138 resultados para Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks from Perils


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Because of the development of modern transportation facilities, an ever rising number of individuals including many patients with preexisting diseases visit high-altitude locations (>2500 m). High-altitude exposure triggers a series of physiologic responses intended to maintain an adequate tissue oxygenation. Even in normal subjects, there is enormous interindividual variability in these responses that may be further amplified by environmental factors such as cold temperature, low humidity, exercise, and stress. These adaptive mechanisms, although generally tolerated by most healthy subjects, may induce major problems in patients with preexisting cardiovascular diseases in which the functional reserves are already limited. Preexposure assessment of patients helps to minimize risk and detect contraindications to high-altitude exposure. Moreover, the great variability and nonpredictability of the adaptive response should encourage physicians counseling such patients to adapt a cautionary approach. Here, we will briefly review how high-altitude adjustments may interfere with and aggravate/decompensate preexisting cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, we will provide practical recommendations on how to investigate and counsel patients with cardiovascular disease desiring to travel to high-altitude locations.

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The method of instrumental variable (referred to as Mendelian randomization when the instrument is a genetic variant) has been initially developed to infer on a causal effect of a risk factor on some outcome of interest in a linear model. Adapting this method to nonlinear models, however, is known to be problematic. In this paper, we consider the simple case when the genetic instrument, the risk factor, and the outcome are all binary. We compare via simulations the usual two-stages estimate of a causal odds-ratio and its adjusted version with a recently proposed estimate in the context of a clinical trial with noncompliance. In contrast to the former two, we confirm that the latter is (under some conditions) a valid estimate of a causal odds-ratio defined in the subpopulation of compliers, and we propose its use in the context of Mendelian randomization. By analogy with a clinical trial with noncompliance, compliers are those individuals for whom the presence/absence of the risk factor X is determined by the presence/absence of the genetic variant Z (i.e., for whom we would observe X = Z whatever the alleles randomly received at conception). We also recall and illustrate the huge variability of instrumental variable estimates when the instrument is weak (i.e., with a low percentage of compliers, as is typically the case with genetic instruments for which this proportion is frequently smaller than 10%) where the inter-quartile range of our simulated estimates was up to 18 times higher compared to a conventional (e.g., intention-to-treat) approach. We thus conclude that the need to find stronger instruments is probably as important as the need to develop a methodology allowing to consistently estimate a causal odds-ratio.

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BACKGROUND: Over 50% of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) present with locoregionally advanced disease. Those at intermediate-to-high risk of recurrence after definitive therapy exhibit advanced disease based on tumour size or lymph node involvement, non-oropharynx primary sites, human papillomavirus (HPV)-negative oropharyngeal cancer, or HPV-positive oropharynx cancer with smoking history (>10-pack-years). Non-surgical approaches include concurrent chemoradiotherapy, induction chemotherapy followed by definitive radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, or radiotherapy alone. Following locoregional therapies (including surgical salvage of residual cervical nodes), no standard intervention exists. Overexpression of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), an ErbB family member, is associated with poor prognosis in HNSCC. EGFR-targeted cetuximab is the only targeted therapy that impacts overall survival and is approved for HNSCC in the USA or Europe. However, resistance often occurs, and new approaches, such as targeting multiple ErbB family members, may be required. Afatinib, an irreversible ErbB family blocker, demonstrated antiproliferative activity in preclinical models and comparable clinical efficacy with cetuximab in a randomized phase II trial in recurrent or metastatic HNSCC. LUX-Head & Neck 2, a phase III study, will assess adjuvant afatinib versus placebo following chemoradiotherapy in primary unresected locoregionally advanced intermediate-to-high-risk HNSCC. METHODS/DESIGN: Patients with primary unresected locoregionally advanced HNSCC, in good clinical condition with unfavourable risk of recurrence, and no evidence of disease after chemoradiotherapy will be randomized 2:1 to oral once-daily afatinib (40 mg starting dose) or placebo. As HPV status will not be determined for eligibility, unfavourable risk is defined as non-oropharynx primary site or oropharynx cancer in patients with a smoking history (>10 pack-years). Treatment will continue for 18 months or until recurrence or unacceptable adverse events occur. The primary endpoint measure is duration of disease-free survival; secondary endpoint measures are disease-free survival rate at 2 years, overall survival, health-related quality of life and safety. DISCUSSION: Given the unmet need in the adjuvant treatment of intermediate-to-high-risk HNSCC patients, it is expected that LUX-Head & Neck 2 will provide new insights into treatment in this setting and might demonstrate the ability of afatinib to significantly improve disease-free survival, compared with placebo. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01345669.

