Analyse comparée de régimes institutionnels de gestion des réseaux urbains de l'eau en station touristique de montagne : les cas de Crans-Montana (Suisse) et de Morzine-Avoriaz (France)

La station touristique représente un espace urbain consacré principalement au tourisme, tout en comprenant également une population résidente permanente. Du point de vue de la gestion des réseaux urbains de l'eau, cette caractéristique induit pour ce type de lieu des usages propres à tout espace urbain mais également des spécificités liées à la forte fluctuation saisonnière de la population résidente ou encore à la présence d'usages particuliers tels que l'irrigation des golfs, la production de neige artificielle ou le thermalisme. Dès lors, la planification de l'approvisionnement est délicate et peu prévisible. Ces difficultés sont renforcées par le fait que les concentrations temporelles de la demande coïncident généralement avec des périodes de stress hydrique notable. Dans le cas de stations balnéaires, les pics de fréquentation interviennent en général durant l'été lorsque la ressource en eau est peu disponible. Le problème est similaire dans les stations touristiques de montagne où l'eau est généralement indisponible car stockée sous forme de neige durant les mois de forte fréquentation. De plus, ces difficultés sont souvent renforcées par la localisation géographique des stations touristiques, fréquemment situées dans des espaces sensibles du point de vue de la ressource en eau, avec des situations de pénuries temporelles, voire structurelles. Ces problématiques propres à la plupart des stations touristiques mènent souvent à de fortes rivalités entre, d'une part, les différents usages touristiques de la ressource, et d'autre part, les usages autochtones et touristiques. Les particularités liées au tourisme tendent ainsi à renforcer les rivalités entre différents types de secteurs d'activité (approvisionnement en eau potable, tourisme, hydroélectricité, enneigement artificiel, irrigation, etc.). Ces différents usages de la ressource mis en concurrence nécessitent dès lors la mise en oeuvre de réglementations structurées à travers des politiques publiques ainsi que des droits de propriété et selon des composantes nationales, régionales et locales ; soit un cadre institutionnel que nous proposons d'appeler Régime Institutionnel de Ressource (RIR) (Knoepfel et al. 2001, 2007). A travers cette thèse de doctorat, nous répondons à différentes questions de recherche. Nous tentons d'abord de comprendre comment ces différents RIR sont-ils mis en oeuvre dans le cadre d'espaces touristiques ? Comment ceux-ci sont-ils concrétisés par les acteurs et quels sont leurs effets en termes de durabilité technique, environnementale, sociale et économique des réseaux urbains de l'eau ? Nous questionnons ensuite les effets du tourisme sur la gestion des infrastructures de réseau à l'échelle de la station touristique et de son bassin versant et nous interrogeons sur les effets du tourisme en termes de gestion des eaux urbaines. Nous portons notre attention sur deux stations touristiques situées dans deux contextes institutionnels différents (Crans-Montana en Suisse et Morzine-Avoriaz en France) et y étudions trois types de régimes institutionnels en particulier : la régie directe (gestion publique), l'affermage (gestion déléguée) et la gestion privée des infrastructures. Les résultats de cette thèse de doctorat indiquent tout d'abord dans quelle mesure le tourisme modifie de façon significative la perception et les modalités de gestion de la ressource en eau et des infrastructures. Ils montrent ensuite que l'espace fonctionnel de la gestion de ces infrastructures correspond rarement aux limites du réseau hydrographique naturel et quelles en sont les implications en termes de durabilité. Enfin, la comparaison de différents régimes institutionnels révèle les forces et les faiblesses de chaque modèle de gestion dans le cas spécifique des stations touristiques et également les différentes solutions adoptées localement pour la mise en oeuvre d'un arrangement institutionnel permettant un usage plus ou moins durable des infrastructures de réseau et du réseau hydrographique naturel. - Tourism resort represents an urban area mainly dedicated to tourism while including at the same time a permanent residential population. From the point of view of urban water networks, this characteristic induces a strong seasonal fluctuation of residential population and involves special water uses such as golf irrigation, production of artificial snow or functioning of thermal baths. Therefore, water supply planning can be tricky and difficult to predict. These difficulties are reinforced by the fact that temporary concentrations of water demand coïncidé generally with periods of water stress. In the case of seaside resorts, frequenting peaks arise in general during summer when water resource is less available. The problem is similar in mountainous tourist resorts where water is generally unavailable as it is stored as snow during months of highest frequenting. Furthermore, these difficulties are often reinforced by resorts' geographical localisations, which are often situated in sensitive areas in terms of temporary or structural water shortages. These problematic issues often lead to strong rivalries between tourists' water uses on the one hand, and between locals and tourists uses on the other hand. Thus, features of tourism tend to reinforce rivalries between different sectors of activity (supply of drinking water, tourism, hydroelectricity, artificial snow, irrigation, etc.). These different and competing water uses need the implementation of rules structured through public policies and property rights and through national, regional and local legal components; We propose to call this framework as an Institutional Resource Regime (IRR) (Knoepfel et al. 2001, 2007, 2009). Through this PhD thesis, we answer different research questions. We firstly aim to understand how those different IRR are implemented within tourism spaces? How do actors materialize them and what are their effects in term of technical, environmental, social and economical sustainability of urban water networks? We then, investigate effects of tourism on water networks infrastructures' management at the scale of the tourist resort and its river basin. We focus our attention on two tourist resorts situated within two different institutional contexts (Crans-Montana, Switzerland and Morzine-Avoriaz, France) and study three types of institutional regime in particular: public, delegated and private management of infrastructures. Results of this PhD thesis indicate firstly how tourism modifies in a significant way the perception and management modalities of water resource and infrastructures. Results also show that functional space of infrastructures management rarely matches with the limits of the natural river basin and indicates what it means in terms of sustainability. Finally, the comparison of different institutional regimes reveals the strengths and weakness of each management model in the specific case of tourist resorts and shows the different solutions in locally implementing an institutional arrangement for a more or less sustainable management of network infrastructures and natural water system.

