Clinical predictors of prophylaxis use prior to the onset of acute venous thromboembolism in hospitalized patients SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER).

BACKGROUND: We investigated clinical predictors of appropriate prophylaxis prior to the onset of venous thromboembolism (VTE). METHODS: In 14 Swiss hospitals, 567 consecutive patients (306 medical, 261 surgical) with acute VTE and hospitalization < 30 days prior to the VTE event were enrolled. RESULTS: Prophylaxis was used in 329 (58%) patients within 30 days prior to the VTE event. Among the medical patients, 146 (48%) received prophylaxis, and among the surgical patients, 183 (70%) received prophylaxis (P < 0.001). The indication for prophylaxis was present in 262 (86%) medical patients and in 217 (83%) surgical patients. Among the patients with an indication for prophylaxis, 135 (52%) of the medical patients and 165 (76%) of the surgical patients received prophylaxis (P < 0.001). Admission to the intensive care unit [odds ratio (OR) 3.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.94-5.57], recent surgery (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.51-3.44), bed rest > 3 days (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.45-3.09), obesity (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.03-3.90), prior deep vein thrombosis (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.31-2.24) and prior pulmonary embolism (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.05-2.26) were independent predictors of prophylaxis. In contrast, cancer (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.89-1.25), age (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.01), acute heart failure (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.79-1.63) and acute respiratory failure (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.89-1.59) were not predictive of prophylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: Although an indication for prophylaxis was present in most patients who suffered acute VTE, almost half did not receive any form of prophylaxis. Future efforts should focus on the improvement of prophylaxis for hospitalized patients, particularly in patients with cancer, acute heart or respiratory failure, and in the elderly.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade &gt; or =III vs &lt;III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p&lt;0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (&gt; or =4 mm vs &lt;4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p&lt;0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (&gt; or =60 vs &lt;60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (&gt; or =5 years vs &lt;5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Severe stroke: patient profile and predictors of favorable outcome.

Summary.  Background:  Severe stroke carries high rates of mortality and morbidity. The aims of this study were to determine the characteristics of patients who initially presented with severe ischemic stroke, and to identify acute and subacute predictors of favorable clinical outcome in these patients. Methods:  An observational cohort study, Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), was analyzed, and all patients presenting with severe stroke - defined as a National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥ 20 on admission - were compared with all other patients. In a multivariate analysis, associations with demographic, clinical, pathophysiologic, metabolic and neuroimaging factors were determined. Furthermore, we analyzed predictors of favorable outcome (modified Rankin scale score of ≤ 3 at 3 months) in the subgroup of severe stroke patients. Results:  Of 1915 consecutive patients, 243 (12.7%) presented with severe stroke. This was significantly associated with cardio-embolic stroke mechanism (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.54), unknown stroke onset (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.14-4.83), more neuroimaging signs of early ischemia (mostly computed tomography; OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.79-3.92), arterial occlusions on acute imaging (OR 27.01, 95% CI 11.5-62.9), fewer chronic radiologic infarcts (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.26-0.72), lower hemoglobin concentration (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99), and higher white cell count (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11). In the 68 (28%) patients with favorable outcomes despite presenting with severe stroke, this was predicted by lower age (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.97), preceding cerebrovascular events (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.01-8.97), hypolipemic pretreatment (OR 3.82, 95% CI 1.34-10.90), lower acute temperature (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.78), lower subacute glucose concentration (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.97), and spontaneous or treatment-induced recanalization (OR 4.51, 95% CI 1.96-10.41). Conclusions:  Severe stroke presentation is predicted by multiple clinical, radiologic and metabolic variables, several of which are modifiable. Predictors in the 28% of patients with favorable outcome despite presenting with severe stroke include hypolipemic pretreatment, lower acute temperature, lower glucose levels at 24 h, and arterial recanalization.

Work values as predictors of entrepreneurial career intentions: A longitudinal analysis of gender effects

Purpose - Work values are an important characteristic to understand gender differences in career intentions, but how gender affects the relationship between values and career intentions is not well established. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether gender moderates the effects of work values on level and change of entrepreneurial intentions (EI). Design/methodology/approach - In total, 218 German university students were sampled regarding work values and with EI assessed three times over the course of 12 months. Data were analysed with latent growth modelling. Findings - Self-enhancement and openness to change values predicted higher levels and conservation values lower levels of EI. Gender moderated the effects of enhancement and conservation values on change in EI. Research limitations/implications - The authors relied on self-reported measures and the sample was restricted to university students. Future research needs to verify to what extent these results generalize to other samples and different career fields, such as science or nursing. Practical implications - The results imply that men and women are interested in an entrepreneurial career based on the same work values but that values have different effects for men and women regarding individual changes in EI. The results suggest that the prototypical work values of a career domain seem important regarding increasing the career intent for the gender that is underrepresented in that domain. Originality/value - The results enhance understanding of how gender affects the relation of work values and a specific career intention, such as entrepreneurship.

Predictors and Moderators of Clinical Outcomes in Adolescents with Severe Mental Disorders After an Assertive Community Treatment.

Previous studies have shown that stressful life events (SLEs), gender, social functioning and pretreatment severity are some of the predictors and/or moderators of treatment outcome in psychiatric care. The current study explored the effect of these predictors and moderators on the treatment outcome related to assertive community treatment (ACT) proposed to young people with severe mental disorders. 98 patients were assessed for externalizing and emotional difficulties, at admission and then at discharge of an ACT. Analyses revealed significant improvements in terms of symptomatology. In particular, regression analyses showed that pretreatment severity is a significant predictor of the outcome on emotional symptoms and is moderated by SLE on the outcome on externalizing symptoms. Furthermore, higher social functioning proved to predict better outcome on externalizing symptoms. Our results further evidence that these factors can explain inter-individual differences in outcome related to ACT. The theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed.

Predictors of leadership: The usual suspects and the suspect traits

In this chapter, I review literature on traits (i.e., individual differences) and their links to leader outcomes. I present an integrated model, the ascription-actuality trait theory, to explain two routes to leader outcomes that stem from traits: the route that objectively matters and the route that appears to matter but objectively may not. I discuss the history of trait research and provide criteria by which we should judge the validity of trait models. Finally, I review trait models that are the most predictive of leadership outcomes and identify those that are non-starters.

Predictors of developmental dyslexia in European orthographies with varying complexity.

Background:  The relationship between phoneme awareness, rapid automatized naming (RAN), verbal short-term/working memory (ST/WM) and diagnostic category is investigated in control and dyslexic children, and the extent to which this depends on orthographic complexity. Methods:  General cognitive, phonological and literacy skills were tested in 1,138 control and 1,114 dyslexic children speaking six different languages spanning a large range of orthographic complexity (Finnish, Hungarian, German, Dutch, French, English). Results:  Phoneme deletion and RAN were strong concurrent predictors of developmental dyslexia, while verbal ST/WM and general verbal abilities played a comparatively minor role. In logistic regression models, more participants were classified correctly when orthography was more complex. The impact of phoneme deletion and RAN-digits was stronger in complex than in less complex orthographies. Conclusions:  Findings are largely consistent with the literature on predictors of dyslexia and literacy skills, while uniquely demonstrating how orthographic complexity exacerbates some symptoms of dyslexia.

A prospective study of predictors of poststroke depression.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between early depressive behavior after stroke onset and occurrence of poststroke depression (PSD) at 3- and 12-month follow-up evaluations. METHODS: The study prospectively included 273 patients with first-ever single uncomplicated ischemic stroke. In the stroke unit, nurses scored crying, overt sadness, and apathy daily using an observational method to include patients with comprehension deficits. The Barthel Index was used to assess disability. Follow-up evaluation at months 3 and 12 included psychiatric assessment based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition. RESULTS: Crying (19.8%), overt sadness (50.5%), and apathy (47.6%) were observed. Of the patients observed crying, 4 showed pathologic crying, 19 emotionalism, and 12 catastrophic reactions. Crying and overt sadness, but not apathy, were associated with a subjective experience of depression (p < 0.05). Thirty of 52 (58%) patients observed crying, 12 of 19 (63%) patients with emotionalism, and 5 of 12 (41%) patients with catastrophic reactions developed PSD within the first year. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only severe functional disability (odds ratio [OR], 4.31; 95% CI, 2.41 to 7.69), crying behaviors (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.35 to 5.27), and an age <68 years (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.30 to 4.13) were (p < 0.05) predictors of late PSD development (13% of the variance). CONCLUSIONS: In the stroke unit, crying and overt sadness are more reliable indicators of depressed mood than apathy. In patients with first-ever stroke, crying behaviors soon after stroke, a younger age, and severe disability are predictors of poststroke depression occurrence within the first year after stroke onset.

