62 resultados para Database search Evidential value Bayesian decision theory Influence diagrams


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Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situa-tions involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hy-potheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.

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Research projects aimed at proposing fingerprint statistical models based on the likelihood ratio framework have shown that low quality finger impressions left on crime scenes may have significant evidential value. These impressions are currently either not recovered, considered to be of no value when first analyzed by fingerprint examiners, or lead to inconclusive results when compared to control prints. There are growing concerns within the fingerprint community that recovering and examining these low quality impressions will result in a significant increase of the workload of fingerprint units and ultimately of the number of backlogged cases. This study was designed to measure the number of impressions currently not recovered or not considered for examination, and to assess the usefulness of these impressions in terms of the number of additional detections that would result from their examination.

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This paper presents a statistical model for the quantification of the weight of fingerprint evidence. Contrarily to previous models (generative and score-based models), our model proposes to estimate the probability distributions of spatial relationships, directions and types of minutiae observed on fingerprints for any given fingermark. Our model is relying on an AFIS algorithm provided by 3M Cogent and on a dataset of more than 4,000,000 fingerprints to represent a sample from a relevant population of potential sources. The performance of our model was tested using several hundreds of minutiae configurations observed on a set of 565 fingermarks. In particular, the effects of various sub-populations of fingers (i.e., finger number, finger general pattern) on the expected evidential value of our test configurations were investigated. The performance of our model indicates that the spatial relationship between minutiae carries more evidential weight than their type or direction. Our results also indicate that the AFIS component of our model directly enables us to assign weight to fingerprint evidence without the need for the additional layer of complex statistical modeling involved by the estimation of the probability distributions of fingerprint features. In fact, it seems that the AFIS component is more sensitive to the sub-population effects than the other components of the model. Overall, the data generated during this research project contributes to support the idea that fingerprint evidence is a valuable forensic tool for the identification of individuals.

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Changes in human lives are studied in psychology, sociology, and adjacent fields as outcomes of developmental processes, institutional regulations and policies, culturally and normatively structured life courses, or empirical accounts. However, such studies have used a wide range of complementary, but often divergent, concepts. This review has two aims. First, we report on the structure that has emerged from scientific life course research by focusing on abstracts from longitudinal and life course studies beginning with the year 2000. Second, we provide a sense of the disciplinary diversity of the field and assess the value of the concept of 'vulnerability' as a heuristic tool for studying human lives. Applying correspondence analysis to 10,632 scientific abstracts, we find a disciplinary divide between psychology and sociology, and observe indications of both similarities of-and differences between-studies, driven at least partly by the data and methods employed. We also find that vulnerability takes a central position in this scientific field, which leads us to suggest several reasons to see value in pursuing theory development for longitudinal and life course studies in this direction.

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The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