Anti-doping testing at the 2008 European football championship.

Big sports events like the 2008 European Football Championship are a challenge for anti-doping activities, particularly when the sports event is hosted by two different countries and there are two laboratories accredited by the World Anti-Doping Agency. This challenges the logistics of sample collection as well as the chemical analyses, which must be carried out timeously. The following paper discusses the handling of whereabouts information for each athlete and the therapeutic use exemption system, experiences in sample collection and transportation of blood and urine samples, and the results of the chemical analysis in two different accredited laboratories. An overview of the analytical results of blood profiling and growth hormone testing in comparison with the distribution of the normal population is also presented.

BAFF, a novel ligand of the tumor necrosis factor family, stimulates B cell growth.

Members of the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) family induce pleiotropic biological responses, including cell growth, differentiation, and even death. Here we describe a novel member of the TNF family, designated BAFF (for B cell activating factor belonging to the TNF family), which is expressed by T cells and dendritic cells. Human BAFF was mapped to chromosome 13q32-34. Membrane-bound BAFF was processed and secreted through the action of a protease whose specificity matches that of the furin family of proprotein convertases. The expression of BAFF receptor appeared to be restricted to B cells. Both membrane-bound and soluble BAFF induced proliferation of anti-immunoglobulin M-stimulated peripheral blood B lymphocytes. Moreover, increased amounts of immunoglobulins were found in supernatants of germinal center-like B cells costimulated with BAFF. These results suggest that BAFF plays an important role as costimulator of B cell proliferation and function.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Extracellular matrix formation after transplantation of human embryonic stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes.

Transplantation of human embryonic stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hESC-CM) for cardiac regeneration is hampered by the formation of fibrotic tissue around the grafts, preventing electrophysiological coupling. Investigating this process, we found that: (1) beating hESC-CM in vitro are embedded in collagens, laminin and fibronectin, which they bind via appropriate integrins; (2) after transplantation into the mouse heart, hESC-CM continue to secrete collagen IV, XVIII and fibronectin; (3) integrin expression on hESC-CM largely matches the matrix type they encounter or secrete in vivo; (4) co-transplantation of hESC-derived endothelial cells and/or cardiac progenitors with hESC-CM results in the formation of functional capillaries; and (5) transplanted hESC-CM survive and mature in vivo for at least 24 weeks. These results form the basis of future developments aiming to reduce the adverse fibrotic reaction that currently complicates cell-based therapies for cardiac disease, and to provide an additional clue towards successful engraftment of cardiomyocytes by co-transplanting endothelial cells.

