Plutonium from above-ground nuclear tests in milk teeth: investigation of placental transfer in children born between 1951 and 1995 in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Occupational risks, the present nuclear threat, and the potential danger associated with nuclear power have raised concerns regarding the metabolism of plutonium in pregnant women. OBJECTIVE: We measured plutonium levels in the milk teeth of children born between 1951 and 1995 to assess the potential risk that plutonium incorporated by pregnant women might pose to the radiosensitive tissues of the fetus through placenta transfer. METHODS: We used milk teeth, whose enamel is formed during pregnancy, to investigate the transfer of plutonium from the mother's blood plasma to the fetus. We measured plutonium using sensitive sector field inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry techniques. We compared our results with those of a previous study on strontium-90 ((90)Sr) released into the atmosphere after nuclear bomb tests. RESULTS: Results show that plutonium activity peaks in the milk teeth of children born about 10 years before the highest recorded levels of plutonium fallout. By contrast, (90)Sr, which is known to cross the placenta barrier, manifests differently in milk teeth, in accordance with (90)Sr fallout deposition as a function of time. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that plutonium found in milk teeth is caused by fallout that was inhaled around the time the milk teeth were shed and not from any accumulation during pregnancy through placenta transfer. Thus, plutonium may not represent a radiologic risk for the radiosensitive tissues of the fetus.

Forecasting nano law: defining nano

Law and science have partnered together in the recent past to solve major public health issues, ranging from asbestos to averting the threat of a nuclear holocaust. This paper travels to a legal and health policy frontier where no one has gone before, examining the role of precautionary principles under international law as a matter of codified international jurisprudence by examining draft terminology from prominent sources including the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (UK), the Swiss Confederation, the USA (NIOSH) and the OECD. The research questions addressed are how can the benefits of nanotechnology be realized, while minimizing the risk of harm? What law, if any, applies to protect consumers (who comprise the general public, nanotechnology workers and their corporate social partners) and other stakeholders within civil society from liability? What law, if any, applies to prevent harm?

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

In-vitro cell exposure studies for the assessment of nanoparticle toxicity in the lung: a dialog between aerosol science and biology

The introduction of engineered nanostructured materials into a rapidly increasing number of industrial and consumer products will result in enhanced exposure to engineered nanoparticles. Workplace exposure has been identified as the most likely source of uncontrolled inhalation of engineered aerosolized nanoparticles, but release of engineered nanoparticles may occur at any stage of the lifecycle of (consumer) products. The dynamic development of nanomaterials with possibly unknown toxicological effects poses a challenge for the assessment of nanoparticle induced toxicity and safety.In this consensus document from a workshop on in-vitro cell systems for nanoparticle toxicity testing11Workshop on 'In-Vitro Exposure Studies for Toxicity Testing of Engineered Nanoparticles' sponsored by the Association for Aerosol Research (GAeF), 5-6 September 2009, Karlsruhe, Germany. an overview is given of the main issues concerning exposure to airborne nanoparticles, lung physiology, biological mechanisms of (adverse) action, in-vitro cell exposure systems, realistic tissue doses, risk assessment and social aspects of nanotechnology. The workshop participants recognized the large potential of in-vitro cell exposure systems for reliable, high-throughput screening of nanoparticle toxicity. For the investigation of lung toxicity, a strong preference was expressed for air-liquid interface (ALI) cell exposure systems (rather than submerged cell exposure systems) as they more closely resemble in-vivo conditions in the lungs and they allow for unaltered and dosimetrically accurate delivery of aerosolized nanoparticles to the cells. An important aspect, which is frequently overlooked, is the comparison of typically used in-vitro dose levels with realistic in-vivo nanoparticle doses in the lung. If we consider average ambient urban exposure and occupational exposure at 5mg/m3 (maximum level allowed by Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)) as the boundaries of human exposure, the corresponding upper-limit range of nanoparticle flux delivered to the lung tissue is 3×10-5-5×10-3μg/h/cm2 of lung tissue and 2-300particles/h/(epithelial) cell. This range can be easily matched and even exceeded by almost all currently available cell exposure systems.The consensus statement includes a set of recommendations for conducting in-vitro cell exposure studies with pulmonary cell systems and identifies urgent needs for future development. As these issues are crucial for the introduction of safe nanomaterials into the marketplace and the living environment, they deserve more attention and more interaction between biologists and aerosol scientists. The members of the workshop believe that further advances in in-vitro cell exposure studies would be greatly facilitated by a more active role of the aerosol scientists. The technical know-how for developing and running ALI in-vitro exposure systems is available in the aerosol community and at the same time biologists/toxicologists are required for proper assessment of the biological impact of nanoparticles.

Current standards and progress in understanding and treatment of GIST.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GIST), despite being rare, pose a relevant medical problem from the viewpoint of diagnosis and management. GIST are fragile, liable to metastasize and often located in delicate structures. Surgical options, therefore, are limited. In the last decade an improved understanding of the molecular mechanisms of the disease has resulted in novel modes of treatment. The introduction of systemic tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy with imatinib has significantly improved the outcome of the disease and prolonged the survival of GIST patients. For many patients the acute threat of a deadly cancer has been transformed into a manageable chronic condition. Drug safety, tolerability and compliance, subjects of concern in all long-term therapies, have proven to be acceptable for the tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib. The present paper provides a compact overview of the epidemiology, pathophysiology and morphology of GIST, with special reference to the underlying molecular biology. Relevant aspects of diagnosis, therapy and monitoring of the disease are reviewed with particular emphasis on the available clinical evidence and recent guidelines.

Catastrophic medical expenditure risk

Medical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section data containing information on the means of financing health payments. We estimate medical expenditure risk in seven Asian countries and find it is highest in Laos and China, and is lowest in Malaysia. Exposure to risk is generally higher for households that have less recourse to self-insurance, lower incomes, wealth and education, and suffer from chronic illness.

Discorso e terrorismo: la rappresentazione degli arabi nella stampa italiana e internazionale dopo l'11 settembre 2001

In everyday debates on topics such as cultural differences, it seems relevant to analyze not only institutional conversations or speeches, but also mass-media communications. The way the media portray social events contributes to the construction of our categories of explanation of the world. The main purpose of this research is to analyze the representations of the Arabs before and after September 11, 2001 in the Italian and U.S. press. Results show that in Italy articles mainly focus on contrasting illegal immigration and on the consequent political and legislative decisions. Instead, U.S. press is focused on enhancing the sense of ingroup belonging, relying on the sense of threat of the Arabs to Western culture.

Who we are and who can join us: National identity content and entry criteria for new immigrants

We argue that attitudes about immigration can be better understood by paying closer attention to the various ways in which national group boundaries are demarcated. We describe two related lines of work that address this. The first deals with national group definitions and, based on evidence from studies carried out in England and analyses of international survey data, argues that the relationship between national identification and prejudice toward immigrants is contingent on the extent to which ethnic or civic definitions of nationality are endorsed. The second, which uses European survey data, examines support for ascribed and acquired criteria that can be applied when determining who is permitted to migrate to one's country, and the various forms of national and individual threat that affect support for these criteria. We explain how the research benefits from a multilevel approach and also suggest how these findings relate to some current policy debates.

