Repetitive Deliberate Fires: Critical Review of the Situation and Proposal of a Follow-Up Process and Systematic Analysis

Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.

The profiling of false identity documents: a promising method to fight identity fraud

Under the influence of intelligence-led policing models, crime analysis methods have known of important developments in recent years. Applications have been proposed in several fields of forensic science to exploit and manage various types of material evidence in a systematic and more efficient way. However, nothing has been suggested so far in the field of false identity documents.This study seeks to fill this gap by proposing a simple and general method for profiling false identity documents which aims to establish links based on their visual forensic characteristics. A sample of more than 200 false identity documents including French stolen blank passports, counterfeited driving licenses from Iraq and falsified Bulgarian driving licenses was gathered from nine Swiss police departments and integrated into an ad hoc developed database called ProfID. Links detected automatically and systematically through this database were exploited and analyzed to produce strategic and tactical intelligence useful to the fight against identity document fraud.The profiling and intelligence process established for these three types of false identity documents has confirmed its efficiency, more than 30% of documents being linked. Identity document fraud appears as a structured and interregional criminality, against which material and forensic links detected between false identity documents might serve as a tool for investigation.

The systematic profiling of false identity documents: method validation and performance evaluation using seizures known to originate from common and different sources

False identity documents constitute a potential powerful source of forensic intelligence because they are essential elements of transnational crime and provide cover for organized crime. In previous work, a systematic profiling method using false documents' visual features has been built within a forensic intelligence model. In the current study, the comparison process and metrics lying at the heart of this profiling method are described and evaluated. This evaluation takes advantage of 347 false identity documents of four different types seized in two countries whose sources were known to be common or different (following police investigations and dismantling of counterfeit factories). Intra-source and inter-sources variations were evaluated through the computation of more than 7500 similarity scores. The profiling method could thus be validated and its performance assessed using two complementary approaches to measuring type I and type II error rates: a binary classification and the computation of likelihood ratios. Very low error rates were measured across the four document types, demonstrating the validity and robustness of the method to link documents to a common source or to differentiate them. These results pave the way for an operational implementation of a systematic profiling process integrated in a developed forensic intelligence model.

Challenges and threats to implementing the fight against doping in sport

Prominent doping cases in certain sports have recently raised public awareness of doping and reinforced the perception that doping is widespread. Efforts to deal with doping in sport have intensified in recent years, yet the general public believes that the 'cheaters' are ahead of the testers. Therefore, there is an urgent need to change the antidoping strategy. For example, the increase in the number of individual drug tests conducted between 2005 and 2012 was approximately 90 000 and equivalent to an increase of about 50%, yet the number of adverse analytical findings remained broadly the same. There is also a strikingly different prevalence of doping substances and methods in sports such as a 0.03% prevalence of anabolic steroids in football compared to 0.4% in the overall WADA statistics. Future efforts in the fight against doping should therefore be more heavily based on preventative strategies such as education and on the analysis of data and forensic intelligence and also on the experiences of relevant stakeholders such as the national antidoping organisations, the laboratories, athletes or team physicians and related biomedical support staff. This strategy is essential to instigate the change needed to more effectively fight doping in sport.

Des faux documents d'identité au renseignement forensique : développement d'une approche systématique et transversale du traitement de la donnée forensique à des fins de renseignement criminel

