Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level.

This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis - that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home - is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice.

Weekend versus weekday admission and mortality after acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) requires medical expertise, diagnostic testing, and therapies that may not be available consistently throughout the entire week. We sought to assess whether associations exist between weekday or weekend admission and mortality and length of hospital stay for patients hospitalized with PE. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated patients discharged with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania (January 2000 to November 2002). We used random-effect logistic models to study the association between weekend admission and 30-day mortality and used discrete survival models to study the association between weekend admission and time to hospital discharge, adjusting for hospital (region, size, and teaching status) and patient factors (race, insurance, severity of illness, and use of thrombolytic therapy). Among 15 531 patient discharges with PE, 3286 patients (21.2%) had been admitted on a weekend. Patients admitted on weekends had a higher unadjusted 30-day mortality rate (11.1% versus 8.8%) than patients admitted on weekdays, with no difference in length of stay. Patients admitted on weekends had significantly greater adjusted odds of dying (odds ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.34) than patients admitted on weekdays. The higher mortality among patients hospitalized on weekends was driven by the increased mortality rate among the most severely ill patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PE who are admitted on weekends have a significantly higher short-term mortality than patients admitted on weekdays. Quality-improvement efforts should aim to ensure a consistent approach to the management of PE 7 days a week.

Assessment of left coronary artery beat-to-beat repositioning in order to propose an optimal acquisition window for coronary MRA

Introduction: Coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) is a medical imaging technique that involves collecting data from consecutive heartbeats, always at the same time in the cardiac cycle, in order to minimize heart motion artifacts. This technique relies on the assumption that coronary arteries always follow the same trajectory from heartbeat to heartbeat. Until now, choosing the acquisition window in the cardiac cycle was based exclusively on the position of minimal coronary motion. The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that there are time intervals during the cardiac cycle when coronary beat-to-beat repositioning is optimal. The repositioning uncertainty values in these time intervals were then compared with the intervals of low coronary motion in order to propose an optimal acquisition window for coronary MRA. Methods: Cine breath-hold x-ray angiograms with synchronous ECG were collected from 11 patients who underwent elective routine diagnostic coronarography. Twenty-three bifurcations of the left coronary artery were selected as markers to evaluate repositioning uncertainty and velocity during cardiac cycle. Each bifurcation was tracked by two observers, with the help of a user-assisted algorithm implemented in Matlab (The Mathworks, Natick, MA, USA) that compared the trajectories of the markers coming from consecutive heartbeats and computed the coronary repositioning uncertainty with steps of 50ms until 650ms after the R-wave. Repositioning uncertainty was defined as the diameter of the smallest circle encompassing the points to be compared at the same time after the R-wave. Student's t-tests with a false discovery rate (FDR, q=0.1) correction for multiple comparison were applied to see whether coronary repositioning and velocity vary statistically during cardiac cycle. Bland-Altman plots and linear regression were used to assess intra- and inter-observer agreement. Results: The analysis of left coronary artery beat-to-beat repositioning uncertainty shows a tendency to have better repositioning in mid systole (less than 0.84±0.58mm) and mid diastole (less than 0.89±0.6mm) than in the rest of the cardiac cycle (highest value at 50ms=1.35±0.64mm). According to Student's t-tests with FDR correction for multiple comparison (q=0.1), two intervals, in mid systole (150-200ms) and mid diastole (550-600ms), provide statistically better repositioning in comparison with the early systole and the early diastole. Coronary velocity analysis reveals that left coronary artery moves more slowly in end systole (14.35±11.35mm/s at 225ms) and mid diastole (11.78±11.62mm/s at 625ms) than in the rest of the cardiac cycle (highest value at 25ms: 55.96±22.34mm/s). This was confirmed by Student's t-tests with FDR correction for multiple comparison (q=0.1, FDR-corrected p-value=0.054): coronary velocity values at 225, 575 and 625ms are not much different between them but they are statistically inferior to all others. Bland-Altman plots and linear regression show that intra-observer agreement (y=0.97x+0.02 with R²=0.93 at 150ms) is better than inter-observer (y=0.8x+0.11 with R²=0.67 at 150ms). Discussion: The present study has demonstrated that there are two time intervals in the cardiac cycle, one in mid systole and one in mid diastole, where left coronary artery repositioning uncertainty reaches points of local minima. It has also been calculated that the velocity is the lowest in end systole and mid diastole. Since systole is less influenced by heart rate variability than diastole, it was finally proposed to test an acquisition window between 150 and 200ms after the R-wave.