The impact of cyclin D1 mRNA isoforms, morphology and p53 in mantle cell lymphoma: p53 alterations and blastoid morphology are strong predictors of a high proliferation index.

BACKGROUND: Mantle cell lymphoma is a clinically heterogeneous disease characterized by overexpression of cyclin D1 protein. Blastoid morphology, high proliferation, and secondary genetic aberrations are markers of aggressive behavior. Expression profiling of mantle cell lymphoma revealed that predominance of the 3'UTR-deficient, short cyclin D1 mRNA isoform was associated with high cyclin D1 levels, a high "proliferation signature" and poor prognosis. DESIGN AND METHODS: Sixty-two cases of mantle cell lymphoma were analyzed for cyclin D1 mRNA isoforms and total cyclin D1 levels by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, and TP53 alterations were assessed by immunohistochemistry and molecular analysis. Results were correlated with proliferation index and clinical outcome. RESULTS: Predominance of the short cyclin D1 mRNA was found in 14 (23%) samples, including four with complete loss of the standard transcript. TP53 alterations were found in 15 (24%) cases. Predominance of 3'UTR-deficient mRNA was significantly associated with high cyclin D1 mRNA levels (P=0.009) and more commonly found in blastoid mantle cell lymphoma (5/11, P=0.060) and cases with a proliferation index of >20% (P=0.026). Both blastoid morphology (11/11, P<0.001) and TP53 alterations (15/15, P<0.001) were significantly correlated with a high proliferation index. A proliferation index of 10% was determined to be a significant threshold for survival in multivariate analysis (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: TP53 alterations are strongly associated with a high proliferation index and aggressive behavior in mantle cell lymphoma. Predominance of the 3'UTR-deficient transcript correlates with higher cyclin D1 levels and may be a secondary contributing factor to high proliferation, but failed to reach prognostic significance in this study.

Predictors of poor response to methotrexate in polyarticular-course juvenile idiopathic arthritis: analysis of the PRINTO methotrexate trial.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether baseline demographic, clinical, articular and laboratory variables predict methotrexate (MTX) poor response in polyarticular-course juvenile idiopathic arthritis. METHODS: Patients newly treated for 6 months with MTX enrolled in the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO) MTX trial. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses were used to identify baseline predictors of poor response according to the American College of Rheumatology pediatric (ACR-ped) 30 and 70 criteria. RESULTS: In all, 405/563 (71.9%) of patients were women; median age at onset and disease duration were 4.3 and 1.4 years, respectively, with anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) detected in 259/537 (48.2%) patients. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, the most important determinants of ACR-ped 70 non-responders were: disease duration > 1.3 years (OR 1.93), ANA negativity (OR 1.77), Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) disability index > 1.125 (OR 1.65) and the presence of right and left wrist activity (OR 1.55). Predictors of ACR-ped 30 non-responders were: ANA negativity (OR 1.92), CHAQ disability index > 1.14 (OR 2.18) and a parent's evaluation of child's overall well-being < or = 4.69 (OR 2.2). CONCLUSION: The subgroup of patients with longer disease duration, ANA negativity, higher disability and presence of wrist activity were significantly associated with a poorer response to a 6-month MTX course.

Pre-pregnancy and pregnancy predictors of obesity.

Obesity has progressively become a global epidemic that constitutes one of the biggest current health problems worldwide. Pregnancy is a risk factor for excessive weight gain. Factors that may predict development of obesity in later life mainly include gestational weight gain, pre-pregnancy nutritional status, age, parity and race. Change in lifestyle factors, such as eating habits, enrollment in physical activity, smoking and duration of lactation, in addition to the above factors, may also contribute to the development of obesity but are still not fully understood. Women who retain more body weight after pregnancy have, in general, larger pregnancy body weight gain, higher pre-pregnancy body mass index, marked weight changes in previous pregnancies, lactate slightly less and stop smoking during pregnancy to a larger extent. In addition, irregular eating habits and decreased leisure time activity after delivery influence postpartum weight retention. Taking into consideration the epidemic of obesity, with all its adverse long-term consequences, there is an increasing need to promote counseling before, during and after pregnancy on the role of diet and physical activity in reproductive health.