La fabrication, la distribution et l'usage de fausses pièces d'identité constituent une menace pour la sécurité autant publique que privée. Ces faux documents représentent en effet un catalyseur pour une multitude de formes de criminalité, des plus anodines aux formes les plus graves et organisées. La dimension, la complexité, la faible visibilité, ainsi que les caractères répétitif et évolutif de la fraude aux documents d'identité appellent des réponses nouvelles qui vont au-delà d'une approche traditionnelle au cas par cas ou de la stratégie du tout technologique dont la perspective historique révèle l'échec. Ces nouvelles réponses passent par un renforcement de la capacité de comprendre les problèmes criminels que posent la fraude aux documents d'identité et les phénomènes qui l'animent. Cette compréhension est tout bonnement nécessaire pour permettre d'imaginer, d'évaluer et de décider les solutions et mesures les plus appropriées. Elle requière de développer les capacités d'analyse et la fonction de renseignement criminel qui fondent en particulier les modèles d'action de sécurité les plus récents, tels que l'intelligence-led policing ou le problem-oriented policing par exemple. Dans ce contexte, le travail doctoral adopte une position originale en postulant que les fausses pièces d'identité se conçoivent utilement comme la trace matérielle ou le vestige résultant de l'activité de fabrication ou d'altération d'un document d'identité menée par les faussaires. Sur la base de ce postulat fondamental, il est avancé que l'exploitation scientifique, méthodique et systématique de ces traces au travers d'un processus de renseignement forensique permet de générer des connaissances phénoménologiques sur les formes de criminalité qui fabriquent, diffusent ou utilisent les fausses pièces d'identité, connaissances qui s'intègrent et se mettent avantageusement au service du renseignement criminel. A l'appui de l'épreuve de cette thèse de départ et de l'étude plus générale du renseignement forensique, le travail doctoral propose des définitions et des modèles. Il décrit des nouvelles méthodes de profilage et initie la constitution d'un catalogue de formes d'analyses. Il recourt également à des expérimentations et des études de cas. Les résultats obtenus démontrent que le traitement systématique de la donnée forensique apporte une contribution utile et pertinente pour le renseignement criminel stratégique, opérationnel et tactique, ou encore la criminologie. Combiné aux informations disponibles par ailleurs, le renseignement forensique produit est susceptible de soutenir l'action de sécurité dans ses dimensions répressive, proactive, préventive et de contrôle. En particulier, les méthodes de profilage des fausses pièces d'identité proposées permettent de révéler des tendances au travers de jeux de données étendus, d'analyser des modus operandi ou d'inférer une communauté ou différence de source. Ces méthodes appuient des moyens de détection et de suivi des séries, des problèmes et des phénomènes criminels qui s'intègrent dans le cadre de la veille opérationnelle. Ils permettent de regrouper par problèmes les cas isolés, de mettre en évidence les formes organisées de criminalité qui méritent le plus d'attention, ou de produire des connaissances robustes et inédites qui offrent une perception plus profonde de la criminalité. Le travail discute également les difficultés associées à la gestion de données et d'informations propres à différents niveaux de généralité, ou les difficultés relatives à l'implémentation du processus de renseignement forensique dans la pratique. Ce travail doctoral porte en premier lieu sur les fausses pièces d'identité et leur traitement par les protagonistes de l'action de sécurité. Au travers d'une démarche inductive, il procède également à une généralisation qui souligne que les observations ci-dessus ne valent pas uniquement pour le traitement systématique des fausses pièces d'identité, mais pour celui de tout type de trace dès lors qu'un profil en est extrait. Il ressort de ces travaux une définition et une compréhension plus transversales de la notion et de la fonction de renseignement forensique. The production, distribution and use of false identity documents constitute a threat to both public and private security. Fraudulent documents are a catalyser for a multitude of crimes, from the most trivial to the most serious and organised forms. The dimension, complexity, low visibility as well as the repetitive and evolving character of the production and use of false identity documents call for new solutions that go beyond the traditional case-by-case approach, or the technology-focused strategy whose failure is revealed by the historic perspective. These new solutions require to strengthen the ability to understand crime phenomena and crime problems posed by false identity documents. Such an understanding is pivotal in order to be able to imagine, evaluate and decide on the most appropriate measures and responses. Therefore, analysis capacities and crime intelligence functions, which found the most recent policing models such as intelligence-led policing or problem-oriented policing for instance, have to be developed. In this context, the doctoral research work adopts an original position by postulating that false identity documents can be usefully perceived as the material remnant resulting from the criminal activity undertook by forgers, namely the manufacture or the modification of identity documents. Based on this fundamental postulate, it is proposed that a scientific, methodical and systematic processing of these traces through a forensic intelligence approach can generate phenomenological knowledge on the forms of crime that produce, distribute and use false identity documents. Such knowledge should integrate and serve advantageously crime intelligence efforts. In support of this original thesis and of a more general study of forensic intelligence, the doctoral work proposes definitions and models. It describes new profiling methods and initiates the construction of a catalogue of analysis forms. It also leverages experimentations and case studies. Results demonstrate that the systematic processing of forensic data usefully and relevantly contributes to strategic, tactical and operational crime intelligence, and also to criminology. Combined with alternative information available, forensic intelligence may support policing in its repressive, proactive, preventive and control activities. In particular, the proposed profiling methods enable to reveal trends among extended datasets, to analyse modus operandi, or to infer that false identity documents have a common or different source. These methods support the detection and follow-up of crime series, crime problems and phenomena and therefore contribute to crime monitoring efforts. They enable to link and regroup by problems cases that were previously viewed as isolated, to highlight organised forms of crime which deserve greatest attention, and to elicit robust and novel knowledge offering a deeper perception of crime. The doctoral research work discusses also difficulties associated with the management of data and information relating to different levels of generality, or difficulties associated with the implementation in practice of the forensic intelligence process. The doctoral work focuses primarily on false identity documents and their treatment by policing stakeholders. However, through an inductive process, it makes a generalisation which underlines that observations do not only apply to false identity documents but to any kind of trace as soon as a profile is extracted. A more transversal definition and understanding of the concept and function of forensic intelligence therefore derives from the doctoral work.