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Background: Cardio-vascular diseases (CVD), their well established risk factors (CVRF) and mental disorders are common and co-occur more frequently than would be expected by chance. However, the pathogenic mechanisms and course determinants of both CVD and mental disorders have only been partially identified.Methods/Design: Comprehensive follow-up of CVRF and CVD with a psychiatric exam in all subjects who participated in the baseline cross-sectional CoLaus study (2003-2006) (n=6'738) which also included a comprehensive genetic assessment. The somatic investigation will include a shortened questionnaire on CVRF, CV events and new CVD since baseline and measurements of the same clinical and biological variables as at baseline. In addition, pro-inflammatory markers, persistent pain and sleep patterns and disorders will be assessed. In the case of a new CV event, detailed information will be abstracted from medical records. Similarly, data on the cause of death will be collected from the Swiss National Death Registry. The comprehensive psychiatric investigation of the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study will use contemporary epidemiological methods including semi-structured diagnostic interviews, experienced clinical interviewers, standardized diagnostic criteria including threshold according to DSM-IV and sub-threshold syndromes and supplementary information on risk and protective factors for disorders. In addition, screening for objective cognitive impairment will be performed in participants older than 65 years.Discussion: The combined CoLaus/PsyCoLaus sample provides a unique opportunity to obtain prospective data on the interplay between CVRF/CVD and mental disorders, overcoming limitations of previous research by bringing together a comprehensive investigation of both CVRF and mental disorders as well as a large number of biological variables and a genome-wide genetic assessment in participants recruited from the general population.

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Background Impaired glucose regulation (IGR) is associated with detrimental cardiovascular outcomes such as cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVD risk factors) or intima-media thickness (IMT). Our aim was to examine whether these associations are mediated by body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (waist) or fasting serum insulin (insulin) in a population in the African region. Methods Major CVD risk factors (systolic blood pressure, smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol,) were measured in a random sample of adults aged 25-64 in the Seychelles (n=1255, participation rate: 80.2%). According to the criteria of the American Diabetes Association, IGR was divided in four ordered categories: 1) normal fasting glucose (NFG), 2) impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and normal glucose tolerance (IFG/NGT), 3) IFG and impaired glucose tolerance (IFG/IGT), and 4) diabetes mellitus (DM). Carotid and femoral IMT was assessed by ultrasound (n=496). Results Age-adjusted levels of the major CVD risk factors worsened gradually across IGR categories (NFG < IFG/NGT < IFG/IGT < DM), particularly HDL-cholesterol and blood pressure (p for trend <0.001). These relationships were marginally attenuated upon further adjustment for waist, BMI or insulin (whether considered alone or combined) and most of these relationships remained significant. With regards to IMT, the association was null with IFG/NGT, weak with IFG/IGT and stronger with DM (all more markedly at femoral than carotid levels). The associations between IMT and IFG/IGT or DM (adjusted by age and major CVD risk factors) decreased only marginally upon further adjustment for BMI, waist or insulin. Further adjustment for family history of diabetes did not alter the results. Conclusions We found graded relationships between IGR categories and both major CVD risk factors and carotid/femoral IMT. These relationships were only partly accounted for by BMI, waist and insulin. This suggests that increased CVD-risk associated with IGR is also mediated by factors other than the considered markers of adiposity and insulin resistance. The results also imply that IGR and associated major CVD risk factors should be systematically screened and appropriately managed.

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OBJECTIVE: This study reports the frequency of alcohol use and associated tobacco and drug use among emergency department (ED) patients, in order to increase physician awareness and treatment of women and men seeking care in ED settings. METHOD: All adults seen in the ED at the University Hospital in Lausanne, Switzerland, between 11 AM and 11 PM were screened by direct interview for at-risk drinking, tobacco use, drug use, and depression during an 18-month period. RESULTS: A total of 8,599 patients (4,006 women and 4,593 men) participated in the screening procedure and provided full data on the variables in our analysis. The mean age was 51.9 years for women and 45.0 years for men; 57.5% (n = 2,304) of women and 58.5% (n = 2,688) of men were being treated for trauma. Based on guidelines of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, 13.1% (n = 523) of the women were at-risk drinkers, 57.3% (n = 2,301) were low-risk drinkers, and 29.6% (n = 1,182) were abstinent. Among men, 32.8% (n = 1,507) met criteria for at-risk drinking, 51.8% (n = 2,380) met criteria for low-risk drinking, and 15.4% (n = 706) were abstinent. Younger individuals (ages 18-30) had significantly higher rates of episodic heavy drinking episodes, whereas at-risk older patients were more likely to drink on a daily basis. A binary model found that women and men who drank at at-risk levels are more likely to use tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 2.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0-3.08) and illicit drugs (OR = 5.91, CI: 3.32- 10.54) compared with abstinent and low-risk drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports systematic alcohol screening of women and men seen in EDs and suggests that patterns of alcohol and drug use vary by age and gender.

