A new perspective on the evolutionary history of western European Sorex araneus group revealed by paternal and maternal molecular markers.

The species of the common shrew (Sorex araneus) group are morphologically very similar, but have undergone a spectacular chromosomal evolution. We investigate here the evolutionary history of the Sorex araneus group distributed in western Europe. In particular, we clarify the position of a difficult species, S. granarius, using sex-specific (mtDNA and Y-chromosome) markers. The karyotype of S. granarius is generally considered similar to the common ancestor of the restricted group considered here. The mtDNA data (1.4 kb) confirms the close relationship between S. granarius and S. araneus sensu stricto (hereafter S. araneus s.s.), but the Y-chromosome (3.4 kb) produces a quite different picture: S. granarius is closely related to another species, S. coronatus. Comparison of mtDNA and Y-chromosome phylogenies suggests that the genetic and chromosomal evolution in this group are disconnected processes. The evolutionary history of the south-western European populations of the S. araneus group can only be understood considering secondary contacts between taxa after their divergence, implying genetic exchanges by means of hybridization and/or introgression.

Case-control analysis of paternal age and trisomic anomalies.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome. DESIGN: Case-control: cases with each of these syndromes were matched to four controls with Down syndrome from within the same congenital anomaly register and with maternal age within 6 months. SETTING: Data from 22 EUROCAT congenital anomaly registers in 12 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: Diagnoses with observed or (for terminations) predicted year of birth from 1980 to 2005, comprising live births, fetal deaths with gestational age ≥ 20 weeks and terminations after prenatal diagnosis of the anomaly. Data include 374 cases of Patau syndrome, 929 of Edwards syndrome, 295 of Klinefelter syndrome, 28 of XYY syndrome and 5627 controls with Down syndrome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Odds ratio (OR) associated with a 10-year increase in paternal age for each anomaly was estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results were adjusted to take account of the estimated association of paternal age with Down syndrome (1.11; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23). RESULTS: The OR for Patau syndrome was 1.10 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.45); for Edwards syndrome, 1.15 (0.96 to 1.38); for Klinefelter syndrome, 1.35 (1.02 to 1.79); and for XYY syndrome, 1.99 (0.75 to 5.26). CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant increase in the odds of Klinefelter syndrome with increasing paternal age. The larger positive associations of Klinefelter and XYY syndromes with paternal age compared with Patau and Edwards syndromes are consistent with the greater percentage of these sex chromosome anomalies being of paternal origin.

Temporal variation in glucocorticoid levels during the resting phase is associated in opposite way with maternal and paternal melanic coloration.

Sex-dependent selection can help maintain sexual dimorphism. When the magnitude of selection exerted on a heritable sex trait differs between the sexes, it may prevent each sex to reach its phenotypic optimum. As a consequence, the benefit of expressing a sex trait to a given value may differ between males and females favouring sex-specific adaptations associated with different values of a sex trait. The level of metabolites regulated by genes that are under sex-dependent selection may therefore covary with the degree of ornamentation differently in the two sexes. We investigated this prediction in the barn owl, a species in which females display on average larger black spots on the plumage than males, a heritable ornament. This melanin-based colour trait is strongly selected in females and weakly counter-selected in males indicating sex-dependent selection. In nestling barn owls, we found that daily variation in baseline corticosterone levels, a key hormone that mediates life history trade-offs, covaries with spot diameter displayed by their biological parents. When their mother displayed larger spots, nestlings had lower corticosterone levels in the morning and higher levels in the evening, whereas the opposite pattern was found with the size of paternal spots. Our study suggests a link between daily regulation of glucocorticoids and sex-dependent selection exerted on sexually dimorphic melanin-based ornaments.

When physician-expressed uncertainty leads to patient dissatisfaction: a gender study.

CONTEXT: Communication guidelines often advise physicians to disclose to their patients medical uncertainty regarding the diagnosis, origin of the problem, and treatment. However, the effect of the expression of such uncertainty on patient outcomes (e.g. satisfaction) has produced conflicting results in the literature that indicate either no effect or a negative effect. The differences in the results of past studies may be explained by the fact that potential gender effects on the link between physician-expressed uncertainty and patient outcomes have not been investigated systematically. OBJECTIVES: On the basis of previous research documenting indications that patients may judge female physicians by more severe criteria than they do male physicians, and that men are more prejudiced than women towards women, we predicted that physician-expressed uncertainty would have more of a negative impact on patient satisfaction when the physician in question was female rather than male, and especially when the patient was a man. METHODS: We conducted two studies with complementary designs. Study 1 was a randomised controlled trial conducted in a simulated setting (120 analogue patients Analogue patients are healthy participants asked to put themselves in the shoes of real medical patients by imagining being the patients of physicians shown on videos); Study 2 was a field study conducted in real medical interviews (36 physicians, 69 patients). In Study 1, participants were presented with vignettes that varied in terms of the physician's gender and physician-expressed uncertainty (high versus low). In Study 2, physicians were filmed during real medical consultations and the level of uncertainty they expressed was coded by an independent rater according to the videos. In both studies, patient satisfaction was assessed using a questionnaire. RESULTS: The results confirmed that expressed uncertainty was negatively related to patient satisfaction only when the physician was a woman (Studies 1 and 2) and when the patient was a man (Study 2). CONCLUSIONS: We believe that patients have the right to be fully informed of any medical uncertainties. If our results are confirmed in further research, the question of import will refer not to whether female physicians should communicate uncertainty, but to how they should communicate it. For instance, if it proves true that uncertainty negatively impacts on (male) patients' satisfaction, female physicians might want to counterbalance this impact by emphasizing other communication skills.