Double-bundle transtibial posterior cruciate ligament reconstruction with a tendon-patellar bone-semitendinosus tendon autograft: clinical results with a minimum of 2 years' follow-up.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and subjective outcomes after arthroscopic-assisted double-bundle posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) reconstruction. METHODS: A series of 15 patients with grade III isolated chronic PCL tears underwent double-bundle PCL reconstruction. Of these patients, 8 (53%) had simultaneous fractures. The mean time from accident to surgery was 10.8 months (range, 8 to 15 months). The mean age at the time of surgery was 28.2 years (range, 17 to 43 years). All of the patients reported knee insecurity during activities of daily living or light sporting activities, with associated anterior knee pain in 5 patients. Preoperatively, posterolateral or posteromedial corner injuries were ruled out through accurate clinical examination. The knees were assessed before surgery and at a mean follow-up of 3.2 years (range, 2 to 5 years) with a physical examination, 4 different rating scales, and stress radiographs obtained with a Telos device (Telos, Marburg, Germany). RESULTS: Postoperative physical examination revealed a reduction of the posterior drawer and tibial step-off in all cases, although the posterior laxity was not completely normalized. Nevertheless, the patients were subjectively better after surgery. The subjective International Knee Documentation Committee score was significantly ameliorated. With regard to the objective International Knee Documentation Committee score, 6 knees (40%) were graded as abnormal because of posterior displacement of 6 mm or greater on follow-up stress radiographs with the Telos device. On the Lysholm knee scoring scale, the score was excellent in 13% of patients and good in 87%. The mean score on the Hospital for Special Surgery knee ligament rating scale was 85.8. The Tegner activity score showed an amelioration after surgery, but no patient resumed his or her preinjury level of activities. The postoperative stress radiographs revealed an improvement in posterior instability of 50% or more in all but 3 knees (20%). CONCLUSIONS: Our technique of double-bundle PCL reconstruction produced a significant reduction in knee symptoms and allowed the patients to return to moderate or strenuous activity, although the posterior tibial translation was not completely normalized and our results appear to be no better than the results of single-bundle PCL reconstruction. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV, therapeutic case series.

Determination of testosterone misuse in sport, an international comparative study

Introduction: Urinary steroid profiling is used in doping controls to detect testosterone abuse. A testosterone over epitestosterone (T/E) ratio exceeding 4.0 is considered as suspicious of testosterone administration, irrespectively of individual heterogeneous factors such as the athlete's ethnicity. A deletion polymorphism in the UGT2B17 gene was demonstrated to account for a significant part of the inter-individual variability in the T/E between Caucasians and Asians. However, the anti-doping strategy includes the determination of carbon isotope ratio on androgen metabolites which has been demonstrated to be reliable for the direct detection of testosterone misuse. Herein, we examined the profiles and the variability in the 13C/12Cratios of urinary steroids in a widely heterogeneous cohort of professional soccer players residing in different world countries (Argentina, Italy, Japan, South-Africa, Switzerland and Uganda). Aim: The determination of threshold values based on genotype information and diet specific of the ethnicity is expected to enhance significantly the detection of testosterone misuse. Methods: The steroid profile of 57 Africans, 32 Asians, 50 Caucasians and 32 Hispanics was determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The carbon isotope ratio of selected androgens in urine specimens were determined by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). Results: Significant differences have been observed between all ethnic groups. After estimation of the prevalence of the UGT2B17 deletion/deletion genotype (African:22%; Asian:81%; Caucasian:10%; Hispanic:7%), ethnicspecific thresholds were developed for a specificity of 99% for the T/E (African:5.6; Asian:3.8; Caucasian:5.7; Hispanic:5.8). Italian and Swiss populations recorded an enrichment in 13C of the urinary steroids with respect to the other groups, thereby supporting consumption of a relatively larger proportion of C3 plants in their diet. Noteworthy, detection criteria based on the difference in the carbon isotope ratio of androsterone and pregnanediol for each population were well below the established threshold value for positive cases. Conclusion: These profiling results demonstrate that a unique and nonspecific threshold to evidence testosterone misuse is not fit for purpose. In addition, the carbon isotopic ratio from these different diet groups highlight the importance to adapt the criteria for increasing the sensitivity in the detection of exogenous testosterone. In conclusion, it may be emphasized that combining the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry including refined interpretation criteria for positivity and the subject-based profiling of steroids will most probably improve the efficiency of the confirmatory test.

