Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions

1. Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although some factors probably have negligible effects compared to others, their relative effects are largely unknown. 2. We introduce a general "virtual ecologist" framework to study the relative importance of factors involved in the construction of species distribution models. 3. We illustrate the framework by examining the relative importance of five key factors-a missing covariate, spatial autocorrelation due to a dispersal process in presences/absences, sample size, sampling design and modeling technique-in a real study framework based on plants in a mountain landscape at regional scale, and show that, for the parameter values considered here, most of the variation in prediction accuracy is due to sample size and modeling technique. Contrary to repeatedly reported concerns, spatial autocorrelation has only comparatively small effects. 4. This study shows the importance of using a nested statistical framework to evaluate the relative effects of factors that may affect species distribution models.

The effect of dose on the antimalarial efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine: a systematic review and pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemether-lumefantrine is the most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy for malaria, although treatment failures occur in some regions. We investigated the effect of dosing strategy on efficacy in a pooled analysis from trials done in a wide range of malaria-endemic settings. METHODS: We searched PubMed for clinical trials that enrolled and treated patients with artemether-lumefantrine and were published from 1960 to December, 2012. We merged individual patient data from these trials by use of standardised methods. The primary endpoint was the PCR-adjusted risk of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence by day 28. Secondary endpoints consisted of the PCR-adjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, PCR-unadjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, early parasite clearance, and gametocyte carriage. Risk factors for PCR-adjusted recrudescence were identified using Cox's regression model with frailty shared across the study sites. FINDINGS: We included 61 studies done between January, 1998, and December, 2012, and included 14 327 patients in our analyses. The PCR-adjusted therapeutic efficacy was 97·6% (95% CI 97·4-97·9) at day 28 and 96·0% (95·6-96·5) at day 42. After controlling for age and parasitaemia, patients prescribed a higher dose of artemether had a lower risk of having parasitaemia on day 1 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·86-0·99 for every 1 mg/kg increase in daily artemether dose; p=0·024), but not on day 2 (p=0·69) or day 3 (0·087). In Asia, children weighing 10-15 kg who received a total lumefantrine dose less than 60 mg/kg had the lowest PCR-adjusted efficacy (91·7%, 95% CI 86·5-96·9). In Africa, the risk of treatment failure was greatest in malnourished children aged 1-3 years (PCR-adjusted efficacy 94·3%, 95% CI 92·3-96·3). A higher artemether dose was associated with a lower gametocyte presence within 14 days of treatment (adjusted OR 0·92, 95% CI 0·85-0·99; p=0·037 for every 1 mg/kg increase in total artemether dose). INTERPRETATION: The recommended dose of artemether-lumefantrine provides reliable efficacy in most patients with uncomplicated malaria. However, therapeutic efficacy was lowest in young children from Asia and young underweight children from Africa; a higher dose regimen should be assessed in these groups. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 gene reporters interrogating the dibenzofuran metabolic network highlight conditions for early successful development in contaminated microcosms.

In order to better understand the fate and activity of bacteria introduced into contaminated material for the purpose of enhancing biodegradation rates, we constructed Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 variants with gene reporters interrogating dibenzofuran metabolic activity. Three potential promoters from the dibenzofuran metabolic network were selected and fused to the gene for enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP). The stability of the resulting genetic constructions in RW1 was examined, with plasmids based on the broad-host range vector pME6012 being the most reliable. One of the selected promoters, upstream of the gene Swit_4925 for a putative 2-hydroxy-2,4-pentadienoate hydratase, was inducible by growth on dibenzofuran. Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 equipped with the Swit_4925 promoter egfp fusion grew in a variety of non-sterile sandy microcosms contaminated with dibenzofuran and material from a former gasification site. The strain also grew in microcosms without added dibenzofuran but to a very limited extent, and EGFP expression indicated the formation of consistent small subpopulations of cells with an active inferred dibenzofuran metabolic network. Evidence was obtained for competition for dibenzofuran metabolites scavenged by resident bacteria in the gasification site material, which resulted in a more rapid decline of the RW1 population. Our results show the importance of low inoculation densities in order to observe the population development of the introduced bacteria and further illustrate that the limited availability of unique carbon substrate may be the most important factor impinging growth.

