Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

Computer-aided volume measurement of posttraumatic orbits reconstructed with AO titanium mesh plates: accuracy and reliability

PURPOSE: To prospectively evaluate the accuracy and reliability of "freehand" posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction with AO (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Osteosynthese) titanium mesh plates by using computer-aided volumetric measurement of the bony orbits. METHODS: Bony orbital volume was measured in 12 patients from coronal CT scan slices using OsiriX Medical Image software. After defining the volumetric limits of the orbit, the segmentation of the bony orbital region of interest of each single slice was performed. At the end of the segmentation process, all regions of interest were grouped and the volume was computed. The same procedure was performed on both orbits, and thereafter the volume of the contralateral uninjured orbit was used as a control for comparison. RESULTS: In all patients, the volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 1.85 cm3 (7%). CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study has demonstrated that posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction using "freehand" bending and placement of AO titanium mesh plates results in a high success rate in re-establishing preoperative bony volume, which closely approximates that of the contralateral uninjured orbit.

Accuracy and Precision of Head Motion Information in Multi-Channel Free Induction Decay Navigators for Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Free induction decay (FID) navigators were found to qualitatively detect rigid-body head movements, yet it is unknown to what extent they can provide quantitative motion estimates. Here, we acquired FID navigators at different sampling rates and simultaneously measured head movements using a highly accurate optical motion tracking system. This strategy allowed us to estimate the accuracy and precision of FID navigators for quantification of rigid-body head movements. Five subjects were scanned with a 32-channel head coil array on a clinical 3T MR scanner during several resting and guided head movement periods. For each subject we trained a linear regression model based on FID navigator and optical motion tracking signals. FID-based motion model accuracy and precision was evaluated using cross-validation. FID-based prediction of rigid-body head motion was found to be with a mean translational and rotational error of 0.14±0.21 mm and 0.08±0.13(°) , respectively. Robust model training with sub-millimeter and sub-degree accuracy could be achieved using 100 data points with motion magnitudes of ±2 mm and ±1(°) for translation and rotation. The obtained linear models appeared to be subject-specific as inter-subject application of a "universal" FID-based motion model resulted in poor prediction accuracy. The results show that substantial rigid-body motion information is encoded in FID navigator signal time courses. Although, the applied method currently requires the simultaneous acquisition of FID signals and optical tracking data, the findings suggest that multi-channel FID navigators have a potential to complement existing tracking technologies for accurate rigid-body motion detection and correction in MRI.

Eye-tracking of nodule detection in lung CT volumetric data.

PURPOSE: Signal detection on 3D medical images depends on many factors, such as foveal and peripheral vision, the type of signal, and background complexity, and the speed at which the frames are displayed. In this paper, the authors focus on the speed with which radiologists and naïve observers search through medical images. Prior to the study, the authors asked the radiologists to estimate the speed at which they scrolled through CT sets. They gave a subjective estimate of 5 frames per second (fps). The aim of this paper is to measure and analyze the speed with which humans scroll through image stacks, showing a method to visually display the behavior of observers as the search is made as well as measuring the accuracy of the decisions. This information will be useful in the development of model observers, mathematical algorithms that can be used to evaluate diagnostic imaging systems. METHODS: The authors performed a series of 3D 4-alternative forced-choice lung nodule detection tasks on volumetric stacks of chest CT images iteratively reconstructed in lung algorithm. The strategy used by three radiologists and three naïve observers was assessed using an eye-tracker in order to establish where their gaze was fixed during the experiment and to verify that when a decision was made, a correct answer was not due only to chance. In a first set of experiments, the observers were restricted to read the images at three fixed speeds of image scrolling and were allowed to see each alternative once. In the second set of experiments, the subjects were allowed to scroll through the image stacks at will with no time or gaze limits. In both static-speed and free-scrolling conditions, the four image stacks were displayed simultaneously. All trials were shown at two different image contrasts. RESULTS: The authors were able to determine a histogram of scrolling speeds in frames per second. The scrolling speed of the naïve observers and the radiologists at the moment the signal was detected was measured at 25-30 fps. For the task chosen, the performance of the observers was not affected by the contrast or experience of the observer. However, the naïve observers exhibited a different pattern of scrolling than the radiologists, which included a tendency toward higher number of direction changes and number of slices viewed. CONCLUSIONS: The authors have determined a distribution of speeds for volumetric detection tasks. The speed at detection was higher than that subjectively estimated by the radiologists before the experiment. The speed information that was measured will be useful in the development of 3D model observers, especially anthropomorphic model observers which try to mimic human behavior.