Modelling habitat-suitability using museum collections: an example with three sympatric Apodemus species from the Alps

Aim, Location Although the alpine mouse Apodemus alpicola has been given species status since 1989, no distribution map has ever been constructed for this endemic alpine rodent in Switzerland. Based on redetermined museum material and using the Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), habitat-suitability maps were computed for A. alpicola, and also for the co-occurring A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus. Methods In the particular case of habitat suitability models, classical approaches (GLMs, GAMs, discriminant analysis, etc.) generally require presence and absence data. The presence records provided by museums can clearly give useful information about species distribution and ecology and have already been used for knowledge-based mapping. In this paper, we apply the ENFA which requires only presence data, to build a habitat-suitability map of three species of Apodemus on the basis of museum skull collections. Results Interspecific niche comparisons showed that A. alpicola is very specialized concerning habitat selection, meaning that its habitat differs unequivocally from the average conditions in Switzerland, while both A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus could be considered as 'generalists' in the study area. Main conclusions Although an adequate sampling design is the best way to collect ecological data for predictive modelling, this is a time and money consuming process and there are cases where time is simply not available, as for instance with endangered species conservation. On the other hand, museums, herbariums and other similar institutions are treasuring huge presence data sets. By applying the ENFA to such data it is possible to rapidly construct a habitat suitability model. The ENFA method not only provides two key measurements regarding the niche of a species (i.e. marginality and specialization), but also has ecological meaning, and allows the scientist to compare directly the niches of different species.

Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of angiotensin receptor blockade in healthy volunteers.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of angiotensin II receptor antagonists as a therapeutic class. DESIGN: Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling study. METHODS: The data of 14 phase I studies with 10 different drugs were analysed. A common population pharmacokinetic model (two compartments, mixed zero- and first-order absorption, two metabolite compartments) was applied to the 2685 drug and 900 metabolite concentration measurements. A standard nonlinear mixed effect modelling approach was used to estimate the drug-specific parameters and their variabilities. Similarly, a pharmacodynamic model was applied to the 7360 effect measurements, i.e. the decrease of peak blood pressure response to intravenous angiotensin challenge recorded by finger photoplethysmography. The concentration of drug and metabolite in an effect compartment was assumed to translate into receptor blockade [maximum effect (Emax) model with first-order link]. RESULTS: A general pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model for angiotensin antagonism in healthy individuals was successfully built up for the 10 drugs studied. Representatives of this class share different pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles. Their effects on blood pressure are dose-dependent, but the time course of the effect varies between the drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The characterisation of PK-PD relationships for these drugs gives the opportunity to optimise therapeutic regimens and to suggest dosage adjustments in specific conditions. Such a model can be used to further refine the use of this class of drugs.

Animal dispersal modelling: handling landscape features and related animal choices

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path.

The central role of mosquito cytochrome P450 CYP6Zs in insecticide detoxification revealed by functional expression and structural modelling.

The resistance of mosquitoes to chemical insecticides is threatening vector control programmes worldwide. Cytochrome P450 monooxygenases (CYPs) are known to play a major role in insecticide resistance, allowing resistant insects to metabolize insecticides at a higher rate. Among them, members of the mosquito CYP6Z subfamily, like Aedes aegypti CYP6Z8 and its Anopheles gambiae orthologue CYP6Z2, have been frequently associated with pyrethroid resistance. However, their role in the pyrethroid degradation pathway remains unclear. In the present study, we created a genetically modified yeast strain overexpressing Ae. aegypti cytochrome P450 reductase and CYP6Z8, thereby producing the first mosquito P450-CPR (NADPH-cytochrome P450-reductase) complex in a yeast recombinant system. The results of the present study show that: (i) CYP6Z8 metabolizes PBAlc (3-phenoxybenzoic alcohol) and PBAld (3-phenoxybenzaldehyde), common pyrethroid metabolites produced by carboxylesterases, producing PBA (3-phenoxybenzoic acid); (ii) CYP6Z8 transcription is induced by PBAlc, PBAld and PBA; (iii) An. gambiae CYP6Z2 metabolizes PBAlc and PBAld in the same way; (iv) PBA is the major metabolite produced in vivo and is excreted without further modification; and (v) in silico modelling of substrate-enzyme interactions supports a similar role of other mosquito CYP6Zs in pyrethroid degradation. By playing a pivotal role in the degradation of pyrethroid insecticides, mosquito CYP6Zs thus represent good targets for mosquito-resistance management strategies.

