Respiratory muscle training enhances maximal minute ventilation and forced vital capacity in adolescent athletes.

Introduction. Respiratory difficulties in athletes are common, especially in adolescents, even in the absence of exercise-induced bronchoconstriction. Immaturity of the respiratory muscles coupling at high respiratory rates could be a potential mechanism. Whether respiratory muscle training (RMT) can positively influence it is yet unknown. Goal. We investigate the effects of RMT on ventilation and performance parameters in adolescent athletes and hypothesize that RMT will enhance respiratory capacity. Methods. 12 healthy subjects (8 male, 4 female, 17±0.5 years) from a sports/study high school class, competitively involved in various sports (minimum of 10 hours per week) underwent respiratory function testing, maximal minute ventilation (MMV) measurements and a maximal treadmill incremental test with VO2max and ventilatory thresholds (VT1 and VT2) determination. They then underwent one month of RMT (4 times/week) using a eucapnic hyperventilation device, with an incremental training program. The same tests were repeated after RMT. Results. Subjects completed 14.8 sessions of RMT, with an increase in total ventilation per session of 211±29% during training. Borg scale evaluation of the RMT session was unchanged or reduced in all subjects, despite an increase in total respiratory work. No changes (p>0.05) were observed pre/post RMT in VO2max (53.4±7.5 vs 51.6±7.7 ml/kg/min), VT2 (14.4±1.4 vs 14.0±1.1 km/h) or Speed max at end of test (16.1±1.7 vs 15.8±1.7 km/h). MVV increased by 9.2% (176.7±36.9 vs 192.9±32.6 l/min, p<0.001) and FVC by 3.3% (6.70±0.75 vs 4.85±0.76 litres, p<0.05). Subjective evaluation of respiratory sensations during exercise and daily living were also improved. Conclusions. RMT improves MMV and FVC in adolescent athletes, along with important subjective respiratory benefits, although no changes are seen in treadmill maximal performance tests and VO2max measurements. RMT can be easily performed in adolescent without side effects, with a potential for improvement in training capacity and overall well-being.

Characterization of pupil responses to blue and red light stimuli in autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa due to NR2E3 mutation.

PURPOSE: We characterized the pupil responses that reflect rod, cone, and melanopsin function in a genetically homogeneous cohort of patients with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa (adRP). METHODS: Nine patients with Gly56Arg mutation of the NR2E3 gene and 12 control subjects were studied. Pupil and subjective visual responses to red and blue light flashes over a 7 log-unit range of intensities were recorded under dark and light adaptation. The pupil responses were plotted against stimulus intensity to obtain red-light and blue-light response curves. RESULTS: In the dark-adapted blue-light stimulus condition, patients showed significantly higher threshold intensities for visual perception and for a pupil response compared to controls (P = 0.02 and P = 0.006, respectively). The rod-dependent, blue-light pupil responses decreased with disease progression. In contrast, the cone-dependent pupil responses (light-adapted red-light stimulus condition) did not differ between patients and controls. The difference in the retinal sensitivity to blue and red stimuli was the most sensitive parameter to detect photoreceptor dysfunction. Unexpectedly, the melanopsin-mediated pupil response was decreased in patients (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Pupil responses of patients with NR2E3-associated adRP demonstrated reduced retinal sensitivity to dim blue light under dark adaptation, presumably reflecting decreased rod function. Rod-dependent pupil responses were quantifiable in all patients, including those with non-recordable scotopic electroretinogram, and correlated with the extent of clinical disease. Thus, the chromatic pupil light reflex can be used to monitor photoreceptor degeneration over a larger range of disease progression compared to standard electrophysiology.

Liquid line of descent of a basanitic liquid at 1.5 GPa: Constraints for metasomatic vein formation

