Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.

State power and protected areas: Dynamics and contradictions of forest conservation in Madhya Pradesh, India

The traditionally coercive and state-controlled governance of protected areas for nature conservation in developing countries has in many cases undergone change in the context of widespread decentralization and liberalization. This article examines an emerging "mixed" (coercive, community- and market-oriented) conservation approach in managed-resource protected areas and its effects on state power through a case study on forest protection in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. The findings suggest that imperfect decentralization and partial liberalization resulted in changed forms, rather than uniform loss, of state power. A forest co-management program paradoxically strengthened local capacity and influence of the Forest Department, which generally maintained its territorial and knowledge-based control over forests and timber management. Furthermore, deregulation and reregulation enabled the state to withdraw from uneconomic activities but also implied reduced place-based control of non-timber forest products. Generally, the new policies and programs contributed to the separation of livelihoods and forests in Madhya Pradesh. The article concludes that regulatory, community- and market-based initiatives would need to be better coordinated to lead to more effective nature conservation and positive livelihood outcomes.

High altitude journeys and flights are associated with an increased risk of flares in inflammatory bowel disease patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hypoxia can induce inflammation in the gastrointestinal tract. However, the impact of hypoxia on the course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate whether flights and/or journeys to regions lying at an altitude of >2000 m above the sea level are associated with flare-ups within 4 weeks of the trip. METHODS: IBD patients with at least one flare-up during a 12-month observation period were compared to a group of patients in remission. Both groups completed a questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 103 IBD patients were included (43 with Crohn's disease (CD): mean age 39.3 ± 14.6 years; 60 with ulcerative colitis (UC): mean age 40.4 ± 15.1 years). Fifty-two patients with flare-ups were matched to 51 patients in remission. IBD patients experiencing flare-ups had more frequently undertaken flights and/or journeys to regions >2000 m above sea level within four weeks of the flare-up when compared to patients in remission (21/52 [40.4%] vs. 8/51 [15.7%], p=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Journeys to high altitude regions and/or flights are a risk factor for IBD flare-ups occurring within 4 weeks of travel.

Old ferricrete landscape dismantling in Central Africa rain forest zone: formation of the present downslope iron accumulations.

Present downslope iron accumulations were investigated in the rainforest zone in southern Cameroon. Six clay and Fe-hydroxide dominated patterns have been identified and occur on the lower part of hill slopes. They can be subdivided in three different sequences, related to gentle, moderate or steep slopes. They are discontinuous with respect to the dismantling zone of the old ferricrete cap formed at Cretaceous period. They show a gradual development from a soft Fe-crust (carapace) to a vesicular facies that will, with time, cover the whole landscape again.

Do PES Improve the Governance of Forest Restoration?

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) are praised as innovative policy instruments and they influence the governance of forest restoration efforts in two major ways. The first is the establishment of multi-stakeholder agencies as intermediary bodies between funders and planters to manage the funds and to distribute incentives to planters. The second implication is that specific contracts assign objectives to land users in the form of conditions for payments that are believed to increase the chances for sustained impacts on the ground. These implications are important in the assessment of the potential of PES to operate as new and effective funding schemes for forest restoration. They are analyzed by looking at two prominent payments for watershed service programs in Indonesia-Cidanau (Banten province in Java) and West Lombok (Eastern Indonesia)-with combined economic and political science approaches. We derive lessons for the governance of funding efforts (e.g., multi-stakeholder agencies are not a guarantee of success; mixed results are obtained from a reliance on mandatory funding with ad hoc regulations, as opposed to voluntary contributions by the service beneficiary) and for the governance of financial expenditure (e.g., absolute need for evaluation procedures for the internal governance of farmer groups). Furthermore, we observe that these governance features provide no guarantee that restoration plots with the highest relevance for ecosystem services are targeted by the PES

Effect of added dead space on sleep disordered breathing at high altitude.