Time for change: a roadmap to guide the implementation of the World Anti-Doping Code 2015

A medical and scientific multidisciplinary consensus meeting was held from 29 to 30 November 2013 on Anti-Doping in Sport at the Home of FIFA in Zurich, Switzerland, to create a roadmap for the implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code. The consensus statement and accompanying papers set out the priorities for the antidoping community in research, science and medicine. The participants achieved consensus on a strategy for the implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code. Key components of this strategy include: (1) sport-specific risk assessment, (2) prevalence measurement, (3) sport-specific test distribution plans, (4) storage and reanalysis, (5) analytical challenges, (6) forensic intelligence, (7) psychological approach to optimise the most deterrent effect, (8) the Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) and confounding factors, (9) data management system (Anti-Doping Administration & Management System (ADAMS), (10) education, (11) research needs and necessary advances, (12) inadvertent doping and (13) management and ethics: biological data. True implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code will depend largely on the ability to align thinking around these core concepts and strategies. FIFA, jointly with all other engaged International Federations of sports (Ifs), the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), are ideally placed to lead transformational change with the unwavering support of the wider antidoping community. The outcome of the consensus meeting was the creation of the ad hoc Working Group charged with the responsibility of moving this agenda forward.

Fas and Fas ligand in embryos and adult mice: ligand expression in several immune-privileged tissues and coexpression in adult tissues characterized by apoptotic cell turnover.

The cell surface receptor Fas (FasR, Apo-1, CD95) and its ligand (FasL) are mediators of apoptosis that have been shown to be implicated in the peripheral deletion of autoimmune cells, activation-induced T cell death, and one of the two major cytolytic pathways mediated by CD8+ cytolytic T cells. To gain further understanding of the Fas system., we have analyzed Fas and FasL expression during mouse development and in adult tissues. In developing mouse embryos, from 16.5 d onwards, Fas mRNA is detectable in distinct cell types of the developing sinus, thymus, lung, and liver, whereas FasL expression is restricted to submaxillary gland epithelial cells and the developing nervous system. Significant Fas and FasL expression were observed in several nonlymphoid cell types during embryogenesis, and generally Fas and FasL expression were not localized to characteristic sites of programmed cell death. In the adult mouse, RNase protection analysis revealed very wide expression of both Fas and FasL. Several tissues, including the thymus, lung, spleen, small intestine, large intestine, seminal vesicle, prostate, and uterus, clearly coexpress the two genes. Most tissues constitutively coexpressing Fas and FasL in the adult mouse are characterized by apoptotic cell turnover, and many of those expressing FasL are known to be immune privileged. It may be, therefore, that the Fas system is implicated in both the regulation of physiological cell turnover and the protection of particular tissues against potential lymphocyte-mediated damage.