16-OR: Investigation of Sharp Trauma and Gunshot Cases Using Post-mortem CT-Angiography

Investigation of violent death, especially cases of sharp trauma and gunshot, is an important part of medico-legal investigations. Beside the execution of a conventional autopsy, the performance of a post-mortem Multi-Detector Computed Tomography (MDCT)-scan has become a highly appreciated tool. In order to investigate also the vascular system, post-mortem CT-angiography has been introduced. The most studied and widespread technique is the Multi-phase post-mortem CT-angiography (MPMCTA). Its sensitivity to detect vascular lesions is even superior to conventional autopsy. The application of MPMCTA for cases of gunshot and sharp-trauma is therefore an obvious choice, as vascular lesions are common in such victims. In most cases of sharp trauma and in several cases of gunshots, death can be attributed to exsanguinations. MPMCTA is able to detect the exact source of bleeding and also to visualize trajectories, which are of most importance in these cases. The reconstructed images allow to clearly visualizing the trajectory in a way that is easily comprehensible for not medically trained legal professionals. The sensitivity of MPMCTA for soft tissue and organ lesions approximately matches the sensitivity of conventional autopsy. However, special care, experience and effective use of the imaging software is necessary for performing the reconstructions of the trajectory. Large volume consuming haemorrhages and shift of inner organs are sources of errors and misinterpretations. This presentation shall give an overview about the advantages and limitations of the use of MPMCTA for investigating cases of gunshot and sharp-trauma.

Supraclavicular flap in head and neck reconstruction: experience in 50 consecutive patients.

The supraclavicular flap (SCF) is a fasciocutaneous flap used to cover head, oral, and neck region defects after tumor resection. Its main vascular supply is the supraclavicular artery and accompanying veins and it can be harvested as a vascularised pedicled flap. The SCF serves as an excellent outer skin cover as well as a good inner mucosal lining after oral cavity and head-neck tumor resections. The flap has a wide arc of rotation and matches the skin colour and texture of the face and neck. Between March 2006 and March 2011, the pedicled supraclavicular flap was used for reconstruction in 50 consecutive patients after head and neck tumor resections and certain benign conditions in a tertiary university hospital setting. The flaps were tunnelized under the neck skin to cover the external cervicofacial defects or passed medial to the mandible to give an inner epithelial lining after the oral cavity and oropharyngeal tumor excision. Forty-four of the 50 patients had 100% flap survival with excellent wound healing. All the flaps were harvested in less than 1 h. There were four cases of distal tip desquamation and two patients had complete flap necrosis. Distal flap desquamation was observed in SCFs used for resurfacing the external skin defects after oral cavity tumor ablation and needed only conservative treatment measures. Total flap failure was encountered in two patients who had failed in previous chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell cancer of the floor of mouth and tonsil, respectively, and the SCF was used in mucosal defect closure after tumor ablation. The benefits of a pedicled fasciocutaneous supraclavicular flap are clear; it is thin, reliable, easy, and quick to harvest. In head, face and neck reconstructions, it is a good alternative to free fasciocutaneous flaps, regional pedicled myocutaneous flaps, and the deltopectoral flap.

Autoreactive T cells bypass negative selection and respond to self-antigen stimulation during infection.

Central and peripheral tolerance prevent autoimmunity by deleting the most aggressive CD8(+) T cells but they spare cells that react weakly to tissue-restricted antigen (TRA). To reveal the functional characteristics of these spared cells, we generated a transgenic mouse expressing the TCR of a TRA-specific T cell that had escaped negative selection. Interestingly, the isolated TCR matches the affinity/avidity threshold for negatively selecting T cells, and when developing transgenic cells are exposed to their TRA in the thymus, only a fraction of them are eliminated but significant numbers enter the periphery. In contrast to high avidity cells, low avidity T cells persist in the antigen-positive periphery with no signs of anergy, unresponsiveness, or prior activation. Upon activation during an infection they cause autoimmunity and form memory cells. Unexpectedly, peptide ligands that are weaker in stimulating the transgenic T cells than the thymic threshold ligand also induce profound activation in the periphery. Thus, the peripheral T cell activation threshold during an infection is below that of negative selection for TRA. These results demonstrate the existence of a level of self-reactivity to TRA to which the thymus confers no protection and illustrate that organ damage can occur without genetic predisposition to autoimmunity.

