46 resultados para Hierarchical partitioning analysis
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Summary In his theory On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection (1859), Darwin describes evolution as a gradual change in population over time and that natural selection is a process that caused evolution. Because quantitative variation in species is partly influenced by several genes and thus heritable, association between levels of genetic variation at neutral markers and at quantitative traits and their partitioning within and among populations are important to study mechanisms that drive evolution in populations. Most studies addressing quantitative variation in plants focused on morphological and life history traits but not in traits affecting reproductive success. The aim of this thesis is to better understand how patterns of variation for neutral molecular markers and phenotypic traits drive the evolution of reproduction and defensive mechanisms in six European populations of Silene latifolia, a dioecious plant species. We found evidence for extremely high within and between population variation at six microsatellite loci and at most quantitative traits studied in plants grown under standardized conditions (morphology, life history and reproductive traits). Interestingly, there was clinal variation between age at first flowering and latitude. This pattern is likely due to natural selection since differentiation of this trait was high, heritable and probably higher than differentiation at neutral markers. Our study focused on sex specific selective pressures: mechanisms of intersexual coadaptation and defence mechanism against the seed predator Hadena bicruris. To address divergence at reproductive traits, we studied male and female population of origin effects and in particular pollen competitive ability on male post-pollination success in the study populations with within and between populations crosses. We crossed the same female plant with pollen from a male within the same population of origin and pollen from two males from two distinct populations, using a fixed tester male as a competitor. Additionally, we conducted control crosses with pollen from each male as a single donor. We analysed paternity success of each competitor with two microsatellite loci, seed set and offspring fitness. Male population of origin showed significant among-population variation for siring success at pollen competition. In vitro pollen germination rate showed heritable variation among populations and was positively correlated to siring success. Local or foreign pollen did not have a consistent advantage. Furthermore, female population of origin affected the outcome of pollen competition in some populations. There was no difference of seed set or offspring fitness in within/ between population crosses. This suggests that reproductive divergence may occur via pollen competition in Silene latifolia. The specialist seed predator Hadena bicruris may also induce divergence between populations. We tested potential constitutive and induced defence mechanisms against the specialist predator Hadena bicruris. Because fruit wall thickness is smaller in the invasive range (Northern America) were the moth is absent, this suggests that a thicker fruit wall is a potentially defensive trait against larval attack, and that relaxed selection in the absence of the seed predator has resulted in an evolutionary loss of this defence in the invasive range. Fruit wall thickness was different among three populations. Experimental exposure to moth eggs increased fruit abortion. Fruits built after attack on exposed plants did not have thicker fruit walls compared to fruits on non-exposed plants. Furthermore, fruits with thicker fruit walls were not less profitable, nor did they require longer handling time when exposed to larvae, suggesting no defensive role of fruit wall thickness. Our results show that there is high molecular and phenotypic variation in Silene latifolia and that traits potentially involved in reproductive success both for intra-specific (between sexes) and inter-specific interactions are heritable. Different selective forces may thus interact and cause differential evolution of geographically separated Silene latifolia populations in Europe, leading to the observed differentiation. Résumé Dans sa théorie de l'évolution, L'origine des espèces, ch. 4 (1859), Darwin décrit l'évolution comme un processus continu au cours du temps à l'intérieur de populations et que la sélection naturelle en est le moteur. La variation quantitative est en partie déterminée par plusieurs gènes, donc transmissible à la descendance. Associer le niveau de variation génétique à des marqueurs neutres au niveau de la variation à des traits quantitatifs, ainsi que la répartition à l'intérieur et entre les populations d'une espèce donnée de cette variation, sont importants dans la compréhension des forces évolutives. La plupart des études scientifiques sur la variation quantitative chez les plantes se sont intéressées à la morphologie et à la phénologie mais pas aux caractères impliqués dans le succès reproducteur. L'objectif de cette thèse est de mieux comprendre comment la répartition de la variation à des marqueurs neutres et des caractères quantitatifs influence l'évolution de la reproduction et des mécanismes de défense dans six populations Européennes de l'espèce dioïque Silene latifolia. Nous avons mis en évidence une grande diversité intra et inter-population à six loci microsatellites ainsi qu'à la plupart des caractères quantitatifs mesurés (morphologie, phénologie et traits reproducteurs) sur des plantes cultivées dans des conditions standardisées. Un résultat intéressant est la présence d'un cline latitudinal pour l'âge à la floraison. Ceci est probablement une conséquence de la sélection naturelle, puisque ce caractère est différencié entre les populations étudiées, héritable et que la différenciation de ce trait est supérieure à la différenciation des marqueurs neutres étudiés. Notre étude a ensuite porté plus précisément sur les pressions de sélection spécifiques aux sexes : la coadaptation entre les sexes et les mécanismes de défense contre l'insecte granivore Hadena bicruris. Afin d'évaluer la divergence sur les traits reproducteurs, nous avons étudié les effets des populations d'origine des mâles et des femelles et en particulier le succès reproducteur des mâles après pollinisation à l'aide de croisements inter et intra-population. Nous avons pollinisé la même femelle avec du pollen provenant d'un mâle de la même population ainsi qu'avec le pollen de deux mâles provenant de deux autres populations en situation de compétition avec un pollen provenant d'une population test. Des croisements contrôle ont été réalisés avec les mêmes mâles en pollinisation pure. Nous avons évalué le succès reproducteur de chaque mâle à l'aide d'analyses de paternité ainsi que la production de graines et la fitness de la descendance. L'origine du mâle avait un effet sur la paternité. Le taux de croissance in vitro du pollen est un caractère héritable et a eu un effet positif sur le succès reproducteur. De plus, l'origine de la femelle avait un effet sur le succès des mâles en compétition dans certaines populations. Nos résultats suggèrent qu'une divergence reproductive chez Silene latifolia pourrait apparaître suite à la compétition pollinique. Nous avons ensuite testé des mécanismes potentiels de défense constitutive et induite contre l'herbivore spécialiste Hadena bicruris, un papillon nocturne qui pourrait aussi jouer un rôle dans la différenciation des populations. L'épaisseur des fruits étant plus faible dans les régions où la plante est invasive (Amérique du Nord) et où l'insecte est absent, ce trait pourrait jouer un rôle défensif. Une pression de sélection plus faible causée par l'absence de l'herbivore aurait abouti à une perte de cette défense dans ces régions. Nous avons montré que l'épaisseur du fruit est variable selon les populations. L'infestation artificielle de fruit par l'insecte induit l'abscission sélective des fruits. Les fruits produits après une infestation n'étaient pas plus épais que les fruits issus de plantes non infestées. De plus, les fruits épais n'étaient pas moins nutritifs et ne causaient pas de perte de temps pour la prédation pour les larves, ce qui suggère que l'épaisseur des fruits ne joue pas un rôle défensif. Nos résultats montrent que plusieurs pressions de sélection interviennent et interagissent dans l'évolution de populations distantes, provoquant la divergence des populations Européennes de l'espèce Silene latifolia.
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MOTIVATION: Analysis of millions of pyro-sequences is currently playing a crucial role in the advance of environmental microbiology. Taxonomy-independent, i.e. unsupervised, clustering of these sequences is essential for the definition of Operational Taxonomic Units. For this application, reproducibility and robustness should be the most sought after qualities, but have thus far largely been overlooked. RESULTS: More than 1 million hyper-variable internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) sequences of fungal origin have been analyzed. The ITS1 sequences were first properly extracted from 454 reads using generalized profiles. Then, otupipe, cd-hit-454, ESPRIT-Tree and DBC454, a new algorithm presented here, were used to analyze the sequences. A numerical assay was developed to measure the reproducibility and robustness of these algorithms. DBC454 was the most robust, closely followed by ESPRIT-Tree. DBC454 features density-based hierarchical clustering, which complements the other methods by providing insights into the structure of the data. AVAILABILITY: An executable is freely available for non-commercial users at ftp://ftp.vital-it.ch/tools/dbc454. It is designed to run under MPI on a cluster of 64-bit Linux machines running Red Hat 4.x, or on a multi-core OSX system. CONTACT: dbc454@vital-it.ch or nicolas.guex@isb-sib.ch.
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This article employs a unique data set - covering 25 popular votes on foreign, European and immigration/asylum policy held between 1992 and 2006 in Switzerland - in order to examine the conditional impact of context upon utilitarian, cultural, political and cognitive determinants of individual attitudes toward international openness. Our results reveal clear patterns of cross-level interactions between individual determinants and the project-related context of the vote. Thus, although party cues and political competence have a strong impact on individuals' support for international openness, this impact is substantially mediated by the type of coalition that is operating within the party elite. Similarly, subjective utilitarian and cultural considerations influence the voters' decision in interaction with the content of the proposal submitted to the voters as well as with the framing of the voting campaign.
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During my PhD, my aim was to provide new tools to increase our capacity to analyse gene expression patterns, and to study on a large-scale basis the evolution of gene expression in animals. Gene expression patterns (when and where a gene is expressed) are a key feature in understanding gene function, notably in development. It appears clear now that the evolution of developmental processes and of phenotypes is shaped both by evolution at the coding sequence level, and at the gene expression level.Studying gene expression evolution in animals, with complex expression patterns over tissues and developmental time, is still challenging. No tools are available to routinely compare expression patterns between different species, with precision, and on a large-scale basis. Studies on gene expression evolution are therefore performed only on small genes datasets, or using imprecise descriptions of expression patterns.The aim of my PhD was thus to develop and use novel bioinformatics resources, to study the evolution of gene expression. To this end, I developed the database Bgee (Base for Gene Expression Evolution). The approach of Bgee is to transform heterogeneous expression data (ESTs, microarrays, and in-situ hybridizations) into present/absent calls, and to annotate them to standard representations of anatomy and development of different species (anatomical ontologies). An extensive mapping between anatomies of species is then developed based on hypothesis of homology. These precise annotations to anatomies, and this extensive mapping between species, are the major assets of Bgee, and have required the involvement of many co-workers over the years. My main personal contribution is the development and the management of both the Bgee database and the web-application.Bgee is now on its ninth release, and includes an important gene expression dataset for 5 species (human, mouse, drosophila, zebrafish, Xenopus), with the most data from mouse, human and zebrafish. Using these three species, I have conducted an analysis of gene expression evolution after duplication in vertebrates.Gene duplication is thought to be a major source of novelty in evolution, and to participate to speciation. It has been suggested that the evolution of gene expression patterns might participate in the retention of duplicate genes. I performed a large-scale comparison of expression patterns of hundreds of duplicated genes to their singleton ortholog in an outgroup, including both small and large-scale duplicates, in three vertebrate species (human, mouse and zebrafish), and using highly accurate descriptions of expression patterns. My results showed unexpectedly high rates of de novo acquisition of expression domains after duplication (neofunctionalization), at least as high or higher than rates of partitioning of expression domains (subfunctionalization). I found differences in the evolution of expression of small- and large-scale duplicates, with small-scale duplicates more prone to neofunctionalization. Duplicates with neofunctionalization seemed to evolve under more relaxed selective pressure on the coding sequence. Finally, even with abundant and precise expression data, the majority fate I recovered was neither neo- nor subfunctionalization of expression domains, suggesting a major role for other mechanisms in duplicate gene retention.
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ABSTRACT In S. cerevisiae, the protein phosphatase Cdc14pwt is essential far mitotic exit through its contribution to reducing mitotic CDK activity. But Cdc14pwt also acts as a mare general temporal coordinator of mid and late mitotic events by controlling the partitioning of DNA, microtubule stability and cytokinesis. Cdc14pwt orthologs are well conserved from yeasts to humans, and sequence comparison revealed the presence of three domains, A, B and C, of which A and B form the catalytic domain. Cdc14pwt orthologs are regulated (in part) through cell cycle dependent changes in their localization. Some of them are thought to be kept inactive by sequestration in the nucleolus during interphase. This is the case for flp1pwt, the single identified Cdc14pwt ortholog in the fission yeast S. pombe. In early mitosis, flp1pwt leaves the nucleolus and localizes to the kinetochores, the contractile ring and the mitotic spindle, suggesting that it has multiple substrates and regulates many mitotic processes. flp1D cells show a high chromosome loss rate and septation defects, suggesting a role for flp1wt in the fidelity of chromosome transmission and cytokinesis. The aim of this study is to characterize the mechanisms underlying flp1pwt functions and the control of its activity. A structure-function analysis has revealed that the presence of both A and B domains is required for biological function and for proper flp1pwt mitotic localization. In contrast, the C domain of flp1pwt is responsible for its proper nucleolar localization in G2/interphase. My data suggest that dephosphorylation of substrates by flp1pwt is not necessary for any changes in localization of flp1pwt except that at the medial ring. In that particular case, the catalytic activity of flp1pwt is required for efficient localization, therefore revealing an additional level of regulation. All the functions of flp1pwt assayed to date require its catalytic activity, emphasizing the importance of further identification of its substrates. As described for other orthologs, the capability of selfinteraction and phosphorylation status might help to control flp1pwt activity. My data suggest that flp1pwt forms oligomers in vivo and that phosphorylation is not essential far localization changes of the protein. In addition, the hypophosphorylated form of flp1pwt might be specifically involved in the promotion of cytokinesis. The results of this study suggest that multiple modes of regulation including localization, selfassociation and phosphorylation allow a fine-tuning regulation of flp1pwt phosphatase activity, and more generally that of Cdc14pwt family of phosphatases. RESUME Chez la levure S. cerevisiae, la protéine phosphatase Cdc14pwt est essentielle pour la sortie de mitose du fait de sa contribution dans la réduction d'activité des CDK mitotiques. Comme elle contrôle également le partage de l'ADN, la stabilité des microtubules et la cytokinèse, Cdc14pwt est en fait considérée comme un coordinateur temporel général des évènements de milieu et de fin de mitose. Les orthologues de Cdc14pwt sont bien conservés, des levures jusqu'à l'espèce humaine. Des comparaisons de séquence ont révélé la présence de trois domaines A, B et C, les deux premiers constituant le domaine catalytique. Ils sont régulés (en partie) via des changements dans leur localisation, eux-mêmes dépendants du cycle cellulaire. Plusieurs de ces orthologues sont supposés inactivés par séquestration dans le nucléole en interphase, ce qui est le cas de flp1pwt le seul orthologue de Cdc14pwt identifié chez la levure fissipare S, pombe. En début de mitose, flp1pwt quitte le nucléole et localise au niveau des kinetochores, de l'anneau contractile d'actine et du fuseau mitotique, ce qui laisse supposer de multiples substrats et fonctions. Comme les cellules délétées pour le gène flp1wt présentent un taux élevé de perte de chromosome et des défauts de septation, flp1pwt semble jouer un rôle dans la fidélité de la transmission du matériel génétique et la cytokinèse. Le but de cette étude est de caractériser les mécanismes impliqués dans les fonctions assurées par flp1pwt d'une part, et dans le contrôle de son activité d'autre part. Une analyse structure-fonction a révélé que la présence simultanée des deux domaines A et B est requise pour la fonction biologique de flp1pwt et sa localisation correcte pendant la mitose. Par contre, le domaine C de flp1pwt confère une localisation nucléolaire adéquate en G2/interphase. Mes données suggèrent que la déphosphorylation de substrats par flp1pwt est dispensable pour sa localisation correcte excepté celle à l'anneau médian, qui requiert dans ce cas, l'activité catalytique de flp1pwt, révélant ainsi un niveau de régulation supplémentaire. Toutes les fonctions de flp1 pwt testées jusqu'à présent nécessitent également son activité catalytique, ce qui accentue l'importance de l'identification future de ses substrats. Comme cela a déjà été décrit pour d'autres orthologues, la capacité d'auto-intéraction et le niveau de phosphorylation pourraient contrôler l'activité de flp1pwt. En effet, mes données suggèrent que flp1pwt forme des oligomères in vivo et que la phosphorylation n'est pas essentielle pour les changements de localisation observés pour la protéine. De plus, la forme hypophosphorylée de flp1pwt pourrait être spécifiquement impliquée dans la promotion de la cytokinèse. De multiples modes de régulation incluant la localisation, l'auto-association et la phosphorylation semblent permettre un contrôle fin et subtil de l'activité de la phosphatase flp1pwt, et plus généralement celle des protéines de la famille de Cdc14pwt.
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Devolatilization reactions and subsequent transfer of fluid from subducted oceanic crust into the overlying mantle wedge are important processes, which are responsible for the specific geochemical characteristics of subduction-related metamorphic rocks, as well as those of arc magmatism. To better understand the geochemical fingerprint induced by fluid mobilization during dehydration and rehydration processes related to subduction zone metamorphism, the trace element and rare earth element (REE) distribution patterns in HP-LT metamorphic assemblages in eclogite-, blueschist- and greenschist-facies rocks of the Ile de Groix were obtained by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) analysis. This study focuses on 10 massive basic rocks representing former hydrothermally altered mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB), four banded basic rocks of volcano-sedimentary origin and one micaschist. The main hosts for incompatible trace elements are epidote (REE, Th, U, Pb, Sr), garnet [Y, heavy REE (HREE)], phengite (Cs, Rb, Ba, B), titanite [Ti, Nb, Ta, REE; HREE > LREE (light REE)], rutile (Ti, Nb, Ta) and apatite (REE, Sr). The trace element contents of omphacite, amphibole, albite and chlorite are low. The incompatible trace element contents of minerals are controlled by the stable metamorphic mineral assemblage and directly related to the appearance, disappearance and reappearance of minerals, especially epidote, garnet, titanite, rutile and phengite, during subduction zone metamorphism. Epidote is a key mineral in the trace element exchange process because of its large stability field, ranging from lower greenschist- to blueschist- and eclogite-facies conditions. Different generations of epidote are generally observed and related to the coexisting phases at different stages of the metamorphic cycle (e.g. lawsonite, garnet, titanite). Epidote thus controls most of the REE budget during the changing P-T conditions along the prograde and retrograde path. Phengite also plays an important role in determining the large ion lithophile element (LILE) budget, as it is stable to high P-T conditions. The breakdown of phengite causes the release of LILE during retrogression. A comparison of trace element abundances in whole-rocks and minerals shows that the HP-LT metamorphic rocks largely retain the geochemical characteristics of their basic, volcano-sedimentary and pelitic protoliths, including a hydrothermal alteration overprint before the subduction process. A large part of the incompatible trace elements remained trapped in the rocks and was recycled within the various metamorphic assemblages stable under changing metamorphic conditions during the subduction process, indicating that devolatilization reactions in massive basic rocks do not necessarily imply significant simultaneous trace element and REE release.
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The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.
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Different factors influence ADL performance among nursing home (NH) residents in long term care. The aim was to investigate which factors were associated with a significant change of ADL performance in NH residents, and whether or not these factors were gender-specific. The design was a survival analysis. The 10,199 participants resided in ninety Swiss NHs. Their ADL performance had been assessed by the Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) in the period from 1997 to 2007. Relevant change in ADL performance was defined as 2 levels of change on the ADL scale between two successive assessments. The occurrence of either an improvement or a degradation of the ADL status) was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The analysis included a total of 10,199 NH residents. Each resident received between 2 and 23 assessments. Poor balance, incontinence, impaired cognition, a low BMI, impaired vision, no daily contact with proxies, impaired hearing and the presence of depression were, by hierarchical order, significant risk factors for NH residents to experience a degradation of ADL performance. Residents, who were incontinent, cognitively impaired or had a high BMI were significantly less likely to improve their ADL abilities. Male residents with cancer were prone to see their ADL improve. The year of NH entry was significantly associated with either degradation or improvement of ADL performance. Measures aiming at improving balance and continence, promoting physical activity, providing appropriate nourishment and cognitive enhancement are important for ADL performance in NH residents.
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The IncP alpha promiscuous plasmid (R18, R68, RK2, RP1 and RP4) comprises 60,099 bp of nucleotide sequence, encoding at least 74 genes. About 40 kb of the genome, designated the IncP core and including all essential replication and transfer functions, can be aligned with equivalent sequences in the IncP beta plasmid R751. The compiled IncP alpha sequence revealed several previously unidentified reading frames that are potential genes. IncP alpha plasmids carry genetic information very efficiently: the coding sequences of the genes are closely packed but rarely overlap, and occupy almost 86% of the genome's nucleotide sequence. All of the 74 genes should be expressed, although there is as yet experimental evidence for expression of only 60 of them. Six examples of tandem-in-frame initiation sites specifying two gene products each are known. Two overlapping gene arrangements occupy different reading frames of the same region. Intergenic regions include most of the 25 promoters; transcripts are usually polycistronic. Translation of most of the open reading frames seems to be initiated independently, each from its own ribosomal binding and initiation site, although, a few cases of coupled translation have been reported. The most frequently used initiation codon is AUG but translation for a few open reading frames begins at GUG or UUG. The most common stop-codon is UGA followed by UAA and then UAG. Regulatory circuits are complex and largely dependent on two components of the central control operon. KorA and KorB are transcriptional repressors controlling at least seven operons. KorA and KorB act synergistically in several cases by recognizing and binding to conserved nucleotide sequences. Twelve KorB binding sites were found around the IncP alpha sequence and these are conserved in R751 (IncP beta) with respect to both sequence and location. Replication of IncP alpha plasmids requires oriV and the plasmid-encoded initiator protein TrfA in combination with the host-encoded replication machinery. Conjugative plasmid transfer depends on two separate regions occupying about half of the genome. The primary segregational stability system designated Par/Mrs consists of a putative site-specific recombinase, a possible partitioning apparatus and a post-segregational lethality mechanism, all encoded in two divergent operons. Proteins related to the products of F sop and P1 par partitioning genes are separately encoded in the central control operon.
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OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.
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This paper examines a dataset that derives from an observational tracking, in order to analyze where and how middle-class working families spend time at home. We use an ethnographic approach to study the everyday lives of Italian dual-income middle-class families, with the aim to analyze quantitatively the use of home spaces and the types of activities of family members on weekday afternoons and evenings. The different analyses (multiple correspondence analysis, agglomerative hierarchical cluster, discriminant analysis) show how particular spaces and activities in these spaces are dominated by certain family members. We suggest a combination of qualitative and quantitative methodologies as useful tools to explore in detail the everyday lives of families, and to understand how family members use the domestic spaces. In particular, we consider relevant the use of quantitative analyses to examine ethnographic data, especially in connection with the methodological reflexivity among researchers
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Cigar and pipe smoking are considered risk factors for head and neck cancers, but the magnitude of effect estimates for these products has been imprecisely estimated. By using pooled data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium (comprising 13,935 cases and 18,691 controls in 19 studies from 1981 to 2007), we applied hierarchical logistic regression to more precisely estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for cigarette, cigar, and pipe smoking separately, compared with reference groups of those who had never smoked each single product. Odds ratios for cigar and pipe smoking were stratified by ever cigarette smoking. We also considered effect estimates of smoking a single product exclusively versus never having smoked any product (reference group). Among never cigarette smokers, the odds ratio for ever cigar smoking was 2.54 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.93, 3.34), and the odds ratio for ever pipe smoking was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.55, 2.81). These odds ratios increased with increasing frequency and duration of smoking (Ptrend ≤ 0.0001). Odds ratios for cigar and pipe smoking were not elevated among ever cigarette smokers. Head and neck cancer risk was elevated for those who reported exclusive cigar smoking (odds ratio = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.58, 4.73) or exclusive pipe smoking (odds ratio = 3.71, 95% CI: 2.59, 5.33). These results suggest that cigar and pipe smoking are independently associated with increased risk of head and neck cancers.
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1. Niche theory predicts that the stable coexistence of species within a guild should be associated, if resources are limited, with a mechanism of resource partitioning. Using extensive data on diets, the present study attempts: (i) to test the hypothesis that, in sympatry, the interspecific overlap between the trophic niches of the sibling bat species Myotis myotis and M. blythii-which coexist intimately in their roosts-is effectively lower than the two intraspecific overlaps; (ii) to assess the role played by interspecific competition in resource partitioning through the study of trophic niche displacement between several sympatric and allopatric populations. 2. Diets were determined by the analysis of faecal samples collected in the field from individual bats captured in various geographical areas. Trophic niche overlaps were calculated monthly for all possible intraspecific and interspecific pairs of individuals from sympatric populations. Niche breadth was estimated from: (i) every faecal sample; (ii) all the faecal samples collected per month in a given population (geographical area). 3. In every population, the bulk of the diets of M. myotis and M. blythii consisted of, respectively, terrestrial (e.g. carabid beetles) and grass-dwelling (mostly bush crickets) prey. All intraspecific trophic niche overlaps were significantly greater than the interspecific one, except in Switzerland in May when both species exploited mass concentrations of cockchafers, a non-limiting food source. This clearcut partitioning of resources may allow the stable, intimate coexistence observed under sympatric conditions. 4. Relative proportions of ground-and grass-dwelling prey, as well as niche breadths (either individual or population), did not differ significantly between sympatry and allopatry, showing that, under allopatric conditions, niche expansion does not take place. This suggests that active interspecific competition is not the underlying mechanism responsible for the niche partitioning which is currently observed between M. myotis and M. blythii.
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BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the biggest cause of deaths in young children in developing countries, but early diagnosis and intervention can effectively reduce mortality. We aimed to assess the diagnostic value of clinical signs and symptoms to identify radiological pneumonia in children younger than 5 years and to review the accuracy of WHO criteria for diagnosis of clinical pneumonia. METHODS: We searched Medline (PubMed), Embase (Ovid), the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and reference lists of relevant studies, without date restrictions, to identify articles assessing clinical predictors of radiological pneumonia in children. Selection was based on: design (diagnostic accuracy studies), target disease (pneumonia), participants (children aged <5 years), setting (ambulatory or hospital care), index test (clinical features), and reference standard (chest radiography). Quality assessment was based on the 2011 Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) criteria. For each index test, we calculated sensitivity and specificity and, when the tests were assessed in four or more studies, calculated pooled estimates with use of bivariate model and hierarchical summary receiver operation characteristics plots for meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We included 18 articles in our analysis. WHO-approved signs age-related fast breathing (six studies; pooled sensitivity 0·62, 95% CI 0·26-0·89; specificity 0·59, 0·29-0·84) and lower chest wall indrawing (four studies; 0·48, 0·16-0·82; 0·72, 0·47-0·89) showed poor diagnostic performance in the meta-analysis. Features with the highest pooled positive likelihood ratios were respiratory rate higher than 50 breaths per min (1·90, 1·45-2·48), grunting (1·78, 1·10-2·88), chest indrawing (1·76, 0·86-3·58), and nasal flaring (1·75, 1·20-2·56). Features with the lowest pooled negative likelihood ratio were cough (0·30, 0·09-0·96), history of fever (0·53, 0·41-0·69), and respiratory rate higher than 40 breaths per min (0·43, 0·23-0·83). INTERPRETATION: Not one clinical feature was sufficient to diagnose pneumonia definitively. Combination of clinical features in a decision tree might improve diagnostic performance, but the addition of new point-of-care tests for diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia would help to attain an acceptable level of accuracy. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation.
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One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.