Chemical profiling: a tool to decipher the structure and organisation of illicit drugs markets: an 8-year study in Western Switzerland

Illicit drug analyses usually focus on the identification and quantitation of questioned material to support the judicial process. In parallel, more and more laboratories develop physical and chemical profiling methods in a forensic intelligence perspective. The analysis of large databases resulting from this approach enables not only to draw tactical and operational intelligence, but may also contribute to the strategic overview of drugs markets. In Western Switzerland, the chemical analysis of illicit drug seizures is centralised in a laboratory hosted by the University of Lausanne. For over 8 years, this laboratory has analysed 5875 cocaine and 2728 heroin specimens, coming from respectively 1138 and 614 seizures operated by police and border guards or customs. Chemical (major and minor alkaloids, purity, cutting agents, chemical class), physical (packaging and appearance) as well as circumstantial (criminal case number, mass of drug seized, date and place of seizure) information are collated in a dedicated database for each specimen. The study capitalises on this extended database and defines several indicators to characterise the structure of drugs markets, to follow-up on their evolution and to compare cocaine and heroin markets. Relational, spatial, temporal and quantitative analyses of data reveal the emergence and importance of distribution networks. They enable to evaluate the cross-jurisdictional character of drug trafficking and the observation time of drug batches, as well as the quantity of drugs entering the market every year. Results highlight the stable nature of drugs markets over the years despite the very dynamic flows of distribution and consumption. This research work illustrates how the systematic analysis of forensic data may elicit knowledge on criminal activities at a strategic level. In combination with information from other sources, such knowledge can help to devise intelligence-based preventive and repressive measures and to discuss the impact of countermeasures.

The use of methylamphetamine chemical profiling in an intelligence-led perspective and the observation of inhomogeneity within seizures

This study focuses on methylamphetamine (MA) seizures made by the Australian Federal Police (AFP) to investigate the use of chemical profiling in an intelligence perspective. Correlation coefficients were used to obtain a similarity degree between a population of linked samples and a population of unlinked samples. Although it was demonstrated that a general framework can be followed for the use of any forensic case data in an intelligence-led perspective, threshold values have to be re-evaluated for each type of illicit drug investigated. Unlike the results obtained in a previous study on 3,4-methylenedioxymethylamphetamine (MDMA) seizures, chemical profiles of MA samples coming from the same seizure showed relative inhomogeneity, limiting their ability to link seizures. Different hypotheses were investigated to obtain a better understanding of this inhomogeneity although no trend was observed. These findings raise an interesting discussion in regards to the homogeneity and representativeness of illicit drug seizures (for intelligence purposes). Further, it also provides some grounds to discuss the initial hypotheses and assumptions that most forensic science studies are based on.

A collaborative approach for incorporating forensic case data into crime investigation using criminal intelligence analysis and visualisation

There is an increasing awareness that the articulation of forensic science and criminal investigation is critical to the resolution of crimes. However, models and methods to support an effective collaboration between these partners are still poorly expressed or even lacking. Three propositions are borrowed from crime intelligence methods in order to bridge this gap: (a) the general intelligence process, (b) the analyses of investigative problems along principal perspectives: entities and their relationships, time and space, quantitative aspects and (c) visualisation methods as a mode of expression of a problem in these dimensions. Indeed, in a collaborative framework, different kinds of visualisations integrating forensic case data can play a central role for supporting decisions. Among them, link-charts are scrutinised for their abilities to structure and ease the analysis of a case by describing how relevant entities are connected. However, designing an informative chart that does not bias the reasoning process is not straightforward. Using visualisation as a catalyser for a collaborative approach integrating forensic data thus calls for better specifications.

