Scientific Evidence in Europe : Admissibility, Evaluation and Equality of Arms

This study was commissioned by the European Committee on Crime Problems at the Council of Europe to describe and discuss the standards used to asses the admissibility and appraisal of scientific evidence in various member countries. After documenting cases in which faulty forensic evidence seems to have played a critical role, the authors describe the legal foundations of the issues of admissibility and assessment of the probative value in the field of scientific evidence, contrasting criminal justice systems of accusatorial and inquisitorial tradition and the various risks that they pose in terms of equality of arms. Special attention is given to communication issues between lawyers and scientific experts. The authors eventually investigate possible ways of improving the system. Among these mechanisms, emphasis is put on the adoption of a common terminology for expressing the weight of evidence. It is also proposed to adopt an harmonized interpretation framework among forensic experts rooted in good practices of logical inference.

Age-period-cohort analysis of oral cancer mortality in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

Over the last decade, mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer has been declining in most European countries, but it had been increasing substantially in Hungary, Slovakia and a few other countries of central Europe, reaching rates comparable to those of lung cancer in several western European countries in males. To update trends in oral cancer mortality and further analyse the recent epidemic in central Europe, official death certifications for oral and pharyngeal cancer for 37 European countries were derived over the period 1970-2007, and an age-period-cohort model was fitted for selected countries. Male oral cancer mortality continued to decline in most European countries, including the Russian Federation, and, more importantly, it also started to decline in some of the countries with the highest male rates, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia; persisting rises were, however, observed in Belarus, Bulgaria and Romania. Oral cancer mortality rates for women were lower than in men and showed no appreciable trend over recent periods in the EU overall. Estimates from the age-period-cohort analysis for most selected countries showed a fall in effects for the cohorts born after the 1950s. For the period effect displayed a rise for the earlier periods, an inversion in the 1990s and a continuous fall up to the last studied period. Only some former non-market economy countries, like Romania, Ukraine and Lithuania, had rising cohort effect trends up to most recent generations. The major finding of this updated analysis of oral cancer mortality is the leveling of the epidemic for men in most European countries, including Hungary and other central European countries, where mortality from this cancer was exceedingly high. These trends essentially reflect the changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption in various populations.

Data bases for the assessment of medical technologies: examples from Europe.

The assessment of medical technologies has to answer several questions ranging from safety and effectiveness to complex economical, social, and health policy issues. The type of data needed to carry out such evaluation depends on the specific questions to be answered, as well as on the stage of development of a technology. Basically two types of data may be distinguished: (a) general demographic, administrative, or financial data which has been collected not specifically for technology assessment; (b) the data collected with respect either to a specific technology or to a disease or medical problem. On the basis of a pilot inquiry in Europe and bibliographic research, the following categories of type (b) data bases have been identified: registries, clinical data bases, banks of factual and bibliographic knowledge, and expert systems. Examples of each category are discussed briefly. The following aims for further research and practical goals are proposed: criteria for the minimal data set required, improvement to the registries and clinical data banks, and development of an international clearinghouse to enhance information diffusion on both existing data bases and available reports on medical technology assessments.

Prevalence of and potential influencing factors for alcohol dependence in europe.

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs), and alcohol dependence (AD) in particular, are prevalent and associated with a large burden of disability and mortality. The aim of this study was to estimate prevalence of AD in the European Union (EU), Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland for the year 2010, and to investigate potential influencing factors. The 1-year prevalence of AD in the EU was estimated at 3.4% among people 18-64 years of age in Europe (women 1.7%, men 5.2%), resulting in close to 11 million affected people. Taking into account all people of all ages, AD, abuse and harmful use resulted in an estimate of 23 million affected people. Prevalence of AD varied widely between European countries, and was significantly impacted by drinking cultures and social norms. Correlations with level of drinking and other drinking variables and with major known outcomes of heavy drinking, such as liver cirrhosis or injury, were moderate. These results suggest a need to rethink the definition of AUDs.

Treatment of localised resectable neuroblastoma. Results of the LNESG1 study by the SIOP Europe Neuroblastoma Group.

Main objective of this study was to confirm that surgery alone is an effective and safe treatment for localised resectable neuroblastoma except stage 2 with amplified MYCN gene (MYCNA). Of 427 eligible stages 1-2 patients, 411 had normal MYCN and 16 had MYCNA. Of the 288 stage 1 patients with normal MYCN, 1 died of complications and 16 relapsed, 2 of whom died; 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 94.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 91.6-97) and 98.9% (95% CI: 97.7-100), respectively. Of the 123 stage 2 patients with normal MYCN, 1 died of sepsis and 22 relapsed, 8 of whom died (RFS 82.8%, 95% CI: 76.2-89.5; OS 93.2%, 95% CI: 88.7-97.8). In stage 2, OS and RFS were worse for patients with elevated LDH and unfavourable histopathology. Of 16 children with MYCNA, 7 were stage 1 (5 relapses and 4 deaths) and 9 were stage 2 (3 relapses and 2 deaths) patients. In conclusion, surgery alone yielded excellent OS for both stage 1 and 2 neuroblastoma without MYCNA, although stage 2 patients with unfavourable histopathology and elevated LDH suffered a high number of relapses. Both stage 1 and 2 patients with MYCNA were at greater risk of relapse.

Ascertaining late-life depressive symptoms in Europe: an evaluation of the survey version of the EURO-D scale in 10 nations. The SHARE project.

The reported prevalence of late-life depressive symptoms varies widely between studies, a finding that might be attributed to cultural as well as methodological factors. The EURO-D scale was developed to allow valid comparison of prevalence and risk associations between European countries. This study used Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Rasch models to assess whether the goal of measurement invariance had been achieved; using EURO-D scale data collected in 10 European countries as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (n = 22,777). The results suggested a two-factor solution (Affective Suffering and Motivation) after Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in 9 of the 10 countries. With CFA, in all countries, the two-factor solution had better overall goodness-of-fit than the one-factor solution. However, only the Affective Suffering subscale was equivalent across countries, while the Motivation subscale was not. The Rasch model indicated that the EURO-D was a hierarchical scale. While the calibration pattern was similar across countries, between countries agreement in item calibrations was stronger for the items loading on the affective suffering than the motivation factor. In conclusion, there is evidence to support the EURO-D as either a uni-dimensional or bi-dimensional scale measure of depressive symptoms in late-life across European countries. The Affective Suffering sub-component had more robust cross-cultural validity than the Motivation sub-component.