Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models

n the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.

Multiscale determinants of tree frog (Hyla arborea L.) calling ponds in western Switzerland

A tree frog (Hyla arborea L., 1758) metapopulation in western Switzerland was studied during spring 2001. All potential calling ponds in an area of 350 km(2) were searched for tree frog calling males. Twenty-nine out of 111 ponds sheltered between 1 and 250 callers. Most ponds were occupied by less than 12 males. Pond parameters were measured at three different levels using field analysis and a Geographical Information System (GIS). The first level was water chemistry and pond-associated measures. The second level was the surrounding land use in a 30 m buffer around the pond. The third level consisted of landscape indices on a broader scale (up to 2 km). Logistic regression was applied to identify parameters that can predict the presence of calling males in a pond. Response variable was the presence or absence of callers. Four significant parameters allowed us to explain about 40% of the total deviance of the observed occupational pattern. Urbanization around the pond had a highly negative impact on the probability of presence of calling males. Hours of direct sunlight on the pond was positively correlated with callers. Higher water conductivity was associated with a lesser probability of species presence. Finally, the further the closest two-lane road, the higher the probability of callers presence. Our results show that presence or absence of callers is influenced by factors acting at various geographical scales.

Cartographier les géomorphosites : objectifs, publics et propositions méthodologiques

Related to the raise of the awareness of the importance of the Earth heritage, geomorphosites receive increasing attention from the scientific community. Assessment methods, classification and conservation strategies have been developed to safeguard the geomorphological heritage for present and future generations. On the other hand, Earth heritage offers opportunities to develop educational and recreational programs as well as tourism projects. Various interpretive supports and local development projects have been engendered in the past few years to promote geoheritage.¦Be it for the assessment, conservation or promotion of geomorphosites, maps are valuable from many standpoints. They can provide fundamental data for detailed geomorphosite description, serve as visual communication tools helping to guide the selection process in defining protection priority or supporting Earth heritage promotion and interpretàtion.¦This study reviews the main achievements and the objectives yet to be accomplished in the field of geomorphosite mapping and proposes a general framework for the mapping of geomorphosites that takes into account the different aims and publics. The main focus is on mapping geomorphosites for non-specialists in the field of Earth heritage promotion (Geotourism). In this context, maps are often employed to show itineraries or points of interest. Like a scheme or a diagram, a map can also be used as a method for visualising geoscientific information. This function is particularly important since some processes, which contributed to the formation of a geomorphosite or a geomorphological landscape are no longer or not always clearly visible in the landscape. In this case, maps become interpretive media that serve popularisation purposes.¦Mapping for non-specialists holds the challenging task to ensure the information transfer between the cartographer and the user. We therefore focus on both the implementation of the map by the cartographer (which information? which visualisation?) and the interpretation of the map by the user (effectiveness of the knowledge transfer). The research is based on empirical studies carried out in the Maderan valley (Canton of Uri) and in classes of the Cantons of Uri and Tessin that aim to gain knowledge about the familiarity and interests of non- specialists for geoheritage as well as about their map reading skills. The final objective is to formulate methodological proposals for geomorphosite mapping for interpretive purpose.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

First-generation linkage map for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea) with utility in congeneric species.

BACKGROUND: Western Palearctic tree frogs (Hyla arborea group) represent a strong potential for evolutionary and conservation genetic research, so far underexploited due to limited molecular resources. New microsatellite markers have recently been developed for Hyla arborea, with high cross-species utility across the entire circum-Mediterranean radiation. Here we conduct sibship analyses to map available markers for use in future population genetic applications. FINDINGS: We characterized eight linkage groups, including one sex-linked, all showing drastically reduced recombination in males compared to females, as previously documented in this species. Mapping of the new 15 markers to the ~200 My diverged Xenopus tropicalis genome suggests a generally conserved synteny with only one confirmed major chromosome rearrangement. CONCLUSIONS: The new microsatellites are representative of several chromosomes of H. arborea that are likely to be conserved across closely-related species. Our linkage map provides an important resource for genetic research in European Hylids, notably for studies of speciation, genome evolution and conservation.

Altitudinal variation in haemosporidian parasite distribution in great tit populations.