Small Cell Carcinoma of the Urinary Bladder: A Retrospective, Multicenter Rare Cancer Network Study of 107 Patients.

PURPOSE: Small cell carcinomas of the bladder (SCCB) account for fewer than 1% of all urinary bladder tumors. There is no consensus regarding the optimal treatment for SCCB. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Fifteen academic Rare Cancer Network medical centers contributed SCCB cases. The eligibility criteria were as follows: pure or mixed SCC; local, locoregional, and metastatic stages; and age ≥18 years. The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were calculated from the date of diagnosis according to the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank and Wilcoxon tests were used to analyze survival as functions of clinical and therapeutic factors. RESULTS: The study included 107 patients (mean [±standard deviation, SD] age, 69.6 [±10.6] years; mean follow-up time, 4.4 years) with primary bladder SCC, with 66% of these patients having pure SCC. Seventy-two percent and 12% of the patients presented with T2-4N0M0 and T2-4N1-3M0 stages, respectively, and 16% presented with synchronous metastases. The most frequent curative treatments were radical surgery and chemotherapy, sequential chemotherapy and radiation therapy, and radical surgery alone. The median (interquartile range, IQR) OS and DFS times were 12.9 months (IQR, 7-32 months) and 9 months (IQR, 5-23 months), respectively. The metastatic, T2-4N0M0, and T2-4N1-3M0 groups differed significantly (P=.001) in terms of median OS and DFS. In a multivariate analysis, impaired creatinine clearance (OS and DFS), clinical stage (OS and DFS), a Karnofsky performance status <80 (OS), and pure SCC histology (OS) were independent and significant adverse prognostic factors. In the patients with nonmetastatic disease, the type of treatment (ie radical surgery with or without adjuvant chemotherapy vs conservative treatment) did not significantly influence OS or DFS (P=.7). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis for SCCB remains poor. The finding that radical cystectomy did not influence DFS or OS in the patients with nonmetastatic disease suggests that conservative treatment is appropriate in this situation.

Induced pluripotent stem cells as a promising tool to study the effect of interleukin-22 in multiple sclerosis

