Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries.

Diffusion-weighted MRI in metastatic gastrointestinal tumors (GIST): A pilot study on the assessment of treatment response in comparison with 18F-FDG PET/CT

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical potential of diffusion-weighted MR imaging with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) mapping for the assessment of gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) response to targeted therapy in comparison with 18F-FDG PET/CT. Methods and materials: Five patients (3W/2M, aged 56 ± 13 y) with metastatic GIST underwent both a 18F-FDG PET/CT (Discovery LS, GE Healthcare) and a MRI (VIBE T1 Gd, DWI [b = 50,300,600] and ADC mapping) before and after change in therapy. Exams were first analyzed blindly, then PET/CT images were coregistered to T1 Gd MR images for lesion detection. SUVmax and ADC were measured for the six largest lesions on MRI. The relationship between SUVmax and ADC was analyzed using Spearman's correlation. Results: Altogether, 24 lesions (15 hepatic and 9 non-hepatic) were analyzed on both modalities. Three PET/CT lesions (12.5%) were initially not considered on ADC and 4 lesions on the second PET/CT were excluded because of hepatic vascular activity spillover. SUVmax decreased from 7.2 ± 7.7 g/mL to 5.9 ± 5.9 g/mL (P = 0.53) and ADC increased from 1.2x10-3 mm2/s ± 0.4 to 1.4x10-3 mm2/s ± 0.4 (P = 0.07). There was a significant association between SUVmax decrease and ADC increase (rho= -0.64, P = 0.004). Conclusion: Changes in ADC from diffusion-weighted MRI reflect response of 18F-FDG-avid GIST to therapy. The exact diagnostic value of DWI needs to be investigated further, as well as the effect of lesion size and time under therapy before imaging. Furthermore, the proven association between SUVmax and ADC may be useful for the assessment of treatment response in 18F-FDG non-avid GIST.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Is spinal stenosis assessment dependent on slice orientation? A magnetic resonance imaging study.

INTRODUCTION: Lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) treatment is based primarily on the clinical criteria providing that imaging confirms radiological stenosis. The radiological measurement more commonly used is the dural sac cross-sectional area (DSCA). It has been recently shown that grading stenosis based on the morphology of the dural sac as seen on axial T2 MRI images, better reflects severity of stenosis than DSCA and is of prognostic value. This radiological prospective study investigates the variability of surface measurements and morphological grading of stenosis for varying degrees of angulation of the T2 axial images relative to the disc space as observed in clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Lumbar spine TSE T2 three-dimensional (3D) MRI sequences were obtained from 32 consecutive patients presenting with either suspected spinal stenosis or low back pain. Axial reconstructions using the OsiriX software at 0°, 10°, 20° and 30° relative to the disc space orientation were obtained for a total of 97 levels. For each level, DSCA was digitally measured and stenosis was graded according to the 4-point (A-D) morphological grading by two observers. RESULTS: A good interobserver agreement was found in grade evaluation of stenosis (k = 0.71). DSCA varied significantly as the slice orientation increased from 0° to +10°, +20° and +30° at each level examined (P < 0.0001) (-15 to +32% at 10°, -24 to +143% at 20° and -29 to +231% at 30° of slice orientation). Stenosis definition based on the surface measurements changed in 39 out of the 97 levels studied, whereas the morphology grade was modified only in two levels (P < 0.01). DISCUSSION: The need to obtain continuous slices using the classical 2D MRI acquisition technique entails often at least a 10° slice inclination relative to one of the studied discs. Even at this low angulation, we found a significantly statistical difference between surface changes and morphological grading change. In clinical practice, given the above findings, it might therefore not be necessary to align the axial cuts to each individual disc level which could be more time-consuming than obtaining a single series of axial cuts perpendicular to the middle of the lumbar spine or to the most stenotic level. In conclusion, morphological grading seems to offer an alternative means of assessing severity of spinal stenosis that is little affected by image acquisition technique.

