Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

Novel testis germ cell-specific transcript of the CREB gene contains an alternatively spliced exon with multiple in-frame stop codons.

The gene encoding the cAMP-responsive transcription factor CREB consists of multiple small exons some of which undergo alternative RNA splicing. We describe the finding of a novel transcript of the CREB gene expressed at high levels in the germ cells of the rat testis. The transcript contains an alternatively spliced exon inserted within the sequence encoding the transcriptional transactivation domain of CREB and this exon contains multiple in-frame stop codons. Furthermore, the exon is conserved in both rat and human genes (75% nucleotide identity). Although the function(s) of this RNA or the truncated CREB protein predicted to result from the translation of this unusual transcript is unknown, the high level of expression in the testicular germ cells and remarkable conservation of sequences in rat and human suggests that it may have a unique biological function in these cells.

Spatial predictions of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making.

Considering genetic relatedness among species has long been argued as an important step toward measuring biological diversity more accurately, rather than relying solely on species richness. Some researchers have correlated measures of phylogenetic diversity and species richness across a series of sites and suggest that values of phylogenetic diversity do not differ enough from those of species richness to justify their inclusion in conservation planning. We compared predictions of species richness and 10 measures of phylogenetic diversity by creating distribution models for 168 individual species of a species-rich plant family, the Cape Proteaceae. When we used average amounts of land set aside for conservation to compare areas selected on the basis of species richness with areas selected on the basis of phylogenetic diversity, correlations between species richness and different measures of phylogenetic diversity varied considerably. Correlations between species richness and measures that were based on the length of phylogenetic tree branches and tree shape were weaker than those that were based on tree shape alone. Elevation explained up to 31% of the segregation of species rich versus phylogenetically rich areas. Given these results, the increased availability of molecular data, and the known ecological effect of phylogenetically rich communities, consideration of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making may be feasible and informative.

Monophyletic origin of multiple clonal lineages in an asexual fish (Poecilia formosa).

Despite the advantage of avoiding the costs of sexual reproduction, asexual vertebrates are very rare and often considered evolutionarily disadvantaged when compared to sexual species. Asexual species, however, may have advantages when colonizing (new) habitats or competing with sexual counterparts. They are also evolutionary older than expected, leaving the question whether asexual vertebrates are not only rare because of their 'inferior' mode of reproduction but also because of other reasons. A paradigmatic model system is the unisexual Amazon molly, Poecilia formosa, that arose by hybridization of the Atlantic molly, Poecilia mexicana, as the maternal ancestor, and the sailfin molly, Poecilia latipinna, as the paternal ancestor. Our extensive crossing experiments failed to resynthesize asexually reproducing (gynogenetic) hybrids confirming results of previous studies. However, by producing diploid eggs, female F(1) -hybrids showed apparent preadaptation to gynogenesis. In a range-wide analysis of mitochondrial sequences, we examined the origin of P. formosa. Our analyses point to very few or even a single origin(s) of its lineage, which is estimated to be approximately 120,000 years old. A monophyletic origin was supported from nuclear microsatellite data. Furthermore, a considerable degree of genetic variation, apparent by high levels of clonal microsatellite diversity, was found. Our molecular phylogenetic evidence and the failure to resynthesize the gynogenetic P. formosa together with the old age of the species indicate that some unisexual vertebrates might be rare not because they suffer the long-term consequences of clonal reproduction but because they are only very rarely formed as a result of complex genetic preconditions necessary to produce viable and fertile clonal genomes and phenotypes ('rare formation hypothesis').

Identifying genetic signatures of selection in a non-model species, alpine gentian (Gentiana nivalis L.), using a landscape genetic approach

It is generally accepted that most plant populations are locally adapted. Yet, understanding how environmental forces give rise to adaptive genetic variation is a challenge in conservation genetics and crucial to the preservation of species under rapidly changing climatic conditions. Environmental variation, phylogeographic history, and population demographic processes all contribute to spatially structured genetic variation, however few current models attempt to separate these confounding effects. To illustrate the benefits of using a spatially-explicit model for identifying potentially adaptive loci, we compared outlier locus detection methods with a recently-developed landscape genetic approach. We analyzed 157 loci from samples of the alpine herb Gentiana nivalis collected across the European Alps. Principle coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), eigenvectors that quantify multi-scale spatial variation present in a data set, were incorporated into a landscape genetic approach relating AFLP frequencies with 23 environmental variables. Four major findings emerged. 1) Fifteen loci were significantly correlated with at least one predictor variable (R (adj) (2) > 0.5). 2) Models including PCNM variables identified eight more potentially adaptive loci than models run without spatial variables. 3) When compared to outlier detection methods, the landscape genetic approach detected four of the same loci plus 11 additional loci. 4) Temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were the three major environmental factors driving potentially adaptive genetic variation in G. nivalis. Techniques presented in this paper offer an efficient method for identifying potentially adaptive genetic variation and associated environmental forces of selection, providing an important step forward for the conservation of non-model species under global change.