BACKGROUND: One of the major issues concerning disease ecology and conservation is knowledge of the factors that influence the distribution of parasites and consequently disease outbreaks. This study aimed to investigate avian haemosporidian composition and the distribution of these parasites in three altitudinally separated great tit (Parus major) populations in western Switzerland over a three-year period. The objectives were to determine the lineage diversity of parasites occuring across the study populations and to investigate whether altitudinal gradients govern the distribution of haemosporidian parasites by lineage. METHODS: In this study molecular approaches (PCR and sequencing) were used to detect avian blood parasites (Plasmodium sp., Haemoproteus sp. and Leucocytozoon sp.) in populations of adult great tits caught on their nests during three consecutive breeding seasons. RESULTS: High levels of parasite prevalence (88-96%) were found across all of the study populations with no significant altitude effect. Altitude did, however, govern the distribution of parasites belonging to different genera, with Plasmodium parasites being more prevalent at lower altitudes, Leucocytozoon parasites more at high altitude and Haemoproteus parasite prevalence increasing with altitude. A total of 27 haemosporidian parasite lineages were recorded across all study sites, with diversity showing a positive correlation to altitude. Parasites belonging to lineage SGS1 (P. relictum) and PARUS4 and PARUS19 (Leucocytozoon sp.) dominated lower altitudes. SW2 (P. polare) was the second most prevalent lineage of parasite detected overall and these parasites were responsible for 68% of infections at intermediate altitude, but were only documented at this one study site. CONCLUSIONS: Avian haemosporidian parasites are not homogeneously distributed across host populations, but differ by altitude. This difference is most probably brought about by environmental factors influencing vector prevalence and distribution. The high occurrence of co-infection by different genera of parasites might have pronounced effects on host fitness and should consequently be investigated more rigorously.

Recent advances in remote sensing image processing

Remote sensing image processing is nowadays a mature research area. The techniques developed in the field allow many real-life applications with great societal value. For instance, urban monitoring, fire detection or flood prediction can have a great impact on economical and environmental issues. To attain such objectives, the remote sensing community has turned into a multidisciplinary field of science that embraces physics, signal theory, computer science, electronics, and communications. From a machine learning and signal/image processing point of view, all the applications are tackled under specific formalisms, such as classification and clustering, regression and function approximation, image coding, restoration and enhancement, source unmixing, data fusion or feature selection and extraction. This paper serves as a survey of methods and applications, and reviews the last methodological advances in remote sensing image processing.

Coping with continuous human disturbance in the wild: insights from penguin heart rate response to various stressors.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: A central question for ecologists is the extent to which anthropogenic disturbances (e.g. tourism) might impact wildlife and affect the systems under study. From a research perspective, identifying the effects of human disturbance caused by research-related activities is crucial in order to understand and account for potential biases and derive appropriate conclusions from the data. RESULTS: Here, we document a case of biological adjustment to chronic human disturbance in a colonial seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), breeding on remote and protected islands of the Southern ocean. Using heart rate (HR) as a measure of the stress response, we show that, in a colony with areas exposed to the continuous presence of humans (including scientists) for over 50 years, penguins have adjusted to human disturbance and habituated to certain, but not all, types of stressors. When compared to birds breeding in relatively undisturbed areas, birds in areas of high chronic human disturbance were found to exhibit attenuated HR responses to acute anthropogenic stressors of low-intensity (i.e. sounds or human approaches) to which they had been subjected intensely over the years. However, such attenuation was not apparent for high-intensity stressors (i.e. captures for scientific research) which only a few individuals experience each year. CONCLUSIONS: Habituation to anthropogenic sounds/approaches could be an adaptation to deal with chronic innocuous stressors, and beneficial from a research perspective. Alternately, whether penguins have actually habituated to anthropogenic disturbances over time or whether human presence has driven the directional selection of human-tolerant phenotypes, remains an open question with profound ecological and conservation implications, and emphasizes the need for more knowledge on the effects of human disturbance on long-term studied populations.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Demogenetics in metapopulations

SUMMARY : Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Small and isolated populations suffer from increased stochasticity and from limited rescue effects. These two factors may be sufficient to cause local extinctions but fragmentation induces some genetic consequences that can also contribute significantly to extinction risks. Increased genetic drift reduces the effectiveness of selection against deleterious mutations, leading to their progressive accumulation. Drift also decreases both the standing genetic variation and the rate of fixation of beneficial mutations, limiting the evolutionary potential of isolated populations. Demography and genetics further interact and feed back on each other, progressively driving fragmented populations into "extinction vortices". The aim of the thesis was to better understand the processes occurring in fragmented populations. For this, I combined simulation studies and empirical data from three species that live in structured habitats. Chapter 1 and 2 investigate the demography of two shrew species in fragmented habitats. I showed that connectivity and habitat quality strongly affect the demography of the greater white-tooted shrew, although demographic stochasticity was extremely high. I also demonstrated that habitat fragmentation is one of the leading factors allowing the local coexistence of two competing shrew species. Chapter 3 and 4 focus on measuring connectivity in fragmented populations based on genetic data. In particular, I showed that genetic data can be used to detect the landscape elements impeding dispersal. In Chapter 5 that deals with the accumulation of deleterious mutations in fragmented populations, I demonstrated that mutation accumulation, as well a time to extinction, can be predicted from simple demographic and genetic measures. In the last two chapters, I monitored individual reproductive success in an isolated tree frogs population. These data allowed quantifying the effective population size, a measure closely linked to population evolutionary potential. To conclude, this thesis brings some new insights into the processes occurring in fragmented populations, and I hope it will contribute to the improvement of the management and conservation of fragmented populations.