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Activation of the Janus Kinase 2/Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription 3 (JAK2/STAT3) pathway is known to play a key role in cardiogenesis and to afford cardioprotection against ischemia-reperfusion in adult. However, involvement of JAK2/STAT3 pathway and its interaction with other signaling pathways in developing heart transiently submitted to anoxia remains to be explored. Hearts isolated from 4-day-old chick embryos were submitted to anoxia (30 min) and reoxygenation (80 min) with or without the antioxidant MPG, the JAK2/STAT3 inhibitor AG490 or the PhosphoInositide-3-Kinase (PI3K)/Akt inhibitor LY-294002. Time course of phosphorylation of STAT3α(tyrosine705) and Reperfusion Injury Salvage Kinase (RISK) proteins [PI3K, Akt, Glycogen Synthase Kinase 3beta (GSK3beta), Extracellular signal-Regulated Kinase 2 (ERK2)] was determined in homogenate and in enriched nuclear and cytoplasmic fractions of the ventricle. STAT3 DNA-binding was determined. The chrono-, dromo- and inotropic disturbances were also investigated by electrocardiogram and mechanical recordings. Phosphorylation of STAT3α(tyr705) was increased by reoxygenation, reduced (~50%) by MPG or AG490 but not affected by LY-294002. STAT3 and GSK3beta were detected both in nuclear and cytoplasmic fractions while PI3K, Akt and ERK2 were restricted to cytoplasm. Reoxygenation led to nuclear accumulation of STAT3 but unexpectedly without DNA-binding. AG490 decreased the reoxygenation-induced phosphorylation of Akt and ERK2 and phosphorylation/inhibition of GSK3beta in the nucleus, exclusively. Inhibition of JAK2/STAT3 delayed recovery of atrial rate, worsened variability of cardiac cycle length and prolonged arrhythmias as compared to control hearts. Thus, besides its nuclear translocation without transcriptional activity, oxyradicals-activated STAT3α can rapidly interact with RISK proteins present in nucleus and cytoplasm, without dual interaction, and reduce the anoxia-reoxygenation-induced arrhythmias in the embryonic heart.

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Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.

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This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

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BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. METHODS: In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. RESULTS: A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9 × 10(-4)). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06-1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16-1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10-2.49), ≥ 1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06-1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17-2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD.

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The aim was to examine the capacity of commonly used type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk scores to predict overall mortality. The US-based NHANES III (n = 3138; 982 deaths) and the Swiss-based CoLaus study (n = 3946; 191 deaths) were used. The predictive value of eight T2DM risk scores regarding overall mortality was tested. The Griffin score, based on few self-reported parameters, presented the best (NHANES III) and second best (CoLaus) predictive capacity. Generally, the predictive capacity of scores based on clinical (anthropometrics, lifestyle, history) and biological (blood parameters) data was not better than of scores based solely on clinical self-reported data. T2DM scores can be validly used to predict mortality risk in general populations without diabetes. Comparison with other scores could further show whether such scores also suit as a screening tool for quick overall health risk assessment.

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Systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (SJIA) is an inflammatory condition characterized by fever, lymphadenopathy, arthritis, rash and serositis. Systemic inflammation has been associated with dysregulation of the innate immune system, suggesting that SJIA is an autoinflammatory disorder. IL-1 and IL-6 play a major role in the pathogenesis of SJIA, and treatment with IL-1 and IL-6 inhibitors has shown to be highly effective. However, complications of SJIA, including macrophage activation syndrome, limitations in functional outcome by arthritis and long-term damage from chronic inflammation, continue to be a major issue in SJIA patients' care. Translational research leading to a profound understanding of the cytokine crosstalk in SJIA and the identification of risk factors for SJIA complications will help to improve long-term outcome.

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OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to statistically model the relative increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) per year older in Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) and to compare this with the relative increased risk of CVD per year older in general population risk equations. METHODS: We analysed three endpoints: myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD: MI or invasive coronary procedure) and CVD (CHD or stroke). We fitted a number of parametric age effects, adjusting for known risk factors and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. The best-fitting age effect was determined using the Akaike information criterion. We compared the ageing effect from D:A:D with that from the general population risk equations: the Framingham Heart Study, CUORE and ASSIGN risk scores. RESULTS: A total of 24 323 men were included in analyses. Crude MI, CHD and CVD event rates per 1000 person-years increased from 2.29, 3.11 and 3.65 in those aged 40-45 years to 6.53, 11.91 and 15.89 in those aged 60-65 years, respectively. The best-fitting models included inverse age for MI and age + age(2) for CHD and CVD. In D:A:D there was a slowly accelerating increased risk of CHD and CVD per year older, which appeared to be only modest yet was consistently raised compared with the risk in the general population. The relative risk of MI with age was not different between D:A:D and the general population. CONCLUSIONS: We found only limited evidence of accelerating increased risk of CVD with age in D:A:D compared with the general population. The absolute risk of CVD associated with HIV infection remains uncertain.