Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Acute and usual drinking among emergency trauma patients: a study on alcohol consumption and injury patterns.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between usual and acute alcohol consumption among injured patients and, when combined, how they covary with other injury attributes. METHODS: Data from a randomised sample of 486 injured patients interviewed in an emergency department (Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland) were analysed using the chi(2) test for independence and cluster analysis. RESULTS: Acute alcohol consumption (24.7%) was associated with usual drinking and particularly with high volumes of consumption. Six injury clusters were identified. Over-representations of acute consumption were found in a cluster typical of injuries sustained through interpersonal violence and in another formed by miscellaneous circumstances. A third cluster, typical of sports injuries, was linked to a group of frequent heavy episodic drinkers (without acute consumption). CONCLUSIONS: Among injured patients, acute alcohol consumption is common and associated with usual drinking. Acute and/or usual consumption form part of some, but not all, injury clusters.

A novel tool to analyze MRI recurrence patterns in glioblastoma.

At least 10% of glioblastoma relapses occur at distant and even contralateral locations. This disseminated growth limits surgical intervention and contributes to neurological morbidity. Preclinical data pointed toward a role for temozolomide (TMZ) in reducing radiotherapy-induced glioma cell invasiveness. Our objective was to develop and validate a new analysis tool of MRI data to examine the clinical recurrence pattern of glioblastomas. MRIcro software was used to map the location and extent of initial preoperative and recurrent tumors on MRI of 63 patients in the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) 26981/22981/National Cancer Institute of Canada (NCIC) CE.3 study into the same stereotaxic space. This allowed us to examine changes of site and distance between the initial and the recurrent tumor on the group level. Thirty of the 63 patients were treated using radiotherapy, while the other patients completed a radiotherapy-plus-TMZ treatment. Baseline characteristics (median age, KPS) and outcome data (progression-free survival, overall survival) of the patients included in this analysis resemble those of the general study cohort. The patient groups did not differ in the promoter methylation status of methyl guanine methyltransferase (MGMT). Overall frequency of distant recurrences was 20%. Analysis of recurrence patterns revealed no difference between the groups in the size of the recurrent tumor or in the differential effect on the distance of the recurrences from the preoperative tumor location. The data show the feasibility of groupwise recurrence pattern analysis. An effect of TMZ treatment on the recurrence pattern in the EORTC 26981/22981/NCIC CE.3 study could not be demonstrated.

Confirmation of functional zones within the human subthalamic nucleus: patterns of connectivity and sub-parcellation using diffusion weighted imaging.

The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is a small, glutamatergic nucleus situated in the diencephalon. A critical component of normal motor function, it has become a key target for deep brain stimulation in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Animal studies have demonstrated the existence of three functional sub-zones but these have never been shown conclusively in humans. In this work, a data driven method with diffusion weighted imaging demonstrated that three distinct clusters exist within the human STN based on brain connectivity profiles. The STN was successfully sub-parcellated into these regions, demonstrating good correspondence with that described in the animal literature. The local connectivity of each sub-region supported the hypothesis of bilateral limbic, associative and motor regions occupying the anterior, mid and posterior portions of the nucleus respectively. This study is the first to achieve in-vivo, non-invasive anatomical parcellation of the human STN into three anatomical zones within normal diagnostic scan times, which has important future implications for deep brain stimulation surgery.

Adolescent drinking patterns across countries: associations with alcohol policies.

Early consumption of full servings of alcohol and early experience of drunkenness have been linked with alcohol-related harmful effects in adolescence, as well as adult health and social problems. On the basis of secondary analysis of county-level prevalence data, the present study explored the current pattern of drinking and drunkenness among 15- and 16-year-old adolescents in 40 European and North American countries. Data from the 2006 Health Behavior in School Children survey and the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs were used. The potential role of alcohol control and policy measures in explaining variance in drinking patterns across countries was also examined. Policy measures and data on adult consumption patterns were taken from the WHO Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, Eurostat and the indicator of alcohol control policy strength developed by Brand DA, Saisana M, Rynn LA et al. [(2007) Comparative analysis of alcohol control policies in 30 countries. PLoS Med 4:e151.]. We found that a non-significant trend existed whereby higher prices and stronger alcohol controls were associated with a lower proportion of weekly drinking but a higher proportion of drunkenness. It is important that future research explores the causal relationships between alcohol policy measures and alcohol consumption patterns to determine whether strict policies do in fact have any beneficial effect on drinking patterns, or rather, lead to rebellion and an increased prevalence of binge drinking.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Sequence-Based Hepatitis B Virus Antiviral Resistance Testing in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: A growing number of patients with chronic hepatitis B is being treated for extended periods with nucleoside and/or nucleotide analogs. In this context, antiviral resistance represents an increasingly common and complex issue. METHODS: Mutations in the hepatitis B virus (HBV) reverse transcriptase (rt) gene and viral genotypes were determined by direct sequencing of PCR products and alignment with reference sequences deposited in GenBank. RESULTS: Plasma samples from 60 patients with chronic hepatitis B were analyzed since March 2009. The predominant mutation pattern identified in patients with virological breakthrough was rtM204V/I ± different compensatory mutations, conferring resistance to L-nucleosides (lamivudine, telbivudine, emtricitabine) and predisposing to entecavir resistance (n = 18). Complex mutation patterns with a potential for multidrug resistance were identified in 2 patients. Selection of a fully entecavir resistant strain was observed in a patient exposed to lamivudine alone. Novel mutations were identified in 1 patient. Wild-type HBV was identified in 9 patients with suspected virological breakthrough, raising concerns about treatment adherence. No preexisting resistance mutations were identified in treatment-naïve patients (n = 13). Viral genome amplification and sequencing failed in 16 patients, of which only 2 had a documented HBV DNA > 1000 IU/ml. HBV genotypes were D in 28, A in 6, B in 4, C in 3 and E in 3 patients. Results will be updated in August 2010 and therapeutic implications discussed. CONCLUSIONS: With expanding treatment options and a growing number of patients exposed to nucleoside and/or nucleotide analogs, sequence-based HBV antiviral resistance testing is expected to become a cornerstone in the management of chronic hepatitis B.

A comprehensive characterization of genome-wide copy number aberrations in colorectal cancer reveals novel oncogenes and patterns of alterations.

To develop a comprehensive overview of copy number aberrations (CNAs) in stage-II/III colorectal cancer (CRC), we characterized 302 tumors from the PETACC-3 clinical trial. Microsatellite-stable (MSS) samples (n = 269) had 66 minimal common CNA regions, with frequent gains on 20 q (72.5%), 7 (41.8%), 8 q (33.1%) and 13 q (51.0%) and losses on 18 (58.6%), 4 q (26%) and 21 q (21.6%). MSS tumors have significantly more CNAs than microsatellite-instable (MSI) tumors: within the MSI tumors a novel deletion of the tumor suppressor WWOX at 16 q23.1 was identified (p<0.01). Focal aberrations identified by the GISTIC method confirmed amplifications of oncogenes including EGFR, ERBB2, CCND1, MET, and MYC, and deletions of tumor suppressors including TP53, APC, and SMAD4, and gene expression was highly concordant with copy number aberration for these genes. Novel amplicons included putative oncogenes such as WNK1 and HNF4A, which also showed high concordance between copy number and expression. Survival analysis associated a specific patient segment featured by chromosome 20 q gains to an improved overall survival, which might be due to higher expression of genes such as EEF1B2 and PTK6. The CNA clustering also grouped tumors characterized by a poor prognosis BRAF-mutant-like signature derived from mRNA data from this cohort. We further revealed non-random correlation between CNAs among unlinked loci, including positive correlation between 20 q gain and 8 q gain, and 20 q gain and chromosome 18 loss, consistent with co-selection of these CNAs. These results reinforce the non-random nature of somatic CNAs in stage-II/III CRC and highlight loci and genes that may play an important role in driving the development and outcome of this disease.

Trace element differentiation in ferruginous accumulation soil patterns under tropical rainforest of southern Cameroon, the role of climatic change

Regions under tropical rainforest cover, such as central Africa and Brazil are characterised by degradation and dismantling of old ferricrete structures. In southern Cameroon, these processes are relayed by present-day ferruginous accumulation soil facies, situated on the middle and the lower part of hill slopes. These facies become progressively harder towards the surface, containing from bottom to top, mainly kaolinite, kaolinite-goethite and Al-rich goethite-hematite, and are discontinuous to the relictic hematite-dominated ferricrete that exist in the upper part of the hill slope. These features were investigated in terms of geochemical differentiation of trace elements. It appears that, in contrast to the old ferricrete facies, the current ferruginous accumulations are enriched in transitional trace elements (V, Cr, Co, Y, Sc) and Ph, while alkali-earth elements are less differentiated. This recent chemical accumulation is controlled both by intense weathering of the granodiorite bedrock and by mobilisation of elements previously accumulated in the old ferricrete. The observed processes are clearly linked to the present-day humid climate with rising groundwater tables. They slowly replace the old ferricretes formed during Cretaceous time under more seasonal climatic conditions, representing an instructive case of continuos global change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The cognitive errors and coping patterns of child molesters as assessed by external observers: a pilot study

Cognitive errors (CE) and coping strategies (CS) are the focus of most cognitive-behavioral treatments for incarcerated child molesters. Several studies have reported differences in CEs and CSs between child molesters and controls. However, the vast majority of these studies assessed cognitive errors and coping using questionnaires, which are known to present a number of important limitations. This pilot study aimed to compare the CEs and CSs of N = 17 incarcerated child abusers and N = 12 controls using observer-rated methods, namely the Cognitive Error Rating Scale (CERS; Drapeau et al., 2005) and the Coping Action Pattern Rating Scale (CAPRS; Perry, Drapeau, & Dunkley, 2005). Results showed that child molesters presented more cognitive errors, in particular positive selective abstraction, and lower coping functioning, such as escape strategies. Treatment and research implications, including the use of observer-rated methods, are discussed.

Routes of administration of cannabis used for nonmedical purposes and associations with patterns of drug use.

PURPOSE: Little is known regarding cannabis administration routes for nonmedical use-that is, its delivery methods (e.g., joints, water pipe, food). Therefore, we examined the prevalence rates of different cannabis delivery methods and assessed the relationship of the distinct administration routes with problematic drug use. Subgroups of cannabis users were also investigated (i.e., "pure" cannabis users, previously described as employing a harmless route of administration, and water pipe users, previously described as using a harmful route of administration). METHODS: As part of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, 1,763 cannabis users answered questions concerning their drug use (i.e., routes of administration, problematic cannabis use, other illicit drug use). Descriptive statistics, latent class analysis, correlations and t-tests were assessed. RESULTS: The main administration route was "joints with tobacco"; other routes of administration had prevalence rates from 23.99% to 38.23%. In addition, increasing the number of administration routes was associated with more problematic cannabis use, as well as heavier illicit drug use. Water pipes without tobacco were especially linked to heavy drug use patterns, whereas "pure" cannabis use seemed less harmful. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlighted that diversification in routes of administration can be associated with heavier illicit drug use. This was especially true for water pipe users, whereas "pure" cannabis users, who did not mix cannabis with tobacco, were an exception. Indeed, these results may be useful for future preventive programs, which may need to focus on those who have diversified routes of administration for cannabis.

The new EASL guidelines for the management of chronic hepatitis B infection adapted for Swiss physicians.

Since the arrival of several new antivirals and due to the growing molecular and clinical knowledge of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, therapy of hepatitis B has become complex. Clinical guidelines aim at streamlining medical attitudes: in this respect, the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) recently issued clinical practice guidelines for the management of chronic hepatitis B. Guidelines made by international experts need however to be adapted to local health care systems. Here, we summarise the EASL guidelines with some minor modifications in order to be compatible with the particular Swiss situation, while discussing in more detail some aspects. Chronic hepatitis B is a complex disease with several phases where host and viral factors interact: the features of this continuous interplay need to be evaluated when choosing the most appropriate treatment. The EASL guidelines recommend, as first-line agents, using the most potent antivirals available with the optimal resistance profile, in order to abate HBV DNA as rapidly and as sustainably as possible. Once therapy has been started, the infection evolves and resistant viral strains may emerge. Rescue therapy needs to be started early with more potent agents lacking cross-resistance.