Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Debris flows as a factor of hillslope evolution controlled by a continuous or a pulse process?

Flood effectiveness observations imply that two families of processes describe the formation of debris flow volume. One is related to the rainfall?erosion relationship, and can be seen as a gradual process, and one is related to additional geological/geotechnical events, those named hereafter extraordinary events. In order to discuss the hypothesis of coexistence of two modes of volume formation, some methodologies are applied. Firstly, classical approaches consisting in relating volume to catchments characteristics are considered. These approaches raise questions about the quality of the data rather than providing answers concerning the controlling processes. Secondly, we consider statistical approaches (cumulative number of events distribution and cluster analysis) and these suggest the possibility of having two distinct families of processes. However the quantitative evaluation of the threshold differs from the one that could be obtained from the first approach, but they all agree in the sense of the coexistence of two families of events. Thirdly, a conceptual model is built exploring how and why debris flow volume in alpine catchments changes with time. Depending on the initial condition (sediment production), the model shows that large debris flows (i.e. with important volume) are observed in the beginning period, before a steady-state is reached. During this second period debris flow volume such as is observed in the beginning period is not observed again. Integrating the results of the three approaches, two case studies are presented showing: (1) the possibility to observe in a catchment large volumes that will never happen again due to a drastic decrease in the sediment availability, supporting its difference from gradual erosion processes; (2) that following a rejuvenation of the sediment storage (by a rock avalanche) the magnitude?frequency relationship of a torrent can be differentiated into two phases, the beginning one with large and frequent debris flow and a later one with debris flow less intense and frequent, supporting the results of the conceptual model. Although the results obtained cannot identify a clear threshold between the two families of processes, they show that some debris flows can be seen as pulse of sediment differing from that expected from gradual erosion.

Practice guidelines for evaluation of Fever in returning travelers and migrants.

BACKGROUND: Fever upon return from tropical or subtropical regions can be caused by diseases that are rapidly fatal if left untreated. The differential diagnosis is wide. Physicians often lack the necessary knowledge to appropriately take care of such patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop practice guidelines for the initial evaluation of patients presenting with fever upon return from a tropical or subtropical country in order to reduce delays and potential fatal outcomes and to improve knowledge of physicians. TARGET AUDIENCE: Medical personnel, usually physicians, who see the returning patients, primarily in an ambulatory setting or in an emergency department of a hospital and specialists in internal medicine, infectious diseases, and travel medicine. METHOD: A systematic review of the literature--mainly extracted from the National Library of Medicine database--was performed between May 2000 and April 2001, using the keywords fever and/or travel and/or migrant and/or guidelines. Eventually, 250 articles were reviewed. The relevant elements of evidence were used in combination with expert knowledge to construct an algorithm with arborescence flagging the level of specialization required to deal with each situation. The proposed diagnoses and treatment plans are restricted to tropical or subtropical diseases (nonautochthonous diseases). The decision chart is accompanied with a detailed document that provides for each level of the tree the degree of evidence and the grade of recommendation as well as the key points of debate. PARTICIPANTS AND CONSENSUS PROCESS: Besides the 4 authors (2 specialists in travel/tropical medicine, 1 clinical epidemiologist, and 1 resident physician), a panel of 11 European physicians with different levels of expertise on travel medicine reviewed the guidelines. Thereafter, each point of the proposed recommendations was discussed with 15 experts in travel/tropical medicine from various continents. A final version was produced and submitted for evaluation to all participants. CONCLUSION: Although the quality of evidence was limited by the paucity of clinical studies, these guidelines established with the support of a large and highly experienced panel should help physicians to deal with patients coming back from the Tropics with fever.