Premature epiphyseal closure in an adolescent treated by retinoids for acne: An unusual cause of anterior knee pain

Introduction.- Retinoids are effective and widely used for the treatment of severe acne. Their use can be, however, associated with numerous side effects. For example, some rare cases of premature epiphyseal closure were reported.Observation.- A sixteen-year-old soccer player consulted for bilateral progressive anterior knee pain, since two months, evoking a femoro-patellar origin. After physiotherapy, the pain decreases on the right but remained on the left. The history taking brought out the use of isotretinoin for more than 6 months (0.5 mg/kg). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings showed an irregularity of the growth plate and an important metaphyso-epiphyseal oedema, more marked on the left. The diagnosis of retinoid induced premature ephysieal closure was retained. The treatment was stopped, with a resolution of symptoms within two months. The control MRI of the left knee present persisting small sequelar thumbprint-like growth plate lesion. Eighteen months later, neither limb-length discrepancy nor static disorder was noticed.Discussion.- Premature epiphyseal closure is a rare complication of retinoid treatment of acne. Retinoids induce an invasion of the growth plate by osteoclasts and a decrease in proteoglycans synthesis. The knee seems the most involved joint. The clinical presentation is aspecific, sometimes lightly symptomatic. A careful pharmacological history and an appropriate imaging are necessary. MRI is now the gold standard. It shows an irregularity of the growth plate with an oedema on both sides. In chronic phase, a thumbprint-like image may persist. The symptoms resolution arises in few weeks after the treatment interruption. A single case of static disorder was reported until now. The small size of the growth plate interruptions, insufficient to lead to a growth disorder if the medicament is stopped early enough, explains probably it. This complication being rare, a radiological follow-up of the young patients treated by retinoids is not proposed.

Faster oxygen uptake kinetics during recovery is related to better repeated sprinting ability.

This study was designed to test the hypothesis that subjects having faster oxygen uptake (VO(2)) kinetics during off-transients to exercises of severe intensity would obtain the smallest decrement score during a repeated sprint test. Twelve male soccer players completed a graded test, two severe-intensity exercises, followed by 6 min of passive recovery, and a repeated sprint test, consisting of seven 30-m sprints alternating with 20 s of active recovery. The relative decrease in score during the repeated sprint test was positively correlated with time constants of the primary phase for the VO(2) off-kinetics (r = 0.85; p < 0.001) and negatively correlated with the VO(2) peak (r = -0.83; p < 0.001). These results strengthen the link found between VO(2) kinetics and the ability to maintain sprint performance during repeated sprints.

Rapid and selective surveillance of Arabidopsis thaliana genome annotations with Centrifuge.

Centrifuge is a user-friendly system to simultaneously access Arabidopsis gene annotations and intra- and inter-organism sequence comparison data. The tool allows rapid retrieval of user-selected data for each annotated Arabidopsis gene providing, in any combination, data on the following features: predicted protein properties such as mass, pI, cellular location and transmembrane domains; SWISS-PROT annotations; Interpro domains; Gene Ontology records; verified transcription; BLAST matches to the proteomes of A.thaliana, Oryza sativa (rice), Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila melanogaster and Homo sapiens. The tool lends itself particularly well to the rapid analysis of contigs or of tens or hundreds of genes identified by high-throughput gene expression experiments. In these cases, a summary table of principal predicted protein features for all genes is given followed by more detailed reports for each individual gene. Centrifuge can also be used for single gene analysis or in a word search mode. AVAILABILITY: http://centrifuge.unil.ch/ CONTACT: edward.farmer@unil.ch.

Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the gulf region.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

Drawbacks in the scientification of forensic science

This letter to the Editor comments on the article On the limitations of probability in conceptualizing pattern matches in forensic science by P. T. Jayaprakash (Forensic Science International