OBJECTIVE: Sleep disordered breathing with central apnea or hypopnea frequently occurs at high altitude and is thought to be caused by a decrease in blood CO(2) level. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of added respiratory dead space on sleep disordered breathing.¦METHODS: Full polysomnographies were performed on 12 unacclimatized swiss mountaineers (11 males, 1 female, mean age 39±12 y.o.) in Leh, Ladakh (3500m). In random order, half of the night was spent with a 500ml increase in dead space through a custom designed full face mask and the other half without it.¦RESULTS: Baseline data revealed two clearly distinct groups: one with severe sleep disordered breathing (n=5, AHI>30) and the other with moderate to no disordered breathing (n=7, AHI<30). DS markedly improved breathing in the first group (baseline vs DS): apnea hypopnea index (AHI) 70.3±25.8 vs 29.4±6.9 (p=0.013), oxygen desaturation index (ODI): 72.9±24.1/h vs 42.5±14.4 (p=0.031), whereas it had no significant effect in the second group or in the total population. Respiratory events were almost exclusively central apnea or hypopnea. Microarousal index, sleep efficiency, and sleep architecture remained unchanged with DS. A minor increase in mean PtcCO(2) (n=3) was observed with DS.¦CONCLUSION: A 500ml increase in dead space through a fitted mask may improve nocturnal breathing in mountaineers with severe altitude-induced sleep disordered breathing.

New insights in the pathogenesis of high-altitude pulmonary edema.

High-altitude pulmonary edema is a life-threatening condition occurring in predisposed but otherwise healthy individuals. It therefore permits the study of underlying mechanisms of pulmonary edema in the absence of confounding factors such as coexisting cardiovascular or pulmonary disease, and/or drug therapy. There is evidence that some degree of asymptomatic alveolar fluid accumulation may represent a normal phenomenon in healthy humans shortly after arrival at high altitude. Two fundamental mechanisms then determine whether this fluid accumulation is cleared or whether it progresses to HAPE: the quantity of liquid escaping from the pulmonary vasculature and the rate of its clearance by the alveolar respiratory epithelium. The former is directly related to the degree of hypoxia-induced pulmonary hypertension, whereas the latter is determined by the alveolar epithelial sodium transport. Here, we will review evidence that, in HAPE-prone subjects, impaired pulmonary endothelial and epithelial NO synthesis and/or bioavailability may represent a central underlying defect predisposing to exaggerated hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction and, in turn, capillary stress failure and alveolar fluid flooding. We will then demonstrate that exaggerated pulmonary hypertension, although possibly a conditio sine qua non, may not always be sufficient to induce HAPE and how defective alveolar fluid clearance may represent a second important pathogenic mechanism.

Respiratory nitric oxide and pulmonary artery pressure in children of aymara and European ancestry at high altitude.

Invasive studies suggest that healthy children living at high altitude display pulmonary hypertension, but the data to support this assumption are sparse. Nitric oxide (NO) synthesized by the respiratory epithelium regulates pulmonary artery pressure, and its synthesis was reported to be increased in Aymara high-altitude dwellers. We hypothesized that pulmonary artery pressure will be lower in Aymara children than in children of European ancestry at high altitude, and that this will be related to increased respiratory NO. We therefore compared pulmonary artery pressure and exhaled NO (a marker of respiratory epithelial NO synthesis) between large groups of healthy children of Aymara (n = 200; mean +/- SD age, 9.5 +/- 3.6 years) and European ancestry (n = 77) living at high altitude (3,600 to 4,000 m). We also studied a group of European children (n = 29) living at low altitude. The systolic right ventricular to right atrial pressure gradient in the Aymara children was normal, even though significantly higher than the gradient measured in European children at low altitude (22.5 +/- 6.1 mm Hg vs 17.7 +/- 3.1 mm Hg, p < 0.001). In children of European ancestry studied at high altitude, the pressure gradient was 33% higher than in the Aymara children (30.0 +/- 5.3 mm Hg vs 22.5 +/- 6.1 mm Hg, p < 0.0001). In contrast to what was expected, exhaled NO tended to be lower in Aymara children than in European children living at the same altitude (12.4 +/- 8.8 parts per billion [ppb] vs 16.1 +/- 11.1 ppb, p = 0.06) and was not related to pulmonary artery pressure in either group. Aymara children are protected from hypoxic pulmonary hypertension at high altitude. This protection does not appear to be related to increased respiratory NO synthesis.

On the use of mobile inflatable hypoxic marquees for sport-specific altitude training in team sports.