Distal locking of femoral nails: evaluation of a new radiation-independent targeting system.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of a novel radiation-independent aiming device for distal locking of intramedullary nails in a human cadaver model. METHODS: A new targeting system was used in 25 intact human cadaver femora for the distal locking procedure after insertion of an intramedullary nail. The number of successful screw placements and the time needed for this locking procedure were recorded. The accuracy of the aiming process was evaluated by computed tomography. RESULTS: The duration of the distal locking process was 8.0 ± 1.8 minutes (mean ± SD; range, 4-11 minutes). None of the screw placements required fluoroscopic guidance. Computed tomography revealed high accuracy of the locking process. The incidence angle (α) of the locking screws through the distal locking holes of the nail was 86.8° ± 5.0° (mean ± SD; range, 80°-96°). Targeting failed in 1 static locking screw because of a material defect in the drilling sleeve. CONCLUSIONS: This cadaver study indicated that an aiming arm-based targeting device is highly reliable and accurate. The promising results suggest that it will help to decrease radiation exposure compared with the traditional "free-hand technique."

Evaluation of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for cardiovascular risk factors-correcting for the regression towards the mean effect.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for0 reducing cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) with short intervention, adjusting for regression towards the mean (RTM) affecting such nonexperimental study without control group. METHODS: A cohort of 4,198 workers (aged 42 +/- 10 years, range 16-76 years, 27% women) were analyzed at 3.7-year interval and stratified by each CVRF risk category (low/medium/high blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], body mass index [BMI], and smoking) with RTM and secular trend adjustments. Intervention consisted of 15 min CVRF screening and individualized counseling by health professionals to medium- and high-risk individuals, with eventual physician referral. RESULTS: High-risk groups participants improved diastolic BP (-3.4 mm Hg [95%CI: -5.1, -1.7]) in 190 hypertensive patients, TC (-0.58 mmol/l [-0.71, -0.44]) in 693 hypercholesterolemic patients, and smoking (-3.1 cig/day [-3.9, -2.3]) in 808 smokers, while systolic BP changes reflected RTM. Low-risk individuals without counseling deteriorated TC and BMI. Body weight increased uniformly in all risk groups (+0.35 kg/year). CONCLUSIONS: In real-world conditions, short intervention program participants in high-risk groups for diastolic BP, TC, and smoking improved their CVRF, whereas low-risk TC and BMI groups deteriorated. Future programs may include specific advises to low-risk groups to maintain a favorable CVRF profile.

Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage management: evaluation with reduced iodine volume at CT angiography.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the technical quality and the diagnostic performance of a protocol with use of low volumes of contrast medium (25 mL) at 64-detector spiral computed tomography (CT) in the diagnosis and management of adult, nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was performed outside the United States and was approved by the institutional review board. Intracranial CT angiography was performed in 73 consecutive patients with nontraumatic SAH diagnosed at nonenhanced CT. Image quality was evaluated by two observers using two criteria: degree of arterial enhancement and venous contamination. The two independent readers evaluated diagnostic performance (lesion detection and correct therapeutic decision-making process) by using rotational angiographic findings as the standard of reference. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for patients who underwent CT angiography and three-dimensional rotational angiography. The intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated to assess interobserver concordance concerning aneurysm measurements and therapeutic management. RESULTS: All aneurysms were detected, either ruptured or unruptured. Arterial opacification was excellent in 62 cases (85%), and venous contamination was absent or minor in 61 cases (84%). In 95% of cases, CT angiographic findings allowed optimal therapeutic management. The intraclass correlation coefficient ranged between 0.93 and 0.95, indicating excellent interobserver agreement. CONCLUSION: With only 25 mL of iodinated contrast medium focused on the arterial phase, 64-detector CT angiography allowed satisfactory diagnostic and therapeutic management of nontraumatic SAH.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital : predictive value of patient and process characteristics

