Spatiotemporal analysis of forensic case data: a visualisation approach

Whether for investigative or intelligence aims, crime analysts often face up the necessity to analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of crimes or traces left by suspects. This article presents a visualisation methodology supporting recurrent practical analytical tasks such as the detection of crime series or the analysis of traces left by digital devices like mobile phone or GPS devices. The proposed approach has led to the development of a dedicated tool that has proven its effectiveness in real inquiries and intelligence practices. It supports a more fluent visual analysis of the collected data and may provide critical clues to support police operations as exemplified by the presented case studies.

Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

The InterActive Choice Aid: A new approach to supporting online consumer decision making

Interactive Choice Aid (ICA) is a decision aid, introduced in this paper, that systematically assists consumers with online purchase decisions. ICA integrates aspects from prescriptive decision theory, insights from descriptive decision research, and practical considerations; thereby combining pre-existing best practices with novel features. Instead of imposing an objectively ideal but unnatural decision procedure on the user, ICA assists the natural process of human decision-making by providing explicit support for the execution of the user's decision strategies. The application contains an innovative feature for in-depth comparisons of alternatives through which users' importance ratings are elicited interactively and in a playful way. The usability and general acceptance of the choice aid was studied; results show that ICA is a promising contribution and provides insights that may further improve its usability.

Supporting interdisciplinary case studies: development and implementation of a joint learning environment for students in forensic science and criminal law

Scientific reporting and communication is a challenging topic for which traditional study programs do not offer structured learning activities on a regular basis. This paper reports on the development and implementation of a web application and associated learning activities that intend to raise the awareness of reporting and communication issues among students in forensic science and law. The project covers interdisciplinary case studies based on a library of written reports about forensic examinations. Special features of the web framework, in particular a report annotation tool, support the design of various individual and group learning activities that focus on the development of knowledge and competence in dealing with reporting and communication challenges in the students' future areas of professional activity.

A regional Industrial Symbiosis methodology and its implementation in Geneva, Switzerland

The Agenda 21 for the Geneva region is the results from a broad consultation process including all local actors. The article 12 stipulates that « the State facilitates possible synergies between economic activities in order to minimize their environmental impacts » thus opening the way for Industrial Ecology (IE) and Industrial Symbiosis (IS). An Advisory Board for Industrial Ecology and Industrial Symbiosis implementation was established in 2002 involving relevant government agencies. Regulatory and technical conditions for IS are studied in the Swiss context. Results reveal that the Swiss law on waste does not hinder by-product exchanges. Methodology and technical factors including geographic, qualitative, quantitative and economical aspects are detailed. The competition with waste operators in a highly developed recycling system is also tackled.The IS project develops an empirical and systematic method for detecting and implementing by-products synergies between industrial actors disseminated throughout the Geneva region. Database management tool for the treatment of input-output analysis data and GIS tools for detecting potentials industrial partners are constantly improved. Potential symbioses for 17 flows (including energy, water and material flows) are currently studied for implementation.

Application of text-mining for updating protein post-translational modification annotation in UniProtKB.

BACKGROUND: The annotation of protein post-translational modifications (PTMs) is an important task of UniProtKB curators and, with continuing improvements in experimental methodology, an ever greater number of articles are being published on this topic. To help curators cope with this growing body of information we have developed a system which extracts information from the scientific literature for the most frequently annotated PTMs in UniProtKB. RESULTS: The procedure uses a pattern-matching and rule-based approach to extract sentences with information on the type and site of modification. A ranked list of protein candidates for the modification is also provided. For PTM extraction, precision varies from 57% to 94%, and recall from 75% to 95%, according to the type of modification. The procedure was used to track new publications on PTMs and to recover potential supporting evidence for phosphorylation sites annotated based on the results of large scale proteomics experiments. CONCLUSIONS: The information retrieval and extraction method we have developed in this study forms the basis of a simple tool for the manual curation of protein post-translational modifications in UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot. Our work demonstrates that even simple text-mining tools can be effectively adapted for database curation tasks, providing that a thorough understanding of the working process and requirements are first obtained. This system can be accessed at http://eagl.unige.ch/PTM/.

Etude prospective d'évaluation psychiatrique et pédagogique dans un service pour adolescents de la Fondation Santé des Etudiants de France. Méthodologie et résultats préliminaires [Prospective study of psychiatric and pedagogic evaluation of the adolescent service of the Student Health Foundation of France. Methodology and preliminary results].

The present prospective study, with a five-year follow-up, presents an extensive psychiatric and educational assessment of an adolescent population (N = 30) in the age range 14-20, suffering from several psychiatric disorders, though apt to follow a normal academic program. The residential settings where the study took place provide both psychiatric and schooling facilities. In this environment, what is the effectiveness of long-term hospitalization? Are there any criteria for predicting results? After discharge, could social adjustments difficulties be prevented? Assessment instruments are described and the results of one preliminary study are presented. The actual data seems to confirm the impact of the special treatment facilities combining schooling and psychiatric settings on the long term outcome of adolescents.

Traitement de la dépression résistante par l'association citalopram-lithium. Méthodologie d'une étude multicentrique en double aveugle et résultats préliminaires [Treatment of resistant depression with the citalopram-lithium combination. Methodology of a double-blind multicenter study and preliminary results].

Citalopram, a new bicyclic antidepressant, is the most selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor. In a number of double-blind controlled studies, citalopram was compared to placebo and to known tricyclic antidepressants. These studies have shown their efficacy and good safety. The inefficacy of a psychotropic treatment in at least 20% of depressives has led a number of authors to propose original drug combinations and associations, like antidepressant/lithium (Li), antidepressant/sleep deprivation (agrypnia), antidepressant/ECT, or antidepressant/LT3. The aim of this investigation is to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and safety of a combined citalopram/lithium treatment in therapy-resistant patients, taking account of serotonergic functions, as tested by the fenfluramine/prolactin test, and of drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacogenetics of metabolism. DESIGN OF THE STUDY: A washout period of 3 days before initiating the treatment is included. After an open treatment phase of 28 days (D) with citalopram (20 mg D1-D3; 40 mg D4-D14; 40 or 60 mg D15-D28; concomitant medication allowed: chloral, chlorazepate), the nonresponding patients [less than 50% improvement in the total score on the 21 item-Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS)] are selected and treated with or without Li (randomized in double-blind conditions: citalopram/Li or citalopram/placebo) during the treatment (D29-D35). Thereafter, all patients included in the double-blind phase subsequently receive an open treatment with citalopram/Li for 7 days (D36-D42). The hypothesis of a relationship between serotoninergic functions in patients using the fenfluramine/prolactin test (D1) and the clinical response to citalopram (and Li) is assessed. Moreover, it is evaluated whether the pharmacogenetic status of the patients, as determined by the mephenytoin/dextromethorphan test (D0-D28), is related to the metabolism of fenfluramine and citalopram, and also to the clinical response. CLINICAL ASSESSMENT: Patients with a diagnosis of major depressive disorders according to DSM III are submitted to a clinical assessment of D1, D7, D14, D28, D35, D42: HDRS, CGI (clinical global impression), VAS (visual analog scales for self-rating of depression), HDRS (Hamilton depression rating scale, 21 items), UKU (side effects scale), and to clinical laboratory examens, as well as ECG, control of weight, pulse, blood pressure at D1, D28, D35. Fenfluramine/prolactin test: A butterfly needle is inserted in a forearm vein at 7 h 45 and is kept patent with liquemine. Samples for plasma prolactin, and d- and l-fenfluramine determinations are drawn at 8 h 15 (base line). Patients are given 60 mg fenfluramine (as a racemate) at 8 h 30. Kinetic points are determined at 9 h 30, 10 h 30, 11 h 30, 12 h 30, 13 h 30. Plasma levels of d- and l-fenfluramine are determined by gas chromatography and prolactin by IRNA. Mephenytoin/dextromethorphan test: Patients empty their bladders before the test; they are then given 25 mg dextropethorphan and 100 mg mephenytoin (as a racemate) at 8 h 00. They collect all urines during the following 8 hours. The metabolic ratio is determined by gas chromatography (metabolic ratio dextromethorphan/dextrorphan greater than 0.3 = PM (poor metabolizer); mephenytoin/4-OH-mephenytoin greater than 5.6, or mephenytoin S/R greater than 0.8 = PM). Citalopram plasma levels: Plasma levels of citalopram, desmethylcitalopram and didesmethylcitalopram are determined by gas chromatography--mass spectrometry. RESULTS OF THE PILOT STUDY. The investigation has been preceded by a pilot study including 14 patients, using the abovementioned protocol, except that all nonresponders were medicated with citalopram/Li on D28 to D42. The mean total score (n = 14) on the 21 item Hamilton scale was significantly reduced after the treatment, ie from 26.93 +/- 5.80 on D1 to 8.57 +/- 6.90 on D35 (p less than 0.001). A similar patCitalopram, a new bicyclic antidepressant, is the most selective serotonin reu

The PsyCoLaus study: methodology and characteristics of the sample of a population-based survey on psychiatric disorders and their association with genetic and cardiovascular risk factors.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The Psychiatric arm of the population-based CoLaus study (PsyCoLaus) is designed to: 1) establish the prevalence of threshold and subthreshold psychiatric syndromes in the 35 to 66 year-old population of the city of Lausanne (Switzerland); 2) test the validity of postulated definitions for subthreshold mood and anxiety syndromes; 3) determine the associations between psychiatric disorders, personality traits and cardiovascular diseases (CVD), 4) identify genetic variants that can modify the risk for psychiatric disorders and determine whether genetic risk factors are shared between psychiatric disorders and CVD. This paper presents the method as well as somatic and sociodemographic characteristics of the sample. METHODS: All 35 to 66 year-old persons previously selected for the population-based CoLaus survey on risk factors for CVD were asked to participate in a substudy assessing psychiatric conditions. This investigation included the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies to elicit diagnostic criteria for threshold disorders according to DSM-IV and algorithmically defined subthreshold syndromes. Complementary information was gathered on potential risk and protective factors for psychiatric disorders, migraine and on the morbidity of first-degree family members, whereas the collection of DNA and plasma samples was part of the original somatic study (CoLaus). RESULTS: A total of 3,691 individuals completed the psychiatric evaluation (67% participation). The gender distribution of the sample did not differ significantly from that of the general population in the same age range. Although the youngest 5-year band of the cohort was underrepresented and the oldest 5-year band overrepresented, participants of PsyCoLaus and individuals who refused to participate revealed comparable scores on the General Health Questionnaire, a self-rating instrument completed at the somatic exam. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations resulting from the relatively low participation in the context of a comprehensive and time-consuming investigation, the PsyCoLaus study should significantly contribute to the current understanding of psychiatric disorders and comorbid somatic conditions by: 1) establishing the clinical relevance of specific psychiatric syndromes below the DSM-IV threshold; 2) determining comorbidity between risk factors for CVD and psychiatric disorders; 3) assessing genetic variants associated with common psychiatric disorders and 4) identifying DNA markers shared between CVD and psychiatric disorders.

A methodology to estimate the potential to move inpatient to one day surgery.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of surgery performed as a day case varies greatly between countries. Low rates suggest a large growth potential in many countries. Measuring the potential development of one day surgery should be grounded on a comprehensive list of eligible procedures, based on a priori criteria, independent of local practices. We propose an algorithmic method, using only routinely available hospital data to identify surgical hospitalizations that could have been performed as one day treatment. METHODS: Moving inpatient surgery to one day surgery was considered feasible if at least one surgical intervention was eligible for one day surgery and if none of the following criteria were present: intervention or affection requiring an inpatient stay, patient transferred or died, and length of stay greater than four days. The eligibility of a procedure to be treated as a day case was mainly established on three a priori criteria: surgical access (endoscopic or not), the invasiveness of the procedure and the size of the operated organ. Few overrides of these criteria occurred when procedures were associated with risk of immediate complications, slow physiological recovery or pain treatment requiring hospital infrastructure. The algorithm was applied to a random sample of one million inpatient US stays and more than 600 thousand Swiss inpatient stays, in the year 2002. RESULTS: The validity of our method was demonstrated by the few discrepancies between the a priori criteria based list of eligible procedures, and a state list used for reimbursement purposes, the low proportion of hospitalizations eligible for one day care found in the US sample (4.9 versus 19.4% in the Swiss sample), and the distribution of the elective procedures found eligible in Swiss hospitals, well supported by the literature. There were large variations of the proportion of candidates for one day surgery among elective surgical hospitalizations between Swiss hospitals (3 to 45.3%). CONCLUSION: The proposed approach allows the monitoring of the proportion of inpatient stay candidates for one day surgery. It could be used for infrastructure planning, resources negotiation and the surveillance of appropriate resource utilization.

Mortality associated with diabetes and cardiovascular disease in older women.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) recommend diabetes as a CVD risk equivalent. However, reports that have examined the risk of diabetes in comparison to pre-existing CVD are lacking among older women. We aimed to assess whether diabetes was associated with a similar risk of total and cause-specific mortality as a history of CVD in older women. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied 9218 women aged 68 years or older enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fracture) during a mean follow-up period of 11.7 years and compared all-cause, cardiovascular and coronary heart disease mortality among 4 groups: non-diabetic women with and without existing CVD, diabetic women with and without existing CVD. Mean (SD) age of the participants was 75.2 (5.3) years, 3.5% reported diabetes and 6.8% reported existing CVD. During follow-up, 5117 women died with 36% from CVD. The multivariate adjusted risk of cardiovascular mortality was increased among both non-diabetic women with CVD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.32, 95% CI: 1.97-2.74, P<0.001) and diabetic women without CVD (HR 2.06, CI: 1.62-2.64, P<0.001) compared to non-diabetic women without existing CVD. All-cause, cardiovascular and coronary mortality of non-diabetic women with CVD were not significantly different from diabetic women without CVD. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Older diabetic women without CVD have a similar risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to non-diabetic women with pre-existing CVD. The equivalence of diabetes and CVD seems to extend to older women, supporting current guidelines for cardiovascular prevention.