BACKGROUND/AIM: With the evolving boundaries of sports science and greater understanding of the driving factors in the human performance physiology, one of the limiting factors has now become the technology. The growing scientific interest on the practical application of hypoxic training for intermittent activities such as team and racket sports legitimises the development of innovative technologies serving athletes in a sport-specific setting. METHODS: Description of a new mobile inflatable simulated hypoxic equipment. RESULTS: The system comprises two inflatable units-that is, a tunnel and a rectangular design, each with a 215 m(3) volume and a hypoxic trailer generating over 3000 Lpm of hypoxic air with FiO₂ between 0.21 and 0.10 (a simulated altitude up to 5100 m). The inflatable units offer a 45 m running lane (width=1.8 m and height=2.5 m) as well as a 8 m × 10 m dome tent. FiO₂ is stable within a range of 0.1% in normal conditions inside the tunnel. The air supplied is very dry-typically 10-15% relative humidity. CONCLUSIONS: This mobile inflatable simulated hypoxic equipment is a promising technological advance within sport sciences. It offers an opportunity for team-sport players to train under hypoxic conditions, both for repeating sprints (tunnel configuration) or small-side games (rectangular configuration).

Hipertensión y edema pulmonar de altura. Rol de la disfunción endotelial y de la programación fetal [Pulmonary hypertension and lung edema at high altitude. Role of endothelial dysfunction and fetal programming].

High altitude constitutes an exciting natural laboratory for medical research. While initially, the aim of high-altitude research was to understand the adaptation of the organism to hypoxia and find treatments for altitude-related diseases, over the past decade or so, the scope of this research has broadened considerably. Two important observations led to the foundation for the broadening of the scientific scope of high-altitude research. First, high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE) represents a unique model which allows studying fundamental mechanisms of pulmonary hypertension and lung edema in humans. Secondly, the ambient hypoxia associated with high-altitude exposure facilitates the detection of pulmonary and systemic vascular dysfunction at an early stage. Here, we review studies that, by capitalizing on these observations, have led to the description of novel mechanisms underpinning lung edema and pulmonary hypertension and to the first direct demonstration of fetal programming of vascular dysfunction in humans.

Habitat fragmentation, ecology and sexual selection in forest bird species in Monteverde, Costa Rica

Abstract Forest fragmentation is often associated with local extinction and changes in species abundance patterns. The main topic of this thesis is the effect of forest fragmentation on birds in Monteverde, Costa Rica. This thesis also studies aspects of sexual selection and ecology of Long-tailed Manakins, Chiroxiphia Linearis. Chapter 1 investigates bird species assemblages in two degrees of forest fragmentation. It is shown that the distribution, abundance and diversity of forest bird species are strongly influenced by the amount of forest in the landscape matrix. Presence of cattle within the forest influences the presence of some bird species. The prevalence and intensity of ticks and blood parasites on birds in relation to fragmentation is described in Chapter 2. Overall tick prevalence is 3%. Understory birds are significantly more infested with ticks than species at intermediate heights. Tick prevalence on birds does not differ significantly between two degrees of forest fragmentation and individual tick loads tend to be higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. Infestations by the blood parasites Haemoproteus sp. was low except in white-eared ground sparrow, Melozone leucotis, that is 28% and is significantly higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. In chapter 3 results on the ecology and habitat movements of the Bare-necked Umbrellabird, Cephalopterus glabricollis, are presented. The abundance of umbrellabirds at high elevations during the breeding season coincides with the highest peak of fruit abundance. Birds leave the protected area during the non-breeding season moving to unprotected forest fragments. In chapter 4 ontogenetic changes in feather morphology through sexual maturity in Long-tailed Manakins are described. In adult males, rectrices length is positively correlated to testis volume. Changes in male morphology during ontogeny in the long-tailed manakin appear to be associated with their specific-display behaviours. Significant interpopulation differences in the morphology of Long-tailed Manakins are shown in chapter 5. These differences are more accentuated in morphological traits related to flight displays. A field experiment demonstrates that long rectrices impose flying costs for males and females. A reduction in flying ability was found to be strongest in males from a population presenting the highest degree of sexual dimorphism. Résumé La fragmentation des forêts est souvent associée avec des modifications dans l'abondance des espèces et des extinctions locales. Le thème principale de cette thèse est l'étude de l'effet de la fragmentation des forêts sur les oiseaux de Monteverde, Costa Rica. Elle décrit par ailleurs certains aspects de la sélection sexuelle et l'écologie du manakin à longue queue, Chiroxiphia linearis. Dans le Chapitre 1 je montre que la distribution, l'abondance et la diversité des assemblages d'oiseaux vivant dans la forêt sont fortement influencées pas le degré de fragmentation de celle ci. Par ailleurs, la présence ou l'absence de bétail dans les forêts influence la présence de certaines espèces d'oiseaux. Dans le chapitre 2 j'ai étudié la prévalence et l'intensité d'infestation par des tiques ainsi que la présence de parasites sanguins chez les oiseaux en relation avec la fragmentation des forêts. La prévalence globale de tiques est de 3 %, les oiseaux vivant au niveau du sol étaient plus souvent infectés par des tiques que les espèces se déplaçant à un niveau plus élevé. La prévalence de tiques sur les oiseaux n'était pas significativement différente entre les paysages avec différentes fragmentations. Les parasites sanguins du genre Haemoproteus sp. étaient présents à très basse fréquence à l'exception chez Melozone leucotis ou la prevalence était de 28% et significativement plus élevée chez les oiseaux vivant dans les forêts à forte fragmentation. Dans le Chapitre 3 je présente des résultats sur l'écologie et les mouvements entre habitats chez le "Bare-necked umbrellabird", Cephalopterus glabricollis. Cette espèce endémique du Costa Rica niche à haute altitude durant la période d'abondance des fruits et réalise une migration altitudinale vers des zones basses durant la saison de non reproduction. Dans le chapitre 4 je présente les changements ontogénétiques dans la morphologie du plumage des manakins à longue queue. Chez les mâles, les changements de morphologie semblent être associés avec leurs comportements de parade spécifiques. Dans le chapitre 5 je présente des différences morphologiques significative entre deux populations chez le manakin à longue queue et je montre que la capacité de vols chez les mâles est plus fortement influencée dans la population avec le degré de dimorphisme sexuel le plus prononcé.