Diffusion-weighted MRI in metastatic gastrointestinal tumours (GIST): a pilot study on the assessment of treatment response in comparison with 18 F-FDG PET/CT

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical potential of diffusion-weighted MR imaging with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) mapping for the assessment of gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) response to targeted therapy in comparison with 18F-FDG PET/CT Methods and Materials: Five patients (3 W/2M, aged 56±13 y) with metastatic GIST underwent both a 18F-FDG PET/CT (Discovery LS, GE Healthcare) and a MRI (VIBE T1 Gd, DWI [b = 50,300,600] and ADC mapping) before and after change in therapy. Exams were first analysed blindly and then PET/CT images were coregistered to T1 Gd MR images for lesion detection. SUVmax and ADC were measured for the six largest lesions on MRI. The relationship between SUVmax and ADC was analysed using Spearman's correlation. Results: Altogether, 24 lesions (15 hepatic and 9 non-hepatic) were analysed on both modalities. Three PET/CT lesions (12.5%) were initially not considered on ADC and 4 lesions on the second PET/CT were excluded because of hepatic vascular activity spillover. SUVmax decreased from 7.2±7.7 g/mL to 5.9±5.9 g/mL (P = 0.53) and ADC increased from 1.2x10-3 mm2/s ± 0.4 to 1.4x10-3 mm2/s ± 0.4 (P = 0.07). There was a significant association between SUVmax decrease and ADC increase (rho= -0.64, P = 0.004). Conclusion: Changes in ADC from diffusion-weighted MRI reflect response of 18F-FDG-avid GIST to therapy. The exact diagnostic value of DWI needs to be investigated further, as well as the effect of lesion size and time under therapy before imaging. Furthermore, the proven association between SUVmax and ADC may be useful for the assessment of treatment response in 18F-FDG non-avid GIST.

In vitro assessment of the pulmonary toxicity and gastric availability of lead-rich particles from a lead recycling plant

Epidemiological studies in urban areas have linked increasing respiratory and cardiovascular pathologies with atmospheric particulate matter (PM) from anthropic activities. However, the biological fate of metal-rich PM industrial emissions in urban areas of developed countries remains understudied. Lead toxicity and bioaccessibility assessments were therefore performed on emissions from a lead recycling plant, using complementary chemical acellular tests and toxicological assays, as a function of PM size (PM(10-2.5), PM(2.5-1) and PM(1)) and origin (furnace, refining and channeled emissions). Process PM displayed differences in metal content, granulometry, and percentage of inhalable fraction as a function of their origin. Lead gastric bioaccessibility was relatively low (maximum 25%) versus previous studies; although, because of high total lead concentrations, significant metal quantities were solubilized in simulated gastrointestinal fluids. Regardless of origin, the finest PM(1) particles induced the most significant pro-inflammatory response in human bronchial epithelial cells. Moreover, this biological response correlated with pro-oxidant potential assay results, suggesting some biological predictive value for acellular tests. Pulmonary effects from lead-rich PM could be driven by thiol complexation with either lead ions or directly on the particulate surface. Finally, health concern of PM was discussed on the basis of pro-inflammatory effects, accellular test results, and PM size distribution.

Value of sTREM-1, procalcitonin and CRP as laboratory parameters for postmortem diagnosis of sepsis.

OBJECTIVES: Triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1) was reported to be up-regulated in various inflammatory diseases as well as in bacterial sepsis. Increased cell-surface TREM-1 expression was also shown to result in marked plasma elevation of the soluble form of this molecule (sTREM-1) in patients with bacterial infections. In this study, we investigated sTREM-1, procalcitonin and C-reactive protein in postmortem serum in a series of sepsis-related fatalities and control individuals who underwent medico-legal investigations. sTREM-1 was also measured in pericardial fluid and urine. METHODS: Two study groups were prospectively formed, a sepsis-related fatalities group and a control group. The sepsis-related fatalities group consisted of sixteen forensic autopsy cases. Eight of these had a documented clinical diagnosis of sepsis in vivo. The control group consisted of sixteen forensic autopsy cases with various causes of death. RESULTS: Postmortem serum sTREM-1 concentrations were higher in the sepsis group with a mean value of 173.6 pg/ml in septic cases and 79.2 pg/ml in control individuals. The cutoff value of 90 pg/ml provided the best sensitivity and specificity. Pericardial fluid sTREM-1 values were higher in the septic group, with a mean value of 296.7 pg/ml in septic cases and 100.9 pg/ml in control individuals. The cutoff value of 135 pg/ml provided the best sensitivity and specificity. Mean urine sTREM-1 concentration was 102.9 pg/ml in septic cases and 89.3 pg/ml in control individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Postmortem serum sTREM-1, individually considered, did not provide better sensitivity and specificity than procalcitonin in detecting sepsis. However, simultaneous assessment of procalcitonin and sTREM-1 in postmortem serum can be of help in clarifying contradictory postmortem findings. sTREM-1 determination in pericardial fluid can be an alternative to postmortem serum in those situations in which biochemical analyses are required and blood collected during autopsy proves insufficient.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Geneva cocktail for cytochrome p450 and P-glycoprotein activity assessment using dried blood spots.