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Abstract : In the subject of fingerprints, the rise of computers tools made it possible to create powerful automated search algorithms. These algorithms allow, inter alia, to compare a fingermark to a fingerprint database and therefore to establish a link between the mark and a known source. With the growth of the capacities of these systems and of data storage, as well as increasing collaboration between police services on the international level, the size of these databases increases. The current challenge for the field of fingerprint identification consists of the growth of these databases, which makes it possible to find impressions that are very similar but coming from distinct fingers. However and simultaneously, this data and these systems allow a description of the variability between different impressions from a same finger and between impressions from different fingers. This statistical description of the withinand between-finger variabilities computed on the basis of minutiae and their relative positions can then be utilized in a statistical approach to interpretation. The computation of a likelihood ratio, employing simultaneously the comparison between the mark and the print of the case, the within-variability of the suspects' finger and the between-variability of the mark with respect to a database, can then be based on representative data. Thus, these data allow an evaluation which may be more detailed than that obtained by the application of rules established long before the advent of these large databases or by the specialists experience. The goal of the present thesis is to evaluate likelihood ratios, computed based on the scores of an automated fingerprint identification system when the source of the tested and compared marks is known. These ratios must support the hypothesis which it is known to be true. Moreover, they should support this hypothesis more and more strongly with the addition of information in the form of additional minutiae. For the modeling of within- and between-variability, the necessary data were defined, and acquired for one finger of a first donor, and two fingers of a second donor. The database used for between-variability includes approximately 600000 inked prints. The minimal number of observations necessary for a robust estimation was determined for the two distributions used. Factors which influence these distributions were also analyzed: the number of minutiae included in the configuration and the configuration as such for both distributions, as well as the finger number and the general pattern for between-variability, and the orientation of the minutiae for within-variability. In the present study, the only factor for which no influence has been shown is the orientation of minutiae The results show that the likelihood ratios resulting from the use of the scores of an AFIS can be used for evaluation. Relatively low rates of likelihood ratios supporting the hypothesis known to be false have been obtained. The maximum rate of likelihood ratios supporting the hypothesis that the two impressions were left by the same finger when the impressions came from different fingers obtained is of 5.2 %, for a configuration of 6 minutiae. When a 7th then an 8th minutia are added, this rate lowers to 3.2 %, then to 0.8 %. In parallel, for these same configurations, the likelihood ratios obtained are on average of the order of 100,1000, and 10000 for 6,7 and 8 minutiae when the two impressions come from the same finger. These likelihood ratios can therefore be an important aid for decision making. Both positive evolutions linked to the addition of minutiae (a drop in the rates of likelihood ratios which can lead to an erroneous decision and an increase in the value of the likelihood ratio) were observed in a systematic way within the framework of the study. Approximations based on 3 scores for within-variability and on 10 scores for between-variability were found, and showed satisfactory results. Résumé : Dans le domaine des empreintes digitales, l'essor des outils informatisés a permis de créer de puissants algorithmes de recherche automatique. Ces algorithmes permettent, entre autres, de comparer une trace à une banque de données d'empreintes digitales de source connue. Ainsi, le lien entre la trace et l'une de ces sources peut être établi. Avec la croissance des capacités de ces systèmes, des potentiels de stockage de données, ainsi qu'avec une collaboration accrue au niveau international entre les services de police, la taille des banques de données augmente. Le défi actuel pour le domaine de l'identification par empreintes digitales consiste en la croissance de ces banques de données, qui peut permettre de trouver des impressions très similaires mais provenant de doigts distincts. Toutefois et simultanément, ces données et ces systèmes permettent une description des variabilités entre différentes appositions d'un même doigt, et entre les appositions de différents doigts, basées sur des larges quantités de données. Cette description statistique de l'intra- et de l'intervariabilité calculée à partir des minuties et de leurs positions relatives va s'insérer dans une approche d'interprétation probabiliste. Le calcul d'un rapport de vraisemblance, qui fait intervenir simultanément la comparaison entre la trace et l'empreinte du cas, ainsi que l'intravariabilité du doigt du suspect et l'intervariabilité de la trace par rapport à une banque de données, peut alors se baser sur des jeux de données représentatifs. Ainsi, ces données permettent d'aboutir à une évaluation beaucoup plus fine que celle obtenue par l'application de règles établies bien avant l'avènement de ces grandes banques ou par la seule expérience du spécialiste. L'objectif de la présente thèse est d'évaluer des rapports de vraisemblance calcul és à partir des scores d'un système automatique lorsqu'on connaît la source des traces testées et comparées. Ces rapports doivent soutenir l'hypothèse dont il est connu qu'elle est vraie. De plus, ils devraient soutenir de plus en plus fortement cette hypothèse avec l'ajout d'information sous la forme de minuties additionnelles. Pour la modélisation de l'intra- et l'intervariabilité, les données nécessaires ont été définies, et acquises pour un doigt d'un premier donneur, et deux doigts d'un second donneur. La banque de données utilisée pour l'intervariabilité inclut environ 600000 empreintes encrées. Le nombre minimal d'observations nécessaire pour une estimation robuste a été déterminé pour les deux distributions utilisées. Des facteurs qui influencent ces distributions ont, par la suite, été analysés: le nombre de minuties inclus dans la configuration et la configuration en tant que telle pour les deux distributions, ainsi que le numéro du doigt et le dessin général pour l'intervariabilité, et la orientation des minuties pour l'intravariabilité. Parmi tous ces facteurs, l'orientation des minuties est le seul dont une influence n'a pas été démontrée dans la présente étude. Les résultats montrent que les rapports de vraisemblance issus de l'utilisation des scores de l'AFIS peuvent être utilisés à des fins évaluatifs. Des taux de rapports de vraisemblance relativement bas soutiennent l'hypothèse que l'on sait fausse. Le taux maximal de rapports de vraisemblance soutenant l'hypothèse que les deux impressions aient été laissées par le même doigt alors qu'en réalité les impressions viennent de doigts différents obtenu est de 5.2%, pour une configuration de 6 minuties. Lorsqu'une 7ème puis une 8ème minutie sont ajoutées, ce taux baisse d'abord à 3.2%, puis à 0.8%. Parallèlement, pour ces mêmes configurations, les rapports de vraisemblance sont en moyenne de l'ordre de 100, 1000, et 10000 pour 6, 7 et 8 minuties lorsque les deux impressions proviennent du même doigt. Ces rapports de vraisemblance peuvent donc apporter un soutien important à la prise de décision. Les deux évolutions positives liées à l'ajout de minuties (baisse des taux qui peuvent amener à une décision erronée et augmentation de la valeur du rapport de vraisemblance) ont été observées de façon systématique dans le cadre de l'étude. Des approximations basées sur 3 scores pour l'intravariabilité et sur 10 scores pour l'intervariabilité ont été trouvées, et ont montré des résultats satisfaisants.

