Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Estimating and explaining the effect of education and income on head and neck cancer risk : INHANCE consortium pooled analysis of 31 case-control studies from 27 countries

Low socioeconomic status has been reported to be associated with head and neck cancer risk. However, previous studies have been too small to examine the associations by cancer subsite, age, sex, global region, and calendar time, and to explain the association in terms of behavioural risk factors. Individual participant data of 23,964 cases with head and neck cancer and 31,954 controls from 31 studies in 27 countries pooled with random effects models. Overall, low education was associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (OR = 2·50; 95%CI 2·02- 3·09). Overall one-third of the increased risk was not explained by differences in the distribution of cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviours; and it remained elevated among never users of tobacco and non-drinkers (OR = 1·61; 95%CI 1·13 - 2·31). More of the estimated education effect was not explained by cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviours: in women than in men, in older than younger groups, in the oropharynx than in other sites, in South/Central America than in Europe/North America, and was strongest in countries with greater income inequality. Similar findings were observed for the estimated effect of low vs high household income. The lowest levels of income and educational attainment were associated with more than 2-fold increased risk of head and neck cancer, which is not entirely explained by differences in the distributions of behavioural risk factors for these cancers, and which varies across cancer sites, sexes, countries, and country income inequality levels. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Urgences vitales au cabinet médical: implications pour la formation et l'equipement du médecin de premier recours [Life-threatening emergencies at the office: implications for medical education and equipment of the primary care physician].

Every medical practitioner is confronted on a daily basis with emergencies. Among these, life-threatening emergencies can have disastrous consequences in term of morbidity and mortality; 22 cardiac arrests and 10 deaths were reported among the 1,650 Swiss practices during a 5 year period. The occurrence of life-threatening emergencies at the office necessitates, according to the type and place of the practice, the skills of the practitioner and the organization of his practice, the implementation of procedures, equipments (for example room equipped with a defibrillator, respiratory nebulizer, splints, emergency drugs) and specific continuous education programs that should be encouraged and made available to the whole medical corporation.

Heart transplantation: current practice and outlook to the future.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: The field of heart transplantation has seen substantial progress in the last 40 years. The breakthroughs in long-term survival were followed by a period of stagnation in the last decade. This review summarises current recommendations for the identification of candidates for heart transplantation and their immunological and non-immunological postoperative follow-up. RESULTS: The progress made in the treatment of patients with advanced heart failure has considerably changed the profile of candidates for heart transplantation. Patients are older, and the load of co-morbidities is more important requiring careful evaluation for candidacy. Long-standing research in the field of immunosuppression made available various drugs, which decrease the risk of acute allograft rejection and prolong survival after heart transplantation. Powerful new molecules are entering early phase clinical studies, suggesting further improvement in the near future. As a consequence, treatment of non-immunological co-morbidity after heart transplantation will gain in importance, however, the base of evidence guiding current recommendations is poor. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial progress in heart failure treatment and immunosuppression after heart transplantation has changed the profile of heart transplant recipients. The arrival of new molecules will provide additional alternatives for immunosuppressive treatment while studies have to address non-immunological treatment in order to improve long-term survival after heart transplantation.

Civil society organisations participating in ISO TC 228 and ISO TC 229: the INTERNORM project and its future

This paper presents the first results of the INTERNORM pilot project funded by the University of Lausanne (2010 - 2014) to support the involvement of civil society organisations (CSO) in two ISO technical committees (TC), the ISO TC 228 on "tourism and related services" and the ISO TC 229 on "nanotechnologies". It analyses how a distinct participatory mechanism can influence the institutional environment of technical diplomacy in which standards are shaped. The project is an attempt to respond to the democratic deficit attested in the field of international standardisation, formally open to civil society participation, but still largely dominated by expert knowledge and market players. Many international standards have direct implications on society as a whole, but CSOs (consumers and environmental associations, trade unions) are largely under-represented in negotiation arenas. The paper draws upon international relations literature on new institutional forms in global governance and studies of participation in science and technology to address three questions: to which extent do CSOs identify participation in standardisation as worth of their mobilisation? How is the pluralisation of knowledge and expertise supporting CSO position during the deliberation? To which extent can CSO access and influence standardisation beyond their consultative role? It argues that there are significant limitations to the rise of civil society participation in such global governance mechanisms. Despite high entry costs into technical diplomacy, participation is not so much a matter of upstream engagement, or of procedure and resources only, than of opportunistic CSOs mobilization, of distinct thematic incentives and concrete outcomes to be expected in standardisation arenas or in the broader use of international standards.