The suitability of the capillary dried blood spot (DBS) sampling method was assessed for simultaneous phenotyping of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes and P-glycoprotein (P-gp) using a cocktail approach. Ten volunteers received an oral cocktail capsule containing low doses of the probes bupropion (CYP2B6), flurbiprofen (CYP2C9), omeprazole (CYP2C19), dextromethorphan (CYP2D6), midazolam (CYP3A), and fexofenadine (P-gp) with coffee/Coke (CYP1A2) on four occasions. They received the cocktail alone (session 1), and with the CYP inhibitors fluvoxamine and voriconazole (session 2) and quinidine (session 3). In session 4, subjects received the cocktail after a 7-day pretreatment with the inducer rifampicin. The concentrations of probes/metabolites were determined in DBS and plasma using a single liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method. The pharmacokinetic profiles of the drugs were comparable in DBS and plasma. Important modulation of CYP and P-gp activities was observed in the presence of inhibitors and the inducer. Minimally invasive one- and three-point (at 2, 3, and 6 h) DBS-sampling methods were found to reliably reflect CYP and P-gp activities at each session.

EGASP: the human ENCODE Genome Annotation Assessment Project.

BACKGROUND: We present the results of EGASP, a community experiment to assess the state-of-the-art in genome annotation within the ENCODE regions, which span 1% of the human genome sequence. The experiment had two major goals: the assessment of the accuracy of computational methods to predict protein coding genes; and the overall assessment of the completeness of the current human genome annotations as represented in the ENCODE regions. For the computational prediction assessment, eighteen groups contributed gene predictions. We evaluated these submissions against each other based on a 'reference set' of annotations generated as part of the GENCODE project. These annotations were not available to the prediction groups prior to the submission deadline, so that their predictions were blind and an external advisory committee could perform a fair assessment. RESULTS: The best methods had at least one gene transcript correctly predicted for close to 70% of the annotated genes. Nevertheless, the multiple transcript accuracy, taking into account alternative splicing, reached only approximately 40% to 50% accuracy. At the coding nucleotide level, the best programs reached an accuracy of 90% in both sensitivity and specificity. Programs relying on mRNA and protein sequences were the most accurate in reproducing the manually curated annotations. Experimental validation shows that only a very small percentage (3.2%) of the selected 221 computationally predicted exons outside of the existing annotation could be verified. CONCLUSION: This is the first such experiment in human DNA, and we have followed the standards established in a similar experiment, GASP1, in Drosophila melanogaster. We believe the results presented here contribute to the value of ongoing large-scale annotation projects and should guide further experimental methods when being scaled up to the entire human genome sequence.

Enhancing clinically-relevant shoulder function assessment using only essential movements.

Kinematic functional evaluation with body-worn sensors provides discriminative and responsive scores after shoulder surgery, but the optimal movements' combination has not yet been scientifically investigated. The aim of this study was the development of a simplified shoulder function kinematic score including only essential movements. The P Score, a seven-movement kinematic score developed on 31 healthy participants and 35 patients before surgery and at 3, 6 and 12 months after shoulder surgery, served as a reference.Principal component analysis and multiple regression were used to create simplified scoring models. The candidate models were compared to the reference score. ROC curve for shoulder pathology detection and correlations with clinical questionnaires were calculated.The B-B Score (hand to the Back and hand upwards as to change a Bulb) showed no difference to the P Score in time*score interaction (P > .05) and its relation with the reference score was highly linear (R(2) > .97). Absolute value of correlations with clinical questionnaires ranged from 0.51 to 0.77. Sensitivity was 97% and specificity 94%.The B-B and reference scores are equivalent for the measurement of group responses. The validated simplified scoring model presents practical advantages that facilitate the objective evaluation of shoulder function in clinical practice.

