The predictive value of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide in children undergooing heart surgery.

Introduction: Low cardiac output syndrome is frequent in childrenafter heart surgery for congenital heart disease and may result in pooroutcome and increased morbidity. In the adult population, preoperativebrain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was shown to be predictive of postoperative complications. In children, the value of preoperative BNP onpostoperative outcome is not so clear. The aim of this study was todetermine the predictive value of preoperative BNP on postoperativeoutcome and low cardiac output syndrome in children after heartsurgery for congenital heart disease.Methods: We examined, retrospectively, the postoperative course of97 pediatric patients (mean age 3.7 years, range 0-14 years old) whounderwent heart surgery in a tertiary care pediatric intensive caresetting. NTproBNP was measured preoperatively in all patients(median 412 pg/ml, range 12-35'000 pg/ml). Patients were divided intothree groups according to their NTproBNP levels (group 1: 0-300 pg/ml, group 2: 300-600 pg/ml, group 3: >600 pg/ml) and then,correlations with postoperative outcomes were examined.Results: We found that patients with a high preoperative BNP requiredmore frequently prolonged (>2 days) mechanical ventilation (33%vs 40% vs 61%, p = 0.045) and stayed more frequently longer than6 days in the intensive care unit (42% vs 50% vs 71%, p = 0.03).However, high preoperative BNP was not correlated with occurrenceof low cardiac output syndrome.Conclusion: Preoperative BNP cannot be used, in children, as areliable and sole predictor of postoperative low cardiac outputsyndrome. However it may help identify, before surgery, those patientsat risk of having a difficult postoperative course.

Diagnostic value of MRI for the detection of suspected placental invasion: Does it depend on observers' experience?

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value of specific MR features for detection of suspected placental invasion according to observers' experience.Methods and Materials: Our study population included 25 pregnant women (mean age 35.16) investigated by prenatal MRI. In twelve out of them placental invasion was histopathologically proven, the 13 other women (52%) without placental invasion served as control group. Multiplanar T1- and T2-weighted sequences had been performed mostly without IV contrast injection (1.5 T). MR examinations of the two groups were rendered anonymous, mixed, then independently and retrospectively reviewed by two senior and two junior radiologists in view of 8 MR features indicating placentar invasion including the degree. Results were compared with surgical diagnosis (placenta normal/increta/accreta/percreta). Interobserver agrement between senior and junior readers were calculated. Stepwise logistic regression and receiver operating (ROC) curvers were performed.Results: Demographics between the two groups were not statistically different. Overall sensitivity and specificity for detecting placentar invasion was 90.9% and 75.0% for senior readers, and 81.8% and 61.8% for junior readers respectively. The most significant MR features indicating placentar invasion were T2 hypointense placental bands, followed by placenta praevia, focally interrupted myometrial border, posterior placental insertion, and heterogeneous placental signal. For each of the evaluated MR features the interobserver agreement kappa between the two senior readers was superior than that between the junior readers, ranging from bad (<0.4) to good (0.4-0.75).Conclusions: MRI can be a reliable and reproducible tool for detection of suspected placentar invasion, however very variable according to the observers' experience.

[(18)F]FDG-PET Standard Uptake Value as a Metabolic Predictor of Bone Marrow Response to Radiation: Impact on Acute and Late Hematological Toxicity in Cervical Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: To quantify the relationship between bone marrow (BM) response to radiation and radiation dose by using (18)F-labeled fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography [(18)F]FDG-PET standard uptake values (SUV) and to correlate these findings with hematological toxicity (HT) in cervical cancer (CC) patients treated with chemoradiation therapy (CRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Seventeen women with a diagnosis of CC were treated with standard doses of CRT. All patients underwent pre- and post-therapy [(18)F]FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT). Hemograms were obtained before and during treatment and 3 months after treatment and at last follow-up. Pelvic bone was autosegmented as total bone marrow (BMTOT). Active bone marrow (BMACT) was contoured based on SUV greater than the mean SUV of BMTOT. The volumes (V) of each region receiving 10, 20, 30, and 40 Gy (V10, V20, V30, and V40, respectively) were calculated. Metabolic volume histograms and voxel SUV map response graphs were created. Relative changes in SUV before and after therapy were calculated by separating SUV voxels into radiation therapy dose ranges of 5 Gy. The relationships among SUV decrease, radiation dose, and HT were investigated using multiple regression models. RESULTS: Mean relative pre-post-therapy SUV reductions in BMTOT and BMACT were 27% and 38%, respectively. BMACT volume was significantly reduced after treatment (from 651.5 to 231.6 cm(3), respectively; P<.0001). BMACT V30 was significantly correlated with a reduction in BMACT SUV (R(2), 0.14; P<.001). The reduction in BMACT SUV significantly correlated with reduction in white blood cells (WBCs) at 3 months post-treatment (R(2), 0.27; P=.04) and at last follow-up (R(2), 0.25; P=.04). Different dosimetric parameters of BMTOT and BMACT correlated with long-term hematological outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The volumes of BMTOT and BMACT that are exposed to even relatively low doses of radiation are associated with a decrease in WBC counts following CRT. The loss in proliferative BM SUV uptake translates into low WBC nadirs after treatment. These results suggest the potential of intensity modulated radiation therapy to spare BMTOT to reduce long-term hematological toxicity.

