Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Heated Optical Fiber for Distributed Soil-Moisture Measurements: A Lysimeter Experiment

An Actively Heated Fiber Optics (AHFO) method to estimate soil moisture is tested and the analysis technique improved on. The measurements were performed in a lysimeter uniformly packed with loam soil with variable water content profiles. In the first meter of the soil profi le, 30 m of fiber optic cable were installed in a 12 loops coil. The metal sheath armoring the fiber cable was used as an electrical resistance heater to generate a heat pulse, and the soil response was monitored with a Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) system. We study the cooling following three continuous heat pulses of 120 s at 36 W m(-1) by means of long-time approximation of radial heat conduction. The soil volumetric water contents were then inferred from the estimated thermal conductivities through a specifically calibrated model relating thermal conductivity and volumetric water content. To use the pre-asymptotic data we employed a time correction that allowed the volumetric water content to be estimated with a precision of 0.01-0.035 (m(3) m(-3)). A comparison of the AHFO measurements with soil-moisture measurements obtained with calibrated capacitance-based probes gave good agreement for wetter soils [discrepancy between the two methods was less than 0.04 (m(3) m(-3))]. In the shallow drier soils, the AHFO method underestimated the volumetric water content due to the longertime required for the temperature increment to become asymptotic in less thermally conductive media [discrepancy between the two methods was larger than 0.1 (m(3) m(-3))]. The present work suggests that future applications of the AHFO method should include longer heat pulses, that longer heating and cooling events are analyzed, and, temperature increments ideally be measured with higher frequency.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

The impact of insight in a first-episode mania with psychosis population on outcome at 18 months.

BACKGROUND: To explore whether poor initial insight during a first episode of mania with psychotic features was predictive of poor psychosocial and clinical outcomes at 18 months. METHODS: Secondary analysis was performed on data collected during an 8-week RCT comparing the efficacy of olanzapine versus chlorpromazine as an adjunct to lithium, and at 18-month follow-up. 74 participants were divided into three groups (no insight, partial insight, and full insight) according to the insight item from the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS). Differences between these three groups were examined at baseline and at 18 months on measures of symptoms (YMRS, HAMD-21, and CGI-S), and social and occupational functioning (SOFAS). Baseline differences between the three groups were determined using general linear models and chi-squared analyses. Group differences from baseline to 18-month follow-up were determined using repeated measures general linear models. RESULTS: At baseline there were significant differences between the three insight groups in terms of mania and functioning, but at 18 months all groups had improved significantly in terms of psychopathology, mania, depression and social and occupational functioning. There were no significant differences between the three groups at study completion with respect to these domains. LIMITATIONS: The study was limited by the lack of availability of a more detailed rating scale for insight, and it did not account for the duration of untreated psychosis (DUI). CONCLUSIONS: Poor initial insight during a first episode of mania with psychotic features does not predict poor clinical and psychosocial outcome at 18 months.

Caspofungin first-line therapy for invasive aspergillosis in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients: an European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer study.

Caspofungin at standard dose was evaluated as first-line monotherapy of mycologically documented probable/proven invasive aspergillosis (IA) (unmodified European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycosis Study Group criteria) in allogeneic hematopoietic SCT patients. The primary efficacy end point was complete or partial response at end of caspofungin treatment. Response at week 12, survival and safety were additional end points. Enrollment was stopped prematurely because of low accrual, with 42 enrolled and 24 eligible, giving the study a power of 85%. Transplant was from unrelated donors in 16 patients; acute or chronic GVHD was present in 15. In all, 12 patients were neutropenic (<500/microl) at baseline, 10 received steroids and 16 calcineurin inhibitors or sirolimus. Median duration of caspofungin treatment was 24 days. At the end of caspofungin therapy, 10 (42%) patients had complete or partial response (95% confidence interval: 22-63%); 1 (4%) and 12 (50%) had stable and progressing disease, respectively; one was not evaluable. At week 12, eight patients (33%) had complete or partial response. Survival rates at week 6 and 12 were 79 and 50%, respectively. No patient had a drug-related serious adverse event or discontinued because of toxicity. Caspofungin first-line therapy was effective and well tolerated in allogeneic hematopoietic SCT patients with mycologically documented IA.