The metasomatism observed in the oceanic and continental lithosphere is generally interpreted to represent a continuous differentiation process forming anhydrous and hydrous veins plus a cryptic enrichment in the surrounding peridotite. In order to constrain the mechanisms of vein formation and potentially clarify the nature and origin of the initial metasomatic agent, we performed a series of high-pressure experiments simulating the liquid line of descent of a basanitic magma differentiating within continental or mature oceanic lithosphere. This series of experiments has been conducted in an end-loaded piston cylinder apparatus starting from an initial hydrous ne-normative basanite at 1.5 GPa and temperature varying between 1,250 and 980°C. Near-pure fractional crystallization process was achieved in a stepwise manner in 30°C temperature steps and starting compositions corresponding to the liquid composition of the previous, higher-temperature glass composition. Liquids evolve progressively from basanite to peralkaline, aluminum-rich compositions without significant SiO2 variation. The resulting cumulates are characterized by an anhydrous clinopyroxene + olivine assemblage at high temperature (1,250-1,160°C), while at lower temperature (1,130-980°C), hydrous cumulates with dominantly amphibole + minor clinopyroxene, spinel, ilmenite, titanomagnetite and apatite (1,130-980°C) are formed. This new data set supports the interpretation that anhydrous and hydrous metasomatic veins could be produced during continuous differentiation processes of primary, hydrous alkaline magmas at high pressure. However, the comparison between the cumulates generated by the fractional crystallization from an initial ne-normative liquid or from hy-normative initial compositions (hawaiite or picrobasalt) indicates that for all hydrous liquids, the different phases formed upon differentiation are mostly similar even though the proportions of hydrous versus anhydrous minerals could vary significantly. This suggests that the formation of amphibole-bearing metasomatic veins observed in the lithospheric mantle could be linked to the differentiation of initial liquids ranging from ne-normative to hy-normative in composition. The present study does not resolve the question whether the metasomatism observed in lithospheric mantle is a precursor or a consequence of alkaline magmatism; however, it confirms that the percolation and differentiation of a liquid produced by a low degree of partial melting of a source similar or slightly more enriched than depleted MORB mantle could generate hydrous metasomatic veins interpreted as a potential source for alkaline magmatism by various authors.

The role of ceramide trihexoside (globotriaosylceramide) in the diagnosis and follow-up of the efficacy of treatment of Fabry disease: a review of the literature.

Fabry disease is caused by a deficiency of a-galactosidase A which leads to the progressive intra-lysosomal accumulation of ceramide trihexoside (CTH), also known as globotriaosylceramide (Gb3), in different cell types and body fluids. The clinical manifestations are multisystemic and predominantly affect the heart, kidney and central nervous system. The role of CTH in the pathophysiological process of Fabry disease is not established, and the link between the degree of accumulation and disease manifestations is not systematic. The use of CTH as a diagnostic tool has been proposed for several decades. The recent introduction of a specific treatment for Fabry disease in the form of enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) has led to the need for a biological marker, in place of a clinical sign, for evaluating the efficacy of treatment and also as a tool for following the long term effects of treatment. The ideal biomarker must adhere to strict criteria, and there should be a correlation between the degree of clinical efficacy of treatment and a change in its concentration. This review of the literature assesses the utility of CTH as a diagnostic tool and as a marker of the efficacy of ERT in patients with Fabry disease. Several techniques have been developed for measuring CTH; the principles and the sensitivity thresholds of these methods and the units used to express the results should be taken into consideration when interpreting data. The use of CTH measurement in Fabry disease should be re-evaluated in light of recent published data.

Preliminary regional rockfall hazard mapping using LIDAR-based slope frequency distribution and CONEFALL modeling

A factor limiting preliminary rockfall hazard mapping at regional scale is often the lack of knowledge of potential source areas. Nowadays, high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) can account for realistic landscape details even at large scale. With such fine-scale morphological variability, quantitative geomorphometric analyses become a relevant approach for delineating potential rockfall instabilities. Using digital elevation model (DEM)-based ?slope families? concept over areas of similar lithology and cliffs and screes zones available from the 1:25,000 topographic map, a susceptibility rockfall hazard map was drawn up in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, in order to provide a relevant hazard overview. Slope surfaces over morphometrically-defined thresholds angles were considered as rockfall source zones. 3D modelling (CONEFALL) was then applied on each of the estimated source zones in order to assess the maximum runout length. Comparison with known events and other rockfall hazard assessments are in good agreement, showing that it is possible to assess rockfall activities over large areas from DEM-based parameters and topographical elements.

Evaluation of different POCT devices for glucose measurement in a clinical neonatal setting.

