Statistical evaluation of the influence of writing postures on on-line signatures. Study of the impact of time.

The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of unusual writing positions on a person's signature, in comparison to a standard writing position. Ten writers were asked to sign their signature six times, in each of four different writing positions, including the standard one. In order to take into consideration the effect of the day-to-day variation, this same process was repeated over 12 sessions, giving a total of 288 signatures per subject. The signatures were collected simultaneously in an off-line and on-line acquisition mode, using an interactive tablet and a ballpoint pen. Unidimensional variables (height to width ratio; time with or without in air displacement) and time-dependent variables (pressure; X and Y coordinates; altitude and azimuth angles) were extracted from each signature. For the unidimensional variables, the position effect was assessed through ANOVA and Dunnett contrast tests. Concerning the time-dependent variables, the signatures were compared by using dynamic time warping, and the position effect was evaluated through classification by linear discriminant analysis. Both of these variables provided similar results: no general tendency regarding the position factor could be highlighted. The influence of the position factor varies according to the subject as well as the variable studied. The impact of the session factor was shown to cover the impact that could be ascribed to the writing position factor. Indeed, the day-to-day variation has a greater effect than the position factor on the studied signature variables. The results of this study suggest guidelines for best practice in the area of signature comparisons and demonstrate the importance of a signature collection procedure covering an adequate number of sampling sessions, with a sufficient number of samples per session.

Assessing multiple sclerosis activity: is the in vitro production of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukins 2, 6, 4, and 10, and immunoglobulin G of value?

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha, interleukins (IL) 2, 4, 6, and 10, and IgG oligoclonal bands (IgG OB) in vitro production was assessed, after whole-blood stimulation with lipopolysaccharide or concanavalin A, in 61 patients presenting with relapsing-remitting, relapsing-progressive, or chronic progressive multiple sclerosis. Multiple sclerosis patients were receiving no treatment or azathioprine (AZA), cyclosporin, cyclophosphamide, subcutaneous interferon (IFN) beta 1 a, or corticosteroids (CST). Statistical correlations significantly showed that: (a) AZA lowers TNF-alpha (P = 0.002) and increases IL-4 production (P = 0.0024), and IFN-beta 1 a increases TNF-alpha and decreases IL-4 levels; (b) CST has a negative effect on TNF-alpha, IL-6, and IL-4 synthesis; and (c) AZA, IFN-beta 1 a, and CST diminish IgG OB synthesis (P = 0.001). Although our study of the dynamics of TNF-alpha, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 in vitro production generally found no statistically significant correlations (partly explained by the limited number of values in the various groups), IL-6 was shown to drop during the periods surrounding relapse (P = 0.05) in the absence of treatment, while TNF-alpha (P = 0.04) and IL-6 (P < 0.05) dropped before exacerbation in the presence of AZA. In vitro production of TNF-alpha was closely and positively correlated with that of IL-6, independently of clinical features. The enhanced production of IL-10 detected before or at relapse with AZA and IFN-beta 1 a (trends) may interfere with initiation of the immune reaction and with the development of new CNS lesions. Some discrepancies with previously published results stress the difficulties in studying the state of stimulation of different populations of leukocytes by using a variety of in vitro stimuli and in establishing a correlation between mRNA studies and the amount of final or active protein produced.

Imaging Properties of MS Lesions Correlate with Attention Deficits in Early Multiple Sclerosis