RESUME: Introduction L'objectif de cette étude prospective de cohorte était d'estimer l'efficacité d'un processus de prise en charge standardisé de patients dépendants de l'alcool dans le contexte d'un hôpital universitaire de soins généraux. Ce modèle de prise en charge comprenait une évaluation multidisciplinaire puis des propositions de traitements individualisées et spécifiques (« projet thérapeutique »). Patients et méthode 165 patients alcoolo-dépendants furent recrutés dans différents services de l'hôpital universitaire, y compris la policlinique de médecine. Ils furent dans un premier temps évalués par une équipe multidisciplinaire (médecin interniste, psychiatre, assistant social), puis un projet thérapeutique spécialisé et individualisé leur fut proposé lors d'une rencontre réunissant le patient et l'équipe. Tous les patients éligibles acceptant de participer à l'étude (n=68) furent interrogés au moment de l'inclusion puis 2 et 6 mois plus tard par une psychologue. Des informations standardisées furent recueillies sur les caractéristiques des patients, le processus de prise en charge et l'évolution à 6 mois. Les critères de succès utilisés à 6 mois furent: l'adhérence au traitement proposé et l'abstinence d'alcool. Résultats Lors de l'évaluation à 6 mois, 43% des patients étaient toujours en traitement et 28% étaient abstinents. Les variables prédictrices de succès parmi les caractéristiques des patients étaient un âge de plus de 45 ans, ne pas vivre seul, avoir un travail et être motivé pour un traitement (RAATE-A <18). Pour les variables dépendantes du processus de prise en charge, un sevrage complet de l'alcool lors de la rencontre multidisciplinaire ainsi que la présence de tous les membres de l'équipe à cette réunion étaient des facteurs associés au succès. Conclusion L'efficacité de ce modèle d'intervention pour patients dépendants de l'alcool en hôpital de soins généraux s'est montrée satisfaisante, en particulier pour le critère de succès adhérence au traitement. Des variables associées au succès ou à l'échec à 6 mois ont pu être mises en évidence, permettant d'identifier des populations de patients évoluant différemment. Des stratégies de prise en charge tenant compte de ces éléments pourraient donc être développées, permettant de proposer des traitements plus adaptés ainsi qu'une meilleure rétention des patients alcooliques dans les programmes thérapeutiques. ABSTRACT. To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence, alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43% for treatment adherence and 28% for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow the identification of subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part III: Operational applications and evaluation.

The research reported in this series of article aimed at (1) automating the search of questioned ink specimens in ink reference collections and (2) at evaluating the strength of ink evidence in a transparent and balanced manner. These aims require that ink samples are analysed in an accurate and reproducible way and that they are compared in an objective and automated way. This latter requirement is due to the large number of comparisons that are necessary in both scenarios. A research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in forensic contexts. This report focuses on the last of the three stages of the research programme. The calibration and acquisition process and the mathematical comparison algorithms were described in previous papers [C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part I: Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 29-37; C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part II: Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 38-50]. In this paper, the benefits and challenges of the proposed concepts are tested in two forensic contexts: (1) ink identification and (2) ink evidential value assessment. The results show that different algorithms are better suited for different tasks. This research shows that it is possible to build digital ink libraries using the most commonly used ink analytical technique, i.e. high-performance thin layer chromatography, despite its reputation of lacking reproducibility. More importantly, it is possible to assign evidential value to ink evidence in a transparent way using a probabilistic model. It is therefore possible to move away from the traditional subjective approach, which is entirely based on experts' opinion, and which is usually not very informative. While there is room for the improvement, this report demonstrates the significant gains obtained over the traditional subjective approach for the search of ink specimens in ink databases, and the interpretation of their evidential value.