La sclérose en plaques (SEP) est une maladie démyélinisante du système nerveux central (SNC) provoquant des pertes motrices, sensitives et cognitives. La SEP se déclare chez le jeune adulte ayant des prédispositions génétiques, mais semble induite, par des facteurs environnementaux. La SEP touche principalement les femmes et sa prévalence dans les zones à haut risque, tel que la Suisse, est de 0.1%. Bien que son étiologie exacte reste méconnue, nous savons que la maladie est médiée par des lymphocytes T autoréactifs périphériques, qui infiltrent le SNC où ils activent d'autres cellules immunitaires ainsi que les cellules du SNC elles-mêmes, créant un foyer inflammatoire, qui va attaquer et finir par tuer les oligodendrocytes et les neurones. Les épisodes inflammatoires sont entrecoupés par des phases de rémission associées à une guérison partielle des lésions. Cette première phase de la maladie, comprenant des épisodes inflammatoires et de rémissions est appelé SEP récurrente-rémittente (SEP-RR) et touche 90% des patients. Elle évolue, dans deux-tiers des cas, vers une SEP secondaire progressive (SEP-SP), qui est caractérisée par une progression constante de la maladie, associée à une réduction de l'inflammation mais une augmentation de la neurodégénérescence. Les patients souffrants de SEP primaire progressive (SEP-PP) développent directement les symptômes de la phase progressive de la maladie. Les thérapies disponibles ont considérablement amélioré l'évolution de la maladie des patients SEP-RR, en agissant sur une diminution de la réponse immunitaire et donc de l'inflammation. Cependant, ces traitements sont inefficaces chez les patients SEP-SP et SEP-PP, n'agissant pas sur la neurodégénérescence. IL-22, une cytokine sécrétée notoirement par les cellules Th17, a été associée à la SEP en contribuant à la perméabilisation de la barrière hémato-encéphalique et à l'inflammation du SNC, qui sont des étapes clés de la pathogenèse de la maladie. En outre, le gène codant pour un inhibiteur puissant d'IL- 22, 'IL-22 binding protein' (IL-22BP), a été démontré comme un facteur de risque de la SEP. Ces indices nous ont poussés à nous intéresser de plus près au rôle de l'IL-22 dans la SEP. Nous avons pu montrer qu'IL-22 et IL-22BP étaient augmentées dans le sang des patients SEP par rapport à des sujets sains. Nous avons trouvé qu'IL-22 cible spécifiquement les astrocytes dans le SNC et que son récepteur est particulièrement exprimé dans les lésions des patient SEP. Contre toute attente, nous avons pu montrer que l'IL-22 semble soutenir la survie des astrocytes. Cette découverte, suggérant qu'IL-22 serait protecteur pour le SNC et pour la SEP, confirme de récentes publications et ouvre la voie à de potentielles applications thérapeutiques. En parallèle, dans le but de mieux comprendre l'immunopathogenèse de la SEP, nous avons développé les techniques de culture de cellules souches pluripotentes induites (iPSC). Nos iPSC sont dérivées du sang des donneurs et acquièrent toutes les propriétés des cellules souches embryonnaires après induction. Les iPSC peuvent ensuite être différenciées en différents types de cellules, dont les cellules du SNC. Nous avons ainsi pu obtenir avec succès des neurones, dérivés de cellules du sang, en passant par le stade des iPSC. La prochaine étape consiste à générer des cultures d'astrocytes et d'oligodendrocytes et ainsi obtenir les principales cellules du SNC, le but étant de former de véritables 'cerveaux-en-culture'. Cet outil semble particulièrement adapté à l'étude de l'activité de diverses molécules sur les cellules du SNC, comme par exemple l'IL-22 et d'autres molécules ayant un potentiel intérêt thérapeutique au niveau du SNC. Le but ultime étant de développer des co-cultures de cellules du SNC avec des cellules immunitaires autologues, de patients SEP et de sujets sains, afin de mettre en évidence l'attaque des cellules du SNC par des leucocytes autoréactifs. Ce projet prospectif a permis d'accroître nos connaissance sur des aspects immunitaires de la SEP et à pour but de mieux comprendre l'immunopathogenèse de la SEP afin d'élaborer de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques. -- La sclérose en plaques est une maladie auto-inflammatoire du système nerveux central conduisant à la destruction de la myéline, indispensable à la conduction nerveuse, et finalement à la mort des neurones eux-mêmes. Cela a pour conséquence des pertes motrices, sensorielles et cognitives, qui ont tendance à s'aggraver au fil de la maladie. Elle se déclare chez le jeune adulte, entre l'âge de 20 et 40 ans, et prédomine chez la femme. En Suisse, environ une personne sur l'OOO est atteinte de sclérose en plaques. Les causes exactes de cette maladie, qui incluent des facteurs génétiques et environnementaux, sont encore mal connues. Des traitements de plus en plus efficaces ont été développés ces dernières années et ont permis de drastiquement améliorer l'évolution de la maladie chez les patients atteints de sclérose en plaques. Cependant, ces traitements ne sont efficaces que sur certaines catégories de patients et peuvent engendrer de lourds effets secondaires. Ces thérapies agissent presque exclusivement sur les cellules du système immunitaire en les désactivant partiellement, mais pas sur les cellules nerveuses, qui sont pourtant celles qui conditionnent le devenir du patient. Le développement de médicaments protégeant ou permettant la régénération des cellules du système nerveux central est donc primordial. L'étude de l'interleukine-22 nous a permis de montrer que cette cytokine ('hormone' du système immunitaire) pouvait cibler spécifiquement les astrocytes, des cellules gliales qui jouent un rôle central dans le maintien de l'équilibre du système nerveux central. Nos recherches ont montré que cette interleukine-22 permettrait une meilleure survie des astrocytes durant la phase aiguë de la maladie et aurait aussi des propriétés neuroprotectrices. En parallèle, nous sommes en train de développer un nouveau modèle in vitro d'étude de la sclérose en plaques grâce à la technologie des cellules souches pluripotentes induites. Ces cellules souches sont induites à partir de cellules du sang du donneur et acquièrent toutes les caractéristiques des cellules souches embryonnaires présentes dans un organisme en formation. Ainsi, ces cellules souches pluripotentes ont, par exemple, la capacité de se différencier en cellules du système nerveux central. Nous avons pu, de cette manière, obtenir des neurones. Le but ultime serait de pouvoir reconstituer une ébauche de cerveau in vitro, en cultivant ensemble différents types de cellules du système nerveux central, afin d'y réaliser des expériences avec des cellules immunitaires du même donneur. Ces travaux ont pour but d'améliorer notre compréhension de la pathogenèse de la sclérose en plaques et de permettre le développement de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques. --Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease of the central nervous system leading to cognitive, sensitive and motor disabilities. MS occurs in genetically predisposed young adults with probable environmental triggers. MS affects predominantly women and its prevalence in high risk area such as Switzerland is 0.1%. Though its exact aetiology remains undetermined, we know that autoreactive T cells from de periphery are reactivated and recruited into the central nervous system (CNS) were they further activate other immune cells and resident cells, creating inflammatory foci, where oligodendrocytes and neurons are insulted and, eventually, killed. Inflammatory episodes, called relapses, are interspersed with remission phases where partial recovery of the lesions occurs. This first phase of the disease, occurring in 90% of the patients, is called relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) and is leading, in two-third of the cases, to secondary-progressive MS (SP-MS), where there is a continuous steady progression of the disease, associated with reduced inflammation but increased neurodegeneration. Primary-progressive MS (PP-MS) patients experience directly this progressive phase of the disease. Whereas disease modifying therapies have dramatically ameliorated the disease course of RR-MS patients by dampening immunity and, in turn, inflammation, treatments of SP-MS and PP-MS patients, who suffer primarily from the neurodegenerative aspect of the disease, are still inexistent. IL-22, a pro-inflammatory Th17 cell cytokine, has been associated with MS by participating to blood-brain barrier infiltration and CNS inflammation, which are crucial steps in MS pathogenesis. In addition, the gene coding for IL-22 binding protein (IL-22BP), which is a potent secreted IL-22 inhibitor, has been associated with MS risk. These findings call for further investigation on the role of IL-22 in MS. We detected increased IL-22 and IL-22BP in the blood of MS patients as compared to healthy controls. Acting exclusively on cells of nonhematopoietic origin, we found that IL-22 targets specifically astrocytes in the CNS and that its receptor is highly expressed in the lesion of MS patients. Unexpectedly, we found that IL-22 seems to promote survival of astrocytes. This finding, suggesting that IL-22 might be protective for the CNS in the context of MS, is consistent with recent publications and might open putative therapeutic applications at the CNS level. In parallel, with the aim of better understanding the immunopathogenesis of MS, we developed induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) techniques. IPSC are derived from blood cells of the donors and bear embryonic stem cell properties. IPSC can be differentiated into various cell types including CNS cells. We successfully obtained neurons derived from the donor blood cells, through iPSC. We further aim at developing astrocytes and oligodendrocytes cultures to recreate a 'brain-in-a-dish'. This would be a powerful tool to test the activity of various compounds on CNS cells, including IL-22 and other putative neuroprotective drugs. Ultimately, the goal is to develop co-cultures of CNS cells with autologous immune cells of MS patients as well as healthy controls to try to expose evidence of CNS cells targeted by autoreactive leukocytes. This prospective project has increased our knowledge of immune aspects of MS and further aims at better understanding the immunopathology of MS in order to pave the way to the elaboration of new therapeutic strategies.

