Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

RETINOBLASTOMA RELATED1 Regulates Asymmetric Cell Divisions in Arabidopsis.

Formative, also called asymmetric, cell divisions produce daughter cells with different identities. Like other divisions, formative divisions rely first of all on the cell cycle machinery with centrally acting cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) and their cyclin partners to control progression through the cell cycle. However, it is still largely obscure how developmental cues are translated at the cellular level to promote asymmetric divisions. Here, we show that formative divisions in the shoot and root of the flowering plant Arabidopsis thaliana are controlled by a common mechanism that relies on the activity level of the Cdk1 homolog CDKA;1, with medium levels being sufficient for symmetric divisions but high levels being required for formative divisions. We reveal that the function of CDKA;1 in asymmetric cell divisions operates through a transcriptional regulation system that is mediated by the Arabidopsis Retinoblastoma homolog RBR1. RBR1 regulates not only cell cycle genes, but also, independent of the cell cycle transcription factor E2F, genes required for formative divisions and cell fate acquisition, thus directly linking cell proliferation with differentiation. This mechanism allows the implementation of spatial information, in the form of high kinase activity, with intracellular gating of developmental decisions.

Dispersal and Inbreeding Avoidance.

Using a game-theoretical approach, we investigate the dispersal patterns expected if inbreeding avoidance were the only reason for dispersal. The evolutionary outcome is always complete philopatry by one sex. The rate of dispersal by the other sex depends on patch size and mating system, as well as inbreeding and dispersal costs. If such costs are sex independent, then two stable equilibria coexist (male or female philopatry), with symmetric domains of attraction. Which sex disperses is determined entirely by history, genetic drift, and gene flow. An asymmetry in costs makes one domain of attraction extend at the expense of the other. In such a case, the dispersing sex might also be, paradoxically, the one that incurs the higher dispersal costs. As asymmetry increases, one equilibrium eventually disappears, which may result in a sudden evolutionary shift in the identity of the dispersing sex. Our results underline the necessity to control for phylogenetic relationships (e.g., through the use of independent-comparisons methods) when investigating empirical trends in dispersal. Our model also makes quantitative predictions on the rate of dispersal by the dispersing sex and suggests that inbreeding avoidance may only rarely be the sole reason for dispersal.

A numeric model to simulate solar individual ultraviolet exposure.

Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) light is the main causative factor for skin cancer. UV exposure depends on environmental and individual factors. Individual exposure data remain scarce and development of alternative assessment methods is greatly needed. We developed a model simulating human exposure to solar UV. The model predicts the dose and distribution of UV exposure received on the basis of ground irradiation and morphological data. Standard 3D computer graphics techniques were adapted to develop a rendering engine that estimates the solar exposure of a virtual manikin depicted as a triangle mesh surface. The amount of solar energy received by each triangle was calculated, taking into account reflected, direct and diffuse radiation, and shading from other body parts. Dosimetric measurements (n = 54) were conducted in field conditions using a foam manikin as surrogate for an exposed individual. Dosimetric results were compared to the model predictions. The model predicted exposure to solar UV adequately. The symmetric mean absolute percentage error was 13%. Half of the predictions were within 17% range of the measurements. This model provides a tool to assess outdoor occupational and recreational UV exposures, without necessitating time-consuming individual dosimetry, with numerous potential uses in skin cancer prevention and research.

Inferring ultraviolet anatomical exposure patterns while distinguishing the relative contribution of radiation components

Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the main causative factor for skin cancer. UV exposure depends on environmental and individual factors, but individual exposure data remain scarce. UV irradiance is monitored via different techniques including ground measurements and satellite observations. However it is difficult to translate such observations into human UV exposure or dose because of confounding factors (shape of the exposed surface, shading, behavior, etc.) A collaboration between public health institutions, a meteorological office and an institute specialized in computing techniques developed a model predicting the dose and distribution of UV exposure on the basis of ground irradiation and morphological data. Standard 3D computer graphics techniques were adapted to develop this tool, which estimates solar exposure of a virtual manikin depicted as a triangle mesh surface. The amount of solar energy received by various body locations is computed for direct, diffuse and reflected radiation separately. The radiation components are deduced from corresponding measurements of UV irradiance, and the related UV dose received by each triangle of the virtual manikin is computed accounting for shading by other body parts and eventual protection measures. The model was verified with dosimetric measurements (n=54) in field conditions using a foam manikin as surrogate for an exposed individual. Dosimetric results were compared to the model predictions. The model predicted exposure to solar UV adequately. The symmetric mean absolute percentage error was 13%. Half of the predictions were within 17% range of the measurements. This model allows assessing outdoor occupational and recreational UV exposures, without necessitating time-consuming individual dosimetry, with numerous potential uses in skin cancer prevention and research. Using this tool, we investigated solar UV exposure patterns with respect to the relative contribution of the direct, diffuse and reflected radiation. We assessed exposure doses for various body parts and exposure scenarios of a standing individual (static and dynamic postures). As input, the model used erythemally-weighted ground irradiance data measured in 2009 at Payerne, Switzerland. A year-round daily exposure (8 am to 5 pm) without protection was assumed. For most anatomical sites, mean daily doses were high (typically 6.2-14.6 SED) and exceeded recommended exposure values. Direct exposure was important during specific periods (e.g. midday during summer), but contributed moderately to the annual dose, ranging from 15 to 24% for vertical and horizontal body parts, respectively. Diffuse irradiation explained about 80% of the cumulative annual exposure dose. Acute diffuse exposures were also obtained for cloudy summer days. The importance of diffuse UV radiation should not be underestimated when advocating preventive measures. Messages focused on avoiding acute direct exposures may be of limited efficiency to prevent skin cancers associated with chronic exposure (e.g., squamous cell carcinomas).

Dimethylarginines, homocysteine metabolism, and cerebrospinal fluid markers for Alzheimer's disease.

Dimethylarginine and homocysteine metabolism are closely linked and alterations of both were observed in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). CSF parameters of homocysteine metabolism have recently been found to be associated with the CSF level of the AD biomarker phosphorylated tau (ptau) in AD patients. To investigate possible relationships between homocysteine and dimethylarginine metabolism and the AD CSF biomarkers ptau181 and amyloid-β 1-42 (Aβ42), we assessed parameters of homocysteine metabolism (CSF homocysteine, S-adenosylmethionine (SAM), S-adenosylhomocysteine (SAH), 5-methyltetrahydrofolate (5-MTHF)) and dimethylarginine metabolism (plasma and CSF asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), symmetric dimethylarginine, L-arginine) as well as CSF Aβ42 and ptau181 in 98 controls and 51 AD patients. Multivariate linear regression analyses were performed to assess associations between the considered parameters. SAH concentrations show significant associations to CSF ADMA levels, and CSF ADMA and L-arginine to ptau181, but not to Aβ42 concentrations in AD patients. When including concentrations of homocysteine, 5-MTHF, SAM, and SAH into the analysis, CSF ADMA concentrations independently predicted ptau181 levels in AD patients but homocysteine-related metabolites were associated with ptau181 only when ADMA was removed from the analysis model. These results suggest that CSF ADMA may interact with CNS homocysteine metabolism and may contribute to neurodegeneration and accumulation of phosphorylated tau in AD. Functional and interventional studies are needed to further proof this hypothesis.

Pupil responses derived from outer and inner retinal photoreception are normal in patients with hereditary optic neuropathy.

We compared the pupil responses originating from outer versus inner retinal photoreception between patients with isolated hereditary optic neuropathy (HON, n = 8) and healthy controls (n = 8). Three different testing protocols were used. For the first two protocols, a response function of the maximal pupil contraction versus stimulus light intensity was generated and the intensity at which half of the maximal pupil contraction, the half-max intensity, was determined. For the third protocol, the pupil size after light offset, the re-dilation rate and re-dilation amplitude were calculated to assess the post-light stimulus response. Patients with HON had bilateral, symmetric optic atrophy and significant reduction of visual acuity and visual field compared to controls. There were no significant mean differences in the response curve and pupil response parameters that reflect mainly rod, cone or melanopsin activity between patients and controls. In patients, there was a significant correlation between the half-max intensity of the red light sequence and visual field loss. In conclusion, pupil responses derived from outer or inner retinal photoreception in HON patients having mild-to moderate visual dysfunction are not quantitatively different from age-matched controls. However, an association between the degree of visual field loss and the half-max intensity of the cone response suggests that more advanced stages of disease may lead to impaired pupil light reflexes.

The Effect of Tax Revenue Budgeting Errors on Fiscal Balance : Evidence from Swiss cantons

This study is an empirical analysis of the impact of direct tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal deficits. Using panel data from 26 Swiss cantons between 1980 and 2002, we estimate a single equation model on the fiscal balance, as well as a simultaneous equation model on revenue and expenditure. We use new data on budgeted and actual tax revenue to show that underestimating tax revenue significantly reduces fiscal deficits. Furthermore, we show that this effect is channeled through decreased expenditure. The effects of over and underestimation turn out to be symmetric.

A model for the evolution of reinforcement learning in fluctuating games

Many species are able to learn to associate behaviours with rewards as this gives fitness advantages in changing environments. Social interactions between population members may, however, require more cognitive abilities than simple trial-and-error learning, in particular the capacity to make accurate hypotheses about the material payoff consequences of alternative action combinations. It is unclear in this context whether natural selection necessarily favours individuals to use information about payoffs associated with nontried actions (hypothetical payoffs), as opposed to simple reinforcement of realized payoff. Here, we develop an evolutionary model in which individuals are genetically determined to use either trial-and-error learning or learning based on hypothetical reinforcements, and ask what is the evolutionarily stable learning rule under pairwise symmetric two-action stochastic repeated games played over the individual's lifetime. We analyse through stochastic approximation theory and simulations the learning dynamics on the behavioural timescale, and derive conditions where trial-and-error learning outcompetes hypothetical reinforcement learning on the evolutionary timescale. This occurs in particular under repeated cooperative interactions with the same partner. By contrast, we find that hypothetical reinforcement learners tend to be favoured under random interactions, but stable polymorphisms can also obtain where trial-and-error learners are maintained at a low frequency. We conclude that specific game structures can select for trial-and-error learning even in the absence of costs of cognition, which illustrates that cost-free increased cognition can be counterselected under social interactions.

Fatal Cervical Spine Injury From Diving Accident.

Spinal cord injuries result after diving into shallow water, often after incautious jumps head first into water of unknown depth during recreational or sport activities. Mortality is generally due to upper cervical trauma. The authors present a case of a diving-related death in a young woman who underwent medicolegal investigations. The measured water depth at the supposed dive site was 1.40 m. Postmortem radiology and autopsy revealed fractures of the body and the posterior arch of the fifth cervical vertebra, a fracture of the right transverse process of the sixth cervical vertebra and hemorrhages involving the cervical paraspinal muscles. Neuropathology showed a posterior epidural hematoma involving the whole cervical region and a symmetric laceration of the spinal cord located at the fourth and fifth cervical vertebra level, surrounded by multiple petechial hemorrhages. Toxicology revealed the presence of ethanol in both blood and urine samples. The death was attributed to cervical spine fracture (C5-C6), spinal cord contusion, and subsequent drowning. This case highlights the usefulness of postmortem radiology, examination of the deep structures of the neck, toxicology, neuropathology, and a detailed research of signs of drowning to formulate appropriate hypotheses pertaining to the cause and mechanism of death.

Derivation of an observer model adapted to irregular signals based on convolution channels.

Anthropomorphic model observers are mathe- matical algorithms which are applied to images with the ultimate goal of predicting human signal detection and classification accuracy across varieties of backgrounds, image acquisitions and display conditions. A limitation of current channelized model observers is their inability to handle irregularly-shaped signals, which are common in clinical images, without a high number of directional channels. Here, we derive a new linear model observer based on convolution channels which we refer to as the "Filtered Channel observer" (FCO), as an extension of the channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) and the nonprewhitening with an eye filter (NPWE) observer. In analogy to the CHO, this linear model observer can take the form of a single template with an external noise term. To compare with human observers, we tested signals with irregular and asymmetrical shapes spanning the size of lesions down to those of microcalfications in 4-AFC breast tomosynthesis detection tasks, with three different contrasts for each case. Whereas humans uniformly outperformed conventional CHOs, the FCO observer outperformed humans for every signal with only one exception. Additive internal noise in the models allowed us to degrade model performance and match human performance. We could not match all the human performances with a model with a single internal noise component for all signal shape, size and contrast conditions. This suggests that either the internal noise might vary across signals or that the model cannot entirely capture the human detection strategy. However, the FCO model offers an efficient way to apprehend human observer performance for a non-symmetric signal.

The DYRK-family kinase Pom1 phosphorylates the F-BAR protein Cdc15 to prevent division at cell poles.

Division site positioning is critical for both symmetric and asymmetric cell divisions. In many organisms, positive and negative signals cooperate to position the contractile actin ring for cytokinesis. In rod-shaped fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe cells, division at midcell is achieved through positive Mid1/anillin-dependent signaling emanating from the central nucleus and negative signals from the dual-specificity tyrosine phosphorylation-regulated kinase family kinase Pom1 at the cell poles. In this study, we show that Pom1 directly phosphorylates the F-BAR protein Cdc15, a central component of the cytokinetic ring. Pom1-dependent phosphorylation blocks Cdc15 binding to paxillin Pxl1 and C2 domain protein Fic1 and enhances Cdc15 dynamics. This promotes ring sliding from cell poles, which prevents septum assembly at the ends of cells with a displaced nucleus or lacking Mid1. Pom1 also slows down ring constriction. These results indicate that a strong negative signal from the Pom1 kinase at cell poles converts Cdc15 to its closed state, destabilizes the actomyosin ring, and thus promotes medial septation.

Risk factors of postictal generalized EEG suppression in generalized convulsive seizures.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical determinants of occurrence of postictal generalized EEG suppression (PGES) after generalized convulsive seizures (GCS). METHODS: We reviewed the video-EEG recordings of 417 patients included in the REPO2MSE study, a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. According to ictal semiology, we classified GCS into 3 types: tonic-clonic GCS with bilateral and symmetric tonic arm extension (type 1), clonic GCS without tonic arm extension or flexion (type 2), and GCS with unilateral or asymmetric tonic arm extension or flexion (type 3). Association between PGES and person-specific or seizure-specific variables was analyzed after correction for individual effects and the varying number of seizures. RESULTS: A total of 99 GCS in 69 patients were included. Occurrence of PGES was independently associated with GCS type (p < 0.001) and lack of early administration of oxygen (p < 0.001). Odds ratio (OR) for GCS type 1 in comparison with GCS type 2 was 66.0 (95% confidence interval [CI 5.4-801.6]). In GCS type 1, risk of PGES was significantly increased when the seizure occurred during sleep (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.2-20.9) and when oxygen was not administered early (OR 13.4, 95% CI 3.2-55.9). CONCLUSION: The risk of PGES dramatically varied as a function of GCS semiologic characteristics. Whatever the type of GCS, occurrence of PGES was prevented by early administration of oxygen.

Congenital Nystagmus Gene FRMD7 Is Necessary for Establishing a Neuronal Circuit Asymmetry for Direction Selectivity.

Neuronal circuit asymmetries are important components of brain circuits, but the molecular pathways leading to their establishment remain unknown. Here we found that the mutation of FRMD7, a gene that is defective in human congenital nystagmus, leads to the selective loss of the horizontal optokinetic reflex in mice, as it does in humans. This is accompanied by the selective loss of horizontal direction selectivity in retinal ganglion cells and the transition from asymmetric to symmetric inhibitory input to horizontal direction-selective ganglion cells. In wild-type retinas, we found FRMD7 specifically expressed in starburst amacrine cells, the interneuron type that provides asymmetric inhibition to direction-selective retinal ganglion cells. This work identifies FRMD7 as a key regulator in establishing a neuronal circuit asymmetry, and it suggests the involvement of a specific inhibitory neuron type in the pathophysiology of a neurological disease. VIDEO ABSTRACT.