Mucosal healing and deep remission: What does it mean?

The use of specific terms under different meanings and varying definitions has always been a source of confusion in science. When we point our efforts towards an evidence based medicine for inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) the same is true: Terms such as "mucosal healing" or "deep remission" as endpoints in clinical trials or treatment goals in daily patient care may contribute to misconceptions if meanings change over time or definitions are altered. It appears to be useful to first have a look at the development of terms and their definitions, to assess their intrinsic and context-independent problems and then to analyze the different relevance in present-day clinical studies and trials. The purpose of such an attempt would be to gain clearer insights into the true impact of the clinical findings behind the terms. It may also lead to a better defined use of those terms for future studies. The terms "mucosal healing" and "deep remission" have been introduced in recent years as new therapeutic targets in the treatment of IBD patients. Several clinical trials, cohort studies or inception cohorts provided data that the long term disease course is better, when mucosal healing is achieved. However, it is still unclear whether continued or increased therapeutic measures will aid or improve mucosal healing for patients in clinical remission. Clinical trials are under way to answer this question. Attention should be paid to clearly address what levels of IBD activity are looked at. In the present review article authors aim to summarize the current evidence available on mucosal healing and deep remission and try to highlight their value and position in the everyday decision making for gastroenterologists.

Low predictive value of elevated blood pressure during childhood and adolescence

Background: Screening of elevated blood pressure (BP) in children has been advocated to early identify hypertension. However, identification of children with sustained elevated BP is challenging due to the high BP variability. The value of an elevated BP measure during childhood and adolescence for the prediction of future elevated BP is not well described. Objectives: We assessed the positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive value of high BP for sustained elevated BP in cohorts of children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the African region. Methods: Serial school-based surveys of weight, height, and BP were conducted yearly between 1998-2006 among all students of the country in four school grades (kindergarten [G0, mean age (SD): 5.5 (0.4) yr], G4 [9.2 (0.4) yr], G7 [12.5 (0.4) yr] and G10 (15.6 (0.5) yr]. We constituted three cohorts of children examined twice at 3-4 years interval: 4,557 children examined at G0 and G4, 6,198 at G4 and G7, and 6,094 at G7 and G10. The same automated BP measurement devices were used throughout the study. BP was measured twice at each exam and averaged. Obesity and elevated BP were defined using the CDC (BMI_95th sex-, and age-specific percentile) and the NHBPEP criteria (BP_95th sex-, age-, and height specific percentile), respectively. Results: Prevalence of obesity was 6.1% at G0, 7.1% at G4, 7.5% at G7, and 6.5% at G10. Prevalence of elevated BP was 10.2% at G0, 9.9% at G4, 7.1% at G7, and 8.7% at G10. Among children with elevated BP at initial exam, the PPV of keeping elevated BP was low but increased with age: 13% between G0 and G4, 19% between G4 and G7, and 27% between G7 and G10. Among obese children with elevated BP, the PPV was higher: 33%, 35% and 39% respectively. Overall, the probability for children with normal BP to remain in that category 3-4 years later (NPV) was 92%, 95%, and 93%, respectively. By comparison, the PPV for children initially obese to remain obese was much higher at 71%, 71%, and 62% (G7-G10), respectively. The NPV (i.e. the probability of remaining at normal weight) was 94%, 96%, and 98%, respectively. Conclusion: During childhood and adolescence, having an elevated BP at one occasion is a weak predictor of sustained elevated BP 3-4 years later. In obese children, it is a better predictor.

