Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in europe.

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

Western Préalpes Médianes Romandes: Timing and structure. A review.

Between the original position and their present day location as klippen, the Prealpes Medianes underwent a complex history of paleotectonics and alpine tectonics. Due to the opening of the Piemont ocean the Brianconnais sedimentation realm of the Prealpes Medianes evolved as a rim basin of the northern passive margin during Jurassic to Eocene times. Different paleotectonic features (normal faults, synsedimentary growth structures, inversion structures) developed and were active above a basal detachment in evaporitic layers. The tectonic movements were a consequence of thermal events in the crust. Isolated from the Iberic continent at the end of the Late Cretaceous, the Brianconnais exotic terrain was incorporated into the accretionary prism of the closing Piemont ocean and the incipient alpine orogeny during the Lutetian-Bartonian. The Prealpes Medianes were detached from their homeland during the Bartonian-Priabonian and were transported onto the foreland. The tectonic style is one of a thin-skinned foreland fold and thrust belt. Fault associated fold development above a main decollement, together with internal deformation, represent the Prealpes Medianes main structural features. The very low-grade metamorphic conditions have their origin in the heat flux induced by tectonic burial by overriding nappes in the accretionary prism. After having been transported on top of the developing Helvetic nappes the Prealpes were emplaced in their present day position in front of the Alpine mountain belt during Oligocene times. Post-emplacement and out of sequence thrusting, possibly younger than Oligocene, is observed and can be related to thrusting in the sedimentary substratum and the basement.

Influence of climate on the presence of colour polymorphism in two montane reptile species.

The coloration of ectotherms plays an important role in thermoregulation processes. Dark individuals should heat up faster and be able to reach a higher body temperature than light individuals and should therefore have benefits in cool areas. In central Europe, montane local populations of adder (Vipera berus) and asp viper (Vipera aspis) exhibit a varying proportion of melanistic individuals. We tested whether the presence of melanistic V. aspis and V. berus could be explained by climatic conditions. We measured the climatic niche position and breadth of monomorphic (including strictly patterned individuals) and polymorphic local populations, calculated their niche overlap and tested for niche equivalency and similarity. In accordance with expectations, niche overlap between polymorphic local populations of both species is high, and even higher than that of polymorphic versus monomorphic montane local populations of V. aspis, suggesting a predominant role of melanism in determining the niche of ectothermic vertebrates. However, unexpectedly, the niche of polymorphic local populations of both species is narrower than that of monomorphic ones, indicating that colour polymorphism does not always enable the exploitation of a greater variability of resources, at least at the intraspecific level. Overall, our results suggest that melanism might be present only when the thermoregulatory benefit is higher than the cost of predation.

Bimodal magmatism as a consequence of the post-collisional readjustment of the thickened Variscan continental lithosphere (Aiguilles Rouges - Mont Blanc Massifs, Western Alps)

High Precision U-Pb zircon and monazite dating in the Aiguilles Rouges-Mont Blanc area allowed discrimination of three short-lived bimodal magmatic pulses: the early 332 Ma Mg-K Pormenaz monzonite and associated 331 Ma peraluminous Montees Pelissier monzogranite; the 307 Ma cordierite-bearing peraluminous Vallorcine and Fully intrusions; and the 303 Fe-K Mont Blanc syenogranite. All intruded syntectonically along major-scale transcurrent faults at a time when the substratum was experiencing tectonic exhumation, active erosion recorded in detrital basins and isothermal decompression melting dated at 327-320 Ma. Mantle activity and magma mixing are evidenced in all plutons by coeval mafic enclaves, stocks and synplutonic dykes. Both crustal and mantle sources evolve through time, pointing to an increasingly warm continental crust and juvenile asthenospheric mantle sources. This overall tectono-magmatic evolution is interpreted in a scenario of post-collisional restoration to normal size of a thickened continental lithosphere. The latter re-equilibrates through delamination and/or erosion of its mantle root and tectonic exhumation/erosion in an overall extensional regime. Extension is related to either gravitational collapse or back-are extension of a distant subduction zone.