Self perceptions as predictors for return to work 2 years after rehabilitation in orthopedic trauma inpatients.

Purpose This study aimed to identify self-perception variables which may predict return to work (RTW) in orthopedic trauma patients 2 years after rehabilitation. Methods A prospective cohort investigated 1,207 orthopedic trauma inpatients, hospitalised in rehabilitation, clinics at admission, discharge, and 2 years after discharge. Information on potential predictors was obtained from self administered questionnaires. Multiple logistic regression models were applied. Results In the final model, a higher likelihood of RTW was predicted by: better general health and lower pain at admission; health and pain improvements during hospitalisation; lower impact of event (IES-R) avoidance behaviour score; higher IES-R hyperarousal score, higher SF-36 mental score and low perceived severity of the injury. Conclusion RTW is not only predicted by perceived health, pain and severity of the accident at the beginning of a rehabilitation program, but also by the changes in pain and health perceptions observed during hospitalisation.

Predictors of onset of cannabis and other drug use in male young adults: results from a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The use of cannabis and other illegal drugs is particularly prevalent in male young adults and is associated with severe health problems. This longitudinal study explored variables associated with the onset of cannabis use and the onset of illegal drug use other than cannabis separately in male young adults, including demographics, religion and religiosity, health, social context, substance use, and personality. Furthermore, we explored how far the gateway hypothesis and the common liability to addiction model are in line with the resulting prediction models. METHODS: The data were gathered within the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). Young men aged around 20 years provided demographic, social, health, substance use, and personality-related data at baseline. Onset of cannabis and other drug use were assessed at 15-months follow-up. Samples of 2,774 and 4,254 individuals who indicated at baseline that they have not used cannabis and other drugs, respectively, in their life and who provided follow-up data were used for the prediction models. Hierarchical logistic stepwise regressions were conducted, in order to identify predictors of the late onset of cannabis and other drug use separately. RESULTS: Not providing for oneself, having siblings, depressiveness, parental divorce, lower parental knowledge of peers and the whereabouts, peer pressure, very low nicotine dependence, and sensation seeking were positively associated with the onset of cannabis use. Practising religion was negatively associated with the onset of cannabis use. Onset of drug use other than cannabis showed a positive association with depressiveness, antisocial personality disorder, lower parental knowledge of peers and the whereabouts, psychiatric problems of peers, problematic cannabis use, and sensation seeking. CONCLUSIONS: Consideration of the predictor variables identified within this study may help to identify young male adults for whom preventive measures for cannabis or other drug use are most appropriate. The results provide evidence for both the gateway hypothesis and the common liability to addiction model and point to further variables like depressiveness or practising of religion that might influence the onset of drug use.

A systematic review of longitudinal population-based studies on the predictors of smoking cessation in adolescent and young adult smokers.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the determinants of self-initiated smoking cessation of duration of at least 6 months as identified in longitudinal population-based studies of adolescent and young adult smokers. METHODS: A systematic search of the PubMed and EMBASE databases using smoking, tobacco, cessation, quit and stop as keywords was performed. Limits included articles related to humans, in English, published between January 1984 and August 2010, and study population aged 10-29 years. A total of 4502 titles and 871 abstracts were reviewed independently by 2 and 3 reviewers, respectively. Nine articles were retained for data abstraction. Data on study location, timeframe, duration of follow-up, number of data collection points, sample size, age/grade of participants, number of quitters, smoking status at baseline, definition of cessation, covariates and analytic method were abstracted from each article. The number of studies that reported a statistically significant association between each determinant investigated and cessation were tabulated, from among all studies that assessed the determinant. RESULTS: Despite heterogeneity in methods across studies, five factors robustly predicted quitting across studies in which the factor was investigated: not having friends who smoke, not having intentions to smoke in the future, resisting peer pressure to smoke, being older at first use of cigarette and having negative beliefs about smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The literature on longitudinal predictors of cessation in adolescent and young adult smokers is not well developed. Cessation interventions for this population will remain less than optimally effective until there is a solid evidence base on which to develop interventions.