Monitoring the clinical introduction of a glutamine and antioxidant solution in critically ill trauma and burn patients

OBJECTIVE: Enteral glutamine supplementation and antioxidants have been shown to be beneficial in some categories of critically ill patients. This study investigated the impact on organ function and clinical outcome of an enteral solution enriched with glutamine and antioxidant micronutrients in patients with trauma and with burns. METHODS: This was a prospective study of a historical control group including critically ill, burned and major trauma patients (n = 86, 40 patients with burns and 46 with trauma, 43 in each group) on admission to an intensive care unit in a university hospital (matching for severity, age, and sex). The intervention aimed to deliver a 500-mL enteral solution containing 30 g of glutamine per day, selenium, zinc, and vitamin E (Gln-AOX) for a maximum of 10 d, in addition to control treatment consisting of enteral nutrition in all patients and intravenous trace elements in all burn patients. RESULTS: Patients were comparable at baseline, except for more inhalation injuries in the burn-Gln-AOX group (P = 0.10) and greater neurologic impairment in the trauma-Gln-AOX group (P = 0.022). Intestinal tolerance was good. The full 500-mL dose was rarely delivered, resulting in a low mean glutamine daily dose (22 g for burn patients and 16 g for trauma patients). In burn patients intravenous trace element delivery was superior to the enteral dose. The evolution of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and other outcome variables did not differ significantly between groups. C-reactive protein decreased faster in the Gln-AOX group. CONCLUSION: The Gln-AOX supplement was well tolerated in critically ill, injured patients, but did not improve outcome significantly. The delivery of glutamine below the 0.5-g/kg recommended dose in association with high intravenous trace element substitution doses in burn patients are likely to have blunted the impact by not reaching an efficient treatment dose. Further trials testing higher doses of Gln are required.

Mynodbcsv: Lightweight Zero-Config Database Solution for Handling Very Large CSV Files.

Volumes of data used in science and industry are growing rapidly. When researchers face the challenge of analyzing them, their format is often the first obstacle. Lack of standardized ways of exploring different data layouts requires an effort each time to solve the problem from scratch. Possibility to access data in a rich, uniform manner, e.g. using Structured Query Language (SQL) would offer expressiveness and user-friendliness. Comma-separated values (CSV) are one of the most common data storage formats. Despite its simplicity, with growing file size handling it becomes non-trivial. Importing CSVs into existing databases is time-consuming and troublesome, or even impossible if its horizontal dimension reaches thousands of columns. Most databases are optimized for handling large number of rows rather than columns, therefore, performance for datasets with non-typical layouts is often unacceptable. Other challenges include schema creation, updates and repeated data imports. To address the above-mentioned problems, I present a system for accessing very large CSV-based datasets by means of SQL. It's characterized by: "no copy" approach - data stay mostly in the CSV files; "zero configuration" - no need to specify database schema; written in C++, with boost [1], SQLite [2] and Qt [3], doesn't require installation and has very small size; query rewriting, dynamic creation of indices for appropriate columns and static data retrieval directly from CSV files ensure efficient plan execution; effortless support for millions of columns; due to per-value typing, using mixed text/numbers data is easy; very simple network protocol provides efficient interface for MATLAB and reduces implementation time for other languages. The software is available as freeware along with educational videos on its website [4]. It doesn't need any prerequisites to run, as all of the libraries are included in the distribution package. I test it against existing database solutions using a battery of benchmarks and discuss the results.

High b-value Diffusion-weighted Imaging: A Sensitive Method to Reveal White Matter Changes in Schizophrenia

Background: b-value is the parameter characterizing the intensity of the diffusion weighting during image acquisition. Data acquisition is usually performed with low b value (b~1000 s/mm2). Evidence shows that high b-values (b>2000 s/mm2) are more sensitive to the slow diffusion compartment (SDC) and maybe more sensitive in detecting white matter (WM) anomalies in schizophrenia.Methods: 12 male patients with schizophrenia (mean age 35 +/-3 years) and 16 healthy male controls matched for age were scanned with a low b-value (1000 s/mm2) and a high b-value (4000 s/mm2) protocol. Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) is a measure of the average diffusion distance of water molecules per time unit (mm2/s). ADC maps were generated for all individuals. 8 region of interests (frontal and parietal region bilaterally, centrum semi-ovale bilaterally and anterior and posterior corpus callosum) were manually traced blind to diagnosis.Results: ADC measures acquired with high b-value imaging were more sensitive in detecting differences between schizophrenia patients and healthy controls than low b-value imaging with a gain in significance by a factor of 20- 100 times despite the lower image Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Increased ADC was identified in patient's WM (p=0.00015) with major contributions from left and right centrum semi-ovale and to a lesser extent right parietal region.Conclusions: Our results may be related to the sensitivity of high b-value imaging to the SDC believed to reflect mainly the intra-axonal and myelin bound water pool. High b-value imaging might be more sensitive and specific to WM anomalies in schizophrenia than low b-value imaging

Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking.

