What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

Valuing equity-linked death benefits in jump diffusion models

The paper is motivated by the valuation problem of guaranteed minimum death benefits in various equity-linked products. At the time of death, a benefit payment is due. It may depend not only on the price of a stock or stock fund at that time, but also on prior prices. The problem is to calculate the expected discounted value of the benefit payment. Because the distribution of the time of death can be approximated by a combination of exponential distributions, it suffices to solve the problem for an exponentially distributed time of death. The stock price process is assumed to be the exponential of a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process whose upward and downward jumps are modeled by combinations (or mixtures) of exponential distributions. Results for exponential stopping of a Lévy process are used to derive a series of closed-form formulas for call, put, lookback, and barrier options, dynamic fund protection, and dynamic withdrawal benefit with guarantee. We also discuss how barrier options can be used to model lapses and surrenders.

Evaluation of serum myostatin and sclerostin levels in chronic spinal cord injured patients.

STUDY DESIGN: Case-control study. OBJECTIVES: To assess serum myostatin levels, bone mineral density (BMD), appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASMM) and serum sclerostin levels in chronic spinal cord injured (SCI) patients and healthy controls. SETTING: SCI centre in Italy. METHODS: Blood samples, whole-body bioelectrical impedance analysis and BMD measurement with the ultrasound technique at the calcaneus level were taken from patients suffering from chronic SCI (both motor complete and incomplete) and healthy control subjects. RESULTS: A total of 28 SCI patients and 15 healthy controls were enrolled. Serum myostatin levels were statistically higher (P<0.01) in SCI patients compared with healthy controls. Similar results were found comparing both the motor complete and the motor incomplete SCI subgroups to healthy controls. Serum sclerostin was significantly higher in patients with SCI compared with healthy controls (P<0.01). BMD, stiffness and mean T-score values in SCI patients were significantly lower than those in healthy controls. Serum myostatin concentrations in the motor complete SCI subgroups correlated only with serum sclerostin levels (r(2)=0.42; P=0.001) and ASMM (r(2)=0.70; P=0.002) but not in healthy controls. DISCUSSION: Serum myostatin and serum sclerostin are significantly higher in chronic SCI patients compared with healthy controls. They are potential biomarkers of muscle and bone modifications after SCI. This is the first study reporting an increase in serum myostatin in patients suffering from chronic SCI and a correlation with ASMM.

'And the best essay is...' : Extended contact and cross-group friendships at school

We conducted one experimental intervention based on extended contact principles aimed at fostering the formation of cross-group friendships within educational settings. Italian school children took part in a school competition for the best essay on personal experiences of cross-group friendships with immigrants, to be written in small groups. This manipulation was intended to favour the exchange of personal positive cross-group experiences, thus capitalizing on the benefits of extended contact. In the control condition, participants wrote an essay on friendship, without reference to cross-group relations. Results revealed that children who took part in the intervention reported a higher number of outgroup friends 3 months later. This indirect effect was sequentially mediated by pro-contact ingroup and outgroup norms and by outgroup contact behavioural intentions. This study provides experimental evidence that interventions based on extended contact can foster cross-group friendship formation. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.