Bayesian networks and the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science

Résumé Ce travail de thèse étudie des moyens de formalisation permettant d'assister l'expert forensique dans la gestion des facteurs influençant l'évaluation des indices scientifiques, tout en respectant des procédures d'inférence établies et acceptables. Selon une vue préconisée par une partie majoritaire de la littérature forensique et juridique - adoptée ici sans réserve comme point de départ - la conceptualisation d'une procédure évaluative est dite 'cohérente' lors qu'elle repose sur une implémentation systématique de la théorie des probabilités. Souvent, par contre, la mise en oeuvre du raisonnement probabiliste ne découle pas de manière automatique et peut se heurter à des problèmes de complexité, dus, par exemple, à des connaissances limitées du domaine en question ou encore au nombre important de facteurs pouvant entrer en ligne de compte. En vue de gérer ce genre de complications, le présent travail propose d'investiguer une formalisation de la théorie des probabilités au moyen d'un environment graphique, connu sous le nom de Réseaux bayesiens (Bayesian networks). L'hypothèse principale que cette recherche envisage d'examiner considère que les Réseaux bayesiens, en concert avec certains concepts accessoires (tels que des analyses qualitatives et de sensitivité), constituent une ressource clé dont dispose l'expert forensique pour approcher des problèmes d'inférence de manière cohérente, tant sur un plan conceptuel que pratique. De cette hypothèse de travail, des problèmes individuels ont été extraits, articulés et abordés dans une série de recherches distinctes, mais interconnectées, et dont les résultats - publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture - sont présentés sous forme d'annexes. D'un point de vue général, ce travail apporte trois catégories de résultats. Un premier groupe de résultats met en évidence, sur la base de nombreux exemples touchant à des domaines forensiques divers, l'adéquation en termes de compatibilité et complémentarité entre des modèles de Réseaux bayesiens et des procédures d'évaluation probabilistes existantes. Sur la base de ces indications, les deux autres catégories de résultats montrent, respectivement, que les Réseaux bayesiens permettent également d'aborder des domaines auparavant largement inexplorés d'un point de vue probabiliste et que la disponibilité de données numériques dites 'dures' n'est pas une condition indispensable pour permettre l'implémentation des approches proposées dans ce travail. Le présent ouvrage discute ces résultats par rapport à la littérature actuelle et conclut en proposant les Réseaux bayesiens comme moyen d'explorer des nouvelles voies de recherche, telles que l'étude de diverses formes de combinaison d'indices ainsi que l'analyse de la prise de décision. Pour ce dernier aspect, l'évaluation des probabilités constitue, dans la façon dont elle est préconisée dans ce travail, une étape préliminaire fondamentale de même qu'un moyen opérationnel.

Raman analysis of multilayer automotive paints in forensic science: measurement variability and depth profile?

The aim of this work is to study the influence of several analytical parameters on the variability of Raman spectra of paint samples. In the present study, microtome thin section and direct (no preparation) analysis are considered as sample preparation. In order to evaluate their influence on the measures, an experimental design such as 'fractional full factorial' with seven factors (including the sampling process) is applied, for a total of 32 experiments representing 160 measures. Once the influence of sample preparation highlighted, a depth profile of a paint sample is carried out by changing the focusing plane in order to measure the colored layer under a clearcoat. This is undertaken in order to avoid sample preparation such a microtome sectioning. Finally, chemometric treatments such as principal component analysis are applied to the resulting spectra. The findings of this study indicate the importance of sample preparation, or more specifically, the surface roughness, on the variability of the measurements on a same sample. Moreover, the depth profile experiment highlights the influence of the refractive index of the upper layer (clearcoat) when measuring through a transparent layer.

Study of isotopic variations in black powder: reflections on the use of stable isotopes in forensic science for source inference.

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has recently made its appearance in the forensic community. This high-precision technology has already been applied to a broad range of forensic fields such as illicit drugs, explosives and flammable liquids, where current, routinely used techniques have limited powers of discrimination. The conclusions drawn from the majority of these IRMS studies appear to be very promising. Used in a comparative process, as in food or drug authentication, the measurement of stable isotope ratios is a new and remarkable analytical tool for the discrimination or the identification of a substance with a definite source or origin. However, the research consists mostly of preliminary studies. The significance of this 'new' piece of information needs to be evaluated in light of a forensic framework to assess the actual potential and validity of IRMS, considering the characteristics of each field. Through the isotopic study of black powder, this paper aims at illustrating the potential of the method and the limitations of current knowledge in stable isotopes when facing forensic problems.