Social evolution and defences against pathogens in ants

Pathogens represent a threat to all organisms, which generates a coevolutionary arms race. Social insects provide an interesting system to study host-pathogen interactions, because their defences depend on both the individual and collective responses, and involve genetic, physiological, behavioral and organizational mechanisms. In this thesis, I studied the evolutionary ecology of the resistance of ant queens and workers to natural fungal pathogens. Mechanisms that increase within-colony genetic diversity, like polyandry and polygyny, decrease relatedness among colony mates, which reduces the strength of selection for the evolution and maintenance of altruistic behavior. A leading hypothesis posits that intracolonial genetic diversity is adaptive because it reduces the risk of pathogen transmission. In chapter 1, I examine individual resistance in ant workers of Formica selysi, a species that shows natural variation in colony queen number. I discuss how this variation might be beneficial to resist natural fungal pathogens in groups. Overall my results indicate that there is genetic variation for fungal resistance in workers, a requirement for the 'genetic diversity for pathogen resistance' hypothesis. However I was not able to detect direct evidence that group diversity improves the survival of focal ants or reduces pathogen transmission. Thus, although the coexistence of multiple queens increases the within-colony variance in worker resistance, it remains unclear whether it protects ant colonies from pathogens and whether it is comparable to polyandry in other social insects. Traditionally, it was thought that the immune system of invertebrates lacked memory and specificity. In chapter 2, I investigate individual immunity in ant queens and show that they may be able to adjust their pathogen defences in response to their current environment by means of immune priming, which bears similarities with the adaptive immunity of vertebrates. However, my results indicate that the expression of immune priming in ant queens may be influenced by factors like mating status, mating conditions or host species. In addition, I showed that mating increases pathogen resistance in çhe two ant species that I studied (F. selysi and Lasius niger). This raises the question of how ant queens invest heavily in both maintenance and reproduction, which I discuss in the context of the evolution of social organization. In chapter 3,1 investigate if transgenerational priming against a fungal pathogen protects the queen progeny. I failed to detect this effect, and discuss why the detection of transgenerational immune priming in ants is a difficult task. Overall, this thesis illustrates some of the individual and collective mechanisms that likely played a role in allowing ants to become one of the most diverse and ecologically successful groups of organisms. -- Les pathogènes représentent une menace pour tous les organismes, ce qui a engendré l'évolution d'une course aux armements. Les insectes sociaux sont un système intéressant permettant d'étudier les interactions hôtes-pathogènes, car leurs défenses dépendent de réponses aussi bien individuelles que collectives, et impliquent des mécanismes génétiques, physiologiques, comportementaux et organisationnels. Dans cette thèse, j'ai étudié l'écologie évolutive de la résistance des reines et des ouvrières de fourmis exposées à des champignons pathogènes. Les facteurs augmentant la diversité génétique à l'intérieur de la colonie, comme la polyandrie et la polygynie, diminuent la parenté, ce qui réduit la pression de sélection pour l'évolution et la maintenance des comportements altruistes. Une hypothèse dominante stipule que la diversité génétique à l'intérieur de la colonie est adaptative car elle réduit le risque de transmission des pathogènes. Dans le chapitre 1, nous examinons la résistance individuelle à des pathogènes fongiques chez les ouvrières de Formica selysi, une espèce présentant une variation naturelle dans le nombre de reines par colonie. Nous discutons aussi de la possibilité que ces variations individuelles augmentent la capacité du groupe à résister à des champignons pathogènes. Dans l'ensemble, nos résultats indiquent une variation génétique dans la résistance aux champignons chez les ouvrières, un prérequis à l'hypothèse que la diversité génétique du groupe augmente la résistance aux pathogènes. Cependant, nous n'avons pas pu détecter une preuve directe que la diversité du groupe augmente la survie de fourmis focales ou réduise la transmission des pathogènes. Ainsi, bien que la coexistence de plusieurs reines augmente la variance dans la résistance des ouvrières à l'intérieur de la colonie, la question de savoir si cela protège les colonies de fourmis contre les pathogènes et si cela est comparable à la polyandrie chez d'autres insectes sociaux reste ouverte. Traditionnellement, il était admis que le système immunitaire des invertébrés ne possédait pas de mémoire et était non-spécifique. Dans le chapitre 2, nous avons étudié l'immunité individuelle chez des reines de fourmis. Nous avons montré que les reines pourraient être capables d'ajuster leurs défenses contre les pathogènes en réponse à leur environnement, grâce à une pré-activation du système immunitaire (« immune priming ») ressemblant à l'immunité adaptative des vertébrés. Cependant, nos résultats indiquent que cette pré-activation du système immunitaire chez les reines dépend du fait d'être accouplée ou non, des conditions d'accouplement, ou de l'espèce. De plus, nous avons montré que l'accouplement augmente la résistance aux pathogènes chez les deux espèces que nous avons étudié (F. selysi et Lasius niger). Ceci pose la question de la capacité des reines à investir fortement aussi bien dans la maintenance que dans la reproduction, ce que nous discutons dans le contexte de l'évolution de l'organisation sociale. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions si la pré-activation trans-générationelle du système immunitaire [« trans-generational immune priming ») protège la progéniture de la reine contre un champignon pathogène. Nous n'avons par réussi à détecter cet effet, et discutons des raisons pour lesquelles la détection de la pré-activation trans-générationelle du système immunitaire chez les fourmis est une tâche difficile. Dans l'ensemble, cette thèse illustre quelques-uns des mécanismes individuels et collectifs qui ont probablement contribué à la diversité et à l'important succès écologique des fourmis.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant biodiversity : from species to communities

