Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Recent human-induced trophic change in the large and deep perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland) compared to historical geochemical variations

This study investigates the sedimentological and geochemical changes that occurred during the last 2200 years in the meromictic Lake Lucerne (Switzerland), one of the largest freshwater lakes of Central Europe. The stable isotope composition (delta C-13 and delta O-18 values) of bulk carbonates is compared to changes in grain-size distribution (clay and silt fraction), natural trace element input (titanium and thorium concentrations), and organic material abundance (C-org, nitrogen and phosphorus) and composition (C/N ratios and hydrogen and oxygen indexes). A drop in carbonate accumulation and in the delta O-18 values of sediments between ca. AD 500 and 700 followed a large and consistent rise in chemical weathering, marked by increases in the silicate-clay fraction and in crustal element concentrations. During the following millennium, there was a long-term decreasing trend in the lithogenic trace element input and in the phosphorus loading, suggesting decreasing terrigeneous input from runoff water. The major sedimentological change over the studied period occurred after ca. AD 1800 with a significant increase in the erosion-driven silt-fraction and in the sedimentation rate. During the last century, human-induced increase in nutrient input to the lake highly enhanced the accumulation of organic matter in sediment. Changes in nutrients and oxygen conditions in the hypolimnion of Lake Lucerne during the eutrophication period (i.e., the last 40 years) highly modified the geochemical fluxes compared to the relatively stable oligotrophic conditions that prevailed during the previous 2000 years. Before the 19th century, climate driven meromixis had a limited impact on the organic matter flux to the sediments, but the accumulation of carbonate considerably decreased during periods of lower mechanical erosion rates and high chemical weathering rates. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Welfare regimes and change in the employment structure: Britain, Denmark and Germany since 1990

Welfare states are often reduced to their role as providers of social protection and redistribution. In 1990, Esping-Andersen argued that they also affect employment creation and the class structure. We analyse the stratification outcomes for three welfare regimes - Britain, Germany and Denmark - over the 1990s and 2000s. Based on individual-level surveys, we observe a disproportionate increase among professionals and managers, and a decline among production workers and clerks. The result is clear-cut occupational upgrading in Denmark and Germany. In Britain, high and low-end service jobs expanded, resulting in a polarized version of upgrading. Growth in low-end service jobs - and thus polarization - is no precondition for full employment. Both Britain and Denmark halved their low-educated unemployment rate between 1995 and 2008. Yet low-end service jobs expanded only in Britain, not in Denmark. The cause is the evolution of labour supply: rising educational attainment means that fewer low-educated workers look for low-skilled jobs.

Family interactions in IVF families: change over the transition to parenthood

Objective: This article presents a study of the change over time in the family interactions of couples who conceived through in-vitro fertilisation (IVF). Background: Observational methods are rarely used to study family interactions in families who used assisted reproductive techniques, but these methods are crucial for taking account of the communication that occurs in interactions with infants. Methods: Thirty-one couples expecting their first child were seen during the fifth month of pregnancy and when the child was nine months old. Family interactions were recorded in pre- and postnatal versions of the Lausanne Trilogue Play situation. Measures of marital satisfaction and parent-to-foetus/baby attachment or 'bonding' were also used to assess family relational dynamics. Results: Results showed that family alliance, marital satisfaction and parental attachment scores in the IVF sample were all similar to or higher than those in the reference sample during pregnancy. However, at nine months postnatally, the family alliance scores were lower. While marital satisfaction decreased over the period and parent-baby attachment increased, the family alliance scores were unstable, as no association was observed between the pre- and postnatal scores. In addition, neither prenatal marital satisfaction nor parent-foetus attachment predicted the postnatal family alliance. Conclusion: The change in the family alliance over the transition to parenthood appears to be specific to our IVF sample. Given that postnatal family functioning could not be predicted by prenatal family functioning, our observational data underline the importance of offering postnatal support to these families.