BACKGROUND: Visual analog scales (VAS) are sometimes used to assess change constructs that are often considered critical for change. Aims of Study: 1.) To determine the association of readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change alcohol and tobacco use at baseline with the risk for drinking (more than 21 drinks per week/6 drinks or more on a single occasion more than once per month) and smoking (one or more cigarettes per day) six months later. 2.) To determine the association of readiness, importance and confidence with alcohol (number of drinks/week, number of binge drinking episodes/month) and tobacco (number of cigarettes/day) use at six months. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from a multi-substance brief intervention randomized trial. A sample of 461 Swiss young men was analyzed as a prospective cohort. Participants were assessed at baseline and six months later on alcohol and tobacco use, and at baseline on readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change constructs, using visual analog scales ranging from 1-10 for drinking and smoking behaviors. Regression models controlling for receipt of brief intervention were employed for each change construct. The lowest level (1-4) of each scale was the reference group that was compared to the medium (5-7) and high (8-10) levels. RESULTS: Among the 377 subjects reporting unhealthy alcohol use at baseline, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking scores were 3.9 (3.0), 2.7 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0), respectively. At follow-up, 108 (29%) reported no unhealthy alcohol use. Readiness was not associated with being risk-free at follow-up, but high importance (OR 2.94; 1.15, 7.50) and high confidence (OR 2.88; 1.46, 5.68) were. Among the 255 smokers at baseline, mean readiness, importance and confidence to change smoking scores were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.7), respectively. At follow-up, 13% (33) reported no longer smoking. Neither readiness nor importance was associated with being a non-smoker, whereas high confidence (OR 3.29; 1.12, 9.62) was. CONCLUSIONS: High confidence in ability to change was associated with favorable outcomes for both drinking and smoking, whereas high importance was associated only with a favorable drinking outcome. This study points to the value of confidence as an important predictor of successful change for both drinking and smoking, and shows the value of importance in predicting successful changes in alcohol use. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN78822107.

Value of positron emission tomography in full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies.

Preoperative imaging for resection of chest wall malignancies is generally performed by computed tomography (CT). We evaluated the role of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in planning full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies. We retrospectively included 18 consecutive patients operated from 2004 to 2006 at our institution. Tumor extent was measured by CT and PET, using the two largest perpendicular tumor extensions in the chest wall plane to compute the tumor surface assuming an elliptical shape. Imaging measurements were compared to histopathology assessment of tumor borders. CT assessment consistently overestimated the tumor size as compared to PET (+64% vs. +1%, P<0.001). Moreover, PET was significantly better than CT at defining the size of lesions >24 cm(2) corresponding to a mean diameter >5.5 cm or an ellipse of >4 cm x 7.6 cm (positive predictive value 80% vs. 44% and specificity 93% vs. 64%, respectively). Metabolic PET imaging was superior to CT for defining the extent of chest wall tumors, particularly for tumors with a diameter >5.5 cm. PET can complement CT in planning full-thickness chest wall resection for malignancies, but its true value remains to be determined in larger, prospective studies.

Hand-disinfectant alcoholic vapors in incubators

Objective: To analyze the atmosphere inside incubators regarding alcoholic solvent such as isopropanol or ethanol which are commonly used in hand disinfecting solutions. Design: Observational. Setting: The third level neonatal unit of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland. Patients: Nine neonates with median (range) gestational age of 29 4/7 (25 5/7-39 0/7) weeks and birth weight of 960 (550-3050) grams. All neonates were inside incubators. Interventions: Alcoholic vapors inside incubators were directly and cumulatively measured by photoionisation and gas chromatography respectively after absorption on a charcoal sampling tube. Results: Eleven studies (mean study time: 230 ± 19 minutes) were performed. Highly variable isopropanol/ethanol concentrations profiles were found inside incubators. Peak value for isopropanol was 1982 part per million and for ethanol was 906 part per million. Conclusions: Incubators' inner atmosphere can be highly polluted by alcohol vapors. To reduce them staff should respect long evaporation time between hands disinfection and manipulations inside incubators. The use of an ethanol-based disinfecting solution, because of its short evaporation time, could be favored. As alcohol vapor toxicity for neonate remains largely unknown, further studies could be welcome.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Predictive Value of Readiness, Importance, and Confidence in Ability to Change Drinking and Smoking

Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.