Introduction: Cognitive impairment affects 40-65% of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, often since early stages of the disease (relapsing remitting MS, RRMS). Frequently affected functions are memory, attention or executive abilities but the most sensitive measure of cognitive deficits in early MS is the information processing speed (Amato, 2008). MRI has been extensively exploited to investigate the substrate of cognitive dysfunction in MS but the underlying physiopathological mechanisms remain unclear. White matter lesion load, whole-brain atrophy and cortical lesions' number play a role but correlations are in some cases modest (Rovaris, 2006; Calabrese, 2009). In this study, we aimed at characterizing and correlating the T1 relaxation times of cortical and sub-cortical lesions with cognitive deficits detected by neuropsychological tests in a group of very early RR MS patients. Methods: Ten female patients with very early RRMS (age: 31.6 ±4.7y; disease duration: 3.8 ±1.9y; EDSS disability score: 1.8 ±0.4) and 10 age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers (mean age: 31.2 ±5.8y) were included in the study. All participants underwent the following neuropsychological tests: Rao's Brief Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological tests (BRB-N), Stockings of Cambridge, Trail Making Test (TMT, part A and B), Boston Naming Test, Hooper Visual Organization Test and copy of the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure. Within 2 weeks from neuropsychological assessment, participants underwent brain MRI at 3T (Magnetom Trio a Tim System, Siemens, Germany) using a 32-channel head coil. The imaging protocol included 3D sequences with 1x1x1.2 mm3 resolution and 256x256x160 matrix, except for axial 2D-FLAIR: -DIR (T2-weighted, suppressing both WM and CSF; Pouwels, 2006) -MPRAGE (T1-weighted; Mugler, 1991) -MP2RAGE (T1-weighted with T1 maps; Marques, 2010) -FLAIR SPACE (only for patient 4-10, T2-weighted; Mugler, 2001) -2D Axial FLAIR (0.9x0.9x2.5 mm3, 256x256x44 matrix). Lesions were identified by one experienced neurologist and radiologist using all contrasts, manually contoured and assigned to regional locations (cortical or sub-cortical). Lesion number, volume and T1 relaxation time were calculated for lesions in each contrast and in a merged mask representing the union of the lesions from all contrasts. T1 relaxation times of lesions were normalized with the mean T1 value in corresponding control regions of the healthy subjects. Statistical analysis was performed using GraphPad InStat software. Cognitive scores were compared between patients and controls with paired t-tests; p values ≤ 0.05 were considered significant. Spearmann correlation tests were performed between the cognitive tests, which differed significantly between patients and controls, and lesions' i) number ii) volume iii) T1 relaxation time iv) disease duration and v) years of study. Results: Cortical and sub-cortical lesions count, T1 values and volume are reported in Table 1 (A and B). All early RRMS patients showed cortical lesions (CLs) and the majority consisted of CLs type I (lesions with a cortical component extending to the sub-cortical tissue). The rest of cortical lesions were characterized as type II (intra-cortical lesions). No type III/IV lesions (large sub-pial lesions) were detected. RRMS patients were slightly less educated (13.5±2.5y vs. 16.3±1.8y of study, p=0.02) than the controls. Signs of cortical dysfunction (i.e. impaired learning, language, visuo-spatial skills or gnosis) were rare in all patients. However, patients showed on average lower scores on measures of visual attention and information processing speed (TMT-part A: p=0.01; TMT-part B: p=0.006; PASAT-included in the BRB-N: p=0.04). The T1 relaxation values of CLs type I negatively correlated with the TMT-part A score (r=0.78, p<0.01). The correlations of TMT-part B score and PASAT score with T1 relaxation time of lesions as well and the correlation between TMT-part A, TMT-part B and PASAT score with lesions' i) number ii) volume iii) disease duration and iv) years of study did not reach significance. In order to preclude possible influences from partial volume effects on the T1 values, the correlation between lesion volume and T1 value of CLs type I was calculated; no correlation was found, suggesting that partial volume effects did not affect the statistics. Conclusions: The present pilot study reports for the first time the presence and the T1 characteristics at 3 T of cortical lesions in very early RRMS (< 6 y disease duration). It also shows that CLS type I represents the most frequent cortical lesion type in this cohort of RRMS patients. In addition, it reveals a negative correlation between the attentional test TMT-part A and the T1 properties of cortical lesions type I. In other words, lower attention deficits are concomitant with longer T1-relaxation time in cortical lesions. In respect to this last finding, it could be speculated that long relaxation time correspond to a certain degree of tissue loss that is enough to stimulate compensatory mechanisms. This hypothesis is in line with previous fMRI studies showing functional compensatory mechanisms to help maintaining normal or sub-normal attention performances in RR MS patients (Penner, 2003).

Evaluation of two immunoassays for the measurement of human chorionic gonadotropin in urine for anti-doping purposes.