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Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

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Background Decisions on limiting life-sustaining treatment for patients in the vegetative state (VS) are emotionally and morally challenging. In Germany, doctors have to discuss, together with the legal surrogate (often a family member), whether the proposed treatment is in accordance with the patient's will. However, it is unknown whether family members of the patient in the VS actually base their decisions on the patient's wishes. Objective To examine the role of advance directives, orally expressed wishes, or the presumed will of patients in a VS for family caregivers' decisions on life-sustaining treatment. Methods and sample A qualitative interview study with 14 next of kin of patients in a VS in a long-term care setting was conducted; 13 participants were the patient's legal surrogates. Interviews were analysed according to qualitative content analysis. Results The majority of family caregivers said that they were aware of aforementioned wishes of the patient that could be applied to the VS condition, but did not base their decisions primarily on these wishes. They gave three reasons for this: (a) the expectation of clinical improvement, (b) the caregivers' definition of life-sustaining treatments and (c) the moral obligation not to harm the patient. If the patient's wishes were not known or not revealed, the caregivers interpreted a will to live into the patient's survival and non-verbal behaviour. Conclusions Whether or not prior treatment wishes of patients in a VS are respected depends on their applicability, and also on the medical assumptions and moral attitudes of the surrogates. We recommend repeated communication, support for the caregivers and advance care planning.

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Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.

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Purpose: To compare the sexual behavior of adolescent males who do and do not watch pornographic websites. Methods: This study was presented as a school survey. Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) database, a survey including 7,548 adolescents age 16-20. The setting was post-mandatory schools in Switzerland. A total of 2,891 male students who connected to the internet in the last 30 days were enrolled and distributed into two groups: boys who deliberately watched pornographic websites in the last 30 days (n ¼ 942; 33%) and boys who did not (n ¼ 1,949; 67%). Socio-demographic characteristics; frequency of connection to the internet; sexual behavior parameters (having a girlfriend and if yes, for more or less than 6 months; having had sexual intercourse; age at first sexual intercourse; use of a condom at last sexual intercourse; number of sexual partners; having made a partner pregnant). Results: A logistic regression was performed using STATA 9.2. The only significant socio-demographic variable was having a low socioeconomic status (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.66); no difference was found for age and academic track between the two groups. Boys who watch pornographic websites were also significantly more likely to connect frequently to the internet (one day a week: AOR 1.75; several days a week: AOR 2.36; every day: AOR 3.11), to have had sexual intercourse (AOR 2.06), and to have had their first sexual intercourse before age 15 (AOR 1.48). The stability of the relationship with their girlfriend did not appear to have any influence on the search for pornography on the internet. Conclusions: About one third of boys in our sample report having accessed pornographic websites in the last 30 days, a proportion similar to other studies. Watching such websites increases with the frequency of connection to the internet and seems to be correlated with an earlier sexual activity debut among adolescent males. However, having had first sexual intercourse before age 15 is the only sexual risk behavior that seems to be increased when watching pornographic websites among boys. Further studies should address the causality of this correlation and the factors influencing the search for pornography on the web among boys, in order to explore some new ways of prevention about sexual risk behaviors. Sources of Support: The SMASH02 survey was carried out with the financial support of the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health and the participating cantons.