Recent patterns in gastric cancer: a global overview.

Until the mid-1990s, gastric cancer has been the first cause of cancer death worldwide, although rates had been declining for several decades and gastric cancer has become a relatively rare cancer in North America and in most Northern and Western Europe, but not in Eastern Europe, Russia and selected areas of Central and South America or East Asia. We analyzed gastric cancer mortality in Europe and other areas of the world from 1980 to 2005 using joinpoint regression analysis, and provided updated site-specific incidence rates from 51 selected registries. Over the last decade, the annual percent change (APC) in mortality rate was around -3, -4% for the major European countries. The APC were similar for the Republic of Korea (APC = -4.3%), Australia (-3.7%), the USA (-3.6%), Japan (-3.5%), Ukraine (-3%) and the Russian Federation (-2.8%). In Latin America, the decline was less marked, but constant with APC around -1.6% in Chile and Brazil, -2.3% in Argentina and Mexico and -2.6% in Colombia. Cancers in the fundus and pylorus are more common in high incidence and mortality areas and have been declining more than cardia gastric cancer. Steady downward trends persist in gastric cancer mortality worldwide even in middle aged population, and hence further appreciable declines are likely in the near future.

A spatially explicit life cycle inventory of the global textile chain

Life cycle analyses (LCA) approaches require adaptation to reflect the increasing delocalization of production to emerging countries. This work addresses this challenge by establishing a country-level, spatially explicit life cycle inventory (LCI). This study comprises three separate dimensions. The first dimension is spatial: processes and emissions are allocated to the country in which they take place and modeled to take into account local factors. Emerging economies China and India are the location of production, the consumption occurs in Germany, an Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development country. The second dimension is the product level: we consider two distinct textile garments, a cotton T-shirt and a polyester jacket, in order to highlight potential differences in the production and use phases. The third dimension is the inventory composition: we track CO2, SO2, NO (x), and particulates, four major atmospheric pollutants, as well as energy use. This third dimension enriches the analysis of the spatial differentiation (first dimension) and distinct products (second dimension). We describe the textile production and use processes and define a functional unit for a garment. We then model important processes using a hierarchy of preferential data sources. We place special emphasis on the modeling of the principal local energy processes: electricity and transport in emerging countries. The spatially explicit inventory is disaggregated by country of location of the emissions and analyzed according to the dimensions of the study: location, product, and pollutant. The inventory shows striking differences between the two products considered as well as between the different pollutants considered. For the T-shirt, over 70% of the energy use and CO2 emissions occur in the consuming country, whereas for the jacket, more than 70% occur in the producing country. This reversal of proportions is due to differences in the use phase of the garments. For SO2, in contrast, over two thirds of the emissions occur in the country of production for both T-shirt and jacket. The difference in emission patterns between CO2 and SO2 is due to local electricity processes, justifying our emphasis on local energy infrastructure. The complexity of considering differences in location, product, and pollutant is rewarded by a much richer understanding of a global production-consumption chain. The inclusion of two different products in the LCI highlights the importance of the definition of a product's functional unit in the analysis and implications of results. Several use-phase scenarios demonstrate the importance of consumer behavior over equipment efficiency. The spatial emission patterns of the different pollutants allow us to understand the role of various energy infrastructure elements. The emission patterns furthermore inform the debate on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which applies only to pollutants which can be easily filtered and does not take into account the effects of production displacement. We also discuss the appropriateness and limitations of applying the LCA methodology in a global context, especially in developing countries. Our spatial LCI method yields important insights in the quantity and pattern of emissions due to different product life cycle stages, dependent on the local technology, emphasizing the importance of consumer behavior. From a life cycle perspective, consumer education promoting air-drying and cool washing is more important than efficient appliances. Spatial LCI with country-specific data is a promising method, necessary for the challenges of globalized production-consumption chains. We recommend inventory reporting of final energy forms, such as electricity, and modular LCA databases, which would allow the easy modification of underlying energy infrastructure.