Background: Urinary human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) concentration is routinely measured in all anti-doping laboratories to exclude the misuse of recombinant or urinary hCG preparations. In this study, extended validation of two commercial immunoassays for hCG measurements in urine was performed. Both tests were initially designed for hCG determination in human serum/plasma. Methods: Access (R) and Elecsys (R) 1010 are two automated immunoanalysers for central laboratories. The limits of detection and quantification, as well as intra-laboratory and inter-technique correlation, precision, and accuracy, were determined. Stability studies of hCG in urine following freezing and thawing cycles (n = 3) as well as storage conditions at room temperature, 4 degrees C and 20 degrees C, were performed. Results: Statistical evaluation of hCG concentrations in male urine samples (n = 2429) measured with the Elecsys (R) 1010 system enabled us to draw a skewed frequency histogram and establish a far outside value equal to 2.3 IU/L. This decision limit corresponds to the concentration at which a sportsman will be considered positive for hCG. Intra-assay precision for the Access (R) analyser was less than 4.0 A, whereas the inter-assay precision was closer to 4.5 % (concentrations of the official external controls contained between 5.5 and 195.0 IU/L). Intra and inter-assay precision for the Elecsys (R) 1010 analyser was slightly better. A good inter-technique correlation was obtained when measuring various urine samples (male and female). No urinary hCG loss was observed after two freeze/thaw cycles. On the other hand, time and inappropriate storage conditions, such as temperatures above 10 degrees C for more than 5 days, can deteriorate urinary hCG. Conclusions: Both analysers showed acceptable performances and are suitable for screening urine for anti-doping analyses. Each laboratory should validate and establish its own reference values because hCG concentrations measured in urine can be different from one immunoassay to another. The time delay between urine collection and analysis should be reduced as much as possible, and urine samples should be transported in optimal conditions to avoid a loss of hCG immunoreactivity.

How Low Can We Go in Contrast-Enhanced CT Imaging of the Chest?: A Dose-Finding Cadaver Study Using the Model-based Iterative Image Reconstruction Approach.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Dose reduction may compromise patients because of a decrease of image quality. Therefore, the amount of dose savings in new dose-reduction techniques needs to be thoroughly assessed. To avoid repeated studies in one patient, chest computed tomography (CT) scans with different dose levels were performed in corpses comparing model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) as a tool to enhance image quality with current standard full-dose imaging. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-five human cadavers were scanned (CT HD750) after contrast medium injection at different, decreasing dose levels D0-D5 and respectively reconstructed with MBIR. The data at full-dose level, D0, have been additionally reconstructed with standard adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR), which represented the full-dose baseline reference (FDBR). Two radiologists independently compared image quality (IQ) in 3-mm multiplanar reformations for soft-tissue evaluation of D0-D5 to FDBR (-2, diagnostically inferior; -1, inferior; 0, equal; +1, superior; and +2, diagnostically superior). For statistical analysis, the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Wilcoxon test were used. RESULTS: Mean CT dose index values (mGy) were as follows: D0/FDBR = 10.1 ± 1.7, D1 = 6.2 ± 2.8, D2 = 5.7 ± 2.7, D3 = 3.5 ± 1.9, D4 = 1.8 ± 1.0, and D5 = 0.9 ± 0.5. Mean IQ ratings were as follows: D0 = +1.8 ± 0.2, D1 = +1.5 ± 0.3, D2 = +1.1 ± 0.3, D3 = +0.7 ± 0.5, D4 = +0.1 ± 0.5, and D5 = -1.2 ± 0.5. All values demonstrated a significant difference to baseline (P < .05), except mean IQ for D4 (P = .61). ICC was 0.91. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to ASIR, MBIR allowed for a significant dose reduction of 82% without impairment of IQ. This resulted in a calculated mean effective dose below 1 mSv.

Postoperative cognitive dysfunction POCD, serum anticholinergic activity and intraoperative cerebral perfusion in geriatric patients

Background: Inadequate intraoperative cerebral perfusion and increased serum anticholinergic activity (SAA) have been suggested as possible causes of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD). Methods: 53 patients aged >65 yrs undergoing elective major surgical procedures under standardized general anaesthesia. Cerebral perfusion was monitored with transcranial Doppler and near-infrared spectroscopy. Mx, an index of cerebral autoregulation was calculated based on the correlation of spontaneous changes inmean arterial blood pressure (MAP) and cerebral blood flow velocity. Cognitive function was measured preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively using the CERAD-Neuropsychological Battery. A postoperative decline >1 z-score in at least 2 cognitive variables was defined as POCD. SAA was measured preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively (data available for 38 patients). CRP was measured at the same time points and 2 days postoperatively. Results: Age was 75_7 yrs (mean_SD). 23 patients (43%) developed POCD. There were no statistical significant differences between patients with POCD and without POCD in age (77_7 vs 73_6 yrs), MAP (74_12 vs 78_11 mmHg), cerebral tissue oxygenation indices (67_6 vs 69_4 %) SAA preoperatively (1.74_1.52 vs 1.74_1.21) and 7 days postoperatively (1.90_1.63 vs 1.84_1.39) and CRP preoperatively (32_72 vs 7_9), 2 days postoperatively (176_129 vs 111_69) and 7days postoperatively (53_43 vs 48_25). Patients with POCD had less efficient autoregulation than patients without POCD (Mx 0.55_0.15 vs 0.45_0.20, p = 0.046). However, the percentage of patients with clearly impaired autoregulation (ie, Mx>0.5) was statistically not different between groups (with POCD: 65%; without POCD: 38%; p = 0.06) but there seems to be a trend. Conclusions: Our data on the association between cerebral perfusion and POCD in elderly patients are inconclusive and more patients need to be investigated. In this small group of patients SAA seems not to be associated with POCD.