Les symbioses agro-industrielles en Afrique de l'Ouest : évaluation du potentiel d'une nouvelle stratégie pour un développement durable

RésuméCette thèse traite de l'utilisation des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement et étudie le potentiel de cette stratégie pour stimuler un développement régional durable dans les zones rurales d'Afrique de l'Ouest. En particulier, lorsqu'une Symbiose Industrielle est instaurée entre une usine et sa population alentour, des outils d'évaluation sont nécessaires pour garantir que le projet permette d'atteindre un réel développement durable. Les outils existants, développés dans les pays industrialisés, ne sont cependant pas complètement adaptés pour l'évaluation de projets dans les pays en développement. En effet, les outils sont porteurs d'hypothèses implicites propres au contexte socio-économique dans lequel ils ont été conçus.L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer un cadre méthodologique pour l'évaluation de la durabilité de projets de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement.Pour ce faire, je m'appuie sur une étude de cas de la mise en place d'une Symbiose Industrielle au nord du Nigéria, à laquelle j'ai participé en tant qu'observatrice dès 2007. AshakaCem, une usine productrice de ciment du groupe Lafarge, doit faire face à de nombreuses tensions avec la population rurale alentour. L'entreprise a donc décidé d'adopter une nouvelle méthode inspirée des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle. Le projet consiste à remplacer jusqu'à 10% du carburant fossile utilisé pour la cuisson de la matière crue (calcaire et additifs) par de la biomasse produite par les paysans locaux. Pour ne pas compromettre la fragile sécurité alimentaire régionale, des techniques de lutte contre l'érosion et de fertilisation naturelle des sols sont enseignées aux paysans, qui peuvent ainsi utiliser la culture de biomasse pour améliorer leurs cultures vivrières. A travers cette Symbiose Industrielle, l'entreprise poursuit des objectifs sociaux (poser les bases nécessaires à un développement régional), mais également environnementaux (réduire ses émissions de CO2 globales) et économiques (réduire ses coûts énergétiques). Elle s'ancre ainsi dans une perspective de développement durable qui est conditionnelle à la réalisation du projet.A travers l'observation de cette Symbiose et par la connaissance des outils existants je constate qu'une évaluation de la durabilité de projets dans les pays en développement nécessite l'utilisation de critères d'évaluation propres à chaque projet. En effet, dans ce contexte, l'emploi de critères génériques apporte une évaluation trop éloignée des besoins et de la réalité locale. C'est pourquoi, en m'inspirant des outils internationalement reconnus comme l'Analyse du Cycle de Vie ou la Global Reporting Initiative, je définis dans cette thèse un cadre méthodologique qui peut, lui, être identique pour tous les projets. Cette stratégie suit six étapes, qui se réalisent de manière itérative pour permettre une auto¬amélioration de la méthodologie d'évaluation et du projet lui-même. Au cours de ces étapes, les besoins et objectifs en termes sociaux, économiques et environnementaux des différents acteurs sont déterminés, puis regroupés, hiérarchisés et formulés sous forme de critères à évaluer. Des indicateurs quantitatifs ou qualitatifs sont ensuite définis pour chacun de ces critères. Une des spécificités de cette stratégie est de définir une échelle d'évaluation en cinq graduations, identique pour chaque indicateur, témoignant d'un objectif totalement atteint (++) ou pas du tout atteint (--).L'application de ce cadre méthodologique à la Symbiose nigériane a permis de déterminer quatre critères économiques, quatre critères socio-économiques et six critères environnementaux à évaluer. Pour les caractériser, 22 indicateurs ont été définis. L'évaluation de ces indicateurs a permis de montrer que le projet élaboré atteint les objectifs de durabilité fixés pour la majorité des critères. Quatre indicateurs ont un résultat neutre (0), et un cinquième montre qu'un critère n'est pas atteint (--). Ces résultats s'expliquent par le fait que le projet n'en est encore qu'à sa phase pilote et n'a donc pas encore atteint la taille et la diffusion optimales. Un suivi sur plusieurs années permettra de garantir que ces manques seront comblés.Le cadre méthodologique que j'ai développé dans cette thèse est un outil d'évaluation participatif qui pourra être utilisé dans un contexte plus large que celui des pays en développement. Son caractère générique en fait un très bon outil pour la définition de critères et indicateurs de suivi de projet en terme de développement durable.SummaryThis thesis examines the use of industrial symbiosis in developing countries and studies its potential to stimulate sustainable regional development in rural areas across Western Africa. In particular, when industrial symbiosis is instituted between a factory and the surrounding population, evaluation tools are required to ensure the project achieves truly sustainable development. Existing tools developed in industrialized countries are not entirely suited to assessing projects in developing countries. Indeed, the implicit hypotheses behind such tools reflect the socioeconomic context in which they were designed. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodological framework for evaluating the sustainability of industrial symbiosis projects in developing countries.To accomplish this, I followed a case study about the implementation of industrial symbiosis in northern Nigeria by participating as an observer since 2007. AshakaCem, a cement works of Lafarge group, must confront many issues associated with violence committed by the local rural population. Thus, the company decided to adopt a new approach inspired by the concepts of industrial symbiosis.The project involves replacing up to 10% of the fossil fuel used to heat limestone with biomass produced by local farmers. To avoid jeopardizing the fragile security of regional food supplies, farmers are taught ways to combat erosion and naturally fertilize the soil. They can then use biomass cultivation to improve their subsistence crops. Through this industrial symbiosis, AshakaCem follows social objectives (to lay the necessary foundations for regional development), but also environmental ones (to reduce its overall CO2 emissions) and economical ones (to reduce its energy costs). The company is firmly rooted in a view of sustainable development that is conditional upon the project's execution.By observing this symbiosis and by being familiar with existing tools, I note that assessing the sustainability of projects in developing countries requires using evaluation criteria that are specific to each project. Indeed, using generic criteria results in an assessment that is too far removed from what is needed and from the local reality. Thus, by drawing inspiration from such internationally known tools as Life Cycle Analysis and the Global Reporting Initiative, I define a generic methodological framework for the participative establishment of an evaluation methodology specific to each project.The strategy follows six phases that are fulfilled iteratively so as to improve the evaluation methodology and the project itself as it moves forward. During these phases, the social, economic, and environmental needs and objectives of the stakeholders are identified, grouped, ranked, and expressed as criteria for evaluation. Quantitative or qualitative indicators are then defined for each of these criteria. One of the characteristics of this strategy is to define a five-point evaluation scale, the same for each indicator, to reflect a goal that was completely reached (++) or not reached at all (--).Applying the methodological framework to the Nigerian symbiosis yielded four economic criteria, four socioeconomic criteria, and six environmental criteria to assess. A total of 22 indicators were defined to characterize the criteria. Evaluating these indicators made it possible to show that the project meets the sustainability goals set for the majority of criteria. Four indicators had a neutral result (0); a fifth showed that one criterion had not been met (--). These results can be explained by the fact that the project is still only in its pilot phase and, therefore, still has not reached its optimum size and scope. Following up over several years will make it possible to ensure these gaps will be filled.The methodological framework presented in this thesis is a highly effective tool that can be used in a broader context than developing countries. Its generic nature makes it a very good tool for defining criteria and follow-up indicators for sustainable development.