Predictors of substance use reduction in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis cohort.

AIM: To assess the predictors of a significant decrease or cessation of substance use (SU) in a treated epidemiological cohort of first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHOD: Participants were FEP patients of the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre in Australia. Patients' medical files were reviewed using a standardized file audit. Data on 432 patients with FEP and baseline co-morbid substance use disorder (SUD) were available for analysis. Predictors of reduction/cessation of SU at follow up were examined using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In univariate analyses, a reduction/cessation of SU was predicted by baseline measures reflecting higher education, employment, accommodation with others, cannabis use disorder (CUD) only (rather than poly-SUDs), better global functioning and better premorbid social and occupational functioning, later age at onset of psychosis, and a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis. In multivariate analysis, CUD alone and better premorbid social and occupational functioning remained significant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing SUDs and social and occupational goals in people with FEP may offer opportunities to prevent SUDs becoming more severe or entrenched. Further longitudinal research on recovery from SU and FEP is needed to disentangle directions of influence and identify key targets for intervention.

Prevalence and predictors of suicide attempt in an incidence cohort of 661 young people with first-episode psychosis

OBJECTIVES: Studies investigating suicidal behaviour in psychosis rarely focus on incidence cohorts of first-episode patients. This is important, because patients who refuse study participation have higher rates of comorbid substance use disorders and longer duration of untreated psychosis as well as worse course illness, variables potentially linked to higher prevalence of suicidal behaviour. The aims of the present study were therefore to examine the prevalence and predictors of suicide and suicide attempt before and during the first 18-24 months of treatment. METHOD: A retrospective file audit of 661 patients was carried out. RESULTS: Six patients (0.9%) died by suicide, 93 (14.3%) attempted suicide prior to entry, and 57 (8.7%) did so during treatment. Predictors of suicide attempt were: previous attempt (odds ratio (OR)=45.54, 95% confidence interval (CI)=9.46-219.15), sexual abuse (OR=8.46, 95%CI=1.88-38.03), comorbid polysubstance (OR=13.63, 95%CI=2.58-71.99), greater insight (OR=0.17, 95%CI=0.06-0.49), lower baseline Global Assessment of Functioning Scale and Scale of Occupational and Functional Assessment score (OR=0.96, 95%CI=0.62-0.91; OR=0.98, 95%CI=0.95-0.99), and longer time in treatment (OR=1.05, 95%CI=1.03-1.08). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of suicidal behaviour was high, indicating that suicidal behaviour in incidence populations is higher than in non-epidemiological cohorts of first-episode patients. The rate of repetition of suicide attempt among the sample, however, was lower than expected, suggesting that specialist services can play a role in reducing suicide risk.

Global transcriptional programs in peripheral nerve endoneurium and DRG are resistant to the onset of type 1 diabetic neuropathy in Ins2 mice.

While the morphological and electrophysiological changes underlying diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) are relatively well described, the involved molecular mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated whether phenotypic changes associated with early DPN are correlated with transcriptional alterations in the neuronal (dorsal root ganglia [DRG]) or the glial (endoneurium) compartments of the peripheral nerve. We used Ins2(Akita/+) mice to study transcriptional changes underlying the onset of DPN in type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM). Weight, blood glucose and motor nerve conduction velocity (MNCV) were measured in Ins2(Akita/+) and control mice during the first three months of life in order to determine the onset of DPN. Based on this phenotypic characterization, we performed gene expression profiling using sciatic nerve endoneurium and DRG isolated from pre-symptomatic and early symptomatic Ins2(Akita/+) mice and sex-matched littermate controls. Our phenotypic analysis of Ins2(Akita/+) mice revealed that DPN, as measured by reduced MNCV, is detectable in affected animals already one week after the onset of hyperglycemia. Surprisingly, the onset of DPN was not associated with any major persistent changes in gene expression profiles in either sciatic nerve endoneurium or DRG. Our data thus demonstrated that the transcriptional programs in both endoneurial and neuronal compartments of the peripheral nerve are relatively resistant to the onset of hyperglycemia and hypoinsulinemia suggesting that either minor transcriptional alterations or changes on the proteomic level are responsible for the functional deficits associated with the onset of DPN in type 1 DM.