Hypoglycaemia is a major cause of neonatal morbidity and may induce long-term developmental sequelae. Clinical signs of hypoglycaemia in neonatal infants are unspecific or even absent, and therefore, precise and accurate methods for the assessment of glycaemia are needed. Glycaemia measurement in newborns has some particularities like a very low limit of normal glucose concentration compared to adults and a large range of normal haematocrit values. Many bedside point-of-care testing (POCT) systems are available, but literature about their accuracy in newborn infants is scarce and not very convincing. In this retrospective study, we identified over a 1-year study period 1,324 paired glycaemia results, one obtained at bedside with one of three different POCT systems (Elite? XL, Ascensia? Contour? and ABL 735) and the other in the central laboratory of the hospital with the hexokinase reference method. All three POCT systems tended to overestimate glycaemia values, and none of them fulfilled the ISO 15197 accuracy criteria. The Elite XL appeared to be more appropriate than Contour to detect hypoglycaemia, however with a low specificity. Contour additionally showed an important inaccuracy with increasing haematocrit. The bench analyzer ABL 735 was the most accurate of the three tested POCT systems. Both of the tested handheld glucometers have important drawbacks in their use as screening tools for hypoglycaemia in newborn infants. ABL 735 could be a valuable alternative, but the blood volume needed is more than 15 times higher than for handheld glucometers. Before daily use in the newborn population, careful clinical evaluation of each new POCT system for glucose measurement is of utmost importance.

Determination of 13C/12C ratios of endogenous urinary 5-amino-imidazole-4-carboxamide 1-D-ribofuranoside (AICAR)

RATIONALE: AICAR (5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide 1β-D-ribofuranoside) is prohibited in sport according to rules established by the World Anti-Doping Agency. Doping control laboratories identify samples where AICAR abuse is suspected by measuring its urinary concentration and comparing the observed level with naturally occurring concentrations. As the inter-individual variance of urinary AICAR concentrations is large, this approach requires a complementary method to unambiguously prove the exogenous origin of AICAR. Therefore, a method for the determination of carbon isotope ratios (CIRs) of urinary AICAR has been developed and validated. METHODS: Concentrated urine samples were fractionated by means of liquid chromatography for analyte cleanup. Derivatization of AICAR yielding the trimethylsilylated analog was necessary to enable CIR determinations by gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry. The method was tested for its repeatability and stability over time and a linear mixing model was applied to test for possible isotopic discrimination. A reference population of n = 63 males and females was investigated to calculate appropriate reference limits to differentiate endogenous from exogenous urinary AICAR. These limits were tested by an AICAR elimination study. RESULTS: The developed method fulfills all the requirements for adequate sports drug testing and was found to be fit for purpose. The investigated reference population showed a larger variability in the CIR of AICAR than of the endogenous steroids. Nevertheless, the calculated thresholds for differences between AICAR and endogenous steroids can be applied straightforwardly to evaluate suspicious doping control samples with the same statistical confidence as established e.g. for testosterone misuse. These thresholds enabled the detection of a single oral AICAR administration for more than 40 h. CONCLUSIONS: Determination of thee CIRs is the method of choice to distinguish between an endogenous and an exogenous source of urinary AICAR. The developed method will enable investigations into doping control samples with elevated urinary concentrations of AICAR and clearly differentiate between naturally produced/elevated and illicitly administered AICAR.

Obésité en Suisse: percentiles d'indice de masse corporelle (IMC) d'une population d'enfants et d'adolescents nés en 1980 à Lausanne et écart avec les normes suisses (1955)

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to calculate the percentiles of BMI of a cohort of 1,203 children and adolescents, representing the 95% of the pupils of the school, born in 1980 followed longitudinally between 5 and 16 years. We compare these percentiles with those of the first swiss study, calculated on a cohort born in 1954-1956. METHODS: The percentiles were calculated with the method of Cole, on the basis of weight and height measured during the controls by the school health service, at a non-periodic mean interval of 14 months. RESULTS: The gap between the BMI percentiles of the two cohorts is near zero for the third percentiles, weak but progressively growing with age up to two units of BMI for the 50th percentiles. For the percentiles 97 the difference, straight away present at five years, grows regularly up to 11 years, and remains thereafter for the girls at 4.3 units of BMI, while growing more up to 6.8 units of BMI at 15 years for the boys. The percentages of children and adolescents of the present study with overweight, in accordance with the thresholds of Cole, constant for the girls at 14%, increase for the five to 11.5 years old boys from 13.4% to 17.6% for the 11.5 to 16 years old. The percentage of obesity is 2.7% for the girls, and increase for the same categories for the boys from a percentage of 1.7% to 2.3% for the boys. CONCLUSIONS: The changes during this quarter of century are important, especially for the boys. We can postulate thereafter a very early change in the energy balance. A chronic increase of the food supply, linked or not with a decrease of the physical activity, would be an explanation.

