The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

Basin-internal derivation of hydrocarbons in the Witwatersrand Basin, South Africa: evidence from bulk and molecular δ13C data

Gold in the quartz-pebble conglomerates of the late Archean Witwatersrand Basin, South Africa, is often intimately associated with carbonaceous matter of organic/biogenic origin which occurs in the form of stratiform carbon seams and paragenetically late bitumen nodules. Both carbon forms are believed to be formed by solidification of migrating hydrocarbons. This paper presents bulk and molecular chemical and stable carbon isotope data for the carbonaceous matter, all of which are used to provide a clue to the source of the hydrocarbons. These data are compared with those from intra-basinal shales and overlying dolostone of the Transvaal Supergroup. The delta C-13 values of the extracts from the Witwatersrand carbonaceous material show small differences (up to 2.4 parts per thousand) compared to the associated insoluble organic matter. This suggests that the auriferous rocks were stained by mobile hydrocarbons produced by thermal and oxidative alteration of indigenous bitumens, a contribution from hydrocarbons derived from intra-basinal Witwatersrand shales cannot be excluded. Individual aliphatic hydrocarbons of the various carbonaceous materials were subjected to compound specific isotope analysis using on-line gas chromatography/combustion/stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS). The limited variability of the molecular parameters and uniform delta C-13 values of individual n-alkanes (-31.1 +/- 1.7 parts per thousand) and isoprenoids (-30.7 +/- 1.1 parts per thousand) in the Witwatersrand samples exclude the mixing of oils from different sources. Carbonaceous matter in the dolostones shows distinctly different bulk and molecular isotope characteristics and thus cannot have been the source of the hydrocarbons in the Witwatersrand deposits. All the various forms of Witwatersrand carbon appear indigenous to the Witwatersrand Basin, and the differences between them are explained by variable, in general probably short (centimeter- to meter-scale) hydrocarbon migration during diagenesis and subsequent hydrothermal infiltration. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

An interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis: a case study in the Fella River basin, Italy

This paper presents a prototype of an interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis of natural hazards, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source geospatial software and technologies. The aim of the presented tool is to assist the experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, providing an essential input to the decision-making process in the selection of risk management strategies by responsible authorities and decision makers. This tool is based on the Boundless (OpenGeo Suite) framework and its client-side environment for prototype development, and it is one of the main modules of a web-based collaborative decision support platform in risk management. Within this platform, the users can import necessary maps and information to analyse areas at risk. Based on provided information and parameters, loss scenarios (amount of damages and number of fatalities) of a hazard event are generated on the fly and visualized interactively within the web-GIS interface of the platform. The annualized risk is calculated based on the combination of resultant loss scenarios with different return periods of the hazard event. The application of this developed prototype is demonstrated using a regional data set from one of the case study sites, Fella River of northeastern Italy, of the Marie Curie ITN CHANGES project.