Fast oscillatory activity in the anterior cingulate cortex: dopaminergic modulation and effect of perineuronal net loss.

Dopamine release in the prefrontal cortex plays a critical role in cognitive function such as working memory, attention and planning. Dopamine exerts complex modulation on excitability of pyramidal neurons and interneurons, and regulates excitatory and inhibitory synaptic transmission. Because of the complexity of this modulation, it is difficult to fully comprehend the effect of dopamine on neuronal network activity. In this study, we investigated the effect of dopamine on local high-frequency oscillatory neuronal activity (in β band) in slices of the mouse anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). We found that dopamine enhanced the power of these oscillations induced by kainate and carbachol, but did not affect their peak frequency. Activation of D2R and in a lesser degree D1R increased the oscillation power, while activation of D4R had no effect. These high-frequency oscillations in the ACC relied on both phasic inhibitory and excitatory transmission and functional gap junctions. Thus, dopamine released in the ACC promotes high-frequency synchronized local cortical activity which is known to favor information transfer, fast selection and binding of distributed neuronal responses. Finally, the power of these oscillations was significantly enhanced after degradation of the perineuronal nets (PNNs) enwrapping most parvalbumin interneurons. This study provides new insights for a better understanding of the abnormal prefrontal gamma activity in schizophrenia (SZ) patients who display prefrontal anomalies of both the dopaminergic system and the PNNs.