Antibiotic-dependent correlation between drug-induced killing and loss of luminescence in Streptococcus gordonii expressing luciferase.

Measuring antibiotic-induced killing relies on time-consuming biological tests. The firefly luciferase gene (luc) was successfully used as a reporter gene to assess antibiotic efficacy rapidly in slow-growing Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We tested whether luc expression could also provide a rapid evaluation of bactericidal drugs in Streptococcus gordonii. The suicide vectors pFW5luc and a modified version of pJDC9 carrying a promoterless luc gene were used to construct transcriptional-fusion mutants. One mutant susceptible to penicillin-induced killing (LMI2) and three penicillin-tolerant derivatives (LMI103, LMI104, and LMI105) producing luciferase under independent streptococcal promoters were tested. The correlation between antibiotic-induced killing and luminescence was determined with mechanistically unrelated drugs. Chloramphenicol (20 times the MIC) inhibited bacterial growth. In parallel, luciferase stopped increasing and remained stable, as determined by luminescence and Western blots. Ciprofloxacin (200 times the MIC) rapidly killed 1.5 log10 CFU/ml in 2-4 hr. Luminescence decreased simultaneously by 10-fold. In contrast, penicillin (200 times the MIC) gave discordant results. Although killing was slow (&lt; or = 0.5 log10 CFU/ml in 2 hr), luminescence dropped abruptly by 50-100-times in the same time. Inactivating penicillin with penicillinase restored luminescence, irrespective of viable counts. This was not due to altered luciferase expression or stability, suggesting some kind of post-translational modification. Luciferase shares homology with aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase and acyl-CoA ligase, which might be regulated by macromolecule synthesis and hence affected in penicillin-inhibited cells. Because of resemblance, luciferase might be down-regulated simultaneously. Luminescence cannot be universally used to predict antibiotic-induced killing. Thus, introducing reporter enzymes sharing mechanistic similarities with normal metabolic reactions might reveal other effects than those expected.

Telomerase activity and human telomerase reverse transcriptase mRNA expression in soft tissue tumors: correlation with grade, histology, and proliferative activity.

Telomerase activity (TA) is detected in most human cancers but, with few exceptions, not in normal somatic cells. Little is known about TA in soft tissue tumors. We have examined a series of benign and malignant soft tissue tumors for TA using the telomerase repeat amplification protocol assay. Analysis of the expression of the human telomerase reverse transcriptase was also carried out using RT-PCR. TA was undetectable in benign lesions (15 of 15) and low-grade sarcomas (6 of 6) and was detectable in 50% (19 of 38) of intermediate-/high-grade sarcomas. Although the presence of TA in soft tissue tumors is synonymous with malignancy, it is neither a reliable method in making the distinction between reactive/benign and malignant (especially low-grade) lesions nor a reliable marker of tumor aggressiveness. Leiomyosarcomas and storiform/pleomorphic malignant fibrous histiocytomas rarely showed TA, irrespective of their grade. A strong correlation between human telomerase reverse transcriptase mRNA expression and TA was observed, supporting the close relationship between both parameters. No significant relationship was observed between proliferative activity (as assessed by MIB-1 immunolabeling) and TA. We verified that the absence of telomerase expression was not due to the presence of telomerase inhibitors and therefore alternative mechanism(s) for cell immortalization, yet to be determined, seem to be involved in the development and/or maintenance of some soft tissue sarcomas.