Elemental (C/N ratios) and isotopic (δ15N(org), δ13C(org)) compositions of sedimentary organic matter from a high-altitude mountain lake (Meidsee, 2661 m a.s.l., Switzerland): Implications for Lateglacial and Holocene Alpine landscape evolution

The deposition of Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments in the high-altitude lake Meidsee (located at an altitude of 2661 m a.s.l. in the Southwestern Alps) strikingly coincided with global ice-sheet and mountain-glacier decay in the Alpine forelands and the formation of perialpine lakes. Radiocarbon ages of bottom-core sediments point out (pre-) Holocene ice retreat below 2700 m a.s.l., at about 16, 13, 10, and 9 cal. kyr BP. The Meidsee sedimentary record therefore provides information about the high-altitude Alpine landscape evolution since the Late Pleistocene/Holocene deglaciation in the Swiss Southwestern Alps. Prior to 5 cal. kyr BP, the C/N ratio and the isotopic composition of sedimentary organic matter (delta N-15(org), delta C-13(org)) indicate the deposition of algal-derived organic matter with limited input of terrestrial organic matter. The early Holocene and the Holocene climatic optimum (between 7.0 and 5.5 cal. kyr BP) were characterized by low erosion (decreasing magnetic susceptibility, chi) and high content of organic matter (C-org > 13 wt.%), enriched in C-13(org) (>-18 parts per thousand) with a low C/N (similar to 10) ratio, typical of modern algal matter derived from in situ production. During the late Holocene, there was a long-term increasing contribution of terrestrial organic matter into the lake (C/N > 11), with maxima between 2.4 and 0.9 cal. kyr BP. A major environmental change took place 800 years ago, with an abrupt decrease in the relative contribution of terrestrial organic material into the lake compared with aquatic organic material which subsequently largely dominated (C/N drop from 16 to 10). Nonetheless, this event was marked by a rise in soil erosion (chi), in nutrients input (N and P contents) and in anthropogenic lead deposition, suggesting a human disturbance of Alpine ecosystems 800 years ago. Indeed, this time period coincided with the migration of the Walser Alemannic people in the region, who settled at relatively high altitude in the Southwestern Alps for farming and maintaining Alpine passes.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.