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry as a tool for source inference in forensic science: a critical review

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been used in numerous fields of forensic science in a source inference perspective. This review compiles the studies published on the application of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to the traditional fields of forensic science so far. It completes the review of Benson et al. [1] and synthesises the extent of knowledge already gathered in the following fields: illicit drugs, flammable liquids, human provenancing, microtraces, explosives and other specific materials (packaging tapes, safety matches, plastics, etc.). For each field, a discussion assesses the state of science and highlights the relevance of the information in a forensic context. Through the different discussions which mark out the review, the potential and limitations of IRMS, as well as the needs and challenges of future studies are emphasized. The paper elicits the various dimensions of the source which can be obtained from the isotope information and demonstrates the transversal nature of IRMS as a tool for source inference.

Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

An innovative and shared methodology for event reconstruction using images in forensic science

This study presents an innovative methodology for forensic science image analysis for event reconstruction. The methodology is based on experiences from real cases. It provides real added value to technical guidelines such as standard operating procedures (SOPs) and enriches the community of practices at stake in this field. This bottom-up solution outlines the many facets of analysis and the complexity of the decision-making process. Additionally, the methodology provides a backbone for articulating more detailed and technical procedures and SOPs. It emerged from a grounded theory approach; data from individual and collective interviews with eight Swiss and nine European forensic image analysis experts were collected and interpreted in a continuous, circular and reflexive manner. Throughout the process of conducting interviews and panel discussions, similarities and discrepancies were discussed in detail to provide a comprehensive picture of practices and points of view and to ultimately formalise shared know-how. Our contribution sheds light on the complexity of the choices, actions and interactions along the path of data collection and analysis, enhancing both the researchers' and participants' reflexivity.

Fetal laser therapy: applications in the management of fetal pathologies.

Fetoscopic coagulation of placental anastomoses is the treatment of choice for severe twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome. In the present day, fetal laser therapy is also used to treat amniotic bands, chorioangiomas, sacrococcygeal teratomas, lower urinary tract obstructions and chest masses, all of which will be reviewed in this article. Amniotic band syndrome can cause limb amputation by impairing downstream blood flow. Large chorioangiomas (>4 cm), sacrococcygeal teratomas or fetal hyperechoic lung lesions can lead to fetal compromise and hydrops by vascular steal phenomenon or compression. Renal damage, bladder dysfunction and lastly death because of pulmonary hypolasia may be the result of megacystis caused by a posterior urethral valve. The prognosis of these pathologies can be dismal, and therapy options are limited, which has brought fetal laser therapy to the forefront. Management options discussed here are laser release of amniotic bands, laser coagulation of the placental or fetal tumor feeding vessels and laser therapy by fetal cystoscopy. This review, largely based on case reports, does not intend to provide a level of evidence supporting laser therapy over other treatment options. Centralized evaluation by specialists using strict selection criteria and long-term follow-up of these rare cases are now needed to prove the value of endoscopic or ultrasound-guided laser therapy.

Dual-Energy CT: Basic Principles, Technical Approaches, and Applications in Musculoskeletal Imaging (Part 1).

In recent years, technological advances have allowed manufacturers to implement dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) on clinical scanners. With its unique ability to differentiate basis materials by their atomic number, DECT has opened new perspectives in imaging. DECT has been used successfully in musculoskeletal imaging with applications ranging from detection, characterization, and quantification of crystal and iron deposits; to simulation of noncalcium (improving the visualization of bone marrow lesions) or noniodine images. Furthermore, the data acquired with DECT can be postprocessed to generate monoenergetic images of varying kiloelectron volts, providing new methods for image contrast optimization as well as metal artifact reduction. The first part of this article reviews the basic principles and technical aspects of DECT including radiation dose considerations. The second part focuses on applications of DECT to musculoskeletal imaging including gout and other crystal-induced arthropathies, virtual noncalcium images for the study of bone marrow lesions, the study of collagenous structures, applications in computed tomography arthrography, as well as the detection of hemosiderin and metal particles.

Dual-Energy CT: Basic Principles, Technical Approaches, and Applications in Musculoskeletal Imaging (Part 2).

In recent years, technological advances have allowed manufacturers to implement dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) on clinical scanners. With its unique ability to differentiate basis materials by their atomic number, DECT has opened new perspectives in imaging. DECT has been successfully used in musculoskeletal imaging with applications ranging from detection, characterization, and quantification of crystal and iron deposits, to simulation of noncalcium (improving the visualization of bone marrow lesions) or noniodine images. Furthermore, the data acquired with DECT can be postprocessed to generate monoenergetic images of varying kiloelectron volts, providing new methods for image contrast optimization as well as metal artifact reduction. The first part of this article reviews the basic principles and technical aspects of DECT including radiation dose considerations. The second part focuses on applications of DECT to musculoskeletal imaging including gout and other crystal-induced arthropathies, virtual noncalcium images for the study of bone marrow lesions, the study of collagenous structures, applications in computed tomography arthrography, as well as the detection of hemosiderin and metal particles.