Nest-box design for the study of diurnal raptors and owls is still an overlooked point in ecological, evolutionary and conservation studies: a review

The use of artificial nest-boxes has led to significant progress in bird conservation and in our understanding of the functional and evolutionary ecology of free-ranging birds that exploit cavities for roosting and reproduction. Nest-boxes and their improved accessibility have made it easier to perform comparative and experimental field investigations. However, concerns about the generality and applicability of scientific studies involving birds breeding in nest-boxes have been raised because the occupants of boxes may differ from conspecifics occupying other nest sites. Here we review the existing evidence demonstrating the importance of nest-box design to individual life-history traits in three falcon (Falconiformes) and seven owl (Strigiformes) species, as well as the extent to which publications on these birds describe the characteristics of exploited artificial nest-boxes in their 'methods' sections. More than 60% of recent publications did not provide any details on nest-box design (e.g. size, shape, material), despite several calls >15 years ago to increase the reporting of such information. We exemplify and discuss how variation in nest-box characteristics can affect or confound conclusions from nest-box studies and conclude that it is of overall importance to present details of nest-box characteristics in scientific publications.

Cleusonite, (Pb,Sr)(U4+,U6+)(Fe2+ Zn)2(Ti,Fe2+ Fe3+)18(O,OH)38, a new mineral species of the crichtonite group from the western Swiss Alps

Cleusonite, (Pb,Sr)(U4+,U6+) (Fe2+,Zn)(2) (Ti,Fe2+,Fe3+)(18) (O,OH)(38), is a new member of the crichtonite group. It was found at two occurrences in greenschist facies metamorphosed gneissic series of the Mont Fort and Siviez-Mischabel Nappes in Valais, Switzerland (Cleuson and Bella Tolla summit), and named after the type locality. It occurs as black opaque cm-sized tabular crystals with a bright sub-metallic lustre. The crystals consist of multiple rhombohedra and hexagonal prisms that are generally twinned. Measured density is 4.74(4) g/cm(3) and can be corrected to 4.93(12) g/cm(3) for macroscopic swelling due to radiation damage; the calculated density varies from 5.02(6) (untreated) to 5.27(5) (heat-treated crystals); the difference is related to the cell swelling due to the metamictisation. The empirical formula for cleusonite from Cleuson is (Pb0.89Sr0.12)(Sigma=1.01) (U0.79+4U0.30+6)(Sigma=1.09) (Fe1.91+2Zn0.09)(Sigma=2.00) (Ti11.80Fe3.44+2Fe2.33+3V0.19+5Mn0.08Al0.07)(Sigma=17.90) [O-35.37(OH)(2.63)](Sigma=38). Cations were measured by electron microprobe, the presence of structural (OH) was confirmed by infrared spectroscopy and the U6+/U4+ and Fe2+/Fe3+ ratios were determined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Cleusonite is partly metamict, and untreated crystals only show three major X-ray diffraction peaks. Because of this radiation-damaged state, the mineral appears optically isotropic and shows a light-grey to white colour in reflected polarized light. Cleusonite is trigonal, space group R $(3) over bar $, and unit-cell parameters are varying from a = 10.576(3), c = 21.325(5) angstrom (untreated crystal) to a = 10.4188(6), c = 20.942(1) angstrom (800 degrees C treatment) and to a = 10.385(2), c = 20.900(7) angstrom (1000 degrees C treatment). The three cells give a common axial ratio 2.01 (1), which is identical to the measured morphological one 2.04(6). ne name cleusonite also applies to the previously described ``uranium-rich senaite'' from Alinci (Macedonia) and the ``plumbodavidite'' from Huanglongpu (China).