Refining abacavir hypersensitivity diagnoses using a structured clinical assessment and genetic testing in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the value of a structured clinical assessment and genetic testing for refining the diagnosis of abacavir hypersensitivity reactions (ABC-HSRs) in a routine clinical setting. METHODS: We performed a diagnostic reassessment using a structured patient chart review in individuals who had stopped ABC because of suspected HSR. Two HIV physicians blinded to the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing results independently classified these individuals on a scale between 3 (ABC-HSR highly likely) and -3 (ABC-HSR highly unlikely). Scoring was based on symptoms, onset of symptoms and comedication use. Patients were classified as clinically likely (mean score > or =2), uncertain (mean score > or = -1 and < or = 1) and unlikely (mean score < or = -2). HLA typing was performed using sequence-based methods. RESULTS: From 131 reassessed individuals, 27 (21%) were classified as likely, 43 (33%) as unlikely and 61 (47%) as uncertain ABC-HSR. Of the 131 individuals with suspected ABC-HSR, 31% were HLA-B*5701-positive compared with 1% of 140 ABC-tolerant controls (P < 0.001). HLA-B*5701 carriage rate was higher in individuals with likely ABC-HSR compared with those with uncertain or unlikely ABC-HSR (78%, 30% and 5%, respectively, P < 0.001). Only six (7%) HLA-B*5701-negative individuals were classified as likely HSR after reassessment. CONCLUSIONS: HLA-B*5701 carriage is highly predictive of clinically diagnosed ABC-HSR. The high proportion of HLA-B*5701-negative individuals with minor symptoms among individuals with suspected HSR indicates overdiagnosis of ABC-HSR in the era preceding genetic screening. A structured clinical assessment and genetic testing could reduce the rate of inappropriate ABC discontinuation and identify individuals at high risk for ABC-HSR.

Reliability of methods used for the risk assessment of mixture of micropollutants in aquatic enviromments : from theoretical concepts to field observations

Ces dernières années, de nombreuses recherches ont mis en évidence les effets toxiques des micropolluants organiques pour les espèces de nos lacs et rivières. Cependant, la plupart de ces études se sont focalisées sur la toxicité des substances individuelles, alors que les organismes sont exposés tous les jours à des milliers de substances en mélange. Or les effets de ces cocktails ne sont pas négligeables. Cette thèse de doctorat s'est ainsi intéressée aux modèles permettant de prédire le risque environnemental de ces cocktails pour le milieu aquatique. Le principal objectif a été d'évaluer le risque écologique des mélanges de substances chimiques mesurées dans le Léman, mais aussi d'apporter un regard critique sur les méthodologies utilisées afin de proposer certaines adaptations pour une meilleure estimation du risque. Dans la première partie de ce travail, le risque des mélanges de pesticides et médicaments pour le Rhône et pour le Léman a été établi en utilisant des approches envisagées notamment dans la législation européenne. Il s'agit d'approches de « screening », c'est-à-dire permettant une évaluation générale du risque des mélanges. Une telle approche permet de mettre en évidence les substances les plus problématiques, c'est-à-dire contribuant le plus à la toxicité du mélange. Dans notre cas, il s'agit essentiellement de 4 pesticides. L'étude met également en évidence que toutes les substances, même en trace infime, contribuent à l'effet du mélange. Cette constatation a des implications en terme de gestion de l'environnement. En effet, ceci implique qu'il faut réduire toutes les sources de polluants, et pas seulement les plus problématiques. Mais l'approche proposée présente également un biais important au niveau conceptuel, ce qui rend son utilisation discutable, en dehors d'un screening, et nécessiterait une adaptation au niveau des facteurs de sécurité employés. Dans une deuxième partie, l'étude s'est portée sur l'utilisation des modèles de mélanges dans le calcul de risque environnemental. En effet, les modèles de mélanges ont été développés et validés espèce par espèce, et non pour une évaluation sur l'écosystème en entier. Leur utilisation devrait donc passer par un calcul par espèce, ce qui est rarement fait dû au manque de données écotoxicologiques à disposition. Le but a été donc de comparer, avec des valeurs générées aléatoirement, le calcul de risque effectué selon une méthode rigoureuse, espèce par espèce, avec celui effectué classiquement où les modèles sont appliqués sur l'ensemble de la communauté sans tenir compte des variations inter-espèces. Les résultats sont dans la majorité des cas similaires, ce qui valide l'approche utilisée traditionnellement. En revanche, ce travail a permis de déterminer certains cas où l'application classique peut conduire à une sous- ou sur-estimation du risque. Enfin, une dernière partie de cette thèse s'est intéressée à l'influence que les cocktails de micropolluants ont pu avoir sur les communautés in situ. Pour ce faire, une approche en deux temps a été adoptée. Tout d'abord la toxicité de quatorze herbicides détectés dans le Léman a été déterminée. Sur la période étudiée, de 2004 à 2009, cette toxicité due aux herbicides a diminué, passant de 4% d'espèces affectées à moins de 1%. Ensuite, la question était de savoir si cette diminution de toxicité avait un impact sur le développement de certaines espèces au sein de la communauté des algues. Pour ce faire, l'utilisation statistique a permis d'isoler d'autres facteurs pouvant avoir une influence sur la flore, comme la température de l'eau ou la présence de phosphates, et ainsi de constater quelles espèces se sont révélées avoir été influencées, positivement ou négativement, par la diminution de la toxicité dans le lac au fil du temps. Fait intéressant, une partie d'entre-elles avait déjà montré des comportements similaires dans des études en mésocosmes. En conclusion, ce travail montre qu'il existe des modèles robustes pour prédire le risque des mélanges de micropolluants sur les espèces aquatiques, et qu'ils peuvent être utilisés pour expliquer le rôle des substances dans le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, ces modèles ont bien sûr des limites et des hypothèses sous-jacentes qu'il est important de considérer lors de leur application. - Depuis plusieurs années, les risques que posent les micropolluants organiques pour le milieu aquatique préoccupent grandement les scientifiques ainsi que notre société. En effet, de nombreuses recherches ont mis en évidence les effets toxiques que peuvent avoir ces substances chimiques sur les espèces de nos lacs et rivières, quand elles se retrouvent exposées à des concentrations aiguës ou chroniques. Cependant, la plupart de ces études se sont focalisées sur la toxicité des substances individuelles, c'est à dire considérées séparément. Actuellement, il en est de même dans les procédures de régulation européennes, concernant la partie évaluation du risque pour l'environnement d'une substance. Or, les organismes sont exposés tous les jours à des milliers de substances en mélange, et les effets de ces "cocktails" ne sont pas négligeables. L'évaluation du risque écologique que pose ces mélanges de substances doit donc être abordé par de la manière la plus appropriée et la plus fiable possible. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés aux méthodes actuellement envisagées à être intégrées dans les législations européennes pour l'évaluation du risque des mélanges pour le milieu aquatique. Ces méthodes sont basées sur le modèle d'addition des concentrations, avec l'utilisation des valeurs de concentrations des substances estimées sans effet dans le milieu (PNEC), ou à partir des valeurs des concentrations d'effet (CE50) sur certaines espèces d'un niveau trophique avec la prise en compte de facteurs de sécurité. Nous avons appliqué ces méthodes à deux cas spécifiques, le lac Léman et le Rhône situés en Suisse, et discuté les résultats de ces applications. Ces premières étapes d'évaluation ont montré que le risque des mélanges pour ces cas d'étude atteint rapidement une valeur au dessus d'un seuil critique. Cette valeur atteinte est généralement due à deux ou trois substances principales. Les procédures proposées permettent donc d'identifier les substances les plus problématiques pour lesquelles des mesures de gestion, telles que la réduction de leur entrée dans le milieu aquatique, devraient être envisagées. Cependant, nous avons également constaté que le niveau de risque associé à ces mélanges de substances n'est pas négligeable, même sans tenir compte de ces substances principales. En effet, l'accumulation des substances, même en traces infimes, atteint un seuil critique, ce qui devient plus difficile en terme de gestion du risque. En outre, nous avons souligné un manque de fiabilité dans ces procédures, qui peuvent conduire à des résultats contradictoires en terme de risque. Ceci est lié à l'incompatibilité des facteurs de sécurité utilisés dans les différentes méthodes. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, nous avons étudié la fiabilité de méthodes plus avancées dans la prédiction de l'effet des mélanges pour les communautés évoluant dans le système aquatique. Ces méthodes reposent sur le modèle d'addition des concentrations (CA) ou d'addition des réponses (RA) appliqués sur les courbes de distribution de la sensibilité des espèces (SSD) aux substances. En effet, les modèles de mélanges ont été développés et validés pour être appliqués espèce par espèce, et non pas sur plusieurs espèces agrégées simultanément dans les courbes SSD. Nous avons ainsi proposé une procédure plus rigoureuse, pour l'évaluation du risque d'un mélange, qui serait d'appliquer d'abord les modèles CA ou RA à chaque espèce séparément, et, dans une deuxième étape, combiner les résultats afin d'établir une courbe SSD du mélange. Malheureusement, cette méthode n'est pas applicable dans la plupart des cas, car elle nécessite trop de données généralement indisponibles. Par conséquent, nous avons comparé, avec des valeurs générées aléatoirement, le calcul de risque effectué selon cette méthode plus rigoureuse, avec celle effectuée traditionnellement, afin de caractériser la robustesse de cette approche qui consiste à appliquer les modèles de mélange sur les courbes SSD. Nos résultats ont montré que l'utilisation de CA directement sur les SSDs peut conduire à une sous-estimation de la concentration du mélange affectant 5 % ou 50% des espèces, en particulier lorsque les substances présentent un grand écart- type dans leur distribution de la sensibilité des espèces. L'application du modèle RA peut quant à lui conduire à une sur- ou sous-estimations, principalement en fonction de la pente des courbes dose- réponse de chaque espèce composant les SSDs. La sous-estimation avec RA devient potentiellement importante lorsque le rapport entre la EC50 et la EC10 de la courbe dose-réponse des espèces est plus petit que 100. Toutefois, la plupart des substances, selon des cas réels, présentent des données d' écotoxicité qui font que le risque du mélange calculé par la méthode des modèles appliqués directement sur les SSDs reste cohérent et surestimerait plutôt légèrement le risque. Ces résultats valident ainsi l'approche utilisée traditionnellement. Néanmoins, il faut garder à l'esprit cette source d'erreur lorsqu'on procède à une évaluation du risque d'un mélange avec cette méthode traditionnelle, en particulier quand les SSD présentent une distribution des données en dehors des limites déterminées dans cette étude. Enfin, dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, nous avons confronté des prédictions de l'effet de mélange avec des changements biologiques observés dans l'environnement. Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé des données venant d'un suivi à long terme d'un grand lac européen, le lac Léman, ce qui offrait la possibilité d'évaluer dans quelle mesure la prédiction de la toxicité des mélanges d'herbicide expliquait les changements dans la composition de la communauté phytoplanctonique. Ceci à côté d'autres paramètres classiques de limnologie tels que les nutriments. Pour atteindre cet objectif, nous avons déterminé la toxicité des mélanges sur plusieurs années de 14 herbicides régulièrement détectés dans le lac, en utilisant les modèles CA et RA avec les courbes de distribution de la sensibilité des espèces. Un gradient temporel de toxicité décroissant a pu être constaté de 2004 à 2009. Une analyse de redondance et de redondance partielle, a montré que ce gradient explique une partie significative de la variation de la composition de la communauté phytoplanctonique, même après avoir enlevé l'effet de toutes les autres co-variables. De plus, certaines espèces révélées pour avoir été influencées, positivement ou négativement, par la diminution de la toxicité dans le lac au fil du temps, ont montré des comportements similaires dans des études en mésocosmes. On peut en conclure que la toxicité du mélange herbicide est l'un des paramètres clés pour expliquer les changements de phytoplancton dans le lac Léman. En conclusion, il existe diverses méthodes pour prédire le risque des mélanges de micropolluants sur les espèces aquatiques et celui-ci peut jouer un rôle dans le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, ces modèles ont bien sûr des limites et des hypothèses sous-jacentes qu'il est important de considérer lors de leur application, avant d'utiliser leurs résultats pour la gestion des risques environnementaux. - For several years now, the scientists as well as the society is concerned by the aquatic risk organic micropollutants may pose. Indeed, several researches have shown the toxic effects these substances may induce on organisms living in our lakes or rivers, especially when they are exposed to acute or chronic concentrations. However, most of the studies focused on the toxicity of single compounds, i.e. considered individually. The same also goes in the current European regulations concerning the risk assessment procedures for the environment of these substances. But aquatic organisms are typically exposed every day simultaneously to thousands of organic compounds. The toxic effects resulting of these "cocktails" cannot be neglected. The ecological risk assessment of mixtures of such compounds has therefore to be addressed by scientists in the most reliable and appropriate way. In the first part of this thesis, the procedures currently envisioned for the aquatic mixture risk assessment in European legislations are described. These methodologies are based on the mixture model of concentration addition and the use of the predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) or effect concentrations (EC50) with assessment factors. These principal approaches were applied to two specific case studies, Lake Geneva and the River Rhône in Switzerland, including a discussion of the outcomes of such applications. These first level assessments showed that the mixture risks for these studied cases exceeded rapidly the critical value. This exceeding is generally due to two or three main substances. The proposed procedures allow therefore the identification of the most problematic substances for which management measures, such as a reduction of the entrance to the aquatic environment, should be envisioned. However, it was also showed that the risk levels associated with mixtures of compounds are not negligible, even without considering these main substances. Indeed, it is the sum of the substances that is problematic, which is more challenging in term of risk management. Moreover, a lack of reliability in the procedures was highlighted, which can lead to contradictory results in terms of risk. This result is linked to the inconsistency in the assessment factors applied in the different methods. In the second part of the thesis, the reliability of the more advanced procedures to predict the mixture effect to communities in the aquatic system were investigated. These established methodologies combine the model of concentration addition (CA) or response addition (RA) with species sensitivity distribution curves (SSD). Indeed, the mixture effect predictions were shown to be consistent only when the mixture models are applied on a single species, and not on several species simultaneously aggregated to SSDs. Hence, A more stringent procedure for mixture risk assessment is proposed, that would be to apply first the CA or RA models to each species separately and, in a second step, to combine the results to build an SSD for a mixture. Unfortunately, this methodology is not applicable in most cases, because it requires large data sets usually not available. Therefore, the differences between the two methodologies were studied with datasets created artificially to characterize the robustness of the traditional approach applying models on species sensitivity distribution. The results showed that the use of CA on SSD directly might lead to underestimations of the mixture concentration affecting 5% or 50% of species, especially when substances present a large standard deviation of the distribution from the sensitivity of the species. The application of RA can lead to over- or underestimates, depending mainly on the slope of the dose-response curves of the individual species. The potential underestimation with RA becomes important when the ratio between the EC50 and the EC10 for the dose-response curve of the species composing the SSD are smaller than 100. However, considering common real cases of ecotoxicity data for substances, the mixture risk calculated by the methodology applying mixture models directly on SSDs remains consistent and would rather slightly overestimate the risk. These results can be used as a theoretical validation of the currently applied methodology. Nevertheless, when assessing the risk of mixtures, one has to keep in mind this source of error with this classical methodology, especially when SSDs present a distribution of the data outside the range determined in this study Finally, in the last part of this thesis, we confronted the mixture effect predictions with biological changes observed in the environment. In this study, long-term monitoring of a European great lake, Lake Geneva, provides the opportunity to assess to what extent the predicted toxicity of herbicide mixtures explains the changes in the composition of the phytoplankton community next to other classical limnology parameters such as nutrients. To reach this goal, the gradient of the mixture toxicity of 14 herbicides regularly detected in the lake was calculated, using concentration addition and response addition models. A decreasing temporal gradient of toxicity was observed from 2004 to 2009. Redundancy analysis and partial redundancy analysis showed that this gradient explains a significant portion of the variation in phytoplankton community composition, even when having removed the effect of all other co-variables. Moreover, some species that were revealed to be influenced positively or negatively, by the decrease of toxicity in the lake over time, showed similar behaviors in mesocosms studies. It could be concluded that the herbicide mixture toxicity is one of the key parameters to explain phytoplankton changes in Lake Geneva. To conclude, different methods exist to predict the risk of mixture in the ecosystems. But their reliability varies depending on the underlying hypotheses. One should therefore carefully consider these hypotheses, as well as the limits of the approaches, before using the results for environmental risk management

Impact of a smoking ban in hospitality venues on second hand smoke exposure: a comparison of exposure assessment methods

BACKGROUND: In May 2010, Switzerland introduced a heterogeneous smoking ban in the hospitality sector. While the law leaves room for exceptions in some cantons, it is comprehensive in others. This longitudinal study uses different measurement methods to examine airborne nicotine levels in hospitality venues and the level of personal exposure of non-smoking hospitality workers before and after implementation of the law. METHODS: Personal exposure to second hand smoke (SHS) was measured by three different methods. We compared a passive sampler called MoNIC (Monitor of NICotine) badge, to salivary cotinine and nicotine concentration as well as questionnaire data. Badges allowed the number of passively smoked cigarettes to be estimated. They were placed at the venues as well as distributed to the participants for personal measurements. To assess personal exposure at work, a time-weighted average of the workplace badge measurements was calculated. RESULTS: Prior to the ban, smoke-exposed hospitality venues yielded a mean badge value of 4.48 (95%-CI: 3.7 to 5.25; n = 214) cigarette equivalents/day. At follow-up, measurements in venues that had implemented a smoking ban significantly declined to an average of 0.31 (0.17 to 0.45; n = 37) (p = 0.001). Personal badge measurements also significantly decreased from an average of 2.18 (1.31-3.05 n = 53) to 0.25 (0.13-0.36; n = 41) (p = 0.001). Spearman rank correlations between badge exposure measures and salivary measures were small to moderate (0.3 at maximum). CONCLUSIONS: Nicotine levels significantly decreased in all types of hospitality venues after implementation of the smoking ban. In-depth analyses demonstrated that a time-weighted average of the workplace badge measurements represented typical personal SHS exposure at work more reliably than personal exposure measures such as salivary cotinine and nicotine.

