Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Somewhere between illusion of control and powerlessness : trying to situate the pathological gambler's locus of control

It has been suggested that pathological gamblers develop illusory perceptions of control regarding the outcome of the games and should express higher Internal and Chance locus of control. A sample of 48 outpatients diagnosed with pathological gambling disorder who participated in this ex post facto study, completed the Internality, Powerful Others, and Chance scale, the South Oaks Gambling Screen questionnaire, and the Beck Depression Inventory. Results for the locus of control measure were compared with a reference group. Pathological gamblers scored higher than the reference group on the Chance locus of control, which increased with the severity of cases. Moreover, Internal locus of control did show a curvilinear relationship with the severity of cases. Pathological gamblers have specific locus of control scores that vary in function of the severity, in a linear fashion or a non-linear fashion according to the scale. This effect might be caused by competition between "illusion of control" and the tendency to attribute adverse consequence of gambling to external causes.

The database search problem: a question of rational decision making

This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study.

In vivo assessment of use-dependent brain plasticity--beyond the "one trick pony" imaging strategy.

This article has been written as a comment to Dr Thomas and Dr Baker's article "Teaching an adult brain new tricks: A critical review of evidence for training-dependent structural plasticity in humans". We deliberately expand on the key question about the biological substrates underlying use-dependent brain plasticity rather than reiterating the authors' main points of criticism already addressed in more general way by previous publications in the field. The focus here is on the following main issues: i) controversial brain plasticity findings in voxel-based morphometry studies are partially due to the strong dependency of the widely used T1-weighted imaging protocol on varying magnetic resonance contrast contributions; ii) novel concepts in statistical analysis allow one to directly infer topological specificity of structural brain changes associated with plasticity. We conclude that iii) voxel-based quantification of relaxometry derived parameter maps could provide a new perspective on use-dependent plasticity by characterisation of brain tissue property changes beyond the estimation of volume and cortical thickness changes. In the relevant sections we respond to the concerns raised by Dr Thomas and Dr Baker from the perspective of the proposed data acquisition and analysis strategy.

Genetic selection system allowing monitoring of myofibrillogenesis in living cardiomyocytes derived from mouse embryonic stem cells

Embryonic stem (ES) cell-derived cardiomyocytes recapitulate cardiomyogenesis in vitro and are a potential source of cells for cardiac repair. However, this requires enrichment of mixed populations of differentiating ES cells into cardiomyocytes. Toward this goal, we have generated bicistronic vectors that express both the blasticidin S deaminase (bsd) gene and a fusion protein consisting of either myosin light chain (MLC)-3f or human alpha-actinin 2A and enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) under the transcriptional control of the alpha-cardiac myosin heavy chain (alpha-MHC) promoter. Insertion of the DNase I-hypersensitive site (HS)-2 element from the beta-globin locus control region, which has been shown to reduce transgene silencing in other cell systems, upstream of the transgene promoter enhanced MLC3f-EGFP gene expression levels in mouse ES cell lines. The alpha-MHC-alpha-actinin-EGFP, but not the alpha-MHC-MLC3f-EGFP, construct resulted in the correct incorporation of the newly synthesized fusion protein at the Z-band of the sarcomeres in ES cell-derived cardiomyocytes. Exposure of embryoid bodies to blasticidin S selected for a relatively pure population of cardiomyocytes within 3 days. Myofibrillogenesis could be monitored by fluorescence microscopy in living cells due to sarcomeric epitope tagging. Therefore, this genetic system permits the rapid selection of a relatively pure population of developing cardiomyocytes from a heterogeneous population of differentiating ES cells, simultaneously allowing monitoring of early myofibrillogenesis in the selected myocytes

Practice guidelines for evaluation of Fever in returning travelers and migrants.

BACKGROUND: Fever upon return from tropical or subtropical regions can be caused by diseases that are rapidly fatal if left untreated. The differential diagnosis is wide. Physicians often lack the necessary knowledge to appropriately take care of such patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop practice guidelines for the initial evaluation of patients presenting with fever upon return from a tropical or subtropical country in order to reduce delays and potential fatal outcomes and to improve knowledge of physicians. TARGET AUDIENCE: Medical personnel, usually physicians, who see the returning patients, primarily in an ambulatory setting or in an emergency department of a hospital and specialists in internal medicine, infectious diseases, and travel medicine. METHOD: A systematic review of the literature--mainly extracted from the National Library of Medicine database--was performed between May 2000 and April 2001, using the keywords fever and/or travel and/or migrant and/or guidelines. Eventually, 250 articles were reviewed. The relevant elements of evidence were used in combination with expert knowledge to construct an algorithm with arborescence flagging the level of specialization required to deal with each situation. The proposed diagnoses and treatment plans are restricted to tropical or subtropical diseases (nonautochthonous diseases). The decision chart is accompanied with a detailed document that provides for each level of the tree the degree of evidence and the grade of recommendation as well as the key points of debate. PARTICIPANTS AND CONSENSUS PROCESS: Besides the 4 authors (2 specialists in travel/tropical medicine, 1 clinical epidemiologist, and 1 resident physician), a panel of 11 European physicians with different levels of expertise on travel medicine reviewed the guidelines. Thereafter, each point of the proposed recommendations was discussed with 15 experts in travel/tropical medicine from various continents. A final version was produced and submitted for evaluation to all participants. CONCLUSION: Although the quality of evidence was limited by the paucity of clinical studies, these guidelines established with the support of a large and highly experienced panel should help physicians to deal with patients coming back from the Tropics with fever.

Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals.

Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals.

Assimilation des expériences problématiques: une étude de cas de psychothérapie psychodynamique limitée dans le temps [Assimilation of problematic experiences: a case study on short-term dynamic psychotherapy].

The assimilation model is a qualitative and integrative approach that enables to study change processes that occur in psychotherapy. According to Stiles, this model conceives the individual's personality as constituent of different voices; the concept of voice is used to describe traces left by past experiences. During the psychotherapy, we can observe the progressive integration of the problematic voices into the patient's personality. We applied the assimilation model to a 34-session-long case of an effective short-term dynamic psychotherapy. We've chosen eight sessions we transcribed and analyzed by establishing points of contact between the case and the theory. The results are presented and discussed in terms of the evolution of the main voices in the patient.

Biomechanical stability of a posterior-alone fixation technique after craniovertebral junction realignment.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the current study was to investigate the biomechanical stability and fixation strength provided by a posterior approach reconstruction technique to realign the craniovertebral junction.¦METHODS: We tested seven human cadaver occipito-cervical spines (occiput-C4) by applying pure moments of ±1.5 Nm on a spine tester. Each specimen was tested in the following modes: 1) intact; 2) injured; 3) spacers alone at C1-C2 articulation (S); 4) spacers plus C1-C2 Posterior Instrumentation (S+PI); and 5) spacers plus C1-C2 posterior instrumentation plus midline wiring (S+PI+MLW). C1-C2 range of motion for each construct was obtained in flexion-extension, lateral bending, and axial rotation.¦RESULTS: In all the loading modes, S, S+PI, and S+PI+MLW constructs significantly reduced range of motion compared with the intact and injured condition (P < 0.05). There was no statistical difference between any of the three instrumentation constructs (P > 0.05).¦CONCLUSIONS: This study investigated the biomechanics of the posterior approach technique for realignment of the craniovertebral junction and also made comparisons with additional posterior fixations. The stand-alone spacers were stable in all three loading modes. Posterior instrumentation increased the stability as compared to stand-alone spacers. The third point of fixation, carried out by using midline wiring, increased the stability further. However, there was not much difference in the stability imparted with the midline wiring versus without. The present study highlights the biomechanics of this novel concept and reaffirms the view that distraction of the C1-C2 articular facets and direct articular joint atlantoaxial fixation would be an ideal method of management of basilar invagination.

Commentary : beyond vague causal effect estimation of obesity on health outcomes

In the current issue of epidemiology, Danaei and colleagues elegantly estimated both the direct effect and the indirect effect-that is, the effect mediated by blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, fibrinogen, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein-of body mass index (BMI) on the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). they analyzed data from 9 cohort studies including 58,322 patients and 9459 CHD events, with baseline measurements between 1954 and 2001. Using sophisticated and cutting-edge methods for direct and indirect effect estimations, the authors estimated that half of the risk of overweight and obesity would be mediated by blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose. Few additional percentage points of the risk would be mediated by fibrinogen and hs-CRP. How should we understand these estimates? Can we say that if obese persons reduce their body weight and reach a normal body weight, their excess risk of CHD would be reduced by half through an improvement in these mediators and by half through the reduction in BmI itself? Is that also true if these individuals are prevented from becoming obese in the first place? Can we also conclude that if these mediators are well controlled in obese individuals through other means than a body weight reduction, their excess risk of CHD would be reduced by half? Let us confront these estimates with observations from studies evaluating 2 interventions to reduce body weight, that is, bariatric surgery in patients with severe obesity and intensive lifestyle intervention in overweight patients with diabetes

Research resource: the dynamic transcriptional profile of sertoli cells during the progression of spermatogenesis.

Sertoli cells (SCs), the only somatic cells within seminiferous tubules, associate intimately with developing germ cells. They not only provide physical and nutritional support but also secrete factors essential to the complex developmental processes of germ cell proliferation and differentiation. The SC transcriptome must therefore adapt rapidly during the different stages of spermatogenesis. We report comprehensive genome-wide expression profiles of pure populations of SCs isolated at 5 distinct stages of the first wave of mouse spermatogenesis, using RNA sequencing technology. We were able to reconstruct about 13 901 high-confidence, nonredundant coding and noncoding transcripts, characterized by complex alternative splicing patterns with more than 45% comprising novel isoforms of known genes. Interestingly, roughly one-fifth (2939) of these genes exhibited a dynamic expression profile reflecting the evolving role of SCs during the progression of spermatogenesis, with stage-specific expression of genes involved in biological processes such as cell cycle regulation, metabolism and energy production, retinoic acid synthesis, and blood-testis barrier biogenesis. Finally, regulatory network analysis identified the transcription factors endothelial PAS domain-containing protein 1 (EPAS1/Hif2α), aryl hydrocarbon receptor nuclear translocator (ARNT/Hif1β), and signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 (STAT1) as potential master regulators driving the SC transcriptional program. Our results highlight the plastic transcriptional landscape of SCs during the progression of spermatogenesis and provide valuable resources to better understand SC function and spermatogenesis and its related disorders, such as male infertility.

