Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Incidence and types of illness when traveling to the tropics: a prospective controlled study of children and their parents.

Increasingly, families travel to tropical destinations exposing them to infectious agents and tropical diseases not encountered at home. We studied 157 children (0-16 years) and their adult relatives traveling to the tropics, who attended a pretravel clinic and were generally adherent to prescribed advice. Incidence rates of common illness in children and adults were respectively 16.9 (14.3-19.7) and 15.1 (12.7-17.8) episodes/100 person-weeks. Diarrhea, abdominal pain, and fever were the most frequent complaints. There was no significant difference in the incidence of morbid episodes between children and adults, except for fever (more frequent in children). Most episodes occurred in the first 10 days of travel. The similar incidence of morbidity in children and adults and the episodes' mildness challenge the view that it is unwise to travel with small children.

Alcohol consumption in late adolescence and early adulthood - where is the problem?

Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is more common in late adolescence and early adulthood (approximately between the ages of 16 and 30) than in any other period in life. This is also the age when young people in Switzerland and many other European countries are legally allowed to buy and drink alcohol, but they usually do not yet have adult responsibilities. This paper reviews evidence from the international literature and provides examples of studies conducted in Switzerland demonstrating that (a) RSOD is by far most prevalent on Saturday evenings followed by Friday evenings, usually because young people go out and do not have any work or study responsibilities the next day; (b) RSOD results from drinking in private before going out ("predrinking") and accelerating the pace of drinking (i.e. increasing the number of drinks consumed per hour); (c) RSOD is often not accidental but purposeful,. to seek excitement, to have fun and to feel the effects of alcohol; (d) RSOD occurs predominantly outside the home, mostly in bars, pubs, discos or at special events and festivals; (e) RSOD often results in intended and unintended injuries and other acute consequences, which are leading risk factors for mortality and morbidity in this age group. Effective prevention strategies should include attempts to reduce opportunities to engage in heavy drinking as well as strategies to reduce its harmful consequences.

Underfunding of stroke research: a Europe-wide problem.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous studies in the United States and the United Kingdom have shown that stroke research is underfunded compared with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cancer research despite the high clinical and financial burden of stroke. We aimed to determine whether underfunding of stroke research is a Europe-wide problem. METHODS: Data for the financial year 2000 to 2001 were collected from 9 different European countries. Information on stroke, CHD, and cancer research funding awarded by disease-specific charities and nondisease-specific charity or government- funded organizations was obtained from annual reports, web sites, and by direct communication with organizations. RESULTS: There was marked and consistent underfunding of stroke research in all the countries studied. Stroke funding as a percentage of the total funding for stroke, CHD, and cancer was uniformly low, ranging from 2% to 11%. Funding for stroke was less than funding for cancer, usually by a factor of > or =10. In every country except Turkey, funding for stroke research was less than that for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that stroke research is grossly underfunded, compared with CHD and cancer, throughout Europe. Similar data have been obtained from the United States suggesting that relative underfunding of stroke research is likely to be a worldwide phenomenon.

A tailored approach for the treatment of indirect inguinal hernia in adults--an old problem revisited.

A patent processus vaginalis peritonei (PPV) presents typically as an indirect hernia with an intact inguinal canal floor during childhood. Little is known however about PPV in adults and its best treatment. A cohort study included all consecutive patients admitted for ambulatory open hernia repair. In patients with a PPV, demographics, hernia characteristics, and outcome were prospectively assessed. Annulorrhaphy was the treatment of choice in patients with an internal inguinal ring diameter of < 30 mm. Between 1998 and 2006, 92 PPVs (two bilateral) were diagnosed in 676 open hernia repairs (incidence of 14%). Eighty nine of the 90 patients were males, the median age was 34 years (range: 17-85). A PPV was right-sided in 67% and partially obliterated in 66%. Forty-one patients had an annulorrhaphy and 51 patients had a tension-free mesh repair. The median operation time was significantly shorter in the annulorrhaphy group (38 vs. 48 min, P <.0001). In a median follow-up period of 56 months (27-128), both groups did not differ concerning recurrence (1/41 vs. 2/51), chronic pain (3/41 vs. 4/51), and hypoesthesia (5/41 vs. 9/51). There was however a clear trend to less neuropathic symptoms in favor of annulorrhaphy (0/41 vs. 5/51, P < 0.066). PPV occurs in 14% of adults undergoing hernia repair. In selected patients, annulorrhaphy takes less time and is associated with equally low recurrence but less potential for neuropathic symptoms.

Seizure semiology: an overview of the 'inverse problem'.

In clinical practice, a classification of seizures based on clinical signs and symptoms leads to an improved understanding of epilepsy-related issues and therefore strongly contributes to a better patient care. The inverse problem involves inferring the anatomical brain localization of a seizure from the scalp surface EEG, a concept we apply here to correlate seizure origin with seizure semiology. The spheres of sensorium, motor features, consciousness changes and autonomic alterations during ictal and postictal manifestations are reviewed, including several subdivisions used to better categorize particular features. Particular attention is given to behavioral features, as well as to features occurring in idiopathic generalized epileptic syndromes and psychogenic nonepileptic spells.

Komik, Ernst und Mise en page. Zum Problem der Farblinien in Heinrich Wittenwilers "Der Ring"

Der Aufsatz nähert sich dem Interpretationsproblem des ,Ring', eines seit Forschungsbeginn ausserordentlich konträr diskutierten Textes, aus wissenschaftsanalytischer Perspektive. Er führt die Zersplitterung und die Extremisierung der Deutungsansätze, die die breite Forschung zu Wittenwilers Werk kennzeichnet, auf einen vergleichsweise simplen Befund zurück: die ungeklärte Frage nach dem Verhältnis von Komik und Didaktik und der Ernsthaftigkeit des lehrhaften Angebots im ,Ring'. Die so auf grundlegendster Ebene offen gebliebene Erfassung des Textes führt in einen interpretatorischen Leerraum, in dem die widersprüchlichsten, oft wissenschaftsideologisch begründeten Positionen Platz finden. Ihre Analyse zeigt, dass sie sich in wiederkehrende Gruppierungen ordnen. Als Schlüsselglied sowohl der Befunddaten als auch der konträren Vernetzungen von Befund und Deutung wird die wechselnd rote und grüne Initialenlinie der Münchner Handschrift identifiziert. Als im Prolog eingeführte Markierung von Ernst auf der einen und Komik auf der anderen Seite ist sie nicht nur visueller Ausdruck des Deutungsproblems des ,Ring', sondern sie hat es wegen der scheinbaren Unstimmigkeit ihrer Zuweisungen auch wesentlich bedingt. Der Aufsatz zeigt ihren bisher übersehenen Aufschluss für das Verständnis des Werks. Nimmt man die Linie als graphisches Verfahren ernst, stellt sie sich als strukturelle Markierung zum Auffinden von Text im diskontinuierlichen Zugriff dar - nicht aber, wie man sie bisher ausnahmslos verstand, als semantische Kommentierung eines laufenden, kontinuierlich zu lesenden Textes. Die strukturierende Funktion des Farbwechsels ist auf zwei Ebenen nachzuweisen: Auf Makroebene trennen seine Zuweisungen vorwiegend narrative und vorwiegend wissensvermittelnde Grosspartien des ,Ring' durch eine jeweilige Grundfarbe. Auf Mikroebene wird diese Grundfarbe durch die jeweils andere Farbe durchbrochen, um formale Einschnitte wie etwa Sprecherwechsel, Ortswechsel, Handlungsneueinsätze, Beginn und Ende eines eingeschalteten Binnentextes oder einer Sentenz anzuzeigen. Dem Benutzer der autornahen Handschrift sollte so in einem ersten Schritt (makrostrukturell) ermöglicht werden, gezielt auf gewünschte Stellen des Textes zuzugreifen und ihn in einem zweiten Schritt (mikrostrukturell) schneller zu erfassen. Nicht in seiner Umsetzung, sehr wohl aber in seiner Funktion steht dieses ungewöhnliche Layout zeitgenössischen Techniken der Buchgliederung durchaus nahe. Auch im Profil der Zusammenstellung seiner Binnentexte rückt der ,Ring' damit in die Nähe der im Spätmittelalter beliebten Sammelhandschriften mit Ziel einer Wissenssumme, die hier narrativ verbundenen wird. Es scheint, als möchte der ,Ring' in einem ungewöhnlichen Experiment beides sein: Kompilation und Werkganzes, Wissenssammlung und Erzählwerk - Texte und Text. Als Ergebnis einer Neuuntersuchung des Münchner codex unicus des ,Ring' weist der Beitrag schliesslich darauf hin, dass auch zahlreiche Markierungszeichen am Spaltenrand formale und strukturelle Texteinschnitte anzeigen und somit die gleiche Funktion haben wie der Farbwechsel auf Mikroebene. Ein kausaler, produktionstechnischer Zusammenhang zwischen diesen Zeichen und der Verteilung des Farbwechsels ist nicht auszuschliessen, zumal beide Verfahren etwa im letzten Fünftel des Textes zunehmend zusammenfallen. Möglicherweise war nur die makrostrukturelle Funktion des Farbwechsel ursprünglich indendiert und mit der Erläuterung im Prolog bezeichnet, während seine mikrostrukturelle Funktion erst Resultat des Abschreibprozesses ist.