Influence of high cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic people on the duration and cost of sick leave: results of the ICARIA study.

AIMS: We investigated the potential influence of a moderate-to-high cardiovascular (CV) risk (CVR) (defined as a Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation model, or SCORE ≥ 4%), in the absence of an established CV disease, on the duration and cost of CV and non-CV sick leave (SL) resulting from common and occupational accidents or diseases. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a prospective cohort study on 690 135 workers with a 1-year follow-up and examined CV- and non-CV-related SL episodes. To obtain baseline values, CVR factors were initially assessed at the beginning of the year during routine medical examination. The CVR was calculated with the SCORE charts for all subjects. Moderate-to-high CVR was defined as SCORE ≥ 4%. A baseline SCORE ≥ 4% was associated with a higher risk for long-term CV and non-CV SL, as revealed by follow-up assessment. This translated into an increased cost, estimated at euro5 801 464.18 per year. Furthermore, pharmacological treatment for hypertension or hyperlipidaemia was significantly associated with longer SL duration. CONCLUSION: Moderate-to-high CVR in asymptomatic subjects was significantly associated with the duration and cost of CV and non-CV SL. These results constitute the first body of evidence that the SCORE charts can be used to identify people with a non-established CV disease, which might ultimately translate into more lost workdays and therefore increased cost for society.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Modelling changes in stable isotope compositions of minerals during net transfer reactions in a contact aureole: Wollastonite growth at the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (Death Valley National Park, USA)

One of the world's largest wollastonite deposits was formed at the contact of the northern Hunter Mountain Batholith (California, USA) in Paleozoic sediments. Wollastonite occurs as zones of variable thickness surrounding layers or nodules of quartzite in limestones. A minimum formation temperature of 650 degrees C is estimated from isolated periclase-bearing lenses in that area. Contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonates has produced mineral assemblages that are consistent with heterogeneous, and partly limited infiltration of water-rich fluids, compatible with O-18/O-16 and C-13/C-12 isotopic patterns recorded in carbonates. Oxygen isotope compositions of wollastonites in the study area may also not require infiltration of large quantities of externally-derived fluids that were out of equilibrium with the rocks. 8180 values of wollastonite are high (14.8 parts per thousand to 25.0 parts per thousand; median: 19.7 parts per thousand) and close to those of the host limestone (19.7 parts per thousand to 28 parts per thousand; median: 24.9 parts per thousand) and quartz (18.0 parts per thousand. to 29.1 parts per thousand; median: 22.6 parts per thousand). Isotopic disequilibrium exists at quartz/wollastonite and wollastonite/calcite boundaries. Therefore, classical batch/Rayleigh fractionation models based on reactant and product equilibrium are not applicable to the wollastonite rims. An approach that relies on local instantaneous mass balance for the reactants, based on the wollastonite-forming reaction is suggested as an alternative way to model wollastonite reaction rims. This model reproduces many of the measured delta O-18 values of wollastonite reaction rims of the current study to within +/- 1 parts per thousand, even though the wollastonite compositions vary by almost 10 parts per thousand. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling short-term ultraviolet exposure as an alternative to individual dosimetry

Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.

Use of drugs with more than a twenty-four-hour duration of action

AIM: To assess compliance with a drug regimen of two doses a day compared with one a day. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective crossover study was set up in a general practice environment to compare compliance on a drug regimen of once a day versus twice a day. Data were collected by electronic monitoring in 113 patients with hypertension or angina pectoris. All patients were prescribed slow-release nifedipine twice a day during the first month and then crossed to a single daily dose of amlodipine for another month. RESULTS: Compliance, defined as the proportion of days on which the correct dose was taken, improved in 30% of patients (95% confidence interval 19-41%; P < 0.001) when the patients were switched from twice a day to once a day, but at the same time there was a 15% increase (95% confidence interval 5-25%; P < 0.02) in the number of patients with one or more no-dose days. Approximately 8% of patients displayed low compliance, irrespective of the dose regimen. Actual dose intervals were used to estimate the extent and timing of periods with unsatisfactory drug activity for various hypothetical drug durations of action. CONCLUSIONS: The apparent advantage of a single daily dose in terms of compliance appears to be clinically meaningful only when the duration of activity extends beyond the dose interval in all patients.