Use of the Flixene vascular access graft as an early cannulation solution.

OBJECTIVE: The primary end points of this study were safety and efficacy of early cannulation of the Flixene graft (Maquet-Atrium Medical, Hudson, NH). Secondary end points were complications and patency. METHODS: This is a prospective single-center nonrandomized study. Study data included patient characteristics; history of vascular access; operative technique; interval between implantation and initial cannulation; complications; and patency at 1 month, 3 months, and every 6 months. Patency rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Between January 2011 and September 2013, a total of 46 Flixene grafts were implanted in 44 patients (27 men) with a mean age of 63 years. The implantation site was the upper arm in 67% of cases, the forearm in 11%, and the thigh in 22%. Seven grafts were never cannulated during the study period. Of the remaining 39 grafts, 32 (82%) were successfully cannulated within the first week after implantation, including 16 (41%) on the first day. The median interval from implantation to initial cannulation was 2 days (interquartile range, 1-3 days). The median follow-up was 223.5 days (interquartile range, 97-600 days). Five hematomas occurred, but only one required surgical revision. Primary assisted and secondary patency rates were 65% and 86%, respectively, at 6 months and 56% and 86%, respectively, at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that cannulation of the Flixene graft within 1 week after implantation is safe and effective. Early cannulation avoids or shortens the need for a temporary catheter. One-year patency rates appeared to be comparable to those achieved with conventional grafts, but long-term follow-up and randomized controlled studies will be needed to confirm this finding.

The Measurement Invariance of Schizotypy in Europe

The short version of the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences (sO-LIFE) is a widely used measure assessing schizotypy. There is limited information, however, on how sO-LIFE scores compare across different countries. The main goal of the present study is to test the measurement invariance of the sO-LIFE scores in a large sample of non-clinical adolescents and young adults from four European countries (UK, Switzerland, Italy, and Spain). The scores were obtained from validated versions of the sO-LIFE in their respective languages. The sample comprised 4190 participants (M = 20.87 years; SD = 3.71 years). The study of the internal structure, using confirmatory factor analysis, revealed that both three (i.e., positive schizotypy, cognitive disorganisation, and introvertive anhedonia) and four-factor (i.e., positive schizotypy, cognitive disorganisation, introvertive anhedonia, and impulsive nonconformity) models fitted the data moderately well. Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis showed that the three-factor model had partial strong measurement invariance across countries. Eight items were non-invariant across samples. Significant statistical differences in the mean scores of the s-OLIFE were found by country. Reliability scores, estimated with Ordinal alpha ranged from 0.75 to 0.87. Using the Item Response Theory framework, the sO-LIFE provides more accuracy information at the medium and high end of the latent trait. The current results show further evidence in support of the psychometric proprieties of the sO-LIFE, provide new information about the cross-cultural equivalence of schizotypy and support the use of this measure to screen for psychotic-like features and liability to psychosis in general population samples from different European countries.

Making SENSE - Sustained Effort Network for treatment of Status Epilepticus as a multicenter prospective registry.

BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding the different treatment options of status epilepticus (SE) in adults is scarce. Large randomized trials cover only one treatment at early stage and suggest the superiority of benzodiazepines over placebo, of intravenous lorazepam over intravenous diazepam or over intravenous phenytoin alone, and of intramuscular midazolam over intravenous lorazepam. However, many patients will not be treated successfully with the first treatment step. A large randomized trial covering the treatment of established status (ESETT) has just been funded recently by the NIH and will not start before 2015, with expected results in 2018; a trial on the treatment of refractory status with general anesthetics was terminated early due to insufficient recruitment. Therefore, a prospective multicenter observational registry was set up; this may help in clinical decision-making until results from randomized trials are available. METHODS/DESIGN: SENSE is a prospective, multicenter registry for patients treated for SE. The primary objective is to document patient characteristics, treatment modalities and in-house outcome of consecutive adults admitted for SE treatment in each of the participating centres and to identify predictors of outcome. Pre-treatment, treatment-related and outcome variables are documented systematically. To allow for meaningful multivariate analysis in the patient subgroups with refractory SE, a cohort size of 1000 patients is targeted. DISCUSSION: The results of the study will provide information about risks and benefits of specific treatment steps in different patient groups with SE at different points of time. Thus, it will support clinical decision-making and, furthermore, it will be helpful in the planning of treatment trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: DRKS00000725.