Standardization of Stroke Perfusion CT for Reperfusion Therapy

With the advances in terms of perfusion imaging, the "time is brain" approach used for acute reperfusion therapy in ischemic stroke patients is slowly being replaced by a "penumbra is brain" or "imaging is brain" approach. But the concept of penumbra-guided reperfusion therapy has not been validated. The lack of standardization in penumbral imaging is one of the main contributing factors for this absence of validation. This article reviews the issues underlying the lack of standardization of perfusion-CT for penumbra imaging, and offers avenues to remedy this situation

Role of genetic and social factors in modulating the efficiency of division of labour in social insects

Summary : Division of labour is one of the most fascinating aspects of social insects. The efficient allocation of individuals to a multitude of different tasks requires a dynamic adjustment in response to the demands of a changing environment. A considerable number of theoretical models have focussed on identifying the mechanisms allowing colonies to perform efficient task allocation. The large majority of these models are built on the observation that individuals in a colony vary in their propensity (response threshold) to perform different tasks. Since individuals with a low threshold for a given task stimulus are more likely to perform that task than individuals with a high threshold, infra-colony variation in individual thresholds results in colony division of labour. These theoretical models suggest that variation in individual thresholds is affected by the within-colony genetic diversity. However, the models have not considered the genetic architecture underlying the individual response thresholds. This is important because a better understanding of division of labour requires determining how genotypic variation relates to differences in infra-colony response threshold distributions. In this thesis, we investigated the combined influence on task allocation efficiency of both, the within-colony genetic variability (stemming from variation in the number of matings by queens) and the number of genes underlying the response thresholds. We used an agent-based simulator to model a situation where workers in a colony had to perform either a regulatory task (where the amount of a given food item in the colony had to be maintained within predefined bounds) or a foraging task (where the quantity of a second type of food item collected had to be the highest possible). The performance of colonies was a function of workers being able to perform both tasks efficiently. To study the effect of within-colony genetic diversity, we compared the performance of colonies with queens mated with varying number of males. On the other hand, the influence of genetic architecture was investigated by varying the number of loci underlying the response threshold of the foraging and regulatory tasks. Artificial evolution was used to evolve the allelic values underlying the tasks thresholds. The results revealed that multiple matings always translated into higher colony performance, whatever the number of loci encoding the thresholds of the regulatory and foraging tasks. However, the beneficial effect of additional matings was particularly important when the genetic architecture of queens comprised one or few genes for the foraging task's threshold. By contrast, higher number of genes encoding the foraging task reduced colony performance with the detrimental effect being stronger when queens had mated with several males. Finally, the number of genes determining the threshold for the regulatory task only had a minor but incremental effect on colony performance. Overall, our numerical experiments indicate the importance of considering the effects of queen mating frequency, genetic architecture underlying task thresholds and the type of task performed when investigating the factors regulating the efficiency of division of labour in social insects. In this thesis we also investigate the task allocation efficiency of response threshold models and compare them with neural networks. While response threshold models are widely used amongst theoretical biologists interested in division of labour in social insects, our simulation reveals that they perform poorly compared to a neural network model. A major shortcoming of response thresholds is that they fail at one of the most crucial requirement of division of labour, the ability of individuals in a colony to efficiently switch between tasks under varying environmental conditions. Moreover, the intrinsic properties of the threshold models are that they lead to a large proportion of idle workers. Our results highlight these limitations of the response threshold models and provide an adequate substitute. Altogether, the experiments presented in this thesis provide novel contributions to the understanding of how division of labour in social insects is influenced by queen mating frequency and genetic architecture underlying worker task thresholds. Moreover, the thesis also provides a novel model of the mechanisms underlying worker task allocation that maybe more generally applicable than the widely used response threshold models. Resumé : La répartition du travail est l'un des aspects les plus fascinants des insectes vivant en société. Une allocation efficace de la multitude de différentes tâches entre individus demande un ajustement