differences in their production of offspring (due to seed quality) and, to a lesser extent, by seemingly better adapted seedlings. Selection gradients and responses to selection for seedlings also differed across experimental conditions. The distinct processes involved at the two life stages (mature trees or seedlings) together with environment-specific responses advice caution when predicting likely evolutionary responses to environmental change in Mediterranean forest trees.

Extreme Precipitation Modelling Using Geostatistics and Machine Learning Algorithms

The paper presents an approach for mapping of precipitation data. The main goal is to perform spatial predictions and simulations of precipitation fields using geostatistical methods (ordinary kriging, kriging with external drift) as well as machine learning algorithms (neural networks). More practically, the objective is to reproduce simultaneously both the spatial patterns and the extreme values. This objective is best reached by models integrating geostatistics and machine learning algorithms. To demonstrate how such models work, two case studies have been considered: first, a 2-day accumulation of heavy precipitation and second, a 6-day accumulation of extreme orographic precipitation. The first example is used to compare the performance of two optimization algorithms (conjugate gradients and Levenberg-Marquardt) of a neural network for the reproduction of extreme values. Hybrid models, which combine geostatistical and machine learning algorithms, are also treated in this context. The second dataset is used to analyze the contribution of radar Doppler imagery when used as external drift or as input in the models (kriging with external drift and neural networks). Model assessment is carried out by comparing independent validation errors as well as analyzing data patterns.

Host specialist clownfishes are environmental niche generalists.

Why generalist and specialist species coexist in nature is a question that has interested evolutionary biologists for a long time. While the coexistence of specialists and generalists exploiting resources on a single ecological dimension has been theoretically and empirically explored, biological systems with multiple resource dimensions (e.g. trophic, ecological) are less well understood. Yet, such systems may provide an alternative to the classical theory of stable evolutionary coexistence of generalist and specialist species on a single resource dimension. We explore such systems and the potential trade-offs between different resource dimensions in clownfishes. All species of this iconic clade are obligate mutualists with sea anemones yet show interspecific variation in anemone host specificity. Moreover, clownfishes developed variable environmental specialization across their distribution. In this study, we test for the existence of a relationship between host-specificity (number of anemones associated with a clownfish species) and environmental-specificity (expressed as the size of the ecological niche breadth across climatic gradients). We find a negative correlation between host range and environmental specificities in temperature, salinity and pH, probably indicating a trade-off between both types of specialization forcing species to specialize only in a single direction. Trade-offs in a multi-dimensional resource space could be a novel way of explaining the coexistence of generalist and specialists.

Exogenous selection shapes germination behaviour and seedling traits of populations at different altitudes in a Senecio hybrid zone.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Senecio hybrid zone on Mt Etna, Sicily, is characterized by steep altitudinal clines in quantitative traits and genetic variation. Such clines are thought to be maintained by a combination of 'endogenous' selection arising from genetic incompatibilities and environment-dependent 'exogenous' selection leading to local adaptation. Here, the hypothesis was tested that local adaptation to the altitudinal temperature gradient contributes to maintaining divergence between the parental species, S. chrysanthemifolius and S. aethnensis. METHODS: Intra- and inter-population crosses were performed between five populations from across the hybrid zone and the germination and early seedling growth of the progeny were assessed. KEY RESULTS: Seedlings from higher-altitude populations germinated better under low temperatures (9-13 °C) than those from lower altitude populations. Seedlings from higher-altitude populations had lower survival rates under warm conditions (25/15 °C) than those from lower altitude populations, but also attained greater biomass. There was no altitudinal variation in growth or survival under cold conditions (15/5 °C). Population-level plasticity increased with altitude. Germination, growth and survival of natural hybrids and experimentally generated F(1)s generally exceeded the worse-performing parent. CONCLUSIONS: Limited evidence was found for endogenous selection against hybrids but relatively clear evidence was found for divergence in seed and seedling traits, which is probably adaptive. The combination of low-temperature germination and faster growth in warm conditions might enable high-altitude S. aethnensis to maximize its growth during a shorter growing season, while the slower growth of S. chrysanthemifolius may be an adaptation to drought stress at low altitudes. This study indicates that temperature gradients are likely to be an important environmental factor generating and maintaining adaptive divergence across the Senecio hybrid zone on Mt Etna.