Assessment of driving capability through the use of clinical and psychomotor tests in relation to blood cannabinoids levels following oral administration of 20 mg dronabinol or of a cannabis decoction made with 20 or 60 mg Delta9-THC.

Delta(9)-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is frequently found in the blood of drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis or involved in traffic crashes. The present study used a double-blind crossover design to compare the effects of medium (16.5 mg THC) and high doses (45.7 mg THC) of hemp milk decoctions or of a medium dose of dronabinol (20 mg synthetic THC, Marinol on several skills required for safe driving. Forensic interpretation of cannabinoids blood concentrations were attempted using the models proposed by Daldrup (cannabis influencing factor or CIF) and Huestis and coworkers. First, the time concentration-profiles of THC, 11-hydroxy-Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (11-OH-THC) (active metabolite of THC), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) in whole blood were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-negative ion chemical ionization. Compared to smoking studies, relatively low concentrations were measured in blood. The highest mean THC concentration (8.4 ng/mL) was achieved 1 h after ingestion of the strongest decoction. Mean maximum 11-OH-THC level (12.3 ng/mL) slightly exceeded that of THC. THCCOOH reached its highest mean concentration (66.2 ng/mL) 2.5-5.5 h after intake. Individual blood levels showed considerable intersubject variability. The willingness to drive was influenced by the importance of the requested task. Under significant cannabinoids influence, the participants refused to drive when they were asked whether they would agree to accomplish several unimportant tasks, (e.g., driving a friend to a party). Most of the participants reported a significant feeling of intoxication and did not appreciate the effects, notably those felt after drinking the strongest decoction. Road sign and tracking testing revealed obvious and statistically significant differences between placebo and treatments. A marked impairment was detected after ingestion of the strongest decoction. A CIF value, which relies on the molar ratio of main active to inactive cannabinoids, greater than 10 was found to correlate with a strong feeling of intoxication. It also matched with a significant decrease in the willingness to drive, and it matched also with a significant impairment in tracking performances. The mathematic model II proposed by Huestis et al. (1992) provided at best a rough estimate of the time of oral administration with 27% of actual values being out of range of the 95% confidence interval. The sum of THC and 11-OH-THC blood concentrations provided a better estimate of impairment than THC alone. This controlled clinical study points out the negative influence on fitness to drive after medium or high dose oral THC or dronabinol.