dynamique afin de répondre aux exigences d'un environnement en constant changement. Un nombre considérable de modèles théoriques se sont attachés à identifier les mécanismes permettant aux colonies d'effectuer une allocation efficace des tâches. La grande majorité des ces modèles sont basés sur le constat que les individus d'une même colonie diffèrent dans leur propension (inclination à répondre) à effectuer différentes tâches. Etant donné que les individus possédant un faible seuil de réponse à un stimulus associé à une tâche donnée sont plus disposés à effectuer cette dernière que les individus possédant un seuil élevé, les différences de seuils parmi les individus vivant au sein d'une même colonie mènent à une certaine répartition du travail. Ces modèles théoriques suggèrent que la variation des seuils des individus est affectée par la diversité génétique propre à la colonie. Cependant, ces modèles ne considèrent pas la structure génétique qui est à la base des seuils de réponse individuels. Ceci est très important car une meilleure compréhension de la répartition du travail requière de déterminer de quelle manière les variations génotypiques sont associées aux différentes distributions de seuils de réponse à l'intérieur d'une même colonie. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous étudions l'influence combinée de la variabilité génétique d'une colonie (qui prend son origine dans la variation du nombre d'accouplements des reines) avec le nombre de gènes supportant les seuils de réponse, vis-à-vis de la performance de l'allocation des tâches. Nous avons utilisé un simulateur basé sur des agents pour modéliser une situation où les travailleurs d'une colonie devaient accomplir une tâche de régulation (1a quantité d'une nourriture donnée doit être maintenue à l'intérieur d'un certain intervalle) ou une tâche de recherche de nourriture (la quantité d'une certaine nourriture doit être accumulée autant que possible). Dans ce contexte, 'efficacité des colonies tient en partie des travailleurs qui sont capable d'effectuer les deux tâches de manière efficace. Pour étudier l'effet de la diversité génétique d'une colonie, nous comparons l'efficacité des colonies possédant des reines qui s'accouplent avec un nombre variant de mâles. D'autre part, l'influence de la structure génétique a été étudiée en variant le nombre de loci à la base du seuil de réponse des deux tâches de régulation et de recherche de nourriture. Une évolution artificielle a été réalisée pour évoluer les valeurs alléliques qui sont à l'origine de ces seuils de réponse. Les résultats ont révélé que de nombreux accouplements se traduisaient toujours en une plus grande performance de la colonie, quelque soit le nombre de loci encodant les seuils des tâches de régulation et de recherche de nourriture. Cependant, les effets bénéfiques d'accouplements additionnels ont été particulièrement important lorsque la structure génétique des reines comprenait un ou quelques gènes pour le seuil de réponse pour la tâche de recherche de nourriture. D'autre part, un nombre plus élevé de gènes encodant la tâche de recherche de nourriture a diminué la performance de la colonie avec un effet nuisible d'autant plus fort lorsque les reines s'accouplent avec plusieurs mâles. Finalement, le nombre de gènes déterminant le seuil pour la tâche de régulation eu seulement un effet mineur mais incrémental sur la performance de la colonie. Pour conclure, nos expériences numériques révèlent l'importance de considérer les effets associés à la fréquence d'accouplement des reines, à la structure génétique qui est à l'origine des seuils de réponse pour les tâches ainsi qu'au type de tâche effectué au moment d'étudier les facteurs qui régulent l'efficacité de la répartition du travail chez les insectes vivant en communauté. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'efficacité de l'allocation des tâches des modèles prenant en compte des seuils de réponses, et les comparons à des réseaux de neurones. Alors que les modèles basés sur des seuils de réponse sont couramment utilisés parmi les biologistes intéressés par la répartition des tâches chez les insectes vivant en société, notre simulation montre qu'ils se révèlent peu efficace comparé à un modèle faisant usage de réseaux de neurones. Un point faible majeur des seuils de réponse est qu'ils échouent sur un point crucial nécessaire à la répartition des tâches, la capacité des individus d'une colonie à commuter efficacement entre des tâches soumises à des conditions environnementales changeantes. De plus, les propriétés intrinsèques des modèles basés sur l'utilisation de seuils conduisent à de larges populations de travailleurs inactifs. Nos résultats mettent en évidence les limites de ces modèles basés sur l'utilisation de seuils et fournissent un substitut adéquat. Ensemble, les expériences présentées dans cette thèse fournissent de nouvelles contributions pour comprendre comment la répartition du travail chez les insectes vivant en société est influencée par la fréquence d'accouplements des reines ainsi que par la structure génétique qui est à l'origine, pour un travailleur, du seuil de réponse pour une tâche. De plus, cette thèse fournit également un nouveau modèle décrivant les mécanismes qui sont à l'origine de l'allocation des tâches entre travailleurs, mécanismes qui peuvent être appliqué de manière plus générale que ceux couramment utilisés et basés sur des seuils de réponse.