A forensic science perspective on the role of images in crime investigation and reconstruction

This article presents a global vision of images in forensic science. The proliferation of perspectives on the use of images throughout criminal investigations and the increasing demand for research on this topic seem to demand a forensic science-based analysis. In this study, the definitions of and concepts related to material traces are revisited and applied to images, and a structured approach is used to persuade the scientific community to extend and improve the use of images as traces in criminal investigations. Current research efforts focus on technical issues and evidence assessment. This article provides a sound foundation for rationalising and explaining the processes involved in the production of clues from trace images. For example, the mechanisms through which these visual traces become clues of presence or action are described. An extensive literature review of forensic image analysis emphasises the existing guidelines and knowledge available for answering investigative questions (who, what, where, when and how). However, complementary developments are still necessary to demystify many aspects of image analysis in forensic science, including how to review and select images or use them to reconstruct an event or assist intelligence efforts. The hypothetico-deductive reasoning pathway used to discover unknown elements of an event or crime can also help scientists understand the underlying processes involved in their decision making. An analysis of a single image in an investigative or probative context is used to demonstrate the highly informative potential of images as traces and/or clues. Research efforts should be directed toward formalising the extraction and combination of clues from images. An appropriate methodology is key to expanding the use of images in forensic science.

Genetic analysis of sudden cardiac death victims: a survey of current forensic autopsy practices.

Autopsy-negative sudden cardiac deaths (SCD) seen in forensic practice are most often thought to be the result of sudden arrhythmic death syndrome. Postmortem genetic analysis is recommended in such cases, but is currently performed in only a few academic centers. In order to determine actual current practice, an on-line questionnaire was sent by e-mail to members of various forensic medical associations. The questions addressed routine procedures employed in cases of sudden cardiac death (autopsy ordering, macroscopic and microscopic cardiac examination, conduction tissue examination, immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy, biochemical markers, sampling and storage of material for genetic analyses, toxicological analyses, and molecular autopsy). Some questions concerned the legal and ethical aspects of genetic analyses in postmortem examinations, as well as any existing multidisciplinary collaborations in SCD cases. There were 97 respondents, mostly from European countries. Genetic testing in cases of sudden cardiac death is rarely practiced in routine forensic investigation. Approximately 60% of respondents reported not having the means to perform genetic postmortem testing and 40% do not collect adequate material to perform these investigations at a later date, despite working at university hospitals. The survey demonstrated that many of the problems involved in the adequate investigation of SCD cases are often financial in origin, due to the fact that activities in forensic medicine are often paid by and dependent on the judicial authorities. Problems also exist concerning the contact with family members and/or the family doctor, as well as the often-nonexistent collaboration with others clinicians with special expertise beneficial in the investigation of SCD cases, such as cardiologists and geneticists. This study highlights the importance in establishing guidelines for molecular autopsies in forensic medicine.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part I. Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC

The level of information provided by ink evidence to the criminal and civil justice system is limited. The limitations arise from the weakness of the interpretative framework currently used, as proposed in the ASTM 1422-05 and 1789-04 on ink analysis. It is proposed to use the likelihood ratio from the Bayes theorem to interpret ink evidence. Unfortunately, when considering the analytical practices, as defined in the ASTM standards on ink analysis, it appears that current ink analytical practices do not allow for the level of reproducibility and accuracy required by a probabilistic framework. Such framework relies on the evaluation of the statistics of the ink characteristics using an ink reference database and the objective measurement of similarities between ink samples. A complete research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a more reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in a forensic context. This report focuses on the first of the three stages. A calibration process, based on a standard dye ladder, is proposed to improve the reproducibility of ink analysis by HPTLC, when these inks are analysed at different times and/or by different examiners. The impact of this process on the variability between the repetitive analyses of ink samples in various conditions is studied. The results show significant improvements in the reproducibility of ink analysis compared to traditional calibration methods.