CD30 in PTCLS: correlation between RNA and protein levels in a large european series from the LYSA

Introduction: CD22 is expressed on most B-non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL); inotuzumab ozogamicin (INO) is an anti-CD22 antibody conjugated to calicheamicin. This study evaluated the safety and tolerability of INO plus R-CVP in patients (pts) with relapsed/refractory CD22+ B-NHL. Efficacy data were also collected. Methods: Part 1 of this open-label study identified a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of INO 0.8mg/m,2 on day 2 plus R-CVP (rituximab 375mg/m,2 cyclophosphamide 750mg/m,2 and vincristine 1.4mg/m,2 on day 1; prednisone 40mg/m,2 on days 1-5) every 21 days. Subsequently, pts were enrolled in the MTD confirmation cohort (part 2, n = 10), which required a dose-limiting toxicity rate of <33% in cycle 1 and <4 pts discontinuing prior to cycle 3 due to an adverse event (AE) in the MTD expansion cohort (part 3, n = 22), which explored preliminary activity. Results: Parts 2 and 3 enrolled 32 pts: 16 pts with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, 15 with follicular lymphoma and one with mantle cell lymphoma. Median age was 64.5 years (range 44-81 years); 34% of pts had 1 prior regimen, 34% had 2, 28% had ≥3 and 3% had none (median 2; range 0-6).Median treatment duration was five cycles (range 1-6). Part 2 confirmed the MTD as standard dose R-CVP plus INO 0.8mg/m,2; 2/10 pts had a dose-limiting toxicity (grade 3 increased ALT/AST, grade 4 neutropenia requiring G-CSF). One pt discontinued because of an AE prior to cycle 3. Common treatment-related AEs were thrombocytopenia (78%), neutropenia (66%), fatigue (50%), leukopenia (50%), nausea (41%) and lymphopenia (38%); common grade 3/4 AEs were neutropenia (63%), thrombocytopenia (53%), leukopenia (38%) and lymphopenia (31%). There was one case of treatment-related fatal pneumonia with grade 4 neutropenia. Ten pts discontinued treatment due to AEs; thrombocytopenia/delayed platelet recovery was the leading cause (grade 1/2, n = 6; grade 3/4, n = 3). Objective response rate (ORR) was 77% (n = 24/31 evaluable pts), including 26% (n=8/31) with complete response (CR); three pts had stable disease. Of the pts with follicular lymphoma, ORR was 100% (n = 15/15), including seven pts with CR. Of the pts with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, ORR was 60% (n = 9/16), including one pt with CR. Conclusions: Results suggest that INOplus R-CVP has acceptable toxicity and promising activity in relapsed/refractory CD22+ B-NHL. The most common grade 3/4 AEs were hematologic. Follow-up for progression-free and overall survival is ongoing.

Detection of ingested cocaine-filled packets: comparison of filtered back projection CT with adaptive statistical iterative reconstructed images

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value and image quality of CT with filtered back projection (FBP) compared with adaptive statistical iterative reconstructed images (ASIR) in body stuffers with ingested cocaine-filled packets.Methods and Materials: Twenty-nine body stuffers (mean age 31.9 years, 3 women) suspected for ingestion of cocaine-filled packets underwent routine-dose 64-row multidetector CT with FBP (120kV, pitch 1.375, 100-300 mA and automatic tube current modulation (auto mA), rotation time 0.7sec, collimation 2.5mm), secondarily reconstructed with 30 % and 60 % ASIR. In 13 (44.83%) out of the body stuffers cocaine-filled packets were detected, confirmed by exact analysis of the faecal content including verification of the number (range 1-25). Three radiologists independently and blindly evaluated anonymous CT examinations (29 FBP-CT and 68 ASIR-CT) for the presence and number of cocaine-filled packets indicating observers' confidence, and graded them for diagnostic quality, image noise, and sharpness. Sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) Az and interobserver agreement between the 3 radiologists for FBP-CT and ASIR-CT were calculated.Results: The increase of the percentage of ASIR significantly diminished the objective image noise (p<0.001). Overall sensitivity and specificity for the detection of the cocaine-filled packets were 87.72% and 76.15%, respectively. The difference of ROC area Az between the different reconstruction techniques was significant (p= 0.0101), that is 0.938 for FBP-CT, 0.916 for 30 % ASIR-CT, and 0.894 for 60 % ASIR-CT.Conclusion: Despite the evident image noise reduction obtained by ASIR, the diagnostic value for detecting cocaine-filled packets decreases, depending on the applied ASIR percentage.

Is the ability of biocontrol fluorescent pseudomonads to produce the antifungal metabolite 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol really synonymous with higher plant protection?