What was your fracture risk evaluated by FRAX(®) the day before your osteoporotic fracture?

Osteoporotic fracture (OF) is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in industrialized countries. Switzerland is among the countries with the greatest risk. Our aim was (1) to calculate the FRAX(®) in a selected Swiss population the day before the occurrence of an OF and (2) to compare the results with the proposed Swiss FRAX(®) thresholds. The Swiss Association Against Osteoporosis proposed guidelines for the treatment of osteoporosis based on age-dependent thresholds. To identify a population at a very high risk of osteoporotic fracture, we included all consecutive patients in the active OF pathway cohort from the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. FRAX(®) was calculated with the available data the day before the actual OF. People with a FRAX(®) body mass index (BMI) or a FRAX(®) (bone mineral density) BMD lower than the Swiss thresholds were not considered at high risk. Two-hundred thirty-seven patients were included with a mean age of 77.2 years, and 80 % were female. Major types of fracture included hip (58 %) and proximal humerus (25 %) fractures. Mean FRAX(®) BMI values were 28.0, 10.0, 13.0, 26.0, and 37.0 % for age groups 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80-89 years old, respectively. Fifty percent of the population was not considered at high risk by the FRAX(®) BMI. FRAX(®) BMD was available for 95 patients, and 45 % had a T score < -2.5 standard deviation. Only 30 % of patients with a normal or osteopenic BMD were classified at high risk by FRAX(®) BMD. The current proposed Swiss thresholds were not able to classify at high risk in 50 to 70 % of the studied population the day before a major OF.

Task-dependent influence of genetic architecture and mating frequency on division of labour in social insect societies.

Division of labour is one of the most prominent features of social insects. The efficient allocation of individuals to different tasks requires dynamic adjustment in response to environmental perturbations. Theoretical models suggest that the colony-level flexibility in responding to external changes and internal perturbation may depend on the within-colony genetic diversity, which is affected by the number of breeding individuals. However, these models have not considered the genetic architecture underlying the propensity of workers to perform the various tasks. Here, we investigated how both within-colony genetic variability (stemming from variation in the number of matings by queens) and the number of genes influencing the stimulus (threshold) for a given task at which workers begin to perform that task jointly influence task allocation efficiency. We used a numerical agent-based model to investigate the situation where workers had to perform either a regulatory task or a foraging task. One hundred generations of artificial selection in populations consisting of 500 colonies revealed that an increased number of matings always improved colony performance, whatever the number of loci encoding the thresholds of the regulatory and foraging tasks. However, the beneficial effect of additional matings was particularly important when the genetic architecture of queens comprised one or a few genes for the foraging task's threshold. By contrast, a higher number of genes encoding the foraging task reduced colony performance with the detrimental effect being stronger when queens had mated with several males. Finally, the number of genes encoding the threshold for the regulatory task only had a minor effect on colony performance. Overall, our numerical experiments support the importance of mating frequency on efficiency of division of labour and also reveal complex interactions between the number of matings and genetic architecture.

Comparison of application of the ACC/AHA guidelines, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and European Society of Cardiology guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention in a European cohort.