Prognostic value of early MR imaging in term infants with severe perinatal asphyxia.

The prognostic significance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the neonatal period was studied prospectively in 43 term infants with perinatal asphyxia. MRI was performed between 1 and 14 days after birth with a high field system (2.35 Tesla). Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed by a standardized neurological examination and the Griffiths developmental test at a mean age of 18.9 months. The predictive value of the various MRI patterns was as follows: Severe diffuse brain injury (pattern AII+III; n = 7) and lesions of thalamus and basal ganglia (pattern C; n = 5) were strongly associated with poor outcome and greatly reduced head growth. Mild diffuse brain injury (pattern AI; n = 7), parasagittal lesions (B; n = 7), periventricular hyperintensity (D; n = 2), focal brain necrosis and hemorrhage (E; n = 3) and periventricular hypointense stripes (on T2-weighted images; F; n = 3) led in one third of the infants to minor neurological disturbances and mild developmental delay. Infants with normal MRI findings (G; n = 9) developed normally with the exception of one infant who was mildly delayed at 18 months. The results indicate that MRI examination during the first two weeks of life is of prognostic significance in term infants suffering from perinatal asphyxia. Severe hypoxic-ischemic brain lesions were associated highly significantly with poor neuro-developmental outcome, whereas infants with inconspicuous MRI developed normally.

Alcohol drinking and cardiovascular risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption

Résumé : Description : Ce travail de thèse évalue l'impact de la consommation importante d'alcool sur les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire et l'estimation du risque cardiovasculaire à 10 ans (risque de développer une maladie coronarienne}, dans une population avec une consommation moyenne élevée d'alcool. La consommation modérée d'alcool a été liée à un risque plus faible de développer une maladie coronarienne. Cependant, les données concernant la consommation importante d'alcool et le risque de développer une maladie coronarienne sont conflictuelles. Il y a également peu d'études dans lesquelles les consommations importantes d'alcool ont pu être évaluées en raison du petit nombre de sujets présentant une telle consommation. Résultats: Nous avons utilisé les données de l'étude CoLaus, une étude populationnelle qui inclut des adultes, âgés de 35 à 75 ans, de la ville de Lausanne. Nous avons inclus 5'769 participants, sans maladie cardiovasculaire, pour lesquels la consommation d'alcool d'une semaine a été catégorisée en 0, 1 à 6, 7 à 13, 14 à 20, 21 à 27, 28 à 34 et >=35 verres/semaine et en non-consommateur (0 verre/semaine), consommateur modéré (1 à 13 verres/semaine), important (14 à 34 verres/semaine) et très important (>= 35). La tension artérielle et les lipides ont été mesurés et le risque de développer une maladie coronarienne à 10 ans a été calculé en utilisant le score de Framingham. 73% des participants consommaient de l'alcool; 16% étaient des consommateurs importants et 2% des consommateurs très importants. L'analyse rnultivariée a montré une augmentation du cholestérol HDL avec la consommation d'alcool (de 1.570.01 [moyenne +- erreur standard] chez les non consommateurs à 1.880.03 mmol/L chez les consommateurs très importants), des triglycérides (1.17+-1.01 à 1.32+-1.05 mmol/L) et des valeurs de tension artérielle systolique (127.4+-0.4 à 132.2+-.4 mm Hg) et diastolique (78.7+-0.3 à 81.7+-0.9 mm Hg, toutes les valeurs de p pour trend<0.001). Quant au risque de développer une maladie coronarienne à 10 ans, il a augmenté de 4.31%+-0.10 à 4.90%+-0.37 (p=0.03) avec la consommation d'alcool, en décrivant une courbe en J. En examinant le type de consommation, on a vu que la consommation de vin a plus d'effet sur l'augmentation des valeurs de cholestérol HDL, alors que la consommation de bière ou de spiritueux a plus d'effet sur l'augmentation des valeurs de triglycérides. Conclusions et perspectives: Nos résultats montrent qu'en ce qui concerne l'estimation du risque cardiovasculaire à 10 ans, l'effet protecteur de la consommation d'alcool disparaît pour des consommations très importantes, car l'effet bénéfique des valeurs augmentées de cholestérol HDL est contrecarré par l'augmentation des valeurs de tension artérielle. Quant aux différents types d'alcool, d'autres études sont nécessaires pour mieux évaluer leur effet spécifique sur les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire.