Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

A study of the cambial zone and conductive phloem of common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using an image analysis method. I. Influence of tree age on the structure

Quantification is a major problem when using histology to study the influence of ecological factors on tree structure. This paper presents a method to prepare and to analyse transverse sections of cambial zone and of conductive phloem in bark samples. The following paper (II) presents the automated measurement procedure. Part I here describes and discusses the preparation method, and the influence of tree age on the observed structure. Highly contrasted images of samples extracted at breast height during dormancy were analysed with an automatic image analyser. Between three young (38 years) and three old (147 years) trees, age-related differences were identified by size and shape parameters, at both cell and tissue levels. In the cambial zone, older trees had larger and more rectangular fusiform initials. In the phloem, sieve tubes were also larger, but their shape did not change and the area for sap conduction was similar in both categories. Nevertheless, alterations were limited, and demanded statistical analysis to be identified and ascertained. The physiological implications of the structural changes are discussed.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

The attractiveness of nations in global competition : an empirical assessment of the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events, 1990-2012

This dissertation aims to investigate empirical evidence on the importance and influence of attractiveness of nations in global competition. The notion of country attractiveness, which has been widely developed in the research areas of international business, tourism and migration, is a multi-dimensional construct to measure a country's characteristics with regard to its market or destination that attract international investors, tourists and migrants. This analytical concept provides an account of the mechanism as to how potential stakeholders evaluate more attractive countries based on certain criteria. Thus, in the field of international sport-event bidding, do international sport event owners also have specific country attractiveness for their sport event hosts? The dissertation attempts to address this research question by statistically assessing the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events. Based on theories of signaling and soft power, country attractiveness is defined and measured as the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. This thesis proceeds to examine the concept of sport-event-hosting strategy and explore multi-level factors affecting the success in international sport-event bidding. By exploring past history of the Olympic Movement from theoretical perspectives, the thesis proposes and tests the hypotheses that economic, social and environmental attractiveness of a country may be correlated with its bid wins or the success of sport-event-hosting strategy. Quantitative analytical methods with various robustness checks are employed with using collected data on bidding results of major events in Olympic sports during the period from 1990 to 2012. The analysis results reveal that event owners of international Olympic sports are likely to prefer countries that have higher economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. The empirical assessment of this thesis suggests that high country attractiveness can be an essential element of prerequisites for a city/country to secure in order to bid with an increased chance of success.

A key transcription cofactor on the nascent sex chromosomes of European tree frogs (Hyla arborea)

We show that MED15, a key component of the transcription complex Mediator, lies within the nonrecombining segment of nascent sex chromosomes in the male-heterogametic Hyla arborea. Both X and Y alleles are expressed during embryonic development and differ by three frame-preserving indels (eight amino acids in total) within their glutamine-rich central part. These changes have the potential to affect the conformation of the Mediator complex and to activate genes in a sex-specific way and might thus represent the first steps toward the acquisition of a male-specific function. Alternatively, they might result from an ancestral neutral polymorphism, with different alleles picked by chance on the X and Y chromosomes when MED15 was trapped in the nonrecombining segment.

Detection of human growth hormone doping in urine: out of competition tests are necessary.

The misuse of human growth hormone (hGH) in sport is deemed to be unethical and dangerous because of various adverse effects. Thus, it has been added to the International Olympic Committee list of banned substances. Until now, the very low concentration of hGH in the urine made its measurement difficult using classical methodology. Indeed, for routine diagnosis, only plasma measurements were available. However, unlike blood samples, urine is generally provided in abundant quantities and is, at present, the only body fluid allowed to be analysed in sport doping controls. A recently developed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Norditest) makes it now possible, without any extraction, to measure urinary hGH (u-hGH) in a dynamic range of 2-50 ng hGH/l. In our protocol, untreated and treated non-athlete volunteers were followed. Some of them received therapeutical doses of recombinant hGH (Norditropin) for one week either intramuscularly (three increasing doses) or subcutaneously (12 i.u. every day). The u-hGH excretion after treatment showed dramatic increases of 50-100 times the basal values and returned to almost the mean normal level after 24 h. u-hGH was also measured in samples provided by the anti-doping controls at major and minor competitions. Depending on the type of efforts made during the competition, the hGH concentration in urine was dramatically increased. Insulin-like growth factor binding proteins and beta 2-microglobulins in urine and/or in blood could be necessary for the correct investigation of any hGH doping test procedure.

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea)

We developed 11 new microsatellite markers for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), and tested patterns of polymorphism in 54 adults (27 males and 27 females) from two ponds close to Lausanne (Western Switzerland). One marker was sex linked and two pairs displayed linkage disequilibrium. Comparisons of allele numbers with heterozygosity values support a stepwise-mutation model at neutral equilibrium, with mutation rates spanning nearly two orders of magnitude. These markers will prove useful for population genetic studies and fine-scale investigations requiring genetic assignment techniques.

The genetic consequences of hatchery-induced sperm competition in a salmonid

Supportive breeding is an important tool in conservation management, but its long-term genetic consequences are not well understood. Among the factors that could affect the genetics of the offspring is sperm competition as a consequence of mixed-milt fertilizations - which is still a common practice in many hatcheries. Here, we measured and combined the relevant factors to predict the genetic consequences of various kinds of hatchery-induced sperm competition. We drew a random sample of male Coregonus zugensis (an Alpine whitefish) from a hatchery program and quantified their in vitro sperm potency by integrating sperm velocity during the first minute after activation, and their in vitro milt potency by multiplying sperm potency with milt volume and sperm cell density. We found that not controlling for sperm density and/or milt volume would, at a constant population size, decrease the variance effective number of male breeders N-em by around 40-50%. This loss would decrease with increasing population growth rates. Partial multifactorial breeding and the separate rearing of in total 799 batches of eggs revealed that neither sperm nor milt potency was significantly linked to egg survival. Sperm and milt potency was also not significantly correlated to other potential quality measures such as breeding tubercles or condition factor. However, sperm potency was correlated to male age and milt potency to male growth rate. Our findings suggest that hatchery-induced sperm competition not only increases the loss of genetic variation but may also induce artificial selection, depending on the fertilization protocol. By not equalizing milt volume in multi-male fertilization hatchery managers lose relatively more genetic variation and give fast-growing males a reproductive advantage, while equalizing milt volume reduces the loss of genetic variation and favors younger males who may have fast sperm to compensate for their subdominance at the spawning place. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of asexuality via different mechanisms in grass thrips (thysanoptera: Aptinothrips).

Asexual lineages can derive from sexual ancestors via different mechanisms and at variable rates, which affects the diversity of the asexual population and thereby its ecological success. We investigated the variation and evolution of reproductive systems in Aptinothrips, a genus of grass thrips comprising four species. Extensive population surveys and breeding experiments indicated sexual reproduction in A. elegans, asexuality in A. stylifer and A. karnyi, and both sexual and asexual lineages in A. rufus. Asexuality in A. stylifer and A. rufus coincides with a worldwide distribution, with sexual A. rufus lineages confined to a limited area. Inference of molecular phylogenies and antibiotic treatment revealed different causes of asexuality in different species. Asexuality in A. stylifer and A. karnyi has most likely genetic causes, while it is induced by endosymbionts in A. rufus. Endosymbiont-community characterization revealed presence of Wolbachia, and lack of other bacteria known to manipulate host reproduction. However, only 69% asexual A. rufus females are Wolbachia-infected, indicating that either an undescribed endosymbiont causes asexuality in this species or that Wolbachia was lost in several lineages that remained asexual. These results open new perspectives for studies on the maintenance of mixed sexual and asexual reproduction in natural populations.

Conservation phylogeography: does historical diversity contribute to regional vulnerability in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea)?

Documenting and preserving the genetic diversity of populations, which conditions their long-term survival, have become a major issue in conservation biology. The loss of diversity often documented in declining populations is usually assumed to result from human disturbances; however, historical biogeographic events, otherwise known to strongly impact diversity, are rarely considered in this context. We apply a multilocus phylogeographic study to investigate the late-Quaternary history of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) with declining populations in the northern and western part of its distribution range. Mitochondrial and nuclear polymorphisms reveal high genetic diversity in the Balkan Peninsula, with a spatial structure moulded by the last glaciations. While two of the main refugial lineages remained limited to the Balkans (Adriatic coast, southern Balkans), a third one expanded to recolonize Northern and Western Europe, loosing much of its diversity in the process. Our findings show that mobile and a priori homogeneous taxa may also display substructure within glacial refugia ('refugia within refugia') and emphasize the importance of the Balkans as a major European biodiversity centre. Moreover, the distribution of diversity roughly coincides with regional conservation situations, consistent with the idea that historically impoverished genetic diversity may interact with anthropogenic disturbances, and increase the vulnerability of populations. Phylogeographic models seem important to fully appreciate the risks of local declines and inform conservation strategies.

Perceived competition explains regional differences in stereotype content of immigrant groups

This research investigates differences in the stereotype content of immigrant groups between linguistic regions. We expected that immigrant groups who speak the local language of a specific linguistic region would be perceived as more competitive within this region than in another linguistic region. Further, we expected these differences would underlie regional differences in stereotype content, albeit only for the warmth dimension. Predictions were tested in the two largest linguistic regions of Switzerland. As expected, in the German-speaking region, locals perceived German immigrants as more competitive and thus as less warm, whereas in the French-speaking region, locals perceived French immigrants as more competitive and, consequently, as less warm. So, paradoxically, immigrants with strong integration potential are particularly disliked because they are regarded as direct competitors.

Polymorphism at a sex-linked transcription cofactor in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea): Sex-antagonistic selection or neutral processes?

Nascent sex chromosomes offer a unique opportunity to investigate the evolutionary fate of genesrecently trapped in non-recombining segments. A housekeeping gene (MED15) was recently shown to lie on the nascent sex-chromosomes of the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), with different alleles fixed on the X and the Y chromosomes. Here we document a polymorphism (glutamine deletion) in the X copy of the gene, and use population surveys and experimental crosses to test whether this polymorphism is neutral or maintained by sex-antagonistic selection. Tadpoles from parents of known genotypes revealed significant discrepancies from Mendelian inheritance, suggesting possible sex-antagonistic effects under laboratory conditions. Quantitatively, however, these effects did not meet the conditions for polymorphism maintenance. Furthermore, field estimates of female genotypic frequencies did not differ from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and allelic frequencies on the X chromosome did not differ between sexes. In conclusion, although sex antagonistic effects cannot be excluded given the laboratory conditions, the X-linked polymorphism under study appears neutral in the wild. Alternatively, sex-antagonistic selection might still account for the fixation of a male specific allele on the Y chromosome.

First insights into the transcriptome and development of new genomic tools of a widespread circum-Mediterranean tree species, Pinus halepensis Mill.

Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) is a relevant conifer species for studying adaptive responses to drought and fire regimes in the Mediterranean region. In this study, we performed Illumina next-generation sequencing of two phenotypically divergent Aleppo pine accessions with the aims of (i) characterizing the transcriptome through Illumina RNA-Seq on trees phenotypically divergent for adaptive traits linked to fire adaptation and drought, (ii) performing a functional annotation of the assembled transcriptome, (iii) identifying genes with accelerated evolutionary rates, (iv) studying the expression levels of the annotated genes and (v) developing gene-based markers for population genomic and association genetic studies. The assembled transcriptome consisted of 48,629 contigs and covered about 54.6 Mbp. The comparison of Aleppo pine transcripts to Picea sitchensis protein-coding sequences resulted in the detection of 34,014 SNPs across species, with a Ka /Ks average value of 0.216, suggesting that the majority of the assembled genes are under negative selection. Several genes were differentially expressed across the two pine accessions with contrasted phenotypes, including a glutathione-s-transferase, a cellulose synthase and a cobra-like protein. A large number of new markers (3334 amplifiable SSRs and 28,236 SNPs) have been identified which should facilitate future population genomics and association genetics in this species. A 384-SNP Oligo Pool Assay for genotyping with the Illumina VeraCode technology has been designed which showed an high overall SNP conversion rate (76.6%). Our results showed that Illumina next-generation sequencing is a valuable technology to obtain an extensive overview on whole transcriptomes of nonmodel species with large genomes.