Liberties and constraints of the normative approach to evaluation and decision in forensic science: a discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions

At a time when disciplined inference and decision making under uncertainty represent common aims to participants in legal proceedings, the scientific community is remarkably heterogenous in its attitudes as to how these goals ought to be achieved. Probability and decision theory exert a considerable influence, and we think by all reason rightly do so, but they go against a mainstream of thinking that does not embrace-or is not aware of-the 'normative' character of this body of theory. It is normative, in the sense understood in this article, in that it prescribes particular properties, typically (logical) coherence, to which reasoning and decision making ought to conform. Disregarding these properties can result in diverging views which are occasionally used as an argument against the theory, or as a pretext for not following it. Typical examples are objections according to which people, both in everyday life but also individuals involved at various levels in the judicial process, find the theory difficult to understand and to apply. A further objection is that the theory does not reflect how people actually behave. This article aims to point out in what sense these examples misinterpret the analytical framework in its normative perspective. Through examples borrowed mostly from forensic science contexts, it is argued that so-called intuitive scientific attitudes are particularly liable to such misconceptions. These attitudes are contrasted with a statement of the actual liberties and constraints of probability and decision theory and the view according to which this theory is normative.

Official positions of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) on DXA evaluation in children and adolescents.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most widely used technical instrument for evaluating bone mineral content (BMC) and density (BMD) in patients of all ages. However, its use in pediatric patients, during growth and development, poses a much more complex problem in terms of both the technical aspects and the interpretation of the results. For the adults population, there is a well-defined term of reference: the peak value of BMD attained by young healthy subjects at the end of skeletal growth. During childhood and adolescence, the comparison can be made only with healthy subjects of the same age, sex and ethnicity, but the situation is compounded by the wide individual variation in the process of skeletal growth (pubertal development, hormone action, body size and bone size). The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) organized a Pediatric Position Development Conference to discuss the specific problems of bone densitometry in growing subjects (9-19 years of age) and to provide essential recommendations for its clinical use.

A prospective evaluation of ultrasound as a diagnostic tool in acute microcrystalline arthritis.

INTRODUCTION: The performance of ultrasound (US) in the diagnosis of acute gouty (MSU) arthritis and calcium pyrophosphate (CPP) arthritis is not yet well defined. Most studies evaluated US as the basis for diagnosing crystal arthritis in already diagnosed cases of gout and few prospective studies have been performed. METHODS: One hundred nine consecutive patients who presented an acute arthritis of suspected microcrystalline arthritis were prospectively included. All underwent an US of the symptomatic joints(s) and of knees, ankles and 1(st) metatarsopalangeal (MTP) joints by a rheumatologist "blinded" to the clinical history. 92 also had standard X-rays. Crystal identification was the gold standard. RESULTS: Fifty-one patients had MSU, 28 CPP and 9 had both crystals by microscopic analysis. No crystals were detected in 21. One had septic arthritis. Based on US signs in the symptomatic joint, the sensitivity of US for both gout and CPP was low (60 % for both). In gout, the presence of US signs in the symptomatic joint was highly predictive of the diagnosis (PPV = 92 %). When US diagnosis was based on an examination of multiple joints, the sensitivity for both gout and CPP rose significantly but the specificity and the PPV decreased. In the absence of US signs in all the joints studied, CPP arthritis was unlikely (NPV = 87 %) particularly in patients with no previous crisis (NPV = 94 %). X-ray of the symptomatic joints was confirmed to be not useful in diagnosing gout and was equally sensitive or specific as US in CPP arthritis. CONCLUSIONS: Arthrocenthesis remains the key investigation for the diagnosis of microcrystalline acute arthritis. Although US can help in the diagnostic process, its diagnostic performance is only moderate. US should not be limited to the symptomatic joint. Examination of multiple joints gives a better diagnostic sensitivity but lower specificity.

Translation and psychometric evaluation of a French version of the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the reliability and the factor structure of the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale - French version. BACKGROUND: The patient's perspective is essential when assessing risk for adverse events at hospital discharge. Developed in the USA, the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale is the only instrument that measures an individual's self-perception of readiness before leaving the hospital. A French version of the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale was developed and validated. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: A convenience sample of 265 older inpatients from four medical units was selected. The translation and cultural adaptation of the scale involved experts in gerontology and the French language and included back translation. The items were semantically evaluated and pretested in 10 older inpatients. The scale's psychometric properties were internally validated by using confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses. Reliability was assessed by examining the internal consistency of its items. RESULTS: Goodness-of-fit indices of the confirmatory factor analyses were not adequate, but reliability was acceptable (Cronbach's α = 0·80). Exploratory factor analysis of the French version provided results close to those described for the English version, with three similar subscales (physical and emotional readiness, coping with medical treatment and personal care), whereas the initially described Expected Support subscale was not identified in the French version. CONCLUSION: The Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale - French version appears to be partially consistent with its original English version, but requires additional adaptation to fully take into account the Swiss context and culture to achieve its original aim. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Assessing patient readiness for hospital discharge before leaving hospital could help nurses to improve the discharge planning process and achieve better patient preparedness and care coordination.