Understanding the distribution and composition of species assemblages and being able to predict them in space and time are highly important tasks io investigate the fate of biodiversity in the current global changes context. Species distribution models are tools that have proven useful to predict the potential distribution of species by relating their occurrences to environmental variables. Species assemblages can then be predicted by combining the prediction of individual species models. In the first part of my thesis, I tested the importance of new environmental predictors to improve species distribution prediction. I showed that edaphic variables, above all soil pH and nitrogen content could be important in species distribution models. In a second chapter, I tested the influence of different resolution of predictors on the predictive ability of species distribution models. I showed that fine resolution predictors could ameliorate the models for some species by giving a better estimation of the micro-topographic condition that species tolerate, but that fine resolution predictors for climatic factors still need to be ameliorated. The second goal of my thesis was to test the ability of empirical models to predict species assemblages' characteristics such as species richness or functional attributes. I showed that species richness could be modelled efficiently and that the resulting prediction gave a more realistic estimate of the number of species than when obtaining it by stacking outputs of single species distribution models. Regarding the prediction of functional characteristics (plant height, leaf surface, seed mass) of plant assemblages, mean and extreme values of functional traits were better predictable than indices reflecting the diversity of traits in the community. This approach proved interesting to understand which environmental conditions influence particular aspects of the vegetation functioning. It could also be useful to predict climate change impacts on the vegetation. In the last part of my thesis, I studied the capacity of stacked species distribution models to predict the plant assemblages. I showed that this method tended to over-predict the number of species and that the composition of the community was not predicted exactly either. Finally, I combined the results of macro- ecological models obtained in the preceding chapters with stacked species distribution models and showed that this approach reduced significantly the number of species predicted and that the prediction of the composition is also ameliorated in some cases. These results showed that this method is promising. It needs now to be tested on further data sets. - Comprendre la manière dont les plantes se répartissent dans l'environnement et s'organisent en communauté est une question primordiale dans le contexte actuel de changements globaux. Cette connaissance peut nous aider à sauvegarder la diversité des espèces et les écosystèmes. Des méthodes statistiques nous permettent de prédire la distribution des espèces de plantes dans l'espace géographique et dans le temps. Ces modèles de distribution d'espèces, relient les occurrences d'une espèce avec des variables environnementales pour décrire sa distribution potentielle. Cette méthode a fait ses preuves pour ce qui est de la prédiction d'espèces individuelles. Plus récemment plusieurs tentatives de cumul de modèles d'espèces individuelles ont été réalisées afin de prédire la composition des communautés végétales. Le premier objectif de mon travail est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution en testant l'importance de nouvelles variables prédictives. Parmi différentes variables édaphiques, le pH et la teneur en azote du sol se sont avérés des facteurs non négligeables pour prédire la distribution des plantes. Je démontre aussi dans un second chapitre que les prédicteurs environnementaux à fine résolution permettent de refléter les conditions micro-topographiques subies par les plantes mais qu'ils doivent encore être améliorés avant de pouvoir être employés de manière efficace dans les modèles. Le deuxième objectif de ce travail consistait à étudier le développement de modèles prédictifs pour des attributs des communautés végétales tels que, par exemple, la richesse en espèces rencontrée à chaque point. Je démontre qu'il est possible de prédire par ce biais des valeurs de richesse spécifiques plus réalistes qu'en sommant les prédictions obtenues précédemment pour des espèces individuelles. J'ai également prédit dans l'espace et dans le temps des caractéristiques de la végétation telles que sa hauteur moyenne, minimale et maximale. Cette approche peut être utile pour comprendre quels facteurs environnementaux promeuvent différents types de végétation ainsi que pour évaluer les changements à attendre au niveau de la végétation dans le futur sous différents régimes de changements climatiques. Dans une troisième partie de ma thèse, j'ai exploré la possibilité de prédire les assemblages de plantes premièrement en cumulant les prédictions obtenues à partir de modèles individuels pour chaque espèce. Cette méthode a le défaut de prédire trop d'espèces par rapport à ce qui est observé en réalité. J'ai finalement employé le modèle de richesse en espèce développé précédemment pour contraindre les résultats du modèle d'assemblage de plantes. Cela a permis l'amélioration des modèles en réduisant la sur-prédiction et en améliorant la prédiction de la composition en espèces. Cette méthode semble prometteuse mais de nouveaux tests sont nécessaires pour bien évaluer ses capacités.