Impact of duration of untreated psychosis on pre-treatment, baseline, and outcome characteristics in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis cohort.

INTRODUCTION: To assess the impact of duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) on baseline and 18-month follow-up characteristics controlling for relevant confounders in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis (FEP) cohort. METHOD: The Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) in Australia admitted 786 FEP patients from January 1998 to December 2000. Data were collected from medical files using a standardized questionnaire. Data from 636 patients were analyzed. RESULTS: Median DUP was 8.7 weeks. Longer DUP was associated with worse premorbid functioning (p<0.001), higher rate of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (p<0.001), and younger age at onset of psychosis (p=0.004). Longer DUP was not associated with baseline variables but with a lower rate of remission of positive symptoms (p<0.001) and employment/occupation (p<0.001), a higher rate of persistent substance use (p=0.015), worse illness severity (p<0.001) and global functioning (p<0.001) at follow-up after controlling for relevant confounders, explaining approximately 5% of variance of remission of positive symptoms (p<0.001) in the total sample and 3% in schizophrenia-spectrum disorders excluding bipolar I disorder (p=0.002). Outcome was significantly worse when DUP exceeded 1-3 months. CONCLUSION: Avoiding pitfalls of non-epidemiological studies, DUP appears to be a modest independent predictor of prognosis in the medium-term. Results support the need for assertive early detection strategies.

Gait disturbances as specific predictive markers of the first fall onset in elderly people: a two-year prospective observational study

Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.

Hsp90 inhibition induces both protein-specific and global changes in the ubiquitinome.

Inhibition of the essential chaperone Hsp90 with drugs causes a global perturbation of protein folding and the depletion of direct substrates of Hsp90, also called clients. Ubiquitination and proteasomal degradation play a key role in cellular stress responses, but the impact of Hsp90 inhibition on the ubiquitinome has not been characterized on a global scale. We used stable isotope labeling and antibody-based peptide enrichment to quantify more than 1500 protein sites modified with a Gly-Gly motif, the remnant of ubiquitination, in human T-cells treated with an Hsp90 inhibitor. We observed rapid changes in GlyGly-modification sites, with strong increases for some Hsp90 clients but also decreases for a majority of cellular proteins. A comparison with changes in total protein levels and protein synthesis and decay rates from a previous study revealed a complex picture with different regulatory patterns observed for different protein families. Overall the data support the notion that for Hsp90 clients GlyGly-modification correlates with targeting by the ubiquitin-proteasome system and decay, while for other proteins levels of GlyGly-modification appear to be mainly influenced by their synthesis rates. Therefore a correct interpretation of changes in ubiquitination requires knowledge of multiple parameters. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD001549. BIOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Proteostasis, i.e. the capacity of the cell to maintain proper synthesis and maturation of proteins, is a fundamental biological process and its perturbations have far-reaching medical implications e.g. in cancer or neurodegenerative diseases. Hsp90 is an essential chaperone responsible for the correct maturation and stability of a number of key proteins. Inhibition of Hsp90 triggers a global stress response caused by accumulation of misfolded chains, which have to be either refolded or eliminated by protein degradation pathways such as the Ubiquitin-Proteasome System (UPS). We present the first global assessment of the changes in the ubiquitinome, the subset of ubiquitin-modified proteins, following Hsp90 inhibition in human T-cells. The results provide clues on how cells respond to a specific proteostasis challenge. Furthermore, our data also suggest that basal ubiquitination levels for most proteins are influenced by synthesis rates. This has broad significance as it implies that a proper interpretation of data on ubiquitination levels necessitates simultaneous knowledge of other parameters.

Repetitive Deliberate Fires: Critical Review of the Situation and Proposal of a Follow-Up Process and Systematic Analysis

Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.