Adapting dating violence prevention to francophone Switzerland: a story of intra-western cultural differences.

Dating violence prevention programs, which originated in the United States, are beginning to be implemented elsewhere. This article presents the first adaptation of a violence prevention program for a European culture, Francophone Switzerland. A U.S. dating violence prevention program, Safe Dates (Foshee & Langwick, 1994), was reviewed in 19 youth and 4 professional focus groups. The most fundamental program concepts--"dating" and "violence"--are not the same in Switzerland and the United States. Swiss youth were not very focused on establishing monogamous romantic relationships, and there is no ready translation for "dating." Violence has not become the focus of a social movement in Switzerland to the same extent that it has in the United States, and distinctions among terms such as "dating violence" and "domestic violence" are not well known. Psychoeducational approaches are also less common in the Swiss context. As the movement to prevent violence extends worldwide, these issues need greater consideration.

Genetic survey of "spinturnix sp" (Acari, Mesostigmata) and their bat hosts in Western Palearctic

SUMMARY : The coevolution between two intimately associated organisms, like host and parasite, is a widely investigated theme in evolutionary biology. Recently, the use of genetic data in the study of host-parasite systems evidences that the genetic information from some parasites can complement genetic data from their hosts and thus may help to better understand their host's evolutionary history. Phylogenetic and population genetic aspects of bat parasites have been poorly investigated. Spinturnicid mites are highly specialized ectoparasites, exclusively associated with bats and therefore represent an ideal model to extant our knowledge on bat and parasite biology and on their coevolutionary history. In this thesis, I developed several molecular markers (mitochondrial DNA) to compare the genetic patterns of Spinturnix mites with their bat hosts at different levels. The molecular co-phylogeny between Spinturnix sp. and their bat hosts suggests a partial cospeciation and the occurrence of failure to speciate events and multiple host switches. Thus, Spinturnix mites do not exactly mirror the phylogenetic pattern of their hosts, despite their intimate association. Similar roosting habits of the hosts seem to promote host switches between different species, as far as ecological conditions are favourable. The phylogeographic study of the Maghrebian bat M. punicus in the Mediterranean area confirms the presence of M. punicus in North Africa, Corsica and Sardinia and highlights that islands and mainland are genetically highly divergent. The comparison between the parasitic mite S. myoti and the Maghrebian bat suggests that the phylogeographic pattern of the mite is moulded by its host, with open water as main barrier for host and parasite dispersal. Moreover, the unique presence of a European S. myoti lineage on M. punicus from Corsica strongly suggests the former presence of mouse-eared bats (M. myotis and/or M. blythii) in Corsica. By highlighting the probable presence of a nowadays locally extinct host species, S. myoti may represent a good proxy for inferring complex evolutionary history of bat hosts. Finally, population genetic surveys of S. myoti and S. bechsteinii suggest that these mites benefit from close contacts between individuals during the mating season and/or hibernation to disperse among remote colonies. The contrasted genetic patterns of these two distinct bat-mite systems evidence that bat social structure is a determinant factor of the genetic structure of mite populations. Altogether, this PhD thesis demonstrates the usefulness of parasites to gather information about their bat hosts. In addition, my results illustrate how different ecological and biological characteristics of bat species allow the emergence of a surprising diversity in the genetic patterns of the parasites, which may contribute to the diversification and speciation of parasites. RESUME : La co-évolution entre deux organismes intimement liés, comme un parasite et son hôte, fait partie des questions largement étudiées en biologie évolutive. Récemment, l'utilisation de données génétique dans l'étude des interactions