Assessing the sociology of sport: On sport organizations and critical knowledge

The purpose of this contribution is to analyse the trajectory, the challenges and the future of the sociology of sport on three levels: the internal dynamic within the specific sub-field of the sociology of sport, its interactions with sociology and sport sciences, and its relation with sport organizations. The paper notes that the changes of the trajectory of the sociology of sport, first leaning on the profession of physical education teacher and then to sport sciences, as important consequences. Because most of the sociologists specialized in sport are working in sport sciences departments, the most important consequence is the dependency on sport sciences rather than on sociology. Compared to other fields of sociology, it means challenging other sciences for recognition. The paper argues that to face the threat of a marginalization within the field of sport science, the future of sociology of sport could be to fight for an external recognition. Applying sociology could spread critical views that are necessary to sport organizations. It could also give sociologists access to very interesting data, which can help producing good research, and give it a greater legitimacy within sport sciences. However, it is a risky strategy because of the necessity for the sociologists to stay critical both on sporting organization and on their own work.

The role of geography and ecology in shaping repeated patterns of morphological and genetic differentiation between European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) from the Pyrenees and the Alps

Neutral and selective processes c an drive repeated patterns of evolu tion in dif ferent groups of populationsexp eriencing similar ecol ogica l gradients. In this paper, we used a combinat ion of nucl ear and mitochondrialDNA markers, as well as geometric morphometrics, to investigate repeated patterns of morphological andgenetic divergence of E uropean minnows in two mountain ranges : the Pyrenees and the Al ps. Europeanminnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) are cyprinid fish i nha bitin g most freshwater bodies in Europe, including those indifferent mountain r anges that could act as major geographical barriers to gene flow. We explored patterns ofP. phoxinus phenotypic and genetic di versi fication along a gradi ent of alti tude common to the two mountainranges, and tested for isolation by distance (IBD), isolation by environment (IBE) and isolation by adaptation(IBA). The results indicated that populations from the Pyr enees a nd the Alps bel ong to two well differentiated,reciprocally monophyletic mt DNA lineages. Substantial genetic differentiation due to geographical isolationwithin and between populations from the Pyrenees and the Alps was also found using rapidly evolving AFLPsmarkers (isolation by distance or IBD), as well as morphological differences between mountain ranges. Als o,morphology varied strong ly with elevation and so did genetic differentiation to a lower extent. Despitemoderate evidence for IBE and IBA, and therefore of repeated evolution, substantial population heterogeneitywas found at the genetic level, suggesting that selection and population specific genetic drift act in concert toaffect genetic divergence.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Olympic social responsibility : a challenge for the future

Social responsibility, especially in the fields of education, society and peace, is one of the cornerstones of the olympic ideal and strategic vision (contribute to building a better world through sport). The article reviews the literature on organizational social responsibility (OSR) and the relationship between sport/olympism and OSR in order to examine the conditions governing the implementation and success of the International Olympic Committee's strategic vision. Several ways in which the IOC could promote a more ambitious and better-integrated social strategy: revise its performance model, notably evaluate and present in a social responsibility report; promote the adoption of OSR initiatives and strategies within the Olympic System from the bottom-up, rather than from the top-down; share best practices in the different countries for promoting and developing "sport for all"; create a World Agency for Development through Sport, or partnering and funding the international platform on sport and development; creating a World Agency for the International Governance of Sport. Two possible scenarios for the future of Olympic responsibility are finally discussed: strategy of "small steps" and a more ambitious local and global social strategy through sport and olympism.