Measuring an effect size from dichotomized data : contrasted results whether using a correlation or an odds-ratio

It is well known that dichotomizing continuous data has the effect to decrease statistical power when the goal is to test for a statistical association between two variables. Modern researchers however are focusing not only on statistical significance but also on an estimation of the "effect size" (i.e., the strength of association between the variables) to judge whether a significant association is also clinically relevant. In this article, we are interested in the consequences of dichotomizing continuous data on the value of an effect size in some classical settings. It turns out that the conclusions will not be the same whether using a correlation or an odds ratio to summarize the strength of association between the variables: Whereas the value of a correlation is typically decreased by a factor pi/2 after each dichotomization, the value of an odds ratio is at the same time raised to the power 2. From a descriptive statistical point of view, it is thus not clear whether dichotomizing continuous data leads to a decrease or to an increase in the effect size, as illustrated using a data set to investigate the relationship between motor and intellectual functions in children and adolescents

Sulfur isotope analysis of cinnabar from Roman wall paintings by elemental analysis/isotope ratio mass spectrometry - tracking the origin of archaeological red pigments and their authenticity

The most valuable pigment of the Roman wall paintings was the red color obtained from powdered cinnabar (Minium Cinnabaris pigment), the red mercury sulfide (HgS), which was brought from mercury (Hg) deposits in the Roman Empire. To address the question of whether sulfur isotope signatures can serve as a rapid method to establish the provenance of the red pigment in Roman frescoes, we have measured the sulfur isotope composition (delta(34) S value in parts per thousand VCDT) in samples of wall painting from the Roman city Aventicum (Avenches, Vaud, Switzerland) and compared them with values from cinnabar from European mercury deposits (Almaden in Spain, Idria in Slovenia, Monte Amiata in Italy, Moschellandsberg in Germany, and Genepy in France). Our study shows that the delta(34) S values of cinnabar from the studied Roman wall paintings fall within or near to the composition of Almaden cinnabar; thus, the provenance of the raw material may be deduced. This approach may provide information on provenance and authenticity in archaeological, restoration and forensic studies of Roman and Greek frescoes. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Right-left digit ratio (2D:4D) and maximal oxygen uptake.

A low digit ratio (2D:4D) and low 2D:4D in the right compared with the left hand (right-left 2D:4D) are thought to be determined by high in utero concentrations of testosterone, and are related to "masculine" traits such as aggression and performance in sports like running and rugby. Low right-left 2D:4D is also related to sensitivity to testosterone as measured by the number of cytosine-adenine-guanine triplet repeats in exon 1 of the androgen receptor gene. Here we show that low right-left 2D:4D is associated with high maximal oxygen uptake (VO2(max)), high velocity at VO2(max), and high maximum lactate concentration in a sample of teenage boys. We suggest that low right-left 2D:4D is linked to performance in some sports because it is a proxy of high sensitivity to prenatal and maybe also circulating testosterone and high VO2(max).

Urinary analysis of 16(5alpha)-androsten-3alpha-ol by gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry: implications in anti-doping analysis.

We present a method for the analysis of urinary 16(5alpha)-androsten-3alpha-ol together with 5beta-pregnane-3alpha,20alpha-diol and four testosterone metabolites: androsterone (Andro), etiocholanolone (Etio), 5alpha-androstane-3alpha,17beta-diol (5alphaA), 5beta-androstane-3alpha,17beta-diol (5betaA) by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotopic ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS). The within-assay and between-assay precision S.D.s of the investigated steroids were lower than 0.3 and 0.6 per thousand, respectively. A comparative study on a population composed of 20 subjects has shown that the differences of the intra-individual delta(13)C-values for 16(5alpha)-androsten-3alpha-ol and 5beta-pregnane-3alpha,20alpha-diol are less than 0.9 per thousand. Thereafter, the method has been applied in the frame of an excretion study following oral ingestion of 50 mg DHEA initially and oral ingestion of 50mg pregnenolone 48 h later. Our findings show that administration of DHEA does not affect the isotopic ratio values of 16(5alpha)-androsten-3alpha-ol and 5beta-pregnane-3alpha,20alpha-diol, whereas the isotopic ratio values of 5beta-pregnane-3alpha,20alpha-diol vary by more 5 per thousand upon ingestion of pregnenolone. We have observed delta(13)C-value changes lower than 1 per thousand for 16(5alpha)-androsten-3alpha-ol, though pregnenolone is a precursor of the 16-ene steroids. In contrast to 5beta-pregnane-3alpha,20alpha-diol, the 16-ene steroid may be used as an endogenous reference compound when pregnenolone is administered.

