Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Leader corruption depends on power and testosterone

We used incentivized experimental games to manipulate leader power-the number of followers and the discretion leaders had to enforce their will. Leaders had complete autonomy in deciding payouts to themselves and their followers. Although leaders could make prosocial decisions to benefit the public good they could also abuse their power by invoking antisocial decisions, which reduced the total payouts to the group but increased leader's earnings. In Study 1 (N = 478), we found that both amount of followers and discretionary choices independently predicted leader corruption. In Study 2 (N = 240), we examined how power and individual differences (e.g., personality, hormones) affected leader corruption over time; power interacted with testosterone in predicting corruption, which was highest when leader power and baseline testosterone were both high. Honesty predicted initial level of leader antisocial decisions; however, honesty did not shield leaders from the corruptive effect of power.

Predicting optimal lengths of random knots

In a thermally fluctuating long linear polymeric chain in a solution, the ends, from time to time, approach each other. At such an instance, the chain can be regarded as closed and thus will form a knot or rather a virtual knot. Several earlier studies of random knotting demonstrated that simpler knots show a higher occurrence for shorter random walks than do more complex knots. However, up to now there have been no rules that could be used to predict the optimal length of a random walk, i.e. the length for which a given knot reaches its highest occurrence. Using numerical simulations, we show here that a power law accurately describes the relation between the optimal lengths of random walks leading to the formation of different knots and the previously characterized lengths of ideal knots of a corresponding type.

Personality traits and virtual reality performance.

BACKGROUND: Surgeons' personalities have been described as different from those of the general population, but this was based on small descriptive studies limited by the choice of evaluation instrument. Furthermore, although the importance of the human factor in team performance has been recognized, the effect of personality traits on technical performance is unknown. This study aimed to compare surgical residents' personality traits with those of the general population and to evaluate whether an association exists between their personality traits and technical performance using a virtual reality (VR) laparoscopy simulator. METHODS: In this study, 95 participants (54 residents with basic, 29 with intermediate laparoscopic experience, and 12 students) underwent personality assessment using the NEO-Five Factor Inventory and performed five VR tasks of the Lap Mentor? basic tasks module. The residents' personality traits were compared with those of the general population, and the association between VR performance and personality traits was investigated. RESULTS: Surgical residents showed personality traits different from those of the general population, demonstrating lower neuroticism, higher extraversion and conscientiousness, and male residents showed greater openness. In the multivariable analysis, adjusted for gender and surgical experience, none of the personality traits was found to be an independent predictor of technical performance. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical residents present distinct personality traits that differ from those of the general population. These traits were not found to be associated with technical performance in a virtual environment. The traits may, however, play an important role in team performance, which in turn is highly relevant for optimal surgical performance.

Assessment of construct validity of a virtual reality laparoscopy simulator.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess whether virtual reality (VR) can discriminate between the skills of novices and intermediate-level laparoscopic surgical trainees (construct validity), and whether the simulator assessment correlates with an expert's evaluation of performance. METHODS: Three hundred and seven (307) participants of the 19th-22nd Davos International Gastrointestinal Surgery Workshops performed the clip-and-cut task on the Xitact LS 500 VR simulator (Xitact S.A., Morges, Switzerland). According to their previous experience in laparoscopic surgery, participants were assigned to the basic course (BC) or the intermediate course (IC). Objective performance parameters recorded by the simulator were compared to the standardized assessment by the course instructors during laparoscopic pelvitrainer and conventional surgery exercises. RESULTS: IC participants performed significantly better on the VR simulator than BC participants for the task completion time as well as the economy of movement of the right instrument, not the left instrument. Participants with maximum scores in the pelvitrainer cholecystectomy task performed the VR trial significantly faster, compared to those who scored less. In the conventional surgery task, a significant difference between those who scored the maximum and those who scored less was found not only for task completion time, but also for economy of movement of the right instrument. CONCLUSIONS: VR simulation provides a valid assessment of psychomotor skills and some basic aspects of spatial skills in laparoscopic surgery. Furthermore, VR allows discrimination between trainees with different levels of experience in laparoscopic surgery establishing construct validity for the Xitact LS 500 clip-and-cut task. Virtual reality may become the gold standard to assess and monitor surgical skills in laparoscopic surgery.

A Dethroned King? The Limits of State Infrastructural Power in France

Since the 1980s in Western Europe, centralized states' control over subnational territories has been deeply affected by processes of Europeanization and regionalization. These changes have raised the issue of state territorial restructuring in a particular fashion: what capacity have formerly centralized states retained to steer and control subnational territories? The article draws on Mann's concept of infrastructural power, which refers to the state's capacity to exercise control and implement political decisions over the national territory. The article applies the two main operationalizations of the concept, namely the capability of the state to exercise control and the weight of the state in the subnational territories. Empirically, the article focuses on the French state in two policy sectors (education and housing). Although France is a most likely case, this article challenges this expectation, and shows the limits of the French state's infrastructural power over the subnational territories since the late 1980s.