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The Baldwin effect can be observed if phenotypic learning influences the evolutionary fitness of individuals, which can in turn accelerate or decelerate evolutionary change. Evidence for both learning-induced acceleration and deceleration can be found in the literature. Although the results for both outcomes were supported by specific mathematical or simulation models, no general predictions have been achieved so far. Here we propose a general framework to predict whether evolution benefits from learning or not. It is formulated in terms of the gain function, which quantifies the proportional change of fitness due to learning depending on the genotype value. With an inductive proof we show that a positive gain-function derivative implies that learning accelerates evolution, and a negative one implies deceleration under the condition that the population is distributed on a monotonic part of the fitness landscape. We show that the gain-function framework explains the results of several specific simulation models. We also use the gain-function framework to shed some light on the results of a recent biological experiment with fruit flies.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of nursing on the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. DESIGN: Data were collected prospectively over a 1-yr period (study year) and compared with previously collected prospective data recorded in our chronic obstructive pulmonary disease database during a 5-yr period. SETTING: The medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university hospital. PATIENTS: Eighty-seven patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Fifteen patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease that required mechanical ventilation for acute exacerbation of their disease (study year), and 72 were patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from the previously collected data. INTERVENTIONS: The ICU course (duration of mechanical ventilation, mortality) was recorded, as well as several respiratory parameters (pulmonary function tests and arterial blood gases in stable conditions, and nutritional status), and they were compared with an "index of nursing." MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We developed an "index of nursing", comparing the effective workforce of the nurses (number and qualifications) with the ideal workforce required by the number of patients and the severity of their diseases. A value of 1.0 represented a perfect match between the needed and the effectively present nurses, whereas a lesser value signified a diminished available workforce. This index was compared with the complications and duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation. During the first 5 yrs, the duration of mechanical ventilation increased progressively from 7.3 +/- 8.0 to 38.2 +/- 25.8 days (p = .006). A significant inverse correlation between the duration of mechanical ventilation and the nursing index (p = .025) was found. In the sixth comparative year, the number of nurses increased (nursing index = 1.05) and the duration of mechanical ventilation decreased to 9.9 +/- 13 days (p < .001, yr 5 vs. yr 6). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of nursing appears to be a measurable and critical factor in the weaning from mechanical ventilation of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Below a threshold in the available workforce of ICU nurses, the weaning duration of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease increases dramatically. Therefore, very close attention should be given to the education and number of ICU nurses.

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Surgical decision-making in lumbar spinal stenosis involves assessment of clinical parameters and the severity of the radiological stenosis. We suspected that surgeons based surgical decisions more on dural sac cross-sectional area (DSCA) than on the morphology of the dural sac. We carried out a survey among members of three European spine societies. The axial T2-weighted MR images from ten patients with varying degrees of DSCA and morphological grades according to the recently described morphological classification of lumbar spinal stenosis, with DSCA values disclosed in half the assessed images, were used for evaluation. We provided a clinical scenario to accompany the images, which were shown to 142 responding physicians, mainly orthopaedic surgeons but also some neurosurgeons and others directly involved in treating patients with spinal disorders. As the primary outcome we used the number of respondents who would proceed to surgery for a given DSCA or morphological grade. Substantial agreement among the respondents was observed, with severe or extreme stenosis as defined by the morphological grade leading to surgery. This decision was not dependent on the number of years in practice, medical density or specialty. Disclosing the DSCA did not alter operative decision-making. In all, 40 respondents (29%) had prior knowledge of the morphological grading system, but their responses showed no difference from those who had not. This study suggests that the participants were less influenced by DSCA than by the morphological appearance of the dural sac. Classifying lumbar spinal stenosis according to morphology rather than surface measurements appears to be consistent with current clinical practice.