Effect of Smoking on Blood Pressure and Resting Heart Rate: A Mendelian Randomization Meta-Analysis in the CARTA Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is an important cardiovascular disease risk factor, but the mechanisms linking smoking to blood pressure are poorly understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on 141 317 participants (62 666 never, 40 669 former, 37 982 current smokers) from 23 population-based studies were included in observational and Mendelian randomization meta-analyses of the associations of smoking status and smoking heaviness with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, hypertension, and resting heart rate. For the Mendelian randomization analyses, a genetic variant rs16969968/rs1051730 was used as a proxy for smoking heaviness in current smokers. In observational analyses, current as compared with never smoking was associated with lower systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure and lower hypertension risk, but with higher resting heart rate. In observational analyses among current smokers, 1 cigarette/day higher level of smoking heaviness was associated with higher (0.21 bpm; 95% confidence interval 0.19; 0.24) resting heart rate and slightly higher diastolic blood pressure (0.05 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval 0.02; 0.08) and systolic blood pressure (0.08 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval 0.03; 0.13). However, in Mendelian randomization analyses among current smokers, although each smoking increasing allele of rs16969968/rs1051730 was associated with higher resting heart rate (0.36 bpm/allele; 95% confidence interval 0.18; 0.54), there was no strong association with diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, or hypertension. This would suggest a 7 bpm higher heart rate in those who smoke 20 cigarettes/day. CONCLUSIONS: This Mendelian randomization meta-analysis supports a causal association of smoking heaviness with higher level of resting heart rate, but not with blood pressure. These findings suggest that part of the cardiovascular risk of smoking may operate through increasing resting heart rate.

Defining the Effect of the 16p11.2 Duplication on Cognition, Behavior, and Medical Comorbidities.

IMPORTANCE: The 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 duplication is the copy number variant most frequently associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), schizophrenia, and comorbidities such as decreased body mass index (BMI). OBJECTIVES: To characterize the effects of the 16p11.2 duplication on cognitive, behavioral, medical, and anthropometric traits and to understand the specificity of these effects by systematically comparing results in duplication carriers and reciprocal deletion carriers, who are also at risk for ASD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This international cohort study of 1006 study participants compared 270 duplication carriers with their 102 intrafamilial control individuals, 390 reciprocal deletion carriers, and 244 deletion controls from European and North American cohorts. Data were collected from August 1, 2010, to May 31, 2015 and analyzed from January 1 to August 14, 2015. Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of the duplication and deletion on clinical traits by comparison with noncarrier relatives. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Findings on the Full-Scale IQ (FSIQ), Nonverbal IQ, and Verbal IQ; the presence of ASD or other DSM-IV diagnoses; BMI; head circumference; and medical data. RESULTS: Among the 1006 study participants, the duplication was associated with a mean FSIQ score that was lower by 26.3 points between proband carriers and noncarrier relatives and a lower mean FSIQ score (16.2-11.4 points) in nonproband carriers. The mean overall effect of the deletion was similar (-22.1 points; P < .001). However, broad variation in FSIQ was found, with a 19.4- and 2.0-fold increase in the proportion of FSIQ scores that were very low (≤40) and higher than the mean (>100) compared with the deletion group (P < .001). Parental FSIQ predicted part of this variation (approximately 36.0% in hereditary probands). Although the frequency of ASD was similar in deletion and duplication proband carriers (16.0% and 20.0%, respectively), the FSIQ was significantly lower (by 26.3 points) in the duplication probands with ASD. There also were lower head circumference and BMI measurements among duplication carriers, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The mean effect of the duplication on cognition is similar to that of the reciprocal deletion, but the variance in the duplication is significantly higher, with severe and mild subgroups not observed with the deletion. These results suggest that additional genetic and familial factors contribute to this variability. Additional studies will be necessary to characterize the predictors of cognitive deficits.