Trial of recombinant follicle-stimulating hormone pretreatment for gnrh-induced fertility in patients with congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism.

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: The optimal strategy for inducing fertility in men with congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (CHH) is equivocal. Albeit a biologically plausible approach, pretreatment with recombinant FSH (rFSH) before GnRH/human chorionic gonadotropin administration has not been sufficiently assessed. The objective of the study was to test this method. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a randomized, open-label treatment protocol at an academic medical center. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: GnRH-deficient men (CHH) with prepubertal testes (<4 mL), no cryptorchidism, and no prior gonadotropin therapy were randomly assigned to either 24 months of pulsatile GnRH therapy alone (inducing endogenous LH and FSH release) or 4 months of rFSH pretreatment followed by 24 months of GnRH therapy. Patients underwent serial testicular biopsies, ultrasound assessments of testicular volume, serum hormone measurements, and seminal fluid analyses. RESULTS: rFSH treatment increased inhibin B levels into the normal range (from 29 ± 9 to 107 ± 41 pg/mL, P < .05) and doubled testicular volume (from 1.1 ± 0.2 to 2.2 ± 0.3 mL, P < .005). Histological analysis showed proliferation of both Sertoli cells (SCs) and spermatogonia, a decreased SC to germ cell ratio (from 0.74 to 0.35), and SC cytoskeletal rearrangements. With pulsatile GnRH, the groups had similar hormonal responses and exhibited significant testicular growth. All men receiving rFSH pretreatment developed sperm in their ejaculate (7 of 7 vs 4 of 6 in the GnRH-only group) and showed trends toward higher maximal sperm counts. CONCLUSIONS: rFSH pretreatment followed by GnRH is successful in inducing testicular growth and fertility in men with CHH with prepubertal testes. rFSH not only appears to maximize the SC population but also induces morphologic changes, suggesting broader developmental roles.

Validation and performance comparison of two carbon isotope ratio methods to control the misuse of androgens in humans.

Carbon isotope ratio of androgens in urine specimens is routinely determined to exclude an abuse of testosterone or testosterone prohormones by athletes. Increasing application of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) in the last years for target and systematic investigations on samples has resulted in the demand for rapid sample throughput as well as high selectivity in the extraction process particularly in the case of conspicuous samples. For that purpose, we present herein the complimentary use of an SPE-based assay and an HPLC fractionation method as a two-stage strategy for the isolation of testosterone metabolites and endogenous reference compounds prior to GC/C/IRMS analyses. Assays validation demonstrated acceptable performance in terms of intermediate precision (range: 0.1-0.4 per thousand) and Bland-Altman analyses revealed no significant bias (0.2 per thousand). For further validation of this two-stage analyses strategy, all the specimens (n=124) collected during a major sport event were processed.

Low-dose multidetector computed tomography of the cervical spine: optimization of iterative reconstruction strength levels.

BACKGROUND: Iterative reconstruction (IR) techniques reduce image noise in multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) imaging. They can therefore be used to reduce radiation dose while maintaining diagnostic image quality nearly constant. However, CT manufacturers offer several strength levels of IR to choose from. PURPOSE: To determine the optimal strength level of IR in low-dose MDCT of the cervical spine. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Thirty consecutive patients investigated by low-dose cervical spine MDCT were prospectively studied. Raw data were reconstructed using filtered back-projection and sinogram-affirmed IR (SAFIRE, strength levels 1 to 5) techniques. Image noise, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) were measured at C3-C4 and C6-C7 levels. Two radiologists independently and blindly evaluated various anatomical structures (both dense and soft tissues) using a 4-point scale. They also rated the overall diagnostic image quality using a 10-point scale. RESULTS: As IR strength levels increased, image noise decreased linearly, while SNR and CNR both increased linearly at C3-C4 and C6-C7 levels (P < 0.001). For the intervertebral discs, the content of neural foramina and dural sac, and for the ligaments, subjective image quality scores increased linearly with increasing IR strength level (P ≤ 0.03). Conversely, for the soft tissues and trabecular bone, the scores decreased linearly with increasing IR strength level (P < 0.001). Finally, the overall diagnostic image quality scores increased linearly with increasing IR strength level (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The optimal strength level of IR in low-dose cervical spine MDCT depends on the anatomical structure to be analyzed. For the intervertebral discs and the content of neural foramina, high strength levels of IR are recommended.