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BACKGROUND: Maintaining therapeutic concentrations of drugs with a narrow therapeutic window is a complex task. Several computer systems have been designed to help doctors determine optimum drug dosage. Significant improvements in health care could be achieved if computer advice improved health outcomes and could be implemented in routine practice in a cost effective fashion. This is an updated version of an earlier Cochrane systematic review, by Walton et al, published in 2001. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether computerised advice on drug dosage has beneficial effects on the process or outcome of health care. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group specialized register (June 1996 to December 2006), MEDLINE (1966 to December 2006), EMBASE (1980 to December 2006), hand searched the journal Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (1979 to March 2007) and the Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association (1996 to March 2007) as well as reference lists from primary articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials, controlled trials, controlled before and after studies and interrupted time series analyses of computerized advice on drug dosage were included. The participants were health professionals responsible for patient care. The outcomes were: any objectively measured change in the behaviour of the health care provider (such as changes in the dose of drug used); any change in the health of patients resulting from computerized advice (such as adverse reactions to drugs). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality. MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-six comparisons (23 articles) were included (as compared to fifteen comparisons in the original review) including a wide range of drugs in inpatient and outpatient settings. Interventions usually targeted doctors although some studies attempted to influence prescriptions by pharmacists and nurses. Although all studies used reliable outcome measures, their quality was generally low. Computerized advice for drug dosage gave significant benefits by:1.increasing the initial dose (standardised mean difference 1.12, 95% CI 0.33 to 1.92)2.increasing serum concentrations (standradised mean difference 1.12, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.82)3.reducing the time to therapeutic stabilisation (standardised mean difference -0.55, 95%CI -1.03 to -0.08)4.reducing the risk of toxic drug level (rate ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.70)5.reducing the length of hospital stay (standardised mean difference -0.35, 95% CI -0.52 to -0.17). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review suggests that computerized advice for drug dosage has some benefits: it increased the initial dose of drug, increased serum drug concentrations and led to a more rapid therapeutic control. It also reduced the risk of toxic drug levels and the length of time spent in the hospital. However, it had no effect on adverse reactions. In addition, there was no evidence to suggest that some decision support technical features (such as its integration into a computer physician order entry system) or aspects of organization of care (such as the setting) could optimise the effect of computerised advice.

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The interpretation of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) is based on a 4-factor model, which is only partially compatible with the mainstream Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement. The structure of cognitive batteries is frequently analyzed via exploratory factor analysis and/or confirmatory factor analysis. With classical confirmatory factor analysis, almost all crossloadings between latent variables and measures are fixed to zero in order to allow the model to be identified. However, inappropriate zero cross-loadings can contribute to poor model fit, distorted factors, and biased factor correlations; most important, they do not necessarily faithfully reflect theory. To deal with these methodological and theoretical limitations, we used a new statistical approach, Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM), among a sample of 249 French-speaking Swiss children (8-12 years). With BSEM, zero-fixed cross-loadings between latent variables and measures are replaced by approximate zeros, based on informative, small-variance priors. Results indicated that a direct hierarchical CHC-based model with 5 factors plus a general intelligence factor better represented the structure of the WISC-IV than did the 4-factor structure and the higher order models. Because a direct hierarchical CHC model was more adequate, it was concluded that the general factor should be considered as a breadth rather than a superordinate factor. Because it was possible for us to estimate the influence of each of the latent variables on the 15 subtest scores, BSEM allowed improvement of the understanding of the structure of intelligence tests and the clinical interpretation of the subtest scores.