Evaluation du risque de récidive dans les expertises pénales: quels outils? Quets indicateurs? Quelles pratiques [Risk assessment in forensic psychiatric reports: what kind assessment instrument? What indicator? What practical?].

Here we present results of studies conducted by the Research Unit of Legal Psychiatry and Psychology of Lausanne about risk assessment and protective factors in the evaluation of violence recidivism. It aims to help experts in considering the relevance and use of tools at their disposal. Particular attention is given to the significance of protective factors and impulsive dimensions, as to the inter-raters process that leads to the final deliberations.

Eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (Churg-Strauss) (EGPA) Consensus Task Force recommendations for evaluation and management.

OBJECTIVE: To develop disease-specific recommendations for the diagnosis and management of eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (Churg-Strauss syndrome) (EGPA). METHODS: The EGPA Consensus Task Force experts comprised 8 pulmonologists, 6 internists, 4 rheumatologists, 3 nephrologists, 1 pathologist and 1 allergist from 5 European countries and the USA. Using a modified Delphi process, a list of 40 questions was elaborated by 2 members and sent to all participants prior to the meeting. Concurrently, an extensive literature search was undertaken with publications assigned with a level of evidence according to accepted criteria. Drafts of the recommendations were circulated for review to all members until final consensus was reached. RESULTS: Twenty-two recommendations concerning the diagnosis, initial evaluation, treatment and monitoring of EGPA patients were established. The relevant published information on EGPA, antineutrophil-cytoplasm antibody-associated vasculitides, hypereosinophilic syndromes and eosinophilic asthma supporting these recommendations was also reviewed. DISCUSSION: These recommendations aim to give physicians tools for effective and individual management of EGPA patients, and to provide guidance for further targeted research.

The new final Clinical Skills examination in human medicine in Switzerland: Essential steps of exam development, implementation and evaluation, and central insights from the perspective of the national Working Group.

OBJECTIVE: Since 2011, the new national final examination in human medicine has been implemented in Switzerland, with a structured clinical-practical part in the OSCE format. From the perspective of the national Working Group, the current article describes the essential steps in the development, implementation and evaluation of the Federal Licensing Examination Clinical Skills (FLE CS) as well as the applied quality assurance measures. Finally, central insights gained from the last years are presented. METHODS: Based on the principles of action research, the FLE CS is in a constant state of further development. On the foundation of systematically documented experiences from previous years, in the Working Group, unresolved questions are discussed and resulting solution approaches are substantiated (planning), implemented in the examination (implementation) and subsequently evaluated (reflection). The presented results are the product of this iterative procedure. RESULTS: The FLE CS is created by experts from all faculties and subject areas in a multistage process. The examination is administered in German and French on a decentralised basis and consists of twelve interdisciplinary stations per candidate. As important quality assurance measures, the national Review Board (content validation) and the meetings of the standardised patient trainers (standardisation) have proven worthwhile. The statistical analyses show good measurement reliability and support the construct validity of the examination. Among the central insights of the past years, it has been established that the consistent implementation of the principles of action research contributes to the successful further development of the examination. CONCLUSION: The centrally coordinated, collaborative-iterative process, incorporating experts from all faculties, makes a fundamental contribution to the quality of the FLE CS. The processes and insights presented here can be useful for others planning a similar undertaking.