Interacting populations in heterogeneous environments

To optimally manage a metapopulation, managers and conservation biologists can favor a type of habitat spatial distribution (e.g. aggregated or random). However, the spatial distribution that provides the highest habitat occupancy remains ambiguous and numerous contradictory results exist. Habitat occupancy depends on the balance between local extinction and colonization. Thus, the issue becomes even more puzzling when various forms of relationships - positive or negative co-variation - between local extinction and colonization rate within habitat types exist. Using an analytical model we demonstrate first that the habitat occupancy of a metapopulation is significantly affected by the presence of habitat types that display different extinction-colonization dynamics, considering: (i) variation in extinction or colonization rate and (ii) positive and negative co-variation between the two processes within habitat types. We consequently examine, with a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model, how different degrees of habitat aggregation affect occupancy predictions under similar scenarios. An aggregated distribution of habitat types provides the highest habitat occupancy when local extinction risk is spatially heterogeneous and high in some places, while a random distribution of habitat provides the highest habitat occupancy when colonization rates are high. Because spatial variability in local extinction rates always favors aggregation of habitats, we only need to know about spatial variability in colonization rates to determine whether aggregating habitat types increases, or not, metapopulation occupancy. From a comparison of the results obtained with the analytical and with the spatial-explicit stochastic simulation model we determine the conditions under which a simple metapopulation model closely matches the results of a more complex spatial simulation model with explicit heterogeneity.

Biological Flora of the British Isles: Ambrosia artemisiifolia

1. This account presents information on all aspects of the biology of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (Common ragweed) that are relevant to understanding its ecology. The main topics are presented within the standard framework of the Biological Flora of the British Isles: distribution, habitat, communities, responses to biotic factors, responses to environment, structure and physiology, phenology, floral and seed characters, herbivores and disease, history, and conservation, impacts and management. 2. Ambrosia artemisiifolia is a monoecious, wind-pollinated, annual herb native to North America whose height varies from 10 cm to 2.5 m according to environmental conditions. It has erect, branched stems and pinnately lobed leaves. Spike-like racemes of male capitula composed of staminate (male) florets terminate the stems, while cyme-like clusters of pistillate (female) florets are arranged in groups the axils of main and lateral stem leaves. 3. Seeds require prolonged chilling to break dormancy. Following seedling emergence in spring, the rate of vegetative growth depends on temperature, but development occurs over a wide thermal range. In temperate European climates, male and female flowers are produced from summer to early autumn (July to October). 4. Ambrosia artemisiifolia is sensitive to freezing. Late spring frosts kill seedlings and the first autumn frosts terminate the growing season. It has a preference for dry soils of intermediate to rich nutrient level. 5. Ambrosia artemisiifolia was introduced into Europe with seed imports from North America in the 19th century. Since World War II, it has become widespread in temperate regions of Europe and is now abundant in open, disturbed habitats as a ruderal and agricultural weed. 6. Recently, the N. American ragweed leaf beetle (Ophraella communa) has been detected in southern Switzerland and northern Italy. This species appears to have the capacity to substantially reduce growth and seed production of A. artemisiifolia. 7. In heavily infested regions of Europe, A. artemisiifolia causes substantial crop-yield losses and its copious, highly allergenic pollen creates considerable public health problems. There is consensus among models that climate change will allow its northward and up-hill spread in Europe.

The Swiss reform of the allocation of tasks : The conventions-programs as a new partnership model for vertical cooperation ?

This research examines the impacts of the Swiss reform of the allocation of tasks which was accepted in 2004 and implemented in 2008 to "re-assign" the responsibilities between the federal government and the cantons. The public tasks were redistributed, according to the leading and fundamental principle of subsidiarity. Seven tasks came under exclusive federal responsibility; ten came under the control of the cantons; and twenty-two "common tasks" were allocated to both the Confederation and the cantons. For these common tasks it wasn't possible to separate the management and the implementation. In order to deal with nineteen of them, the reform introduced the conventions-programs (CPs), which are public law contracts signed by the Confederation with each canton. These CPs are generally valid for periods of four years (2008-11, 2012-15 and 2016-19, respectively). The third period is currently being prepared. By using the principal-agent theory I examine how contracts can improve political relations between a principal (Confederation) and an agent (canton). I also provide a first qualitative analysis by examining the impacts of these contracts on the vertical cooperation and on the implication of different actors by focusing my study on five CPs - protection of cultural heritage and conservation of historic monuments, encouragement of the integration of foreigners, economic development, protection against noise and protection of the nature and landscape - applied in five cantons, which represents twenty-five cases studies.