Signalling value of maternal and paternal melanism in the barn owl : implication for the resolution of the lek paradox

Secondary sexual characters often signal qualities such as physiological processes associated with resistance to various sources of stress. When the expression of an ornament is not sex-limited, we can identify the costs and benefits of displaying a trait that is typical of its own sex or of the other sex. Indeed, the magnitude and sign of the covariation between physiology and the extent to which an ornament is expressed could differ between males and females if, for instance, the regulation of physiological processes is sensitive to sex hormones. Using data collected over 14 years in the nocturnal barn owl Tyto alba, we investigated how nestling body mass covaries with a heritable melanin-based sex-trait, females displaying on average larger black feather spots than males. Independently of nestling sex, year and time of the day large-spotted nestlings were heavier than small-spotted nestlings. In contrast, the magnitude and sign of the covariation between nestling body mass and the size of parental spots varied along the day in a way that depended on the year and parental gender. In poor years, offspring of smaller-spotted mothers were heavier throughout the resting period; in the morning, offspring sired by larger-spotted fathers were heavier than offspring of smaller-spotted fathers, while in the evening the opposite pattern was found. Thus, maternal and paternal coloration is differentially associated with behaviour or physiology, processes that are sensitive to time of the day and environmental factors. Interestingly, the covariation between offspring body mass and paternal coloration is more sensitive to these environmental factors than the covariation with maternal coloration. This indicates that the benefit of pairing with differently spotted males may depend on environmental conditions, which could help maintain genetic variation in the face of intense directional (sexual) selection.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Political market and regulatory uncertainty: Insights and implications for integrated strategy

Managers can craft effective integrated strategy by properly assessing regulatory uncertainty. Leveraging the existing political markets literature, we predict regulatory uncertainty from the novel interaction of demand and supply side rivalries across a range of political markets. We argue for two primary drivers of regulatory uncertainty: ideology-motivated interests opposed to the firm and a lack of competition for power among political actors supplying public policy. We align three, previously disparate dimensions of nonmarket strategy - profile level, coalition breadth, and pivotal target - to levels of regulatory uncertainty. Through this framework, we demonstrate how and when firms employ different nonmarket strategies. To illustrate variation in nonmarket strategy across levels of regulatory uncertainty, we analyze several market entry decisions of foreign firms operating in the global telecommunications sector.

Uncertainty associated with Monte Carlo radiation transport in radionuclide metrology

In radionuclide metrology, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is widely used to compute parameters associated with primary measurements or calibration factors. Although MC methods are used to estimate uncertainties, the uncertainty associated with radiation transport in MC calculations is usually difficult to estimate. Counting statistics is the most obvious component of MC uncertainty and has to be checked carefully, particularly when variance reduction is used. However, in most cases fluctuations associated with counting statistics can be reduced using sufficient computing power. Cross-section data have intrinsic uncertainties that induce correlations when apparently independent codes are compared. Their effect on the uncertainty of the estimated parameter is difficult to determine and varies widely from case to case. Finally, the most significant uncertainty component for radionuclide applications is usually that associated with the detector geometry. Recent 2D and 3D x-ray imaging tools may be utilized, but comparison with experimental data as well as adjustments of parameters are usually inevitable.

Example of Monte Carlo uncertainty assessment in the field of radionuclide metrology

This chapter presents possible uses and examples of Monte Carlo methods for the evaluation of uncertainties in the field of radionuclide metrology. The method is already well documented in GUM supplement 1, but here we present a more restrictive approach, where the quantities of interest calculated by the Monte Carlo method are estimators of the expectation and standard deviation of the measurand, and the Monte Carlo method is used to propagate the uncertainties of the input parameters through the measurement model. This approach is illustrated by an example of the activity calibration of a 103Pd source by liquid scintillation counting and the calculation of a linear regression on experimental data points. An electronic supplement presents some algorithms which may be used to generate random numbers with various statistical distributions, for the implementation of this Monte Carlo calculation method.

Uncertainty of combined activity estimations

This paper discusses basic theoretical strategies used to deal with measurement uncertainties arising from different experimental situations. It attempts to indicate the most appropriate method of obtaining a reliable estimate of the quantity to be evaluated depending on the characteristics of the data available. The theoretical strategies discussed are supported by experimental detail, and the conditions and results have been taken from examples in the field of radionuclide metrology. Special care regarding the correct treatment of covariances is emphasized because of the unreliability of the results obtained if these are neglected

Uncertainty evaluation in activity measurements using ionization chambers

Pressurized re-entrant (or 4 pi) ionization chambers (ICs) connected to current-measuring electronics are used for activity measurements of photon emitting radionuclides and some beta emitters in the fields of metrology and nuclear medicine. As a secondary method, these instruments need to be calibrated with appropriate activity standards from primary or direct standardization. The use of these instruments over 50 years has been well described in numerous publications, such as the Monographie BIPM-4 and the special issue of Metrologia on radionuclide metrology (Ratel 2007 Metrologia 44 S7-16, Schrader1997 Activity Measurements With Ionization Chambers (Monographie BIPM-4) Schrader 2007 Metrologia 44 S53-66, Cox et al 2007 Measurement Modelling of the International Reference System (SIR) for Gamma-Emitting Radionuclides (Monographie BIPM-7)). The present work describes the principles of activity measurements, calibrations, and impurity corrections using pressurized ionization chambers in the first part and the uncertainty analysis illustrated with example uncertainty budgets from routine source-calibration as well as from an international reference system (SIR) measurement in the second part.