IMPORTANCE: The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines introduced a prediction model and lowered the threshold for treatment with statins to a 7.5% 10-year hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Implications of the new guideline's threshold and model have not been addressed in non-US populations or compared with previous guidelines. OBJECTIVE: To determine population-wide implications of the ACC/AHA, the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III), and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines using a cohort of Dutch individuals aged 55 years or older. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We included 4854 Rotterdam Study participants recruited in 1997-2001. We calculated 10-year risks for "hard" ASCVD events (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease [CHD] and stroke) (ACC/AHA), hard CHD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, CHD mortality) (ATP-III), and atherosclerotic CVD mortality (ESC). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Events were assessed until January 1, 2012. Per guideline, we calculated proportions of individuals for whom statins would be recommended and determined calibration and discrimination of risk models. RESULTS: The mean age was 65.5 (SD, 5.2) years. Statins would be recommended for 96.4% (95% CI, 95.4%-97.1%; n = 1825) of men and 65.8% (95% CI, 63.8%-67.7%; n = 1523) of women by the ACC/AHA, 52.0% (95% CI, 49.8%-54.3%; n = 985) of men and 35.5% (95% CI, 33.5%-37.5%; n = 821) of women by the ATP-III, and 66.1% (95% CI, 64.0%-68.3%; n = 1253) of men and 39.1% (95% CI, 37.1%-41.2%; n = 906) of women by ESC guidelines. With the ACC/AHA model, average predicted risk vs observed cumulative incidence of hard ASCVD events was 21.5% (95% CI, 20.9%-22.1%) vs 12.7% (95% CI, 11.1%-14.5%) for men (192 events) and 11.6% (95% CI, 11.2%-12.0%) vs 7.9% (95% CI, 6.7%-9.2%) for women (151 events). Similar overestimation occurred with the ATP-III model (98 events in men and 62 events in women) and ESC model (50 events in men and 37 events in women). The C statistic was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71) in men and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73) in women for hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in men and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) in women for hard CHD (ATP-III), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) in men and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) in women for CVD mortality (ESC). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this European population aged 55 years or older, proportions of individuals eligible for statins differed substantially among the guidelines. The ACC/AHA guideline would recommend statins for nearly all men and two-thirds of women, proportions exceeding those with the ATP-III or ESC guidelines. All 3 risk models provided poor calibration and moderate to good discrimination. Improving risk predictions and setting appropriate population-wide thresholds are necessary to facilitate better clinical decision making.

Topics in public finance: social security and taxation

Summary The field of public finance focuses on the spending and taxing activities of governments and their influence on the allocation of resources and distribution of income. This work covers in three parts different topics related to public finance which are currently widely discussed in media and politics. The first two parts deal with issues on social security, which is in general one of the biggest spending shares of governments. The third part looks at the main income source of governments by analyzing the perceived value of tax competition. Part one deals with the current problem of increased early retirement by focusing on Switzerland as a special case. Early retirement is predominantly considered to be the result of incentives set by social security and the tax system. But the Swiss example demonstrates that the incidence of early retirement has dramatically increased even in the absence of institutional changes. We argue that the wealth effect also plays an important role in the retirement decision for middle and high income earners. An actuarially fair, but mandatory funded system with a relatively high replacement rate may thus contribute to a low labor market participation rate of elderly workers. We provide evidence using a unique dataset on individual retirement decisions in Swiss pension funds, allowing us to perfectly control for pension scheme details. Our findings suggest that affordability is a key determinant in the retirement decisions. The higher the accumulated pension capital, the earlier men, and to a smaller extent women, tend to leave the workforce. The fact that early retirement has become much more prevalent in the last 15 years is a further indicator of the importance of a wealth effect, as the maturing of the Swiss mandatory funded pension system over that period has led to an increase in the effective replacement rates for middle and high income earners. Part two covers the theoretical side of social security. Theories analyzing optimal social security benefits provide important qualitative results, by mainly using one general type of an economy. Economies are however very diverse concerning numerous aspects, one of the most important being the wealth level. This can lead to significant quantitative benefit differences that imply differences in replacement rates and levels of labor supply. We focus on several aspects related to this fact. In a within cohort social security model, we introduce disability insurance with an imperfect screening mechanism. We then vary the wealth level of the model economy and analyze how the optimal social security benefit structure or equivalently, the optimal replacement rates, changes depending on the wealth level of the economy, and if the introduction of disability insurance into a social security system is preferable for all economies. Second, the screening mechanism of disability insurance and the threshold level at which people are defined as disabled can differ. For economies with different wealth levels, we determine for different thresholds the screening level that maximizes social welfare. Finally, part three turns to the income of governments, by adding an element to the controversy on tax competition versus tax harmonization.2 Inter-jurisdictional tax competition can generate at least two potential benefits or costs: On a public level, tax competition may result in a lower or higher efficiency in the production of public services. But there is also a more private benefit in the form of an option for individuals to move to a community with a lower tax rate in the future. To explore the value citizens attach to tax competition we analyze a unique popular vote for a complete tax harmonization between communities in the third largest Swiss canton, Vaud. Although a majority of voters would have seemingly benefited from replacing the current tax rate by a revenue-neutral average tax rate, the proposal was rejected by a large margin. Our estimates suggest that the estimated combined perceived benefit from tax competition is in the range of 10%.