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

Multiple refugia and barriers explain the phylogeography of the Valais shrew, Sorex antinorii (Mammalia: Soricomorpha), Sorex antinorii (Mammalia: Soricomorpha)

The aim of the present study was to investigate the genetic structure of the Valais shrew (Sorex antinorii) by a combined phylogeographical and landscape genetic approach, and thereby to infer the locations of glacial refugia and establish the influence of geographical barriers. We sequenced part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cyt b) gene of 179 individuals of S. antinorii sampled across the entire species' range. Six specimens attributed to S. arunchi were included in the analysis. The phylogeographical pattern was assessed by Bayesian molecular phylogenetic reconstruction, population genetic analyses, and a species distribution modelling (SDM)-based hindcasting approach. We also used landscape genetics (including isolation-by-resistance) to infer the determinants of current intra-specific genetic structure. The phylogeographical analysis revealed shallow divergence among haplotypes and no clear substructure within S. antinorii. The starlike structure of the median-joining network is consistent with population expansion from a single refugium, probably located in the Apennines. Long branches observed on the same network also suggest that another refugium may have existed in the north-eastern part of Italy. This result is consistent with SDM, which also suggests several habitable areas for S. antinorii in the Italian peninsula during the LGM. Therefore S. antinorii appears to have occupied disconnected glacial refugia in the Italian peninsula, supporting previous data for other species showing multiple refugia within southern refugial areas. By coupling genetic analyses and SDM, we were able to infer how past climatic suitability contributed to genetic divergence of populations. The genetic differentiation shown in the present study does not support the specific status of S. arunchi.

Multiple adenosine 3',5'-cyclic [corrected] monophosphate response element DNA-binding proteins generated by gene diversification and alternative exon splicing.

The protein sequence deduced from the open reading frame of a human placental cDNA encoding a cAMP-responsive enhancer (CRE)-binding protein (CREB-327) has structural features characteristic of several other transcriptional transactivator proteins including jun, fos, C/EBP, myc, and CRE-BP1. Results of Southwestern analysis of nuclear extracts from several different cell lines show that there are multiple CRE-binding proteins, which vary in size in cell lines derived from different tissues and animal species. To examine the molecular diversity of CREB-327 and related proteins at the nucleic acid level, we used labeled cDNAs from human placenta that encode two different CRE-binding proteins (CREB-327 and CRE-BP1) to probe Northern and Southern blots. Both probes hybridized to multiple fragments on Southern blots of genomic DNA from various species. Alternatively, when a human placental c-jun probe was hybridized to the same blot, a single fragment was detected in most cases, consistent with the intronless nature of the human c-jun gene. The CREB-327 probe hybridized to multiple mRNAs, derived from human placenta, ranging in size from 2-9 kilobases. In contrast, the CRE-BP1 probe identified a single 4-kilobase mRNA. Sequence analyses of several overlapping human genomic cosmid clones containing CREB-327 sequences in conjunction with polymerase chain reaction indicates that the CREB-327/341 cDNAs are composed of at least eight or nine exons, and analyses of human placental cDNAs provide direct evidence for at least one alternatively spliced exon. Analyses of mouse/hamster-human hybridoma DNAs by Southern blotting and polymerase chain reaction localizes the CREB-327/341 gene to human chromosome 2. The results indicate that there is a dichotomy of CREB-like proteins, those that are related by overall structure and DNA-binding specificity as well as those that are related by close similarities of primary sequences.

Winter habitat selection by two sympatric forest grouse in western Switzerland: implications for conservation

Two endangered tetraonids, the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia rupestris), are sympatric throughout part of their distribution range in central Europe. Precise information on their specific habitat requirements is needed if the coexistence of both species in exploited forests is to be maintained. We quantified winter habitat selection for both species in the upper part (1100-1600 m) of the Jura mountains (Switzerland). No preference for altitude or exposure could be detected. Capercaillie preferred open forests (including grazed forests) with a sparse canopy dominated by spruce (Picea abies) and fir (Abies alba), and avoided dense undercanopy and understorey, especially when dominated by spruce and beech (Fagus sylvatica). By contrast, hazel grouse preferred feeding sites with a dense understorey of rowan (Sorbus aucuparia), willow (Salix sp.), beech and spruce. These preferences can be related to the feeding habits and predator avoidance behaviour of both species. Coexistence thus requires a mosaic distribution of habitat types, with a matrix of open forests (30% canopy cover) where fir is favoured, and understorey kept sparse (20%). Group-cuts of mature trees should allow regeneration patches, where a dense understorey (50% cover) should provide suitable habitats for hazel grouse

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Hierarchic species-area relationships and the management of forest habitat islands in intensive farmland

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.