hôte-parasite a montré que l'information génétique de certains parasites peut compléter les données génétiques de l'hôte et ainsi peut éclairer l'histoire évolutive de leur hôte. Très peu études ont étudié les interactions entre les chauves-souris et leurs parasites d'un point de vue moléculaire. Les acariens du genre Spinturnix sont des ectoparasites très spécialisés exclusivement associés aux chauves-souris. Ils représentent donc un model idéal pour élargir nos connaissances tant sur l'écologie des parasites de chauves-souris que sur leur coévolution. Durant cette thèse, plusieurs marqueurs moléculaires (ADN mitochondrial) ont été développés pour ainsi comparer la distribution de la variation génétique des parasites du genre Spinturnix avec celle de leurs hôtes, et ceci à différents niveaux. Tout d'abord, la co-phylogénie moléculaire entre les espèces de Spinturnix et les leurs hôtes révèle une co-spéciation partielle ainsi que la présence d'événement de non spéciation et de transferts horizontaux. Ces parasites ne reflètent donc pas entièrement l'histoire évolutive de leurs hôtes, malgré leurs intimes associations. La cohabitation de plusieurs espèces de chauves-souris dans un même gîte permet aux parasites un transfert entre différentes espèces, atténuant ainsi leur degré de co-spéciation. Deuxièmement, l'étude phylogéographique du marin du Maghreb dans le bassin Méditerranéen confirme sa présence en Afrique du Nord, en Corse et en Sardaigne. La comparaison avec un de ses parasites S. myoti suggère que la répartition génétique de S. myoti est façonnée par celle de leurs hôtes, avec les étendues d'eau comme barrière principale tant à la dispersion de l'hôte que de son parasite. De plus, la présence unique d'une lignée européenne de ces parasites sur des marins du Maghreb de Corse suggère fortement la présence du grand ou petit marin en Corse dans le passé. En reflétant la présence potentielle à un endroit donné d'une espèce de chauve-souris actuellement disparue, S. myoti peut représenter une bonne alternative pour comprendre l'histoire évolutive complexe des chauves-souris. Finalement, l'étude des structures génétiques des populations des parasites S. myoti et S. bechsteinii suggère que les contacts corporels entre chauves-souris durant la saison de reproduction ou l'hibernation peuvent permettre la dispersion des parasites entre des colonies éloignées géographiquement. La différence de structure génétique entre ces deux associations particulières montre que la structure génétique des populations de parasites dépend fortement des traits d'histoire de vie de son hôte. Dans l'ensemble, cette thèse démontre l'importance des parasites pour amener des informations sur leurs hôtes, les chauves-souris. Elle illustre aussi comment les différences écologique et biologique des différentes espèces de chauves-souris peuvent amener une étonnante diversité de structure génétique au sein de populations de parasites, ce qui peut peut-être contribuer à la diversification et à la spéciation des parasites.

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Genetic differentiation in two European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulations in contrasted landscapes of Western Switzerland

The survival of threatened species as the European tree frog (Hyla arborea) is strongly dependent on the genetic variability within populations, as well as gene flow between them. In Switzerland, only two sectors in its western part still harbour metapopulations. The first is characterised by a very heterogeneous and urbanized landscape, while the second is characterised by a uninterrupted array of suitable habitats. In this study, six microsatellite loci were used to establish levels of genetic differentiation among the populations from the two different locations. The results show that the metapopulations have: (i) weak levels of genetic differentiation (FST within metapopulation ≈ 0.04), (ii) no difference in levels of genetic structuring between them, (iii) significant (p = 0.019) differences in terms of genetic diversity (Hs) and observed heterozygozity (Ho), the metapopulation located in a disturbed landscape showing lower values. Our results suggest that even if the dispersal of H. arborea among contiguous ponds seems to be efficient in areas of heterogeneous landscape, a loss of genetic diversity can occur.

Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change.

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

Life histories and distribution of ostracods with depth in western Lake Geneva (Petit-Lac), Switzerland: A reconnaissance study

Because environmental conditions within a given basin are different for each season and at different water depth, knowledge of the life history and depth distribution of target species is important for environmental and palaeoenvironmental interpretations based on ostracod species assemblages and/or the geochemical compositions of their valves. In order to determine the distribution of species with depth as well as the life history of species from Lake Geneva, a one year sampling campaign of living ostracods was conducted at five sites (2, 5, 13, 33 and 70 m water depth) on a monthly basis in the Petit-Lac (western basin of Lake Geneva, Switzerland). Based on the results, the different species can be classified into three groups. Littoral taxa are found at 2 and 5 m water depth and include, in decreasing numbers of individuals, Cypridopsis vidua (O. F.Müller, 1776), Pseudocandona compressa (Koch, 1838), Limnocythere inopinata (Baird, 1843), Herpetocypris reptans (Baird, 1835), Potamocypris smaragdina (Vávra, 1891), Potamocypris similis (G. W. Müller, 1912), Plesiocypridopsis newtoni (Brady & Robertson, 1870), Prionocypris zenkeri (Chyzer & Toth, 1858) and Ilyocypris sp. Brady & Norman, 1889. Sublittoral species are found in a majority at 13 m water depth and to a lesser extend at 33 m water depth and include, in decreasing numbers of individuals, Fabaeformiscandona caudata (Kaufmann, 1900), Limnocytherina sanctipatricii, Candona candida (O. F. Müller, 1776) and Isocypris beauchampi (Paris, 1920). Profundal species are found equally at 13, 33 and 70 m water depth and includes, in decreasing numbers of individuals, Cytherissa lacustris (Sars, 1863), Candona neglecta Sars, 1887 and Cypria lacustris Lilljeborg, 1890. The occurrence of Limnocytherina sanctipatricii (Brady & Robertson, 1869) is restricted from late winter to late spring when temperatures are low, while C. vidua, L. inopinata, P. smaragdina, P. similis, P. newtoni and Ilyocypris sp. occur predominantly from spring to early autumn when temperatures are high. Individuals of C. neglecta, C. candida, F. caudata, P. compressa, C. lacustris, H. reptans and Cp. lacustris occur throughout the year with juveniles and adults occurring during the same period (C. neglecta at 70 m, C. lacustris at 13, 33 and 70 m, and H. reptans at 2, 5 and 13 m water depth) or with juveniles occurring during a different period of the year than adults (C. neglecta at 13 and 33 m and C. candida, F. caudata and P. compressa at their respective depth of occurrence). Among the environmental parameters investigated, an estimate of the relationship between ostracod autoecology and environmental parameters suggests that in the Petit-Lac: (i) water temperature and substrate characteristics are important factors controlling the distribution of species with depth, (ii) water temperature is also important for determining the timing of species development and, hence, its specific life history, and (iii) water oxygen and sedimentary organic matter content is less important compared to the other environmental parameter monitored.

Prognostic ability of practitioners of traditional arabic medicine: comparison with Western methods through a relative patient progress scale.

The ancient Greek medical theory based on balance or imbalance of humors disappeared in the western world, but does survive elsewhere. Is this survival related to a certain degree of health care efficiency? We explored this hypothesis through a study of classical Greco-Arab medicine in Mauritania. Modern general practitioners evaluated the safety and effectiveness of classical Arabic medicine in a Mauritanian traditional clinic, with a prognosis/follow-up method allowing the following comparisons: (i) actual patient progress (clinical outcome) compared with what the traditional 'tabib' had anticipated (= prognostic ability) and (ii) patient progress compared with what could be hoped for if the patient were treated by a modern physician in the same neighborhood. The practice appeared fairly safe and, on average, clinical outcome was similar to what could be expected with modern medicine. In some cases, patient progress was better than expected. The ability to correctly predict an individual's clinical outcome did not seem to be better along modern or Greco-Arab theories. Weekly joint meetings (modern and traditional practitioners) were spontaneously organized with a modern health centre in the neighborhood. Practitioners of a different medical system can predict patient progress. For the patient, avoiding false expectations with health care and ensuring appropriate referral may be the most important. Prognosis and outcome studies such as the one presented here may help to develop institutions where patients find support in making their choices, not only among several treatment options, but also among several medical systems.