Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

An innovative and shared methodology for event reconstruction using images in forensic science

This study presents an innovative methodology for forensic science image analysis for event reconstruction. The methodology is based on experiences from real cases. It provides real added value to technical guidelines such as standard operating procedures (SOPs) and enriches the community of practices at stake in this field. This bottom-up solution outlines the many facets of analysis and the complexity of the decision-making process. Additionally, the methodology provides a backbone for articulating more detailed and technical procedures and SOPs. It emerged from a grounded theory approach; data from individual and collective interviews with eight Swiss and nine European forensic image analysis experts were collected and interpreted in a continuous, circular and reflexive manner. Throughout the process of conducting interviews and panel discussions, similarities and discrepancies were discussed in detail to provide a comprehensive picture of practices and points of view and to ultimately formalise shared know-how. Our contribution sheds light on the complexity of the choices, actions and interactions along the path of data collection and analysis, enhancing both the researchers' and participants' reflexivity.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Normalisation informatique et marchés de services : le cas du XML

Extensible Markup Language (XML) is a generic computing language that provides an outstanding case study of commodification of service standards. The development of this language in the late 1990s marked a shift in computer science as its extensibility let store and share any kind of data. Many office suites software rely on it. The chapter highlights how the largest multinational firms pay special attention to gain a recognised international standard for such a major technological innovation. It argues that standardisation processes affects market structures and can lead to market capture. By examining how a strategic use of standardisation arenas can generate profits, it shows that Microsoft succeeded in making its own technical solution a recognised ISO standard in 2008, while the same arena already adopted two years earlier the open source standard set by IBM and Sun Microsystems. Yet XML standardisation also helped to establish a distinct model of information technology services at the expense of Microsoft monopoly on proprietary software

Social sensing for psychology: Automated interpersonal behavior assessment

In this article, we show how the use of state-of-the-art methods in computer science based on machine perception and learning allows the unobtrusive capture and automated analysis of interpersonal behavior in real time (social sensing). Given the high ecological validity of the behavioral sensing, the ease of behavioral-cue extraction for large groups over long observation periods in the field, the possibility of investigating completely new research questions, and the ability to provide people with immediate feedback on behavior, social sensing will fundamentally impact psychology.