Forgoing dental care for economic reasons in Switzerland: a six-year cross-sectional population-based study

BACKGROUND: While oral health is part of general health and well-being, oral health disparities nevertheless persist. Potential mechanisms include socioeconomic factors that may influence access to dental care in the absence of universal dental care insurance coverage. We investigated the evolution, prevalence and determinants (including socioeconomic) of forgoing of dental care for economic reasons in a Swiss region, over the course of six years. METHODS: Repeated population-based surveys (2007-2012) of a representative sample of the adult population of the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. Forgone dental care, socioeconomic and insurance status, marital status, and presence of dependent children were assessed using standardized methods. RESULTS: A total of 4313 subjects were included, 10.6% (457/4313) of whom reported having forgone dental care for economic reasons in the previous 12 months. The crude percentage varied from 2.4% in the wealthiest group (monthly income ≥ 13,000 CHF, 1 CHF ≈ 1$) to 23.5% among participants with the lowest income (<3,000 CHF). Since 2007/8, forgoing dental care remained stable overall, but in subjects with a monthly income of <3,000 CHF, the adjusted percentage increased from 16.3% in 2007/8 to 20.6% in 2012 (P trend = 0.002). Forgoing dental care for economic reasons was independently associated with lower income, younger age, female gender, current smoking, having dependent children, divorced status and not living with a partner, not having a supplementary health insurance, and receipt of a health insurance premium cost-subsidy. CONCLUSIONS: In a Swiss region without universal dental care insurance coverage, prevalence of forgoing dental care for economic reasons was high and highly dependent on income. Efforts should be made to prevent high-risk populations from forgoing dental care.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Des DRG pour financer les hospitalisations en psychiatrie ?

En psychiatrie, les diagnostics n'expliquent en rien les variations de durée de séjours. Pour pronostiquer les ressources, des outils de description spécifiques devront être élaborés. Et des moyens pour le faire devront être alloués. [Auteur]

High prevalence of forgoing healthcare for economic reasons in Switzerland: a population-based study in a region with universal health insurance coverage.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the determinants and the 4-year evolution of the forgoing of healthcare for economic reasons in Switzerland. METHOD: Population-based survey (2007-2010) of a representative sample aged 35-74years in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. Healthcare forgone, socioeconomic and insurance status, marital status, and presence of dependent children were assessed using standardized methods. RESULTS: A total of 2601 subjects were included in the analyses. Of the subjects, 13.8% (358/2601) reported having forgone healthcare for economic reasons, with the percentage varying from 3.7% in the group with a monthly income ≥13,000CHF (1CHF≈1$) to 30.9% in the group with a monthly income <3000CHF. In subjects with a monthly income <3000CHF, the percentage who had forgone healthcare increased from 22.5% in 2007/8 to 34.7% in 2010 (P trend=0.2). Forgoing healthcare for economic reasons was associated with lower income, female gender, smoking status, lower job position, having dependent children, being divorced and single, paying a higher deductible, and receiving a premium subsidy. CONCLUSION: In a Swiss region with universal health insurance coverage, the reported prevalence of forgoing healthcare for economic reasons was high and greatly dependent on socioeconomic factors. Our data suggested an increasing trend among participants with the lowest income.

Valuing equity-linked death benefits in jump diffusion models

The paper is motivated by the valuation problem of guaranteed minimum death benefits in various equity-linked products. At the time of death, a benefit payment is due. It may depend not only on the price of a stock or stock fund at that time, but also on prior prices. The problem is to calculate the expected discounted value of the benefit payment. Because the distribution of the time of death can be approximated by a combination of exponential distributions, it suffices to solve the problem for an exponentially distributed time of death. The stock price process is assumed to be the exponential of a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process whose upward and downward jumps are modeled by combinations (or mixtures) of exponential distributions. Results for exponential stopping of a Lévy process are used to derive a series of closed-form formulas for call, put, lookback, and barrier options, dynamic fund protection, and dynamic withdrawal benefit with guarantee. We also discuss how barrier options can be used to model lapses and surrenders.

Geometric stopping of a random walk and its applications to valuing equity-linked death benefits

We study discrete-time models in which death benefits can depend on a stock price index, the logarithm of which is modeled as a random walk. Examples of such benefit payments include put and call options, barrier options, and lookback options. Because the distribution of the curtate-future-lifetime can be approximated by a linear combination of geometric distributions, it suffices to consider curtate-future-lifetimes with a geometric distribution. In binomial and trinomial tree models, closed-form expressions for the expectations of the discounted benefit payment are obtained for a series of options. They are based on results concerning geometric stopping of a random walk, in particular also on a version of the Wiener-Hopf factorization.

Zins-Spreads als Einnahmequelle für Kantone : Die Abhängigkeit des Passivzinssatzes von den Bruttoschulden und damit einhergehende Renditemöglichkeiten am Kapitalmarkt

Über eine längere Zeitdauer betrachtet, weisen staatliche Schulden tendenziell tiefere Zinssätze respektive Renditen auf als andere auf dem Markt gehandelte papiere, was teilweise durch das geringere Risiko erklärt werden kann (Mehra & Prescott, 2003: S.892). Indem die Abhängigkeit der Schuldzinssätze von den Schuldenquoten der Schweizer Kantone modelliert und in Beziehung zu einer adäquaten Marktrendite gebracht wird, zeigt diese Arbeit, welches Einnahmepotential sich aus diesem Zins-Spread für die Schweizer Kantone ergibt. Zur Schätzung der Zinskurve wird vom Marktgleichgewicht ausgegangen, bei welchem die investoren mit einem Default Premium für einen möglichen Ausfall des Kantons als Schuldner, im Vergleich zu einer risikolosen Anlage, abgegolten werden müssen (Bayoumi, Goldstein und Woglom, 1995: S. 1048-1051). Dazu werden die für den Schweizer Kontext spezifischen Determinanten für die Ausfallswahrscheinlichkeit identifiziert (Daldoss und Foraita, 2003: S. 87). Empirisch überprüft wird dieses Modell anhand eines quantitativen Ansatzes, wobei in erster Linie die Generalisierte Momenten-Methode (GMM) angewandt wird. Als Datenbasis dient hauptsächlich die Finanzstatistik der Eidgenössischen Finanzverwaltung (EFV), wobei alle 26 Schweizer Kantone im Zeitraum von 1981 bis 2011 betrachtet werden. Als Marktrendite wird die durchschnittliche Rendite der Schweizer Pensionskassen verwendet. Mit den verwendeten Daten und Modellen kann die Form der Zinskurve jedoch nicht eindeutig bestimmt werden, was grösstenteils auf die Endogenitätsproblematik zurückzuführen ist. Diese kann aufgrund ungenügender und mangelhafter Instrumente ohne zusätzliche Daten nicht überwunden werden. Folglich kann auch keine optimale Schuldenquote bestimmt werden. Die quantitativen Resultate deuten dennoch auf ein gewisses Einnahmepotential hin. Wie das Fallbeispiel Kanton Aargau zeigt, kann dieses punktuell auch gebraucht werden und findet in der Praxis Anwendung (Anonymer Interviewpartner, 2013).