Organisation des secours extrahospitaliers lors du sommet 2003 du G8: nouveau concept de poste médical mobile (PMM) [Prehospital medical care organization during the 2003 G8 summit: a new concept of Mobile Medical Squadrons (MMS)].

OBJECTIVE: The occurrence of the 2003 G8 summit in Evian and the threat of major civil riots or even terrorist attacks in the Swiss neighbourhood forced us to imagine a new system of rescue and medical care in case of numerous victims. Previous occurrences of the G8 in Europe or America have demonstrated the need of flexible and mobile structures, able to respond quickly to crowd movements, unlike the usual static structure of rescue systems designed for major accidents. METHODS: We developed a new concept of Mobile Medical Squadrons (MMS) consisting of several vehicles and medical care and rescue human resources. In our concept, each MMS consisted of 3 emergency doctors, 5 paramedics and 9 first-aid workers. They were designed to handle 15 patients, with a large autonomy in terms of rescue, medical care, evacuation and medical authority. The equipment included medical, resuscitation, simple decontamination, evacuation and communication materials. RESULTS: The MMS were dispatched four times during the G8 summit following civil riots. They took care of 12 injured patients. CONCLUSION: The concept of MMS as a reinforcement of the existing rescue and health care resources appears as a new flexible, a modular and useful concept for the medical management of collective prehospital emergency situations. Its use is suggested instead of the traditional static concept of rescue systems designed for major accidents.

Safety-seeking behaviours and verbal auditory hallucinations in schizophrenia.

Verbal auditory hallucinations can have a strong impact on the social and professional functioning of individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia. The safety-seeking behaviours used to reduce the threat associated with voices play a significant role in explaining the functional consequences of auditory hallucinations. Nevertheless, these safety-seeking behaviours have been little studied. Twenty-eight patients with schizophrenia and verbal auditory hallucinations were recruited for this study. Hallucinations were evaluated using the Psychotic Symptom Rating Scale and the Belief About Voice Questionnaire and safety behaviours using a modified version of the Safety Behaviour Questionnaire. Our results show that the vast majority of patients relies on safety behaviours to reduce the threat associated with voices. This reliance on safety behaviours is mostly explained by beliefs about origin of voices the omnipotence attributed to hallucinations and the behavioural and emotional reactions to the voices. Safety-seeking behaviours play an important role in maintaining dysfunctional beliefs with respect to voices. They should be better targeted within the cognitive and behavioural therapies for auditory hallucinations.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Mass detection on mammograms: influence of signal shape uncertainty on human and model observers.

We studied the influence of signal variability on human and model observers for detection tasks with realistic simulated masses superimposed on real patient mammographic backgrounds and synthesized mammographic backgrounds (clustered lumpy backgrounds, CLB). Results under the signal-known-exactly (SKE) paradigm were compared with signal-known-statistically (SKS) tasks for which the observers did not have prior knowledge of the shape or size of the signal. Human observers' performance did not vary significantly when benign masses were superimposed on real images or on CLB. Uncertainty and variability in signal shape did not degrade human performance significantly compared with the SKE task, while variability in signal size did. Implementation of appropriate internal noise components allowed the fit of model observers to human performance.

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.