Practical signal-to-noise ratio quantification for sensitivity encoding: Application to coronary MR angiography.

Purpose: To develop and evaluate a practical method for the quantification of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) on coronary MR angiograms (MRA) acquired with parallel imaging.Materials and Methods: To quantify the spatially varying noise due to parallel imaging reconstruction, a new method has been implemented incorporating image data acquisition followed by a fast noise scan during which radio-frequency pulses, cardiac triggering and navigator gating are disabled. The performance of this method was evaluated in a phantom study where SNR measurements were compared with those of a reference standard (multiple repetitions). Subsequently, SNR of myocardium and posterior skeletal muscle was determined on in vivo human coronary MRA.Results: In a phantom, the SNR measured using the proposed method deviated less than 10.1% from the reference method for small geometry factors (<= 2). In vivo, the noise scan for a 10 min coronary MRA acquisition was acquired in 30 s. Higher signal and lower SNR, due to spatially varying noise, were found in myocardium compared with posterior skeletal muscle.Conclusion: SNR quantification based on a fast noise scan is a validated and easy-to-use method when applied to three-dimensional coronary MRA obtained with parallel imaging as long as the geometry factor remains low.

On optimal learning schedules and the marginal value of cumulative cultural evolution.

The age-dependent choice between expressing individual learning (IL) or social learning (SL) affects cumulative cultural evolution. A learning schedule in which SL precedes IL is supportive of cumulative culture because the amount of nongenetically encoded adaptive information acquired by previous generations can be absorbed by an individual and augmented. Devoting time and energy to learning, however, reduces the resources available for other life-history components. Learning schedules and life history thus coevolve. Here, we analyze a model where individuals may have up to three distinct life stages: "infants" using IL or oblique SL, "juveniles" implementing IL or horizontal SL, and adults obtaining material resources with learned information. We study the dynamic allocation of IL and SL within life stages and how this coevolves with the length of the learning stages. Although no learning may be evolutionary stable, we find conditions where cumulative cultural evolution can be selected for. In that case, the evolutionary stable learning schedule causes individuals to use oblique SL during infancy and a mixture between IL and horizontal SL when juvenile. We also find that the selected pattern of oblique SL increases the amount of information in the population, but horizontal SL does not do so.

Between-year variation in population sex ratio increases with complexity of the breeding system in Hymenoptera.

While adaptive adjustment of sex ratio in the function of colony kin structure and food availability commonly occurs in social Hymenoptera, long-term studies have revealed substantial unexplained between-year variation in sex ratio at the population level. In order to identify factors that contribute to increased between-year variation in population sex ratio, we conducted a comparative analysis across 47 Hymenoptera species differing in their breeding system. We found that between-year variation in population sex ratio steadily increased as one moved from solitary species, to primitively eusocial species, to single-queen eusocial species, to multiple-queen eusocial species. Specifically, between-year variation in population sex ratio was low (6.6% of total possible variation) in solitary species, which is consistent with the view that in solitary species, sex ratio can vary only in response to fluctuations in ecological factors such as food availability. In contrast, we found significantly higher (19.5%) between-year variation in population sex ratio in multiple-queen eusocial species, which supports the view that in these species, sex ratio can also fluctuate in response to temporal changes in social factors such as queen number and queen-worker control over sex ratio, as well as factors influencing caste determination. The simultaneous adjustment of sex ratio in response to temporal fluctuations in ecological and social factors seems to preclude the existence of a single sex ratio optimum. The absence of such an optimum may reflect an additional cost associated with the evolution of complex breeding systems in Hymenoptera societies.