The antifungal compound 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (Phl) contributes to biocontrol in pseudomonads, but whether or not Phl(+) biocontrol pseudomonads display higher plant-protecting activity than Phl(-) biocontrol pseudomonads remains to be demonstrated. This issue was addressed by assessing 230 biocontrol fluorescent pseudomonads selected from a collection of 3132 bacterial isolates obtained from 63 soils worldwide. One-third of the biocontrol pseudomonads were Phl(+) and almost all Phl(+) isolates also produced hydrogen cyanide (HCN). The only Phl(+) HCN(-) strain did harbor hcn genes, but with the deletion of a 134 bp hcnC fragment corresponding to an ADP-binding motif. Statistical analysis of biocontrol isolate distributions indicated that Phl production ability was associated with superior disease suppression activity in the Pythium-cucumber and Fusarium-tomato pathosystems, but this was also the case with HCN production ability. However, HCN significance was not as strong, as indicated both by the comparison of Phl(-) HCN(+) and Phl(-) HCN(-) strains and by correlation analyses. This is the first population-level demonstration of the higher plant-protecting activity of Phl(+) biocontrol pseudomonads in comparison with Phl(-) biocontrol pseudomonads.

Relation of cardiac troponin I measurements at 24 and 48 hours to magnetic resonance-determined infarct size in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

Levels of circulating cardiac troponin I (cTnI) or T are correlated to extent of myocardial destruction after an acute myocardial infarction. Few studies analyzing this relation have employed a second-generation cTnI assay or cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) as the imaging end point. In this post hoc study of the Efficacy of FX06 in the Prevention of Mycoardial Reperfusion Injury (F.I.R.E.) trial, we aimed at determining the correlation between single-point cTnI measurements and CMR-estimated infarct size at 5 to 7 days and 4 months after a first-time ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and investigating whether cTnI might provide independent prognostic information regarding infarct size at 4 months even taking into account early infarct size. Two hundred twenty-seven patients with a first-time STEMI were included in F.I.R.E. All patients received primary percutaneous coronary intervention within 6 hours from onset of symptoms. cTnI was measured at 24 and 48 hours after admission. CMR was conducted within 1 week of the index event (5 to 7 days) and at 4 months. Pearson correlations (r) for infarct size and cTnI at 24 hours were r = 0.66 (5 days) and r = 0.63 (4 months) and those for cTnI at 48 hours were r = 0.67 (5 days) and r = 0.65 (4 months). In a multiple regression analysis for predicting infarct size at 4 months (n = 141), cTnI and infarct location retained an independent prognostic role even taking into account early infarct size. In conclusion, a single-point cTnI measurement taken early after a first-time STEMI is a useful marker for infarct size and might also supplement early CMR evaluation in prediction of infarct size at 4 months.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant species richness: a comparison of direct macroecological and species stacking approaches

Aim This study compares the direct, macroecological approach (MEM) for modelling species richness (SR) with the more recent approach of stacking predictions from individual species distributions (S-SDM). We implemented both approaches on the same dataset and discuss their respective theoretical assumptions, strengths and drawbacks. We also tested how both approaches performed in reproducing observed patterns of SR along an elevational gradient.Location Two study areas in the Alps of Switzerland.Methods We implemented MEM by relating the species counts to environmental predictors with statistical models, assuming a Poisson distribution. S-SDM was implemented by modelling each species distribution individually and then stacking the obtained prediction maps in three different ways - summing binary predictions, summing random draws of binomial trials and summing predicted probabilities - to obtain a final species count.Results The direct MEM approach yields nearly unbiased predictions centred around the observed mean values, but with a lower correlation between predictions and observations, than that achieved by the S-SDM approaches. This method also cannot provide any information on species identity and, thus, community composition. It does, however, accurately reproduce the hump-shaped pattern of SR observed along the elevational gradient. The S-SDM approach summing binary maps can predict individual species and thus communities, but tends to overpredict SR. The two other S-SDM approaches the summed binomial trials based on predicted probabilities and summed predicted probabilities - do not overpredict richness, but they predict many competing end points of assembly or they lose the individual species predictions, respectively. Furthermore, all S-SDM approaches fail to appropriately reproduce the observed hump-shaped patterns of SR along the elevational gradient.Main conclusions Macroecological approach and S-SDM have complementary strengths. We suggest that both could be used in combination to obtain